It's more boring not posting than posting.

I been getting smashed lately, so here's what I learnt.
Bet on what you know rather than on what you think you know.


SALE Race 5

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $3.6
5 HUN CAN YOU $4.3
7 COCO LIGHTNING $4.8
4 SHE'S BOSSY $14
6 WHY NOT BOB $16
3 DR. ROCHELLE $16
1 DR. EVEREST $16
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $40

QUINELLAS
Boxed 2,5,7 for $4

These fellas should be up front early and would think maybe they can hang on.

I can't understand why those animals won't run like I expect them to

SALE Race 6

If the RED don't win this race by panels , I'll eat his barker eggs, because they'ld be so full of drugs it would be heaven.

FlexiTRIFECTA
1 - 6,7 - 6,7,3,4,2 for $10 worth

Well Number 1 won it ... at $1.10. Must be a lot of people checking your tips.

Seriously though, moeee do you try to target value or a high strike rate ? If you targetting value what edge are you considering acceptable before betting?

For instance if you target a dog at 33% that works out to $3. If you assume you have a statistical deviation of around 10% then you should assume that it is at value anything over 33% - 10% = 23% = $4.34 Anything less then that and you are kidding yourself as chance will affect your betting.

If you rate a dog at 12% chance then that is $8.33 And you assume you standard deviation is around 10% then your odds are only good on this dog at 12%-10% = 2% = $50.

I am not sure how you are doing your pricing but I would hope you read the above and use it. But first you need to know your statistical deviation for you ratings vs strike rate.

Good luck.

I have Race 8 having 4 animals contesting the lead.

4,5,1,3
A Box Quinella for a Dollar and a FlexiBox Trifecta for $6 worth

I'm figuring the Pink won't get around.
If it does, then I'm done

Looking at the race you rated:

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $3.6 = 29%
5 HUN CAN YOU $4.3 = 23%
7 COCO LIGHTNING $4.8 = 21%
4 SHE'S BOSSY $14 = 7%
6 WHY NOT BOB $16 = 6%
3 DR. ROCHELLE $16 = 6%
1 DR. EVEREST $16 = 6%
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $40 = 2%

I rounded above.

Above is a 100% market. Assuming your ratings are good (and I expect they are) I will assume you have a 10% deviation on strike rate.

So the new prices should be:

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $5.30 = 19%
5 HUN CAN YOU $7.70 = 13%
7 COCO LIGHTNING $9.10 = 11%
4 SHE'S BOSSY $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
6 WHY NOT BOB $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
3 DR. ROCHELLE $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
1 DR. EVEREST $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $100 = 1% = NO HOPE

Of these anything that is 1% is a no bet.

That leaves 2, 5 and 7 as bets. All of those were under the value odds on unitab so this race would be a no bet race using unitab odds. I checked Betfair advantage tool and found Number 2 was $8.34 and Number 5 was $9.38. So 2 bets at value on this race and a nice profit.

Now turn this on its head for laying.

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $2.55 = 39%
5 HUN CAN YOU $3.00 = 33%
7 COCO LIGHTNING $3.20 = 31%
4 SHE'S BOSSY $5.88 = 17%
6 WHY NOT BOB $6.25 = 16%
3 DR. ROCHELLE $6.25 = 16%
1 DR. EVEREST $6.25 = 16%
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $8.33 = 12%

Those are your acceptable laying prices. I don't follow the dogs anymore so I checked betfair advantage tool for the odds. It showed Number 7 was an acceptable lay at $2.88.

Hope this gives you some insight to value betting and how that race was profitable.

if you rate every race as good as you did Race 5 and you bet only with value you basically have a license to print money.

I managed to get $1.44 about the Red Runner in Race 6, so that turned out okay.

But I messed up badly in Race 8 by trying to rely on hope, after saying that I learnt not to do that

Wesmip.
I let the strike rate look after itself, but I feel most comfortable when I can get a collect every 3 or at most 4 races.
So I guess a strike rate of the usual Favourites average of 30% is fine with me.

But VALUE is where I am aiming at.
No particular Value.

I have no idea of Standard Deviation, and I figure the animals have even less.
Woof43 is a mathematical genius, and he still gets most races totally wrong.

It has been put to me that records need to be kept otherwise you simply have no idea where you are headed.
The trouble with that for me is that gambling then becomes a chore.
And if I wanted a tedious chore, then I wouldn't have given up my day job which was paying $30 an hour, a sum that I will probably never get again.

If you are interested in how I do my Prices, its just a trial and error thing.
I first of all make an effort to get the animals in Market Order, then I assign Margins between each animal, and play with the Margins until the Market looks about right.

I use an Excel Program to calculate the Odds based on the Margins between the animals.
It very simple , and is probaby very similar to how the Don Scott Ratings to Odds Tables works.

This is a well known cure for problem gambling. As soon as poblem gamblers have to keep records they find it tedious, especially when losing and move onto something else that is way more exciting like stamp collecting or collecting rocks.

If you treat this as a hobby that is fine. If you treat this as an investment then you need to know your statistics.

Good Luck with it.

Thanks Moeee for that vote of confidence, I'll tell the staff tomorrow morning to start looking for other work, send back the rebate cheques and start looking for a job.

Everyone is a Winner aren't they?
But when the attempt is made to post something to prove it on a Forum, ain't it funny how we all seem to fall flat on our ********.

I ain't been doing well at all lately, but am doing better than what I have been posting.
But people can only judge on the evidence.

If I had the personality of Wesmip or Woof43, then I'm sure I would be needing to hire staff as well.
But I don't , and that may, or may not be a good thing.

Wesmip, do you treat your gambling as a hobby, as an investment, or as a career?

Perhaps someone can suggest a self improvement type course where a Gambler can improve the persomality traits that are necessary to be successful, rather than handicapping or mathematical skills.

Catch you all tomorrow afternoon.
And thanks very much for the input.

I'm over and out for tonight.