Wednesday Greyhounds

[moeee]

I'm slowly decreasing the Number of animals in my database.
The idea is that will I Rate less races due to the amount of time I spend per race is really making a mess of my Life in that there is simply too much neglect happening.

If I was making a buck it wouldn't be too bad, but I'm not , so I'm slowly working my way to eliminate more and more races and probably end up wagering only on City Tracks and Provincial FreeForAlls.

The MEADOWS Race 8

2 CLASSIC CITI $3.2
6 SERENE PASSION $4.8
1 DRIPSTONE $5.3
4 TROYUDEN $10
5 SASSI JAY $11
3 PEDRO'S MOBILE $14
8 RULLA SHAW $40

I've got Classic Citi as leading all the way.
Serene Passion will chase it and could gobble it up, and Dripstone runs on for a placing.
The rest make up the numbers, and only benefit if there is problems with the top 3, which there could well be in a Race of this somewhat poor Quality animals.

Market Odds will decide whether I have a try in this.

[moeee]

1 CREDIT CRUNCHER $3.5
8 VEE BEST VANE $3.6
2 RICH SHIRAZ $6.1
6 WALTER BALE $7.4
7 BAHMAN BALE $16
3 HARISON BALE $25
4 RIVER MISS $40
9 SURE ON PEDRO $80

I've got Credit Cruncher leading, and possibly run down by Vee Best Vane.
Rich Shiraz and Walter Bale are the only other place chances.

[moeee]

How can you have the top 3 selections run the Trifecta and still LOSE?
And further, how can you have the top 4 selections run the First 4 and STILL LOSE?

I figure if this was gallops , I'ld be doing fine, but it ain't, and I ain't :(

I'll be doing the Daily Double Races for Ballarat tonight, and I'll be concentrating heavily on what it is I am doing whilst I'm doing it.

What tends to happen, when you study the Form, the early studies reveal the MOST IMPORTANT Stuff.
Then later you hone down to the minor Form Factors to get a more accurate result.

What I'm doing, is the more I study, the more significance I am attaching to the minor details and allowing them too much weight and that is destroying my good work.

But it won't be happening at Ballarat.
If I get Ballarat wrong, its because I am simply STOOPID and have no idea of handicapping Greyhounds and Luck is the only reason I have a Bank Account.

[moeee]

7 DYNA VIV $3.4
2 BUREAUCRAT $3.7
6 HEY KOBYBOYN $5
4 HIZ GOT CHILLS $10
8 ZLATAN $16
5 LINUS BALE $20
3 INSPIRATOR $33

These Odds are as Exact as I can get them.
One thing I'm fairly confident of it the Exacta will come from this lot.
7,2 - 7,2,6

[moeee]

2 PROFICIENT $3.9
5 RYKER BALE $6.7
1 CRUISY'S COURAGE $7.4
7 SISCO DIAMOND $7.4
8 WARD BOND $7.4
3 ELLA PATCHE $8.3
6 LEKTRA BILLY $14

As can be seen, VERY OPEN
Mainly because there are bolk good beginners here, and the permutaions of who gonna lead is Infinite.

The slowest of the animals appear to be the Favourite, and #6 Lektra Billy.
What I feel is a good bet is to Box Quinella 5,1,7,8,3.
Or better still the 3 roughest of those 5 animals.
And to be safe, a Trifecta of the Favourite to beat those 3 animals.

[lomaca]

7 DYNA VIV $3.4
2 BUREAUCRAT $3.7
6 HEY KOBYBOYN $5
4 HIZ GOT CHILLS $10
8 ZLATAN $16
5 LINUS BALE $20
3 INSPIRATOR $33

These Odds are as Exact as I can get them.
One thing I'm fairly confident of it the Exacta will come from this lot.
7,2 - 7,2,6Hi moeee if there were 3 place divies I'd go for No 3 INSPIRATOR 1*10 each way. As it is it's too risky with 2 place div.

I think it's the sleeper in the race, but you pretty well covered the main chances.

Good luck with it.

[moeee]

Hi moeee if there were 3 place divies I'd go for No 3 INSPIRATOR 1*10 each way.

I'll email you $10 for every animal it beats home, and you email me $5 for every animal that it don't.
Not that this Race is Class, but that animal is way up in Class, which sounds ridiculous when it is a Grade 4 and the others are Grade 5

And if it does do well, then there is another Lesson I need to learn - "WHEN YOU HAVE NO VISION OF AN ANIMALS RACES DON'T OPEN YOUR BIG MOUTH"

[lomaca]

I'll email you $10 for every animal it beats home, and you email me $5 for every animal that it don't.
Not that this Race is Class, but that animal is way up in Class, which sounds ridiculous when it is a Grade 4 and the others are Grade 5

And if it does do well, then there is another Lesson I need to learn - "WHEN YOU HAVE NO VISION OF AN ANIMALS RACES DON'T OPEN YOUR BIG MOUTH"Nah mate, if I were brave enough and sure enough I'd be putting money on it on the TAB.

It just bobbed up in my rating, as I said before I'm new to this and I respect your expertise. (that is ekspertise in case it's bleeped out)

Cheers

[moeee]

Nah mate, if I were brave enough and sure enough I'd be putting money on it on the TAB.

It just bobbed up in my rating, as I said before I'm new to this and I respect your expertise.


Its a fair bet, means it only needs to beat 2 animals home for money back.

Tell me about your ratings.
Do I guess right that the Best Time on the track has a lot to do with it?
And that the Consistency on same has a lot to do with it?

Can I give you a tip where I continue to mess up but shouldn't?
Have a look at that animals lifetime Number of starts.
Have a look at that animals number of wins.
Have a look at that animals number of placings.

What its saying is , either the animal is chasing the lead dogs, which means you are good about it running a place tonight, or to me it means it ain't interested enough in the lure to be competitive against these animals.
But the most likely scenario is that the animal gets too far back and comes home much too late.

[moeee]

I messed up on the Trifecta and the First 4
Fortunately, I took a couple of Exactas with the top 2 selections to beat Walter Bale, becuse it was showing $16 or so near start time.

Don't you just hate when the Quinella pays more than the Exacta?
I always notice when the Winner is Odds On , that this situation is almost certain to occur, but not when the Winner is over $3 :(

I'm still down $5 for the day that went missing on #6 Serene Passion.

[lomaca]

Its a fair bet, means it only needs to beat 2 animals home for money back.

Tell me about your ratings.
Moeee, I took the dogs on as a hobby after I've done some work on a greyhound database for someone else.

I'm busy at the moment and can't spend too much time on refining my rating, which at the moment is fairly crude.
Give me a couple of months and I finish it and show it to you free and gratis.
Only problem is you will have to have some sort of a database holding past records.

As I make my living off the gallops, this will only ever be a hobby for me.
Cheers

[moeee]

Moeee
Give me a couple of months and I finish it and show it to you free and gratis.


GIVE IT TO ME NOW (Angry Smilie Face here)

Nah.
I'm good.
I can wait :)

[lomaca]

I can wait :)Good.
---------------------------------------
Look I've gone out on a limb and bet a Quinella, No 3 with the field for a buck.
Wasted $6.00 or win a fortune, that's the question?
All will be revealed in an hour and 19 minutes!

For God's sake don't let me influence you, always go by your own rating good bad or indifferent!!!!

[lomaca]

Good.
---------------------------------------
Look I've gone out on a limb and bet a Quinella, No 3 with the field for a buck.
Wasted $6.00 or win a fortune, that's the question?
All will be revealed in an hour and 19 minutes!

For God's sake don't let me influence you, always go by your own rating good bad or indifferent!!!!Well that didn't work out, but I had three over $20 winners tonight along the lines that selected this one and learned something important,

DISTANCE!!!!!!
It seems to work on shorter distances only,
sorry about that chief!

good luck

[moeee]

For God's sake don't let me influence you, always go by your own rating good bad or indifferent!!!!

For Gods sake, if I let others influence me I'ld simply give it away.

For some its the winning.
For me its the Challenge.

I'm the believer in give a man a fish and he eats today , teach a man to fish and he eats forever.

My biggest dilemna is that whenever someone tries to teach me something, I don't trust them or dismiss them.(possibly small ********** syndrome).
This is a personality problem I have aquired due to various incidents in my Life.

I'ld like to teach others what useful stuff I know, but its obvious from my posts that that won't take long :)

[moeee]

If I got nothing else out of tonight, its enormous confidence in my ability.
I'm not STOOPID!!!

I could have been Oh So Clever after Race 8, but unfortunately I fell into the same ol' same ol'
The Favourite starts at way Odds On, therefore I throws my ratings out the window and instaed of slamming the race hard to take advantage of the Overlays, I ended up as usual, getting sucked in and obviously I'm wrong and they are right.

Fortunately I had some Daily Doubles and managed half a Unit.
And also as suggested in the relevant post, I managed half a Unit on the Quinella.

So a win, but very minor and these opportunities don't come up very often.....OR DO THEY??? :)

Stay tuned for the Next Chapter.