Don Scott Quinellas

[michaelg]

This morning I decided to look at Quinellas based on D.S's market. I applied the rules:

1) Minimum of 12 starters.
2) Box all selections under $100 in D.S.'s market.
3) A no-bet race if D.S.'s fave is odds-on.

The results using Unitab divvies are:

Qualifying races = 12.
Successful Quinellas = 10.
Outlay of $252
Return of $401
Profit of $149

I did not look at trifectas because the TAB take-out for quinellas is a few percentage points less than trifectas. However it would also have been a winning day because it struck the trifecta at W'bool R10 which paid inxs of $3,400 ($5,000 on NSW TAB).

I know one good day does not a winning method make but I'll be again looking at it tomorrow.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing those findings Michael,

It looks interesting.

[michaelg]

I'll list today's selections and see how they go:

Warwick Farm
7/ 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11

Eagle Farm
6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13

Murray Bridge
4/ 1, 4, 7, 8, 12
6/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11
7/ 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10
8/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 14

W'bool
3/ 3, 4, 7, 10, 12, 13, 14
4/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 16
6/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 19
7/ 1, 4, 8, 10, 15, 20

Pinjarra
2/ 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13
3/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11
4/ 1, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13
5/ 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12
7/ 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13, 14, 15, 17
8/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14

Quinella outlay of $465.
Trifecta outlay of $6,498

Without any large divvies it'll be a wipe-out.

[Bhagwan]

I for one, am prepared for you to take that risk.

[Job123]

I will not say that is not a good idea but to put up 460 plus dollars with just one days past results is utter maddness .

[michaelg]

Job123, you're right, it's utter madness.

However, I'm not betting them, I'm just testing them on paper.

I'm also testing the Win bet on Betfair S.P. assuming a $5 bet, and after 9 races its almost $100 in profit, and with NSW TAB about $80 in profit. Quinellas are currently about $50 in the red.

[max]

What are you doing for the win bet? Putting $5 to win on each of the selections below $100 in each race that qualifies?

[darkydog2002]

I used to box the top 5 rated with excellent results long term.

[michaelg]

That's it, Max.

Bet $5 on each qualifying horse with Betfair S.P.

Darky, you've stopped???

[Mark]

Paper trading is utter madness.
Checking results at the end of the day, seeing how much you may have won or lost, collating over a month, a year whatever.
It doesn't take into account the rollercoaster of emotions that will (I say will and not may) affect your decisions. It's ok to say that a system would be ahead after a certain amount of time, but would any of us be prepared to put on that $1000 bet when all we're trying to do is win $1 or break even on the result. Especially if we started with $1 bets and if this one loses the bank is gone etc etc etc

[michaelg]

Mark, if I test a Trifecta system I will sometimes do so on paper. But if I prefer to test it with real money, I will with a flexi bet of 1% and record the results assuming a $1 bet. So fortunately emotion is not an issue with me when testing.

If I was to bet $1.00 per combination I would have to do so on a sure-fire winning system - are there any?

[Bhagwan]

The safest win staking plan is .5% flat stakes .
Adjusted up & down on a floating bank , at the beginning of each new day .

This helps address those very real fears that comes to all of us on the punt at some stage.

[michaelg]

I've had a look at yesterday's results.

Limiting those races that had a maximum of 8 selections did not perform too badly.

The win outlay was $76 for a return of $108.80 with the TAB, but only a disappointing $109.23 on Betfair S.P.

The quinella outlay was $197 for a return of $200.

The trifecta outlay was $1,830 for a return of $1,620.

I also had a look at Tuesday's results, and again limiting the selections to a max of 8 would have had an excellent day.

Today I'll list the selections when available.

I'm also considering S.P. laying all horses from the method that are $100-plus in the D.S. market regardless of the amount of selections. Out of interest I did so yesterday with one race, and made a good profit on it. I wish I had continued because there were no accidents yesterday, neither on Tuesday.

[moeee]

I for one, am prepared for you to take that risk.

LOLLLL!!!

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Gosford
2/ 3, 4, 5, 8, 14
5/ 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 12, 15
8/ 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 13

Wagga
1/ 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15
2/ 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15
6/ 1, 2, 3, 10

Launceston
1/ 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12
2/ 4, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14

W'bool
2/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 14, 16, 19
5/ 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19

Pt Augusta
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

Albany
1/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 13, 14
2/ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 13

Win outlay $98
Quinella $305
Trifecta $3,366

[michaelg]

Just for interest I might bet on the non-maiden races.

They are:
Gosford R8
Launceston R1
W'bool R5
Pt Augusta R7

[michaelg]

A mixed bag today.

Win
Outlay $98
Return$81.60 (NSW TAB)
Loss $16.40

Quinellas
Outlay
$305
Return $490
Profit $185

Trifectas
Outlay $3,366
Return $8,330
Profit $4,964

[jose]

Wish I could have a mixed bag like the TRI divies!
Well done MG, hope you got some of it.

[michaelg]

Unfortunately I didn't.

However I used it as a lay method against some of the non-qualifiers, and won a few dollars.

[Ricardo48]

Hi michaelg, I have had a look at this idea which seems promising.
The only difference I made was rather then cover all selections @ $100 or less, I dropped the qualifying price to $31 or less.
This way you don't have to cover as many selections and your outlay is smaller.

[michaelg]

Ricardo48, that's not a bad idea.

However, it would have missed Tuesday's $80 winner, the quinella and trifecta.

I'll stick with the current cut-off price of $99 because the method after a few days is showing a profit. But if it fails I'll most likely rethink it, particularly for races where there are more than 8 selections that are under $100.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Sun Coast
3/ 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13

Bendigo
1/ 2, 4, 5, 10, 11, 14, 15
2/ 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 14
3/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11
4/ 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15
5/ 4, 5, 6, 8, 13, 14
7/ 2, 4, 13, 16, 18
8/ 5, 6, 8, 10, 11

Taree
2/ 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10
4/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12
8/ 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11

Wagga
2/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
5/ 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
6/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
7/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11

Win outlay $98
Quinella outlay $285
Trifecta outlay $2,808

[michaelg]

Not a good day. With late scratchings the loss on Win was $29.20, on Quinellas it was $38 and Trifectas it was $987 - too many faves won.

However, applying a couple of filters I layed the resulting selections of the non-qualifiers for a libility of $30. There were 44 selections for 44 smiles for a profit of $48.46. I don't have yesterday's details except that there was one accident but still I finished with a profit of $6.49.

[max]

Are there any other filters you can apply, such as dropping the 1st fav? How does that affect the Quin stats?

[michaelg]

Max, I don't know what will start as the fave.

Before this method, I've sometimes looked at the fave in both D.Scott's market and also the Tele market but their faves quite often can eventually be third or fourth fave in the real market.

The system was still in profit when I lost interest due to my preference with lay betting. However one day I might look at it again, or a variation.

[beton]

Max, I don't know what will start as the fave.

Before this method, I've sometimes looked at the fave in both D.Scott's market and also the Tele market but their faves quite often can eventually be third or fourth fave in the real market.

The system was still in profit when I lost interest due to my preference with lay betting. However one day I might look at it again, or a variation.

Michaelg Hello
A thought came to me when I read this. "Before this method, I've sometimes looked at the fave in both D.Scott's market and also the Tele market but their faves quite often can eventually be third or fourth fave in the real market." So the public thinks that these markets are wrong and makes their own. How often are they wrong?

The general consensus is that the winner is in the top 5 pre-post and/or the top 5 in the market. In most cases they are the same horses with a different order of preference. The obvious answer is enough to make it unviable. did you notice a trend that these Don Scott horses that went out in the real market only to win? I am trying to polish a 3rd fav system.
Hav a good day Beton

I

[michaelg]

Beton, I've found that the Tele, D.S. and real market faves can quite often be quite different.

As a matter of interest, I am under the impression that betting the Betfair fave on Betfair more or less breaks-even, yet from my somewhat scant research betting the Tele fave and also the D.S. fave shows a very small profit with Betfair - this was based on Betfair's last-traded price before S.P. was introduced.

Seeing that S.P. is just about identical to the last-traded price, I would not be surprised if backing the Tele and D.S. faves would still show a profit.

[max]

Beton.

What about a DS fav that are not market fav but still in the top 5?

I like 3rd fav systems as well and have working for years on such systems. Would to exchange what works for us both if you are up for it. My 3,4,5 system in another thread is based on the 3rd favourite. Email perhaps?