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View Full Version : Backing Favorites


beton
5th May 2011, 01:10 PM
Just had an eureka moment. It may be a delusional moment also. I was just looking at favorite win stats. Favs win say 30% of the time. Actually it is indirectly proportional to its odds ranging from 80%+ at $1.20 down to 21% at $4 and 17% at $5. I just looked at half a dozen courses and their average winners per meet is between 2.5 and 3. Roughly one meet per year per course produces a no favorite winner. Most meets are producing 2 or 3 fav winners.
Backing all favs are a loser's folly. rethoric says about 15% loss on turnover.

What about betting all with loss recovery. I am just putting this out there now without any thinking. Start with $10 and double up for 3 losses. Revert back to the $10 at a winner. If 3 losses are encountered put the losses on a retirement staking plan to recover over say 6 races. Thus you are now staking $20.
Any ideas or do I just write a cheque to the Tab now?

max
5th May 2011, 03:22 PM
I think the problem with backing 1st fav is the lack of good returns per win. My system at the moment looks at 3rd to 5th fav and filters out some races to increase S/R. Some of the wins have been $22 and $46!