5th May 2011, 01:10 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Backing Favorites
Just had an eureka moment. It may be a delusional moment also. I was just looking at favorite win stats. Favs win say 30% of the time. Actually it is indirectly proportional to its odds ranging from 80%+ at $1.20 down to 21% at $4 and 17% at $5. I just looked at half a dozen courses and their average winners per meet is between 2.5 and 3. Roughly one meet per year per course produces a no favorite winner. Most meets are producing 2 or 3 fav winners.
Backing all favs are a loser's folly. rethoric says about 15% loss on turnover.
What about betting all with loss recovery. I am just putting this out there now without any thinking. Start with $10 and double up for 3 losses. Revert back to the $10 at a winner. If 3 losses are encountered put the losses on a retirement staking plan to recover over say 6 races. Thus you are now staking $20.
Any ideas or do I just write a cheque to the Tab now?
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