Happens ALL the time

[Barny]

3 Jan 09 - <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:place w:st="on">Cheltenham -</st1:place>1800m - $25k

WHOISHE - 4g - 5 1-1-1 - 12s03 - B 11 - 4.5 kg

Resumed with lacklustre 6 len 12th (55kg) to Jeunealistic1412 C’ham C3 dead trk Nov 22. Just fairduring hd 1-1/4 len 3^rd (54.5kg) Old Worlde, Truly lovely 1600M’ville C3 slow trk Dec 12. Fitter nowbut doubt he is going well enough to win this. Place best.

WON by a length @ 16/1 and paid $28.20 on the tote.

[Barny]

2nd line should read

WHOISHE - 4g - 5 1-1-1 - 12s03 - B 11 - 54.5 kg

[Shaun]

i assume this issue is with excel or a form provider.

[Barny]

Not at all Shaun.

There's at least six examples for the punter to learn some very, very valuable info ..... I'd like comments then I'll give you the good oil !!!

..... and it's a relatively random selection

[TWOBETS]

You've got my attention Barny, but this went whoosh over my head. Can you shed any more light for the dullards such as me?

[moeee]

You have been moderated for flaming. Take care. Moderator.

[jose]

Flaming. This is not a thread about "grammar." Thanks. Moderator.

[Dennis G]

There's at least six examples for the punter to learn some very, very valuable info ..... I'd like comments then I'll give you the good oil !!!

..... and it's a relatively random selectionRandom, but why is the example over 30 months old?

[Barny]

Flaming. These sorts of "all will be revealed" posts in racing forums just bait others. Please do not do this. Thanks. Moderator.

[lomaca]

Flaming. Please post if you have something constructive to add. Thanks. Moderator.

[Cracka]

yeah - what is the point - those sorts of form comments are merely the opinion of one newspaper writer. Most seasoned punters would prefer to ignore the remarks entirely as they have their own opinion.

stack up POT for most newspaper tipsters and you'd be lucky to find one that is in the positive.

[Bhagwan]

Other than targeting horses with negative comments from the race reviewer , I am still non the wiser what you would like comments on.

I hope its not a sort of "Riddle me this Batman" game.


Heres one.
Target top 6 selections from anywhere & bet all those with negative race comments from race reviewer & hope the Fav does not win all day.

Must be 4.50+

[Barny]

You're a suspicious lot. I need those who view but don't post to comment. The more feedback the better.

[place2win]

3 Jan 09 - ffice:smarttags" /><st1:place w:st="on">Cheltenham -</st1<img>lace>1800m - $25k

WHOISHE - 4g - 5 1-1-1 - 12s03 - B 11 - 4.5 kg

Resumed with lacklustre 6 len 12th (55kg) to Jeunealistic1412 C’ham C3 dead trk Nov 22. Just fairduring hd 1-1/4 len 3^rd (54.5kg) Old Worlde, Truly lovely 1600M’ville C3 slow trk Dec 12. Fitter nowbut doubt he is going well enough to win this. Place best.

WON by a length @ 16/1 and paid $28.20 on the tote.

Ok Lets see.
This is a one out piece of data relating to one contender for an up comming race.
Had 5 starts for 3 placings, reasonable contender.
Of the 5 starts, we are only shown 4 (12s03)the fifth and first was unplaced
however, this exposed form shows potential.
It is increasing in distance (up 200m ea start) with only marginal weight
diff from first start back (.5kg) this would be considered within it's scope.
Track conditions of previous runs; dead to slow, if current conditions, same or better, it is in with a chance.
Days since runs about same approx 20 days.
Lightly raced
My money is on

[Silver_and_sand]

G'day Barny. I'm a bit befuddled? Are we supposed to glean the six examples of ??? from only the text you've given in the original post, or from our own research of Whoishe's form leading into that 3/1/09 race?

[Silver_and_sand]

If we're just supposed to glean pointers from the given text from the opening post, then:

- Better results from increasing distances. Finished 12th at 1412m, then 3rd at 1600m in it's last 2 races. Could suggest it's better suited to a longer distance, which it's about to get.

- Decreasing margins as fitness increases coming back from spell (and possibly being gelded). Finished 6 lengths back 1st race back from spell, then only 1.6 lengths back in it's 2nd race back, and about to race it's 3rd race back from spell.

- It had never raced on a Good track before, but you couldn't glean that from what was given.

- The wording "lucklustre" and "just fair" suggests that maybe the trainer wasn't targeting or intending to win either of those first 2 races, and maybe even told the jockey to ride on pace early knowing that the horse probably wouldn't last the distance on pace, but would at least gain some fitness needed to race out the 1800m distance in Whoishe's 3rd race back from the spell.

- The Bookies SP price compared to the tote price is a bit of a clue that the horse isn't a bad prospect. The Bookies are basically broadcasting to the public that they don't want to take any bets on Whoishe. I remember one time a few years ago when I was still pretty green to racing, I blindly went to put a bet on with a bookie in the betting ring with about a minute to go before the race, and he just smiled at me, and suggested I go put it on with the Tote instead. He didn't want my money, even though it was only $50. From memory, the bookies price had been $5 and the Tote price was over $12. It was stupid of me not to check the Tote price before I'd gone to the bookie, but I'd just forgotten to check first. The horse won of course, and when I walked back into the betting ring after the race, the Bookie winked at me and smiled. Say what you will about bookies, but they are pretty smart to be able to identify a likely winner even though it might be $12 on the Tote.

Are any of those points what we're supposed to be looking for Barny?

[partypooper]

Just set yourself up now with a mag titled say, "unspeculative injvesting" or maybe "impracticle betting" sock it too em' and charge like the "Light Brigade" with every disclaimer under the Sun, and you've "made it"!

[Barny]

Used to be a lot of good discussions on here, years ago, maybeI’m not the best at starting them eh? I’ma bit disheartened at the lack of responses and whatever was said to me thatended up being moderated.

Silver and sand pretty much got to the guts of most of thepoints but there were two points that I consider important but I actuallycouldn’t be bothered going into a lot of detail because it appears worthless. But the summary of a couple of worthy pointsare;

1) Most systems end up with the first four in betting andthe comparable tote figures to the SP reflect the popularity and unders when asystem horse wins.

2) The improversmethod (which darkydog2002 touched on) outlined in my original post, with acouple of filters, and selecting the correct race (a 5/1 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Melbourne</st1:place></st1:city> Cup winner is the same as a 5/1winner at Wagga) throws up some serious longshots with maybe half a dozen betseach week.

I did say “All will be revealed” but I would really only be givingmy info to the lurkers who don’t bother posting. So I’m reneging.

[lomaca]

Flaming. Please post if you have something constructive to add. Thanks. Moderator.OK Moderator, as soon the OP will post something worthy of making a constructive comment on I will.

Until then will YOU do us all a favour in return for supporting your forum, by sending posts like the one in question to the general forum where all and sundry drivel is allowed?

Will you?

Thank you Sir.

[Bhagwan]

Sorry...Riddles & cryptic messages just does not cut it

How can anyone put forward anything constructive , it would all be guessing trying to unravel what the point may be .

Then get all huffy when folk say they cant make head nor tail as to what you are tying to say.

Why not try just getting to the point without the smoke & mirrors like everyone else does on this forum.

We could all put up volumns of text , then ask ... now what do you make of this , it happens all the time.

What is it that happens all the time?

[Barny]

bhagwan, I have posted good stuff.

This was just something different. You were the beneficiary of some very good exchange of ideas early on in this forum, When you joined this forum, how shall I put this ??, your knowledge was well below what it is now, and you seem to come from a statistical point of view all the time. That's fair enough. I'm disappointed that you are having a shot at me too.

Throw in somehing a little different and it just doesn't seem to suit people. I can cop that, but all I wanted was a decent number of observations. I thought by the number of posts, good and bad, that you and others may have trusted me .... ahh well, live and learn eh ??

cheers

[Bhagwan]

I'm not trying to be mean to you Barny.

So no offence intended

You are a pleasant chap and do welcome your input.

I am just a little frustrated as to what it is being put forward & what the thing is that "happens all the time" as per header .

When I used to put forward some, left of centre, ideas , I used to attract the crazy types, who love to tear strips off people.

They would even pick people up on spelling mistakes & grammar , of all things.

So I have no intention of doing that to you my friend.

[partypooper]

Barny, maybe you are a little paranoid mate, in my case my cynicism was directed at "other" entities not you....... though I do emphasise with others as to what exactly you were getting at? it was a bit cryptic mate?

[place2win]

No Form Runner Bar Wt Back SP Lay.....STAB...NSW...UNI
8 14609 Swiftly Brave 2 57.5 12 3.49 12.5 8.1 10.2 7.1

4 4X43 Pegunny Chief 1 57.5 2.7 3.52 2.72 3.1 2.4 3.3

7 46523 Single Toast 6 57.5 4.1 14 4.2 4 4.3 4.8

Race 4 Rockhampton 15:17 11/08/2011

[place2win]

No...Form...Runner...........Back....SP....LAY....Stab....NSW....UNITAB

8....14609 Swiftly Brave.... 12......3.49..12.5...8.1......10.2.....7.1

4....4X43 Pegunny Chief.... 2.7.....3.52...2.72..3.1.......2.4......3.3

7....46523 Single Toast..... 4.1.....14.0....4.2...4.0.......4.3.......4.8

Race 4 Rockhamton 15:17 11/08/2011

Maybe this time

[The Ocho]

Hi place2win

How can numbers 8 and 7 have such different starting prices compared to the back/lay prices? I would say even #4 is out of whack.

#8 won but what are you trying to tell us?

[Mark]

Not sure what Place2win is getting at but Betfair were having problems at the time of this race.
The SP's for the previous (Goulburn?) didn't go up until the race was nearly over, and the in-runing market was the same. Then this race the SP's went up around 6 minutes before the jump !! at about 80%, and the in-running didn't work at all.
Strange goings on indeed.

[place2win]

Thanks for the responses,
Mark you probably nailed it.
I don't normally follow the SP market and was only having
a wager in this race because a friend had a interest in No15.
He wanted to know if we could get on at the SP (160).
As I didn't know the procedure we took the Bf price each way.
However, I was intrigued with the SP/BACK price available for
Swiftly Brave. Considering the prices available on the totes.
So I had a little on for a good return.
Wasn't sure if this normal occurrance, so posed the question
are we being observant.
Appologies to Barney for highjacking your thread.

[Dennis G]

Barny,
still waiting with baited breath to find out what 'happens all the time'. Not being smart, just very curious.....

[Bhagwan]

What would happen if one targeted the TAB fav 60 secs from jump & then

backing it on Betfair if its a non-fav on Betfair.

I have seen anecdotal examples where the TAB Fav 60secs from jump SR has been approx 28% and it was not the Betfair Fav. at 5 secs till jump.

More research would have to be done.

One chap told me he does very well out of doing this.

I don't know what filters he may use.

He bets to price .
Dividing Betfair price into a fixed take out figure of say $30.00
e.g. Betfair $4.50 divided into 30.00 = O/L $6.70

He said sometimes the price blows out to as much as $10.00 on Betfair & it wins.

He said its very common to see them win, starting as Betfair 2nd to 4th fav. at good prices.

He claims his SR is approx 24-28% depending on the day.

To summarise what he does :
Target the TAB Fav 60 secs out from jump.
This is done on Uni Tab as soon as the TAB indicates 0 on the screen , this means there is 60 secs to go.

Bet it on Betfair 5 secs out if a Non-Fav on Betfair.

No bet - if its also Betfair fav.

Bet to price.

Happens all the time.