Bhagwan
12th January 2012, 05:42 AM
Ever wondered how to deal with runs of outs & how much you should stake at level stakes with a strong chance of only losing 20% of total bank after worst case run of outs.
First, you have to know what your average SR of your betting approach is.
Then look up the list below to find out what the theoretical run of outs may be.
Once you know that , we divide our theoretical worst case run of outs , into 20%
This tell us what percentage of bank we should bet at level stakes.
Example.
Say we have a 20% win SR with our selections based on say our last 150 bets.
List below suggests we will encounter 31 outs in a row, at some stage.
Try not to kid yourself that it wont happen, because it eventually will, the percentages will not be denied..
Now....
Divide that 31 run of outs into 20% = Bet .65% of bank level stakes.
(154th of bank)
This means if we ever do hit this horror run of 31 outs in a row.
We will have lost only 20% of bank.
Leaving us 80% of our bank intact, to keep on going to recover losses.
Strike Rate(%) -----Max. Outs in a Row
5-------------------- 135
10------------------- 66
15------------------- 43
20------------------- 31
25------------------- 24
30------------------- 19
35------------------- 16
40------------------- 14
45------------------- 12
50------------------- 10
55------------------- 9
60------------------- 8
65------------------- 7
70------------------- 6
75------------------- 5
80------------------- 4
85------------------- 4
90------------------- 3
95------------------- 2
First, you have to know what your average SR of your betting approach is.
Then look up the list below to find out what the theoretical run of outs may be.
Once you know that , we divide our theoretical worst case run of outs , into 20%
This tell us what percentage of bank we should bet at level stakes.
Example.
Say we have a 20% win SR with our selections based on say our last 150 bets.
List below suggests we will encounter 31 outs in a row, at some stage.
Try not to kid yourself that it wont happen, because it eventually will, the percentages will not be denied..
Now....
Divide that 31 run of outs into 20% = Bet .65% of bank level stakes.
(154th of bank)
This means if we ever do hit this horror run of 31 outs in a row.
We will have lost only 20% of bank.
Leaving us 80% of our bank intact, to keep on going to recover losses.
Strike Rate(%) -----Max. Outs in a Row
5-------------------- 135
10------------------- 66
15------------------- 43
20------------------- 31
25------------------- 24
30------------------- 19
35------------------- 16
40------------------- 14
45------------------- 12
50------------------- 10
55------------------- 9
60------------------- 8
65------------------- 7
70------------------- 6
75------------------- 5
80------------------- 4
85------------------- 4
90------------------- 3
95------------------- 2