Ever wondered how to deal with runs of outs & how much you should stake at level stakes with a strong chance of only losing 20% of total bank after worst case run of outs.

First, you have to know what your average SR of your betting approach is.
Then look up the list below to find out what the theoretical run of outs may be.
Once you know that , we divide our theoretical worst case run of outs , into 20%
This tell us what percentage of bank we should bet at level stakes.

Example.
Say we have a 20% win SR with our selections based on say our last 150 bets.
List below suggests we will encounter 31 outs in a row, at some stage.
Try not to kid yourself that it wont happen, because it eventually will, the percentages will not be denied..
Now....
Divide that 31 run of outs into 20% = Bet .65% of bank level stakes.
(154th of bank)

This means if we ever do hit this horror run of 31 outs in a row.
We will have lost only 20% of bank.
Leaving us 80% of our bank intact, to keep on going to recover losses.


Strike Rate(%) -----Max. Outs in a Row
5-------------------- 135
10------------------- 66
15------------------- 43
20------------------- 31
25------------------- 24
30------------------- 19
35------------------- 16
40------------------- 14
45------------------- 12
50------------------- 10
55------------------- 9
60------------------- 8
65------------------- 7
70------------------- 6
75------------------- 5
80------------------- 4
85------------------- 4
90------------------- 3
95------------------- 2

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Cheers.

That's handy B.
Cheers.

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Jose'.

Thanks very much Bhagwan. That's great.

So with the NEW @46 % strike rate at some point we,ll get 12 straight losses X $150 or a loss of $1800.
One of the reasons I consider a $3000 bank to be insufficent.

Cheers
darky

Can your run of outs increase if you use multiple systems with each system returning 40% Strike Rate?

Hi Darky,

"So with the NEW @46 % strike rate at some point we,ll get 12 straight losses X $150 or a loss of $1800."

You will need to review that 46%
It should be based on number of races having a successful selection as a percentage of races bet.

Example
10 resulting races from 16 races with 2 horses a race = 63% SR
Not...
10 winners from 32 horses with 2 runners per race = SR 31%

You would'nt do that if one where doing Trifectas , Doubles & Quinellas.

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Hi Vortech.
"Can your run of outs increase if you use multiple systems with each system returning 40% Strike Rate?"

That depends if one is running individual banks or one great big bank.

If using one big bank , its treated as number of races where a winner was struck as a percentage to races bet.
e.g. 3 selections in same race would be taken as 1 win at say 20/1 from 1 race = 100% win SR
Not...
1 winner from 3 selections = 33.33%
Its the SR we are dealing with at the moment, in relation to races bet.
Profit percentage is a different conversation.

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Cheers.

From memory, I think the above figures relate to a 95% confidence level. This would mean that in 95 sequences out of 100 the corresponding figures apply. So maybe a bank 5 times the worst case scenario is needed.

gunny72

That's right Gunny.
That's why the formula states to divide the worst case run of outs, into 20% which is equivalent to 1/5th of bank
or
5 x max run of outs = Bank size recommended.

It all works out the same.

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Cheers.