Another Test

[michaelg]

I've been doing very well in Laying the Field for races with 12-plus runners. I've not yet had a losing day.

Using the same selection process I've looked at races with 8 to 11 starters but only for Win betting.

The NSW TAB is showing loss of approx 11% which isn't too bad seeing that they take about 16% commission.

So I've looked at the divvies with Betfair S.P. Not surprisingly there is a profit of almost 6% on outlay, and this is betting every selection.

It's a lot easier to list the selections here than there is to list the Lay the Field selections. And I think there would be more interest here. So I'll show today's selections

Rosehill
7/ 1, 3, 6, 8

Gold Coast
2/ 4, 5, 7, 8, 10

Flemington
4/ 1, 4, 6, 9, 11
7/ 1, 2, 4, 6, 7

M'ville
5/ 1, 4, 5, 7, 8

Ipswich
5/ 2, 4, 6, 7

Queanbeyan
3/ 2, 3, 5, 8
7/ 1, 2, 3, 7

Toowoomba
4/ 1, 2, 3, 4
5/ 2, 3, 4, 6

Bairnsdale
4/ 3, 4, 6, 7
6/ 3, 5, 6, 7
7/ 2, 3, 4 6

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. The outlay was $56 and the return was $61.67 for a profit of $5.67, or a POT of 10.1%.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Cowra
7/ 1, 2, 3, 5

Werribee
7/ 2, 4, 5, 11

Kilmore
4/ 5, 6, 8, 10
5/ 1, 3, 4, 7
7/ 3, 4, 6, 9

Strathalbyn
3/ 2, 3, 7, 8
7/ 2, 4, 5, 9

Hobart
2/ 1, 2, 4, 7
3/ 1, 2, 4, 5
6/ 2, 4, 5, 8
9/ 3, 5, 9, 10


Because I prefer laying I haven't been betting the method, but will do so today with $5.00 S.P. bets...and hope.

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday - it lost $33.10. Its showing a 10% POT so I'll continue to list the selections.

However, laying the field compensated for the loss. If the bet system goes backwards I might show the selections and liabilities for laying the field method (someone might be interested).

Today's bet selections:

Ararat
8/ 1, 3, 7, 12

Nowra
1/ 2, 5, 6, 7
6/ 4, 7, 9, 11

[jose]

Always interested mg.

[michaelg]

Thanks, jose.

I seldom lay fields with less than 12 starters but because there are no qualifying races today I have layed 4 other races that would've qualified if there wasn't the 12 runner rule. I've won on 2 of them (8 and 11 starters) so I'll list the two remaining races.

Canberra R6
2 - $30
3 - 32
4 - 35
5 - 35
6 - 33
7 - 34
8 - 32
9 - 35
10 - 33
11 - 35
12 - 35

Canberra R7
2 - 32
3 - 33
4 - 35
5 - 34
6 - 35
7 - 30
8 - 33
9 - 35
10 - 33
11 - 35
12 - 35

[michaelg]

There is one genuine qualifying race today.

Launceston R1
$30 - nos. 2, 4, 5, 8
$31 - all other horses.

[michaelg]

The profit was $1.46, the worst possible result would have been a loss of $2.16.

[michaelg]

No qualifying races today.

Because there are too few qualifying races I'm looking at a second Lay the Field method which provides a fair bit of action.

The method hasn't been doing too badly so I'll list today's selections, with the liabilities.

The selections listed below are layed for a liability of $30 and all the remaining horses for $31.

Muswellbrook
8/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
9/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Pinjarra
6/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
7/ 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 11
8/ 1, 3, 4

Seymour
8/ 1, 6

Rocky
5/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

[michaelg]

A small loss yesterday due to Seymour R8 which had only two $30 selections. This most likely means that the race is not "open". Consequently the fave was much shorter than I expected, and unfortunately won resulting in the loss. This is something I will now have to consider.

As a matter of interest, the selection method depends on the neurals. When I identified the $30 selections yesterday in my neural market one of them was at single figures yet when I checked later in the day after a few races had already been run, it was showing $100 and now that the races are finished it's $200 ???

[michaelg]

Today I will only list those races that have six selections or more because they could be races where there are several chances. Yesterday there were four of them - they were all profitable. However, I will also privately monitor today's races that have five and less selections.

Ballina
3/ 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
7/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10

M'ton
7/ 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
8/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10

Ipswich
6/ 2, 3, 4, 7, 11,12
7/ 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8

Cranbourne
6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9

[michaelg]

Not the worst of days. A profit of $4.72 was made.

A small profit but the liability is also small.

[michaelg]

Today's qualifying races:

The numbers shown are layed for a liability of $30, all others for $31

Flemington
6/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11
8/1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7

Eagle Farm
4/ 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12

M'ville
6/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10

Albury
6/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10

Toowoomba
1/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7

Ascot
5/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 13, 14

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. There were five profitable races from the seven for an overall profit of $5.70.

As a matter of interest, if every selection since I started listing the selections and their liabilities here on Thursday, were bet for $5 on Betfair S.P., the results after 5% had been deducted, would have been:

Thursday - $230 bet for a return of $273.30.
Friday - $355 bet for a return of $465.20.
Today - $390 bet for a return of $455.40.

Total bet = $975
Total return = $1193
Profit = $218, which is a POT of 22%.

[michaelg]

In my last posting I listed the total Betfair S.P. return for backing every horse for $5 in the qualifying races over the past three days. The total outlay was $975 and the total Betfair S.P. return was $1,193 for a POT of 22%.

Out of interest I've compared this with the NSW TAB - the TAB return was surprisingly $1,260 which is about 5% more then S.P. However, it was only 18 races, but it was 195 bets.

Today's qualifying races and the liabilities are:

Grafton
5/ 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9

Ballarat
6/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
7/ 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10

Geraldton
6/ 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11
7/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

[The Ocho]

You're going well there MG, keep it up.

[Mark]

Hard to lose today as a layer with some of the big SP's.

[michaelg]

No, it was a terrible day thanks to Geraldton R7 where the hot fave won.

The method lost $3.51.

After the four days it is $13.00 in profit so I can't really complain, just disappointed.

[michaelg]

Today there's only one qualifying race.

Moruya
7/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7


I have also been looking at the weight carried by horses, particularly those of 59.5-plus kilos.

Over the past seven days there were 49 selections that qualified for a system I'm checking. As there were 49 smiles from them, some at single figure prices I'll list today's only selection and see how it goes.

Terang 8/2 ($11 pre-post)

[michaelg]

A winning day for the method for a profit of $2.04.

The "weight" selection was beaten for a smile/profit of $1.46.

[michaelg]

Three qualifying races today:

Hobart
9/ 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 - liability of $30
All others at $31.

Townsville
6/ 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
9/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12


Lay Method

Wangaratta
9/2 ($7 pre-post)

Hobart
7/1 ($4)

Townsville
5/1 ($4)