Staggered lay the field

[beton]

Staggered Lay the field
I have been informed that I may breathe again from next week after being swamped with commitments.
So it is back to laying the field.
My previous efforts have been too much of a rollercoaster for too little return. Effort vs risk = not worth the effort.
Mark has his book laying method which while showing good consistent returns requires him to be at the computer race by race. This obviously suits him and I salute him. For me this just moves from one job to another. I don’t need that and decline.
Chrome Prince has been laying the field all races all venues by bot and whilst coming out in front is a massive rollercoaster and a small return on turnover.
On the BetBotPro site we have laying the top three on a ratchet staking plan which shows a return.
Both Mark and Chrome Prince have stated something similar. Lay to return a specific amount but have the amounts staggered. This is significantly different from laying the field for a fixed liability.
MichaelG supports this with his staggered liability.
Both Shaun and now evajb001 are flagging their ratings with good results.
My data base says that the public gets it right with the fav winning in direct proportion to the price and the top 5 having the loins share.
Backing the fav is still a fast road to the poor house no matter what the odds are.
From my side of the fence I want something that can be automated.
Thus I throw this into the arena. The questions are will it work. Can it be automated? Can I get pointed in the right direction? Can I get help if I have to sort it out myself?
Lay the SP fav for $30 liability. Lay the 2nd fav for $35 liability, lay the 3rd fav for $40 liability etc throughout the field. This would see the 15th fav at a $100 liability. This is the easy version.
The harder version is to take a race rating for the favourite selection. These ratings could be Shaun’s, evajb001 or Don Scott’s or best form etc pick one and stay with it.
Any comment is appreciated.
Thanks Beton

[Mark]

"Thus I throw this into the arena. The questions are will it work. Can it be automated? Can I get pointed in the right direction? Can I get help if I have to sort it out myself?"

Yes it can work.
Yes it probably can be automated, (others are much more qualified than me to answer this) but if you're not there to supervise you will still have the rollercoaster happening.

"Lay the SP fav for $30 liability. Lay the 2nd fav for $35 liability, lay the 3rd fav for $40 liability etc throughout the field. This would see the 15th fav at a $100 liability."

Don't do this !!! It's all out of whack. A run of decent priced winners, which is what we layers want, and you will get fried.

If someone can automate laying to payout a certain amount if a runner is a certain price then I'm in. Always, ALWAYS, make the fav the worst, or at best make it second worst and the 2nd fav the worst.

[Shaun]

I personally think you are better of laying to payout rather than liability if you are going to stagger the selections.

Using the standard betfair option you can't do this with SP but i know gruss can display potential SP just before the start of the race so this is possible.

[Chrome Prince]

beton,
Just about anything can be automated if one is prepared to get the right software or write it.
I agree with Mark, it is all out of whack. From all the data I have,
you'll do your bank in no time. With Mark's approach, the price of the favourite is lower than the SP usually because of the book percentage he makes.
Don't make the mistake of thinking if the favourite is the worst way, you'll automatically win. It entirely depends on the price you get for the exposure.

I would suggest you need to think of price brackets rather than individual selections. This can be automated and the data tells me if blindly laying favourites you will lose without somehow pushing the percentages.
There is a blind edge, but it takes work to get it.
Get the SP data and go through it as if you were laying to liability.
eg liability divided by (price-1)

You'll soon see there are distinct areas that provide profit and distinct areas that eat it up again. So you end up with a 1% edge which is a rollercoaster.
Find the areas that eat up the profit, and you'll have a smoother ride.

[beton]

Thanks Mark Shaun and Chrome Prince. I read what you are saying and will sit down and ponder. In the meantime if somebody knows how this can be automated, please put your hand up.
Beton

[Shaun]

I can automate it using Gruss as that is the platform i use, the excel integration works well.

[beton]

Thanks Shaun
In due course we might have to sit down together and see what can be done.

Lay the SP fav etc is vetoed. The lay for a return is the consensus.
Gruss can pick the possible SP ranking before the jump. I am assuming here that Gruss can also lay the field at different amounts to pay different dividends.
Lets look at a random race, (the last one) Doomben R5. Fine, 2000M, Good3, Group 3, 16 runners
Results 2,4,6 & 9
# BF$ SP WATAB $ $30 Liability $100 return. $120 return (outlay)
1 22 (23) 1.43 2100 2520
2 16.60 (9.10) 1.92 1560 1872
3 133 (99) 0.23 13200 15840
4 6.25 (5) 5.71 525 630
5 4.70 (4.40) 8.11 370 444
6 8.06 (7.10) 4.25 706 8472
7 16.6 (18.30) 1.92 1560 1872
8 107 (69.10) 0.28 10600 12720
9 20.9 (13.10) 1.51 1990 2380
10 7.60 (6.90) 3.95 660 792
11 48.6 (28.4) 0.63 4760 5712
12 23 (23.90) 1.36 2200 2640
13 35.2 (33.90) 0.85 3420 4104
14 120 (155) 0.25 11900 14280
15 66.1 (42.90) 0.46 6610 7932
16 117 (52.10) 0.26 11600 13920
32.86

Having got this far I can see that this was a poor choice to test on and I don’t think that I am on the right track, but shall continue because I learn and somebody else may as well.
Firstly I think that 16 runners may not be representative. The odds range may not be representative either. And I think the nature of the exercise was to win $100 no matter which horse won. This has essentially become a $16000 lay in the worst case scenario.

#4 won. The second fav. @$30 liability we would have lost $2.85.
@ win $100 as above then our outlay would have been $525. We would have picked up $100 on each of the other runners so we would be $1500- $525 = $975 – BF comm. $64 = $911 in front.
If the rank outsider got up then we would be out $13200, but would get $1500 back meaning that we would be $11700 out of pocket. In fact if any other than the top 4 won we would be out of pocket. If favs 5 or 6 got up it would be touch and go.
Thus it is not easy. However the 16th fav wins very few races. Going from memory it only happened once in my 43000 race database. The top 5 win >85% of the races. I can see a distinct advantage in staggering the payout. The stagger would have to be in accordance with the strike rate for each ranking. Unfortunately that strike rate varies mainly with the first favs odds and secondly the field size. Other factors only have a smaller range of variance. Thus we may have to be >$2 and 8+ runners.
I can see some heavy thinking must be done
Beton

[UselessBettor]

benton,

Find Marks post from about 2 months ago. I have been looking at it and with a bit of smarts (which isn't hard) you can actually start to turn a profit on most races.

Mark,

Just a quick one for you as I don't want to hijacks bentons thread. How early do you start looking at each race? I am finding if I monitor the races earlier I can get better books (obviously picking up those early betters who take the shorter prices). So was just wondering what you think is a good time to start monitoring a race (either minutes or percentages) ? My rough idea is probably when any race hits about 90% market / 110% market then its time to start putting in your prices. If I have finished one race I am moving to the next market around 90% which is usually 5-10 minutes away. I can't do each race wihch is 2mins away from each other on a Saturday.

[beton]

benton,

Find Marks post from about 2 months ago. I have been looking at it and with a bit of smarts (which isn't hard) you can actually start to turn a profit on most races.

UB Thanks. I have Mark's thread for-mentioned. A great thread but requires one to sit at the computer to do it. I have worked hard all my life and now that I am able to stop, I want to enjoy. I want to play golf and travel, kick back and play with my grandchildren. Hence wanting to automate.

I have in the past crunched the numbers for laying to SP. Whilst being positive it was a real rollercoaster. Mark is correct in what he is saying as is Chrome Prince. I just hope that we can find a common ground that can be automated. Regards Beton

[Shaun]

Can you post the link to that thread, i think it was the one about making a book and how to start.

[beton]

Shaun
Page 6 1st March
http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=23491&page=6&pp=10

I just reread it. The fav to return a higher amount.
Beton

[UselessBettor]

beton your making it too easy for all the lurkers.

Anyway page 6 didn't work for me as I sort my threads differently so it might not be page 6 for you Shaun but im sure you can work it out. But benton is right that is the correct post I was talking about.

[beton]

After a bit of cogitating we come up with Plan B (all the other plans were lowercase and thrown out)
Each race has different dynamics. However each factor has only marginal variance to the favorites winning strike rate. Except odds and field size and as Chrome Prince also brought to light – firming horses. Class, track , distance and weather only vary by one percent. Over the various prices for the favorite the strike rate goes from >80% at $1.20 to <20% at over $5. From 5 runners up to 24 runners the strike goes from 86% down to 11.8% over all the price ranges.
Our plan is to automate this. To do this I must either attach the betting bot to a data base or I produce a chart which gives us the historical averages of each ranked horse in each field size in each price range. School is still out whether we only do from $2 and 8+ runners or do every race.
Example field of 8 in the >$2.00 to =$2.50 range.
1st rank..38.31%..$2.61..lay $161 for $100+ win This will always be unders.
2nd rank..24.44%..$4.09.. lay $309
3rd rank..13.80%..$7.24..lay $624
4th rank..9.40%..$10.64..lay $964
5th rank..5.72%..$17.48..lay $1648
6th rank..$19.46..$19.46..lay $1846
7th rank..1.94%..$51.60..lay $5160
8th rank..1.16%..$86.21.. lay $8621
This range may have to be split up as the fav has a 6% range over this 50 cent range. The maximum rate is 0.5% and $200 (lay $20000). Because results show that even rank outsiders have at least a 1 in 200 chance.
The percentage figure is the average strike rate for the range, the monetary figure is $100 divided by the SR or the breakeven point without commission. The SR figures are from tote. Plan 1 is to lay the horses at these ratios when it is a 8 horse race and it looks like the SP of the fav is between $2 and $2.50. If it is a 12 horse race or in a different price range then a different chart is used. Plan 2 loads the first rank by 20%, second rank by 15% 3rd rank by 10% and fourth rank by 5%. Plan 3 is a bit more complicated and requires checking for firmers which requires three different charts depending whether the fav is steady firming or drifting. To start Plan 2 may be the go.
The thinking of this instead of laying all for $100 is as follows.
These are the statistical averages. They have the weight of numbers with the selections by the masses. The adage is bet overs and lay unders. By betting to these rates if the price you get is less then you bolster the unders. If the price you get is higher then you limit your overs.
The chart can be in excel. No problem there I have the data extracted already. The bot will have to tell the number of runners and ascertain the potential SP and tell the excel program. The excel program will give the various amounts to the bot to lay. In the future it may be prudent to extract the data from a database.
Devil advocates please take a number and line up. I am a big boy and will take the flak
Beton

[Chrome Prince]

This could be done with visual basic in excel connected to Gruss Betting Assistant.
We can get the size of the field and the last traded price of the favourite.
This info is already pulled from Betfair.

Would take a bit of work. I'd suggest trialling it for a while using a chart you make up depending on price and number of runners, and then either we can take a stab at coding it, or I have a programmer who could do it from Gruss who has done work for me before, he's not cheap but he is reasonable and will do everything to make sure it's all correct.

[beton]

I have to brush up on my excel then

[Shaun]

I could do it if i understood what you are trying to do.

[Mark]

I may be wrong, but you appear to be looking at the longer the price the bigger the payout or the bigger the liability. if this is true, you won't last a week. For layers, the profit is in laying the shorter priced runners.

[Chrome Prince]

It depends on the prices you get and the advantage you have.
If there is no % advantage long term it doesn't matter what liability you have, you'll lose.

For example, the Favourites up to $3.00 for one method I have, there is no advantage, it is breakeven for me. So it makes no sense to have them biggest liability.
This includes all odds on favourites.

Let's say my advantage is in the $4.00 to $8.00 range.
It makes sense to have these as my biggest liability and everything else is a win or skinner.

I do agree, it makes sense not to have outsiders as your biggest liability.
You'll come unstuck in a big way, unless you are selective and ave an edge.
I think the difference between Mark and myself is that he works at getting an edge, I work solely within the confines of the market and don't try and better it, because when it goes pearshaped, I lose more than win :(

[beton]

Thanks Chrome Prince and Shaun. I will try to sort out the charts first. Once I have done that I will meet you Shaun for a quick chat. I am assuming that you are based in Perth. We will need you Chrome Prince once we test the plan.
Mark thanks for your comments Quote "I may be wrong, but you appear to be looking at the longer the price the bigger the payout or the bigger the liability. if this is true, you won't last a week. For layers, the profit is in laying the shorter priced runners." Unquote. I am not trying to do this. I am trying to follow your advice. (1) Lay to a target amount. Your earlier post a couple of months ago was to lay the fav to pay $120 the second fav for a bit less etc and then lay the remainder to pay $100. (2) in another post you say to make a book. This is what I am trying to do. I am also trying to combine these into an automated system. The high laying liability is only a result of having a target payout figure of $100.

Instead of just accepting the available odds at the time of placing the laybet I am saying that in the case of the third fav "When the odds of the first fav is between $2 and 2.50 and there are ony 8 runners, historically the third has only won 13.8% of the time. Thus I am only going to lay an amount that reflects a 13.8% SR ($7.24 0r $6.24 lay liability). If the third fav is only paying $5 then this is unders and we will be laying more on this horse than we would have if we had been just targetting $100. Similarly if the third was paying $8.50, this would be overs and we have limited our exposure. Overall having more on the unders and less on the overs and a 100% market. In each price range the fav is always under"

Instead of looking at one race and finding profit, I am looking at 100 races and finding profit. Hopefully with a little in every race. I fully understand that the majority of the profits are in the shorter end that is why we will set up with Plan 2 first.

My database says that no horse more than 17th rank has won. But it is still possible so we limit the max liability to 1 in 200. Past 10th rank there are very few winners. Once I have compiled my charts I will address this end. I am definately not trying to boost this end. I may even have to restrict this end to restrict the liability because it is scary.

I hope this clears up my thought pattern. I welcome all comments because I would sooner be shot now than shot financially.
Beton

[beton]

Thanks Chrome Prince for your latter reply I will get to it later. came while I was posting

[Chrome Prince]

Actually after reading your last post, I like it.
I think it has legs, but maybe we or you need to concentrate on the price of the third favourite.
i.e. if the favourite is between $2.00 and $2.50 and the third favourite has x% strike rate in these circumstances, what is the maximum price we are able to lay that third favourite at?

I would look at price first and liability second, but I could be wrong.

[beton]

Actually after reading your last post, I like it.
I think it has legs, but maybe we or you need to concentrate on the price of the third favourite.
i.e. if the favourite is between $2.00 and $2.50 and the third favourite has x% strike rate in these circumstances, what is the maximum price we are able to lay that third favourite at?

I would look at price first and liability second, but I could be wrong.

Chrome Prince I am trying to understand what you are saying here. The third fav without having done the charts seems to be quite stable. It has an overall average of about 14%. Below $2 it dips below 10% and it goes out to 16+% as the fav gets real long. Where the bulk of the races are $2-$4 Fav it only ranges 3-4%. What I am trying to do is set the price of the field to their average SR. This is their breakeven point before commissions. The maximum we can lay it at is what the market will allow us to. If the maximum price we can get on the third fav is only $5, then this is the price. (we are actually trying to get the lowest price) By setting our liability to the SR we may have the payout at $120 instead of just $100 but we are loading up on unders. in the rare occassions that the price is above the SR then we have limited our exposure. I think that the third is overbet by people looking for value. You need $6+ most of the time and below odds on you need near $10. (I toyed with the idea of just laying unders and dismissed it as too hard and maybe unwarranted) We may have to set the amounts to breakeven after commissions to make it work profitably, or even to breakeven after both commissions and profits.

What we are searching for is that it is not a dead duck in the water. That it can be done and how it can be done and who can help how they can help and will they help. Hopefully to each persons benefit. If you are drilling for water, nobody can get a drink until you bring the water to the surface.
Beton

[Chrome Prince]

O.K. got it now.
Yes, I'm willing to help if I can.
If I can't and you are at a dead end, I can point you to a good programmer.

[beton]

Chrome Prince
Thanks for the offer. I see a need and will eventually take you up on the offer as I see that to get the full potential it needs to be linked to a current and extensive database and be linked to pick up the market flucs. In the interim I am going to try get the charts done and test it in real time and real money. Beton

[Chrome Prince]

That's the first step.

Not sure how you will get it linked to a database.
As far as I'm aware you can't link a database to the api.
You can capture data from the api and send it to a database, but can't send data from the database to the api, from what I've been told.

You are best to create visual basic modules with variables that "watch" the api and send bets via excel when criteria are met.

[beton]

I'll get the charts done first in excel. That will be a big step and then see from there, I hav no idea of "visual basic modules with variables that "watch" the api and send bets via excel when criteria are met." but I know that I will.

[Chrome Prince]

Public triggerQuickPickListReload As Boolean
Public triggerFirstMarketSelect As Boolean

Public Sub loadQuickPickList()
triggerQuickPickListReload = True
Application.OnTime TimeValue("10:30"), "loadQuickPickList"
End Sub


This is a module in one of my workbooks that reloads the markets at 10:30am every day, so I can leave the computer running indefinitely without having to do anything.
It's all visual basic.

[Bhagwan]

What would happen if one Layed the whole field to $100 Liability & singled out say the 3rd fav to $150 liability.

Would that show profit if say the 3rd Fav only won 14-15% of the time ,
over say 100 races.

[beton]

Shaun / Chrome Prince and interested others.
I have given this some heavy thinking on this. I have also undertaken a crash course in excel. I am still a long way from being competent as a beginner, but each day I am learning more. I know that soon I will hit a brick wall and will need lots of help. However I do want to learn and know how to do this and more.
Attached is a SS showing the chart that I want as the basis for this. Do not take any notice of the figures in the cells as they are just the average breakeven price for each ranking in my breakdown. Note that I have $200 in a few cells, this is because I consider all horses at least a 200 to one chance. There is a box showing the average breakeven for 5 runners at <$1.60 fav price. And down the bottom is the average breakeven in all the >16 runners. This is to indicate the variance as we go from 57.4% for the fav in the 5 runners down to 22.8% in > 16 runners. Equally variable is the second fav.
I want to list all these variances and lay based on those prices. The actual price will actually be a hybrid of the prices, laying to a set amount, plus a loading on certain ranked horses. How and why I achieve these prices I still need to work out and test.
My question is “Can this be done in this format?” “We would have to lay to set amounts just prior to start time. The way I see it is that the Gruss bot will tell us (1) how many runners, (2) the fav expected range 30 sec out (3) the ranking order. Then if # runners=5 and the range between $1.30 and $1.60 then the bot will be directed to lay the fav at the liability of C8, the second fav at the liability of D8, the third fav at E8, fourth at F8 and Fifth at G8. Some of these may have a zero value because there are instances already identified that it is not advantageous to lay all the horses.
The questions are for procedure. I don’t want to do all the charting to find that I have to list them differently. Or that there is 10% more selections than the bot can handle.
My initial testing at random has shown that it is worth pursuing. Thanks in advance Beton

[beton]

What would happen if one Layed the whole field to $100 Liability & singled out say the 3rd fav to $150 liability.

Would that show profit if say the 3rd Fav only won 14-15% of the time ,
over say 100 races.
Bhagwan sorry for the delay.
That is something I am trying to figure out. Ultimately I want a profitable line on every line, for every field size and price range. There will be swings but I beleive that by doing it this way I will be getting a better deal on unders and limiting the stake on overs. Testing to date says continue. Beton

[Mark]

Whilst I won't pretend to understand what your charts mean I think I know what you're trying to do, and I believe it will be a rollercoaster ride.
There will be races where you may have only the one winner ie the horse that despite its rank (wherever that may be) will be over the assessed price and not laid, and if it's right in the market the others will all be losers. Similarly I can see races where you only lay half the field.

Good luck with it but I can only stress (again & again & again) that bookies make their profits from the short end of the market, and every race is totally independent from every other race.

[beton]

Thanks Mark
I hear you loud and clear. The chart is there for procedual advice only. The figures have no meaning other than having a figure in the cell. The figures are only the average SR for all horses in all criteria expressed as odds. The final figures will be totally different. My concern will be getting matched and whether any unmatched lays will automatically go to SP. I think that I have your message and intend to take it board. Beton

[beton]

Firstly thanks for the advise given. I have given it the respect it demands. I was off in another paddock. I have finally analysed my data (43000 races) and made 11 charts each with 9 price ranges. This will be the base for future testing. Each is set up so that I can test laying for liability, variable liability, for a target amount or a varying target amount. I can now test on individual favorite, some favorites or all favorites. On the first chart I played with the variables and found that laying some of the field to a fixed even liability worked best. I made the remaining spreadsheets set to this model and found some anomalies. In some price ranges there were major losses in select field sizes and little niches which gave excellent profit. I found that by dumping 17% of the races I can make an acceptable profit on turnover with a simple basic system run on BBP. By dumping another 5% of races more profit could be gained but that would mean 3 different systems to be run concurrently.
Beton