Staggered Lay the field
I have been informed that I may breathe again from next week after being swamped with commitments.
So it is back to laying the field.
My previous efforts have been too much of a rollercoaster for too little return. Effort vs risk = not worth the effort.
Mark has his book laying method which while showing good consistent returns requires him to be at the computer race by race. This obviously suits him and I salute him. For me this just moves from one job to another. I don’t need that and decline.
Chrome Prince has been laying the field all races all venues by bot and whilst coming out in front is a massive rollercoaster and a small return on turnover.
On the BetBotPro site we have laying the top three on a ratchet staking plan which shows a return.
Both Mark and Chrome Prince have stated something similar. Lay to return a specific amount but have the amounts staggered. This is significantly different from laying the field for a fixed liability.
MichaelG supports this with his staggered liability.
Both Shaun and now evajb001 are flagging their ratings with good results.
My data base says that the public gets it right with the fav winning in direct proportion to the price and the top 5 having the loins share.
Backing the fav is still a fast road to the poor house no matter what the odds are.
From my side of the fence I want something that can be automated.
Thus I throw this into the arena. The questions are will it work. Can it be automated? Can I get pointed in the right direction? Can I get help if I have to sort it out myself?
Lay the SP fav for $30 liability. Lay the 2nd fav for $35 liability, lay the 3rd fav for $40 liability etc throughout the field. This would see the 15th fav at a $100 liability. This is the easy version.
The harder version is to take a race rating for the favourite selection. These ratings could be Shaun’s, evajb001 or Don Scott’s or best form etc pick one and stay with it.
Any comment is appreciated.
Thanks Beton

"Thus I throw this into the arena. The questions are will it work. Can it be automated? Can I get pointed in the right direction? Can I get help if I have to sort it out myself?"

Yes it can work.
Yes it probably can be automated, (others are much more qualified than me to answer this) but if you're not there to supervise you will still have the rollercoaster happening.

"Lay the SP fav for $30 liability. Lay the 2nd fav for $35 liability, lay the 3rd fav for $40 liability etc throughout the field. This would see the 15th fav at a $100 liability."

Don't do this !!! It's all out of whack. A run of decent priced winners, which is what we layers want, and you will get fried.

If someone can automate laying to payout a certain amount if a runner is a certain price then I'm in. Always, ALWAYS, make the fav the worst, or at best make it second worst and the 2nd fav the worst.

I personally think you are better of laying to payout rather than liability if you are going to stagger the selections.

Using the standard betfair option you can't do this with SP but i know gruss can display potential SP just before the start of the race so this is possible.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

beton,
Just about anything can be automated if one is prepared to get the right software or write it.
I agree with Mark, it is all out of whack. From all the data I have,
you'll do your bank in no time. With Mark's approach, the price of the favourite is lower than the SP usually because of the book percentage he makes.
Don't make the mistake of thinking if the favourite is the worst way, you'll automatically win. It entirely depends on the price you get for the exposure.

I would suggest you need to think of price brackets rather than individual selections. This can be automated and the data tells me if blindly laying favourites you will lose without somehow pushing the percentages.
There is a blind edge, but it takes work to get it.
Get the SP data and go through it as if you were laying to liability.
eg liability divided by (price-1)

You'll soon see there are distinct areas that provide profit and distinct areas that eat it up again. So you end up with a 1% edge which is a rollercoaster.
Find the areas that eat up the profit, and you'll have a smoother ride.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Thanks Mark Shaun and Chrome Prince. I read what you are saying and will sit down and ponder. In the meantime if somebody knows how this can be automated, please put your hand up.
Beton

I can automate it using Gruss as that is the platform i use, the excel integration works well.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

Thanks Shaun
In due course we might have to sit down together and see what can be done.

Lay the SP fav etc is vetoed. The lay for a return is the consensus.
Gruss can pick the possible SP ranking before the jump. I am assuming here that Gruss can also lay the field at different amounts to pay different dividends.
Lets look at a random race, (the last one) Doomben R5. Fine, 2000M, Good3, Group 3, 16 runners
Results 2,4,6 & 9
# BF$ SP WATAB $ $30 Liability $100 return. $120 return (outlay)
1 22 (23) 1.43 2100 2520
2 16.60 (9.10) 1.92 1560 1872
3 133 (99) 0.23 13200 15840
4 6.25 (5) 5.71 525 630
5 4.70 (4.40) 8.11 370 444
6 8.06 (7.10) 4.25 706 8472
7 16.6 (18.30) 1.92 1560 1872
8 107 (69.10) 0.28 10600 12720
9 20.9 (13.10) 1.51 1990 2380
10 7.60 (6.90) 3.95 660 792
11 48.6 (28.4) 0.63 4760 5712
12 23 (23.90) 1.36 2200 2640
13 35.2 (33.90) 0.85 3420 4104
14 120 (155) 0.25 11900 14280
15 66.1 (42.90) 0.46 6610 7932
16 117 (52.10) 0.26 11600 13920
32.86

Having got this far I can see that this was a poor choice to test on and I don’t think that I am on the right track, but shall continue because I learn and somebody else may as well.
Firstly I think that 16 runners may not be representative. The odds range may not be representative either. And I think the nature of the exercise was to win $100 no matter which horse won. This has essentially become a $16000 lay in the worst case scenario.

#4 won. The second fav. @$30 liability we would have lost $2.85.
@ win $100 as above then our outlay would have been $525. We would have picked up $100 on each of the other runners so we would be $1500- $525 = $975 – BF comm. $64 = $911 in front.
If the rank outsider got up then we would be out $13200, but would get $1500 back meaning that we would be $11700 out of pocket. In fact if any other than the top 4 won we would be out of pocket. If favs 5 or 6 got up it would be touch and go.
Thus it is not easy. However the 16th fav wins very few races. Going from memory it only happened once in my 43000 race database. The top 5 win >85% of the races. I can see a distinct advantage in staggering the payout. The stagger would have to be in accordance with the strike rate for each ranking. Unfortunately that strike rate varies mainly with the first favs odds and secondly the field size. Other factors only have a smaller range of variance. Thus we may have to be >$2 and 8+ runners.
I can see some heavy thinking must be done
Beton

benton,

Find Marks post from about 2 months ago. I have been looking at it and with a bit of smarts (which isn't hard) you can actually start to turn a profit on most races.

Mark,

Just a quick one for you as I don't want to hijacks bentons thread. How early do you start looking at each race? I am finding if I monitor the races earlier I can get better books (obviously picking up those early betters who take the shorter prices). So was just wondering what you think is a good time to start monitoring a race (either minutes or percentages) ? My rough idea is probably when any race hits about 90% market / 110% market then its time to start putting in your prices. If I have finished one race I am moving to the next market around 90% which is usually 5-10 minutes away. I can't do each race wihch is 2mins away from each other on a Saturday.

UB Thanks. I have Mark's thread for-mentioned. A great thread but requires one to sit at the computer to do it. I have worked hard all my life and now that I am able to stop, I want to enjoy. I want to play golf and travel, kick back and play with my grandchildren. Hence wanting to automate.

I have in the past crunched the numbers for laying to SP. Whilst being positive it was a real rollercoaster. Mark is correct in what he is saying as is Chrome Prince. I just hope that we can find a common ground that can be automated. Regards Beton

Can you post the link to that thread, i think it was the one about making a book and how to start.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________