This Might Work

[darkydog2002]

UNITAB or R+S Ratings or Eva ratings /Shauns Ratings

Selections are the 1st /3rd and 5th rated.

Cheers

[Shaun]

I will be straight up with mine when they start to fire the top 2 SR is better than the other 3 comnined.

[Barny]

UNITAB or R+S Ratings or Eva ratings /Shauns Ratings

Selections are the 1st /3rd and 5th rated.

Cheers
smokescreen was a good horse, remember that one?

[Vortech]

Just an observation. If a ratings system is producing better results with the 1st, 3rd and 5th rater, wouldn't you not adjust the weightings behind the rules of variables to try and get the 3rd and 5th sitting as 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Or is it the 3rd and 5th have lower strike rates but better value?

Regards

[darkydog2002]

I,m looking for better Value and needing minimum $4 on any of them.
My feeling is that really good priced winners i.e $16 + make up will make up for the losers I,m bound to get along the way.The other prices will be the bread and butter.
I,ve found that my yearly profit consists of striking the longer priced occasionally.

Shaun I,ve noted your comments on the top 2 and thanks.In your case I,ll accept $3 minimum.

Cheers

[beton]

I am just doing some research in my data base. 16+ runners in the $2.10-2.50 range second fav 12.63%. =8 runners same range 24.44%. in the $2.60 -3.00 range 12.75% and 23.65%. in the $3.10-3.50 range 16.55% and 22.09%.
The average overall for 2nd fav is 19.33% 1st has a 18% swing over these price and field ranges but that has to be expected. 3rd has only 3% variance 4th has 5.6% variance and we are talking 7.68% to 13.09%. These figures definately support 3 and 5. Beton

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Beton
Cheers

[woof43]

Just an observation. If a ratings system is producing better results with the 1st, 3rd and 5th rater, wouldn't you not adjust the weightings behind the rules of variables to try and get the 3rd and 5th sitting as 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Or is it the 3rd and 5th have lower strike rates but better value?

Regards
You measure your handicapping/ratings by strike rates and you should have a smooth transition right thru the range,
Wagering, will have patchy results thru the range.

It's best to try an understand if your trying develop a rating system based on handicapping factors or a wagering system

[Barny]

Barny, you are now also on notice. You have been TOUd for this post. It is not constructive and baits another member. If you object to someone's post then send in a TOU. No more warnings. Take care. Thank you. Moderator.
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[beton]

Barny
with respect
It takes half a second to ignore any post that you are not happy with. If his posts help one person then all his bad posts can be forgiven. We don't have to go too far back to when your posts were getting rubbished. Yet some of your posts did contain some valid points. I like most people here read the posts and work out for ourselves which ones we heed and which ones we ditch. I for one do not like the bitchiness that constantly raises it's ugly head.
It does not do you any justice and it does not help anybody.
Beton

[Bhagwan]

Bitchen again.
Naturally.

Stop it Man!

[Barny]

Please use the Contact Us link below for a post like this.

[Vortech]

You measure your handicapping/ratings by strike rates and you should have a smooth transition right thru the range,
Wagering, will have patchy results thru the range.

It's best to try an understand if your trying develop a rating system based on handicapping factors or a wagering system
Trying to get my head around Ratings. Are there different ratings methodologies that incorporate different variables.

So one could utlise a weight rating system, class rating system and a speed rating system or are some particular ratings incorporating different portions of these?

With the Don Scott ratings i suppose I'm trying to understand what variables are included in the final rating. If this includes a points system around class and track and jockeys etc, and you wish to include other variables like a certain points for a top jockey or barrier are you double dipping?

Does this make sense?

Regards

[darkydog2002]

My understanding 0f the Scott ratings is that they,ve covered EVERY aspect likely to produce a winner.
i.e Weight
Class
Field Strength
Jockey
etc

In my opinion any further refining is pointless

I just accept them as they are and generally bet to their prices on overlays.

Cheers
darky

[Vortech]

How do you normally measure the overlay when you are normally unable to measure the price before the jump

[darkydog2002]

I use Unitab FIXED around 5 - 10 minutes before the jump but then I,m on the computer all day.

Cheers

[woof43]

How do you normally measure the overlay when you are normally unable to measure the price before the jump

or expectation.

1 method , if you have no chance to access early markets, you will need to utilise your actual results s/r % converted to a payoff so you can measure your expectation.

[woof43]

Trying to get my head around Ratings. Are there different ratings methodologies that incorporate different variables.

So one could utlise a weight rating system, class rating system and a speed rating system or are some particular ratings incorporating different portions of these?

Regards
Yes, you should develop a number of distinct handicapping methodologies, each race will be approached from a different angle (handicapping methodology) depending on which Factor or combination of a couple of Factors determined the Favourite in Todays race and the strength of gap over the 2nd favourite.
Then you would go about determining which of your methodologies outperforms Todays race Favourite.
This involves multivariate analysis / cluster analysis.

To use an example Moeee uses Time in his handicapping, his performance with his factor is running around the 35.2% for his top rater. Joe Public's performance is running at 34.8% for pretty much the same rated races.
So when he an the public agree he performs pretty much even, and he has to try an find overlays in a dynamic market, but when they differ and the Public's Favourite is on top either thru a Factor based on Class or Box Position he starts to have a very good edge and these are the events that become your target

[Bhagwan]

This approach has its good days.

RULES
Target races with 8-11 runners.
I find these have the highest SR.

Target races where there is a 3.00+ fav in the live market.

Target Don Scott top 5 & compare prices to Betfair.

Bet 1.00 units on the Unders

Bet 1.30 units on the overs.

There will be days where there is nothing but favs under 3.00 , therefore no bet races, which can be frustrating if sitting in front of the screen all day.

There will be also days where there are heaps of 3.00+ favs.

This is where the discipline thing comes into it.
Its the short priced favs winning all day, that will kill the idea
Puntin for profit aint always easy.

Example
Wed 23rd May
Sand R3.
No.----Don Scott---Live Mrk---Bet
2------3.30----------4.40-----1.30
4------4.80----------4.80-----1.00
8------6.50----------20.10----1.30--Won 20.10 x 1.30=Ret 26.13
6------13.00---------5.70-----1.00
9------16.00---------14.70----1.00

Ret 26.13
O/L 5.60
Prof +14.50

If the fav had won, we would have broke even in this instance.