Long Shot 100 raters

[Vortech]

Reading some threads by other users and some small testing over the last couple of months, the following rules seem to be holding up ok if you can bear the run of outs. By using Bet Fair your long-shots can some nice value.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $8.50 +

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Hey Enjay.
Long time and no word from you.
Gives a bell.

[The Ocho]

Reading some threads by other users and some small testing over the last couple of months, the following rules seem to be holding up ok if you can bear the run of outs. By using Bet Fair your long-shots can some nice value.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $8.50 +

Cheers
UB's system tester since August last year says the following:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 282 selections for the System
There were 266 races for the System
There were 28 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.93%
There were $363.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $81.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.89%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 8.50 and rating = 100 and donScottRank >= 1 and donScottRank <=5 and runners >= 14

[garyf]

UB's system tester since August last year says the following:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 282 selections for the System
There were 266 races for the System
There were 28 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.93%
There were $363.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $81.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.89%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 8.50 and rating = 100 and donScottRank >= 1 and donScottRank <=5 and runners >= 14 With a 10% strike rate you should get 'APPROXIMATELY" these runs of outs.

No's of bets and losers in between.

10=7.5
100=26.9
1,000=49.2.
10,000=70.9.

Personally i myself wouldn't be able to handle the long runs,
Of outs waiting for a winner others may though.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[aussielongboat]

UB's system tester since August last year says the following:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 282 selections for the System
There were 266 races for the System
There were 28 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.93%
There were $363.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $81.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.89%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 8.50 and rating = 100 and donScottRank >= 1 and donScottRank <=5 and runners >= 14

Don't want to rain on the parade - but i think UB system tester results could be flawed - maybe it gets the BF prices after they jump where the market spread can be 160%/60%
i have found i can tinker around with a few simple filters and i can easily go into a good profit - i.e +15% POT.

when i put the same filters into my own DB - more like -15%

just an observation - be careful.

[bernie]

Don't want to rain on the parade - but i think UB system tester results could be flawed - maybe it gets the BF prices after they jump where the market spread can be 160%/60%
i have found i can tinker around with a few simple filters and i can easily go into a good profit - i.e +15% POT.

when i put the same filters into my own DB - more like -15%

just an observation - be careful.aussie, I have had the same problem. I find something that gives a good POT on the tester, but when I monitor it for any length of time the results are somewhat disastrous. Okay, I know it's backfitting but to go from +20% on the tester to -20% in testing is of some concern.

.

[norisk]

As pointed out in a recent thread there are issues with the place results of the tester, so I would suggest approaching the win results with equal caution.

[aussielongboat]

aussie, I have had the same problem. I find something that gives a good POT on the tester, but when I monitor it for any length of time the results are somewhat disastrous. Okay, I know it's backfitting but to go from +20% on the tester to -20% in testing is of some concern.

.
i wasn't talking about back fitting and then hoping for a future repeat.
i was talking about testing the same filters over the same period but testing it somewhere else - like on my DB for example.

[UselessBettor]

As pointed out in a recent thread there are issues with the place results of the tester, so I would suggest approaching the win results with equal caution.
Yeah place results are screwed on the site because of the wide ranges and lining up the palce markets with the win markets.

The win markets are ok though as they have a lot of checks to make sure the prices are right.

[aussielongboat]

Reading some threads by other users and some small testing over the last couple of months, the following rules seem to be holding up ok if you can bear the run of outs. By using Bet Fair your long-shots can some nice value.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $8.50 +

Cheers

in the period from aprill 11 until july 2012 these are the results using tattsbet prices

starters 650
places 143
plc profit -150
winners 54
win profit -22
win pot -3%
win sr 8%


cheers

aussie

[UselessBettor]

in the period from aprill 11 until july 2012 these are the results using tattsbet prices

starters 650
places 143
plc profit -150
winners 54
win profit -22
win pot -3%
win sr 8%


cheers

aussie
You would think betfair would easily cover the 3% considering its usually the longer shots where you get the good odds.

[Luxinterior]

By moving up to the true roughie zone but kicking out the despised longer roughies results may improve.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $16.00 - $26.00 (15/1 to 25/1)



Very small sample but perhaps worthy of further investigation.

Selections: 72
Wins: 9
Return: $172
SR: 12.5%
POT: 139%

[Vortech]

Also another filter to use is career starts.

Basically the base rating for the Don Scott Worksheet is the best of the last 3 runs.

So a horse can have 2 starts and be at 60. then it can jump to 24.

Check out Goodwood Race 4 number 7 for example