Lay Don Scott's Outsiders

[michaelg]

The rules I'm using:

1) $100-plus in D.S. market.
2) Didn't win at last start.
3) Not resuming at this or previous start.
4) Minimum of two career starts.
5) Placed 6th or worse at last start.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
3/1
5/9
6/1, 12
8/10

Caulfield
2/7
3/4
7/5

Eagle Farm
2/4
3/11
4/10
6/6, 10
7/10, 18

Morphetville
2/7
5/10
8/11, 13, 14

Hawkesbury
1/1
2/3
4/11
6/5

Gunnedah
1/4
3/9, 10, 11
4/10, 12
5/6, 10
6/1, 9, 11, 12, 13
7/8, 14

Wagga
1/8, 11, 12
3/6, 7, 11
4/4, 11
5/1, 11 13, 15
6/12, 13

Gold Coast
3/4
6/4, 5
7/6, 9, 10
8/5, 7

Toowoomba
1/1, 5
2/7, 8, 9
6/4, 5
7/3, 6

Cranbourne
2/8
5/7

Ascot
2/2, 3, 5, 7
4/3, 9
5/7, 10
7/10/12
8/7, 9.

There's quite a few selections at single prices in the Tele market.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - there were 73 smiles from the 74 selections for a profit of $47.58.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Hobart
1/5, 15
2/4, 11, 14, 15
4/6
5/7
7/10, 12

Geraldton
1/7, 8, 10
2/5,15
3/2
4/2, 4, 6
5/2, 6, 9
6/1
7/5

Kembla
2/13
3/16, 17
4/4, 20
5/11
6/4, 6, 8, 16
7/11
8/10

Murray Bridge
1/5
3/1, 11
4/2, 10
5/5, 6
6/1
7/4, 8, 10, 11, 12
8/4, 6, 7, 14

Sun Coast
2/2, 3
4/5, 16
5/2
7/11
8/12

Queanbeyan
1/6
2/6, 7
4/11
5/4, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13 ,14
6/6, 11
7/2, 11

Swan Hill
1/7
4/2, 6, 10, 11
6/4, 7, 9, 12, 14
7/2, 9 14, 15

Wodonga
2/9
3/7
4/2, 3, 6, 7, 8
5/9
6/1, 3, 8
7/1, 12
8/10

[The Ocho]

Congrats michaelg. There's a heck of a lot of selections there. I hope it goes well for you.

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

Yesterday was a bad day, there were two accidents for a loss of about $45. However the method is still $25 in profit.

Over the past four days there's been four accidents. Two of them were horses that ran sixth at their last start, so from today the new filter is that it must have run seventh or worse at last start. And yesterday Swan Hill 6/7 showed in the Tele that it was not resuming from a spell yet it did so in the Unitab ratings, so also from today I'll look at Unitab when determining the "spell" factor.

If I had applied these filters from commencement then the profit would have been close to $80.

[michaelg]

Todays selections:

Taree
2/2
3/4
4/1, 2, 4, 10
6/5, 11
7/2, 6, 10
8/6, 8, 11

Ararat
1/1, 2
2/2, 5, 7, 9, 12
3/16
4/7, 9, 12
6/8
7/4, 9, 11, 15

I've tightened one of the rules so that the selection must have finished seventh or worse at it's lat start. To compromise, I've relaxed two rules - the selection may have had a minimum of only one career start and the selection may also have resumed from a spell at it's previous start, even though I'll be monitoring them.

Surprisingly quite a few of today's selections are high in Unitab's ratings, Taree 8/6 has 100 Unitab points.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day using the new rules. From the 30 selections there were 30 smiles for a profit of $30.93. The liability is no longer $30 but $33 which is more convenient to type especially when there are many selections.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Sale
2/2
3/5
4/2, 5
5/1, 3, 10
6/7, 9
8/6, 10

Cessnock
1/10, 15
3/5
4/5, 11, 16
5/5
6/2, 12
7/11

Lismore
2/5, 6, 7, 9, 10
3/2, 3, 12, 15, 18
4/7, 8, 10
5/12
6/9
7/13, 14, 15

Townsville
2/5
3/4, 15
6/7

[michaelg]

Correction - Sale 8/10 is not a selection because it ran third at it's last start.

[michaelg]

I'm glad I realised Sale 8/10 was not a selection - it won.

Today there was 41 selections for 41 smiles for a profit of $39.77

[michaelg]

I've had problems with my phone/internet and can now list today's selections. There's already been six of them (all smiles) but won't record them because I didn't list them.

The selections not yet run are:

Warwick Farm
6/9, 11

Sandown
3/8, 9
6/10
7/13

Dombeen
4/5
5/5
6/1 (Tele fave) & 7
7/3, 5
8/6

Launceston
1/9, 14
2/1, 5
3/2, 5, 12
5/1
6/5, 6
7/13
8/4, 5

Balaklava
4/7
5/8, 10
7/5
8/1, 2, 5, 8

Bunbury
2/11, 16
3/3, 4, 5, 6 (Tele Fav), 8, 9, 10, 11, 16
4/8, 9,
5/5
6/10
7/2, 7
8/2, 5, 13, 14
9/14

[michaelg]

A losing day - from the 55 selections there were 53 smiles for a loss of $0.95, but if I hadn't the earlier computer problems and was able to list the six selections I missed then there would have been a profit of $3.10.

From tomorrow I'm adding another filter - the minimum number of runners in a qualifying race is to be nine. There was an accident today in a field of seven (Balaklava R8) and there have also been one or two near misses.

I remember some time ago that someone here said the BRR ratings on the Worksheet are more accurate than the D.S. market. From tomorrow I'll also be laying and recording them privately to see if they are worthwhile. Today there would not have been any accidents.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Pinjarra
2/5
3/7
4/12
5/6
7/8
9/1, 11
10/7, 12

Gosford
7/10
8/9, 14

Rocky
4/10
6/9
7/9

W'bool
8/4, 10

[michaelg]

From the 17 selections there were 17 smiles for a profit of $14.26.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Canterbury
2/11
3/9
7/10, 14

Moonee valley
6/3, 4, 5
7/2, 4, 10

Ipswich
1/5
2/4, 7, 11, 12
3/5, 7, 11
4/2
6/10, 11, 12
7/10, 13

Mornington
4/1, 10, 13
5/7, 9
6/8, 9
8/5, 10

Mt Barker
2/2, 4, 5, 11
5/7
6/8
7/6,12
8/4, 8

Mildura
5/5
6/10

Mudgee
5/1, 3
7/9

Nowra
1/5
2/1, 4, 6
4/17
5/5, 11
6/6, 12
7/3, 7, 8, 11, 12
8/2, 4

Post Lincoln
2/1, 6
3/7
4/6
6/4
7/6, 10, 13

[michaelg]

I've made a serious error by not identifying one of the filters.

The correct selections for the balance of the races are:

Ipswich
4/2
6/10, 11, 12
7/10, 13

Mornington
6/9
8/5, 10

Mt barker
2/4, 5
7/12
8/4, 8

Mildura
5/5
6/10

Mudgee
5/1, 3
7/9

Nowra
5/5, 11
7/ 3, 7, 8, 11, 12
8/4

Pt Lincoln
2/1, 6
4/6
7/6, 13

Canterbury
3/9
7/14

Moonee Valley
6/3, 4, 5
7/2, 4, 10

[michaelg]

There were 34 smiles from the 35 selections for a profit of $14.68.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Rosehill
4/10
7/8
8/1, 2

Caulfield
8/12

Eagle Farm
3/9
7/5, 13
8/9

Morphetville
4/9
7/12
8/6

Newcastle
5/9
6/10

Ballina
4/11, 13, 16
5/9, 12
6/11

Albury
1/9
2/6, 11, 13
3/9
5/5, 7, 9
6/4, 6, 13

Gold Coast
4/10
6/4
7/7
8/9

Toowoomba
1/10, 11
3/2, 4, 9
4/2, 9, 10

Ascot
8/1, 8, 13

[michaelg]

It takes too long to prepare both systems.

I'm ending the original system even though it's slightly over $90 in profit after one week. I might revive it later.

The one I'm continuing with has been going only a few days but it is outperforming the original.

Today's selections:

Hawkesbury
5/1, 8, 9

Geelong
5/2, 11
8/8, 14

Wagga
1/7
2/3, 4, 5, 9, 12, 13
3/1, 14, 15, 16
4/7
5/4, 14
6/1
8/14

Sun Coast
1/16
2,1, 7
4/2, 5, 8, 9
5/11
6/3, 10, 11, 15

Mt Gambier
3/7
4/2, 3, 6, 9
7/12

Traralgon
2/3, 4, 6
6/1
8/1, 3

Devenport
3/3, 4, 7, 12, 14
4/7
5/7, 10, 11, 13
8/4, 12

Tatura
3/8
6/12

Bunbury
1/6, 9, 14
2/4, 7
5/1, 3, 10, 14
7/3, 7, 10
8/5, 11, 12

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - there were 74 smiles from 74 selections for a profit of $63.76.

[The Ocho]

Very nice michaelg. :)

[michaelg]

Yes, T.O. so far so good.

Today's selections:

Armidale
2/3, 10
3/12, 13
4/6
5/5, 10, 11, 13
6/9, 10
7/16

Narromine
3/2, 3, 10
4/9
5/10
7/13

Terang
2/3, 5
7/14

[michaelg]

A bad day. From the 21 selections there was one accident - Narromine 3/2. Don Scott's market rated it at $100 yet it started the $3.00 fave - that's a worry!

[Lord Greystoke]

Thought you were running with BRR Michael?

LG

[SpeedyBen]

A bad day. From the 21 selections there was one accident - Narromine 3/2. Don Scott's market rated it at $100 yet it started the $3.00 fave - that's a worry!I reckon the market will usually be closer to correct in this and similar circumstances, Michael. The ratings have missed something obvious, IMO.
A pro punter of my acquantance has a saying, "when the ratings and the market disagree wildly ignore the market at your peril".

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

I'm running with the BRR but deleting the Form, Cond and Cons columns. It seems to be working at the moment.

Speedy Ben - I've layed quite a few selections that have been in the market but they were all smiles. However, what you say has much merit because it's generally accepted that the market is the best indicator. Because I often lay them as early as possible I don't know what their starting prices will be. I'll continue and hope for the best.

Today's selections:

Mackay
5/5

Taree
2/7, 8
3/16
5/1, 2, 6
6/11
7/5
8/9, 10, 13

Wangaratta
1/14
2/5, 7
3/1
4/5
6/9,10
8/3, 12

Wangaratta 1/14 has already been run, and was a smile. But because I couldn't list it before now I will not record it as a success.

[Lord Greystoke]

I see (said the blind man)...

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

From the 20 selections there were 20 smiles for a profit of $18.26.

[The Ocho]

From the 20 selections there were 20 smiles for a profit of $18.26.
:) x 20

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Canterbury
1/13
7/1

Strathalbyn
1/12
2/1, 2
4/7, 14
8/14

Dombeen
2/11
5/4, 5
6/8
8/14

Ascot
3/8, 10
4/9
6/2
7/2
8/7,11

Launceston
1/5, 9
2/4, 10
3/8, 13, 15
4/1, 11
6/7
7/11

[michaelg]

There were 31 smiles from the 31 selections for a profit of $25.31.

[Lord Greystoke]

How has that bank of yours been building since the large withdrawal Michaelg?

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

Unfortunately, it's not.

My Lay Outsiders and Lay the Field methods are doing well and my bank increases, but every now and then due to lack of self discipline I lay horses that "can't win" and eventually one of them does, and I have to start all over again.

[Lord Greystoke]

Are you recording bets as you go?

LG

[aussielongboat]

this lay approach will probably be OK;
these are the results for last years using 2 factors
1. DS>=100-1
2.2 starts or more

across every horse race covered by tatts bet since dec 2010
Values
starters # wins wsr wprofit wpot # plc psr plprofit plcPOT
172809 8340 5% -48683 -28% 28361 16% -44687 -26%

you would have to allow a bit more for the improved SP on BF - but there is plenty to play with at -28%

cheers
aussie

[michaelg]

L.G. - I only record the bets layed on my systems, not the reckless ones even though most if not all, of my $10,000 profit came from them.

My Lay Outsiders is showing about a 25% POT (depends how one calculates POT on lay betting) and slightly over 100% POT on Lay the Field.

Aussielongboat, I'm somewhat uneasy, but not uninterested when we can identify a profit of approx 30% on Lay betting using TAB divvies. And at the moment I've got a full plate, that's (and lack of interest) probably the main reason I'm no longer looking at laying no.1 based on Unitab's ratings. There were six selections of them yesterday and all would have been smiles.

[aussielongboat]

L.G. - I only record the bets layed on my systems, not the reckless ones even though most if not all, of my $10,000 profit came from them.

My Lay Outsiders is showing about a 25% POT (depends how one calculates POT on lay betting) and slightly over 100% POT on Lay the Field.

Aussielongboat, I'm somewhat uneasy, but not uninterested when we can identify a profit of approx 30% on Lay betting using TAB divvies. And at the moment I've got a full plate, that's (and lack of interest) probably the main reason I'm no longer looking at laying no.1 based on Unitab's ratings. There were six selections of them yesterday and all would have been smiles.

just as a clarification the results i published weren't unitab ratings =- they were filtered don scott prices taken from racing and sports

[michaelg]

Thanks, Aussielongboat.

Today's selections are:

Goulburn
2/1
6/7, 11
7/5, 14
8/5, 7

Kyneton
3/12
4/6, 8
5/9, 10
8/1

Rocky
1/5, 8
7/3, 5, 13

Geraldton
2/2
3/3, 12
5/2, 10
6/6
7/7, 13, 14
8/1, 11

There are no scratchings shown on Unitab or NSWTAB for Geraldton so I have to assume there are none today.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

Scratchings for Geraldton are

Race 7 - 4,14,15,16
Race 8 - 8

[michaelg]

Thanks, Try.

Even Betfair loaded the scratchings before Unitab and NSWTAB listed them - shame,shame shame unless there was some internal problem out of both TABs control.

[michaelg]

Today's 28 selections turned into 28 smiles for a disappointing profit of $11.18.

Today is the end of the first week since introducing the filter that a qualifying race must have a minimum of 9 runners.

During the week there's been 252 selections for 249 smiles for a profit of $99.28 laying each selection for a liability of $33.

[Lord Greystoke]

SR v impressive at nearly 99%, michaelg

What is the hypothetical outlay for these?

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

I lay each selection for a fixed liability of $33 on S.P.

I recently started to lay them for higher liabilities (while still recording them as $33) but a couple days ago decided against it because of the short space of time of the existing method (7 days) and have since reverted back to the original $33 liability.

If the success continues I will certainly increase the current lay-bet of $33 liability.

[Lord Greystoke]

Did you record the outlay?

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

The outlay is $33 per selection.

Because there's been 252 selections the outlay has been $8,316 for a profit of $99.28. I wonder how this compares with Maria's outlay/profit?

[Lord Greystoke]

When you say the outlay is $33, don't you mean the max liability / risk if there is a winner, for each bet? In other words, if the selection gets up to win, you pay out $33 max, if it looses, you gain a return which is dependant on the odds offered?

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

PS so although the total amount risked is $8,316, the actual outlay is just the $33 risked x no. of accidents. IS this correct or did I just fail 'Lay betting for dummies' ??

Cheers LG

[The Ocho]

Both of those are correct Mr LG.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks Mr. TO.

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi, L.G.

The outlay is $33 per selection.

Because there's been 252 selections the outlay has been $8,316 for a profit of $99.28. I wonder how this compares with Maria's outlay/profit?

Yes, would be interesting to see how Maria yield compares.

LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

T.O is correct. It can be confusing. I think some people are conditioned to the Exchange but not S.P. as it's not been available for all that long. They are two completely types of laying, and again it can be confusing.

I think laying horses that are fancied in the market would do better being layed on the exchange whilst outsiders do better on S.P. (as I do) - but that's just my opinion.

[Mark]

(1) When laying there is no outlay. There is risk.
(2) The risk (in this case) is always $33 so the payout is not $33, it is $33 plus the bet taken. eg @ 33/1 the payout is $34, @ 2/1 the payout is $66.
(3) Laying outsiders one out is not the fastest way to the poor house, but you will get there eventually, as seen by MG's returns and the need to have a strike rate of close to 100%. 28/28 sounds great but at an average price of 80-85 it's madness. No matter how you look at it, the risk return is way out of kilter. One bad day could literally wipe out months of profits.

Sorry to be the (unwanted?) voice of reason, but this could also apply to most "systems" put forward here.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks for the clarity, chaps.
No voice of reason answer is unwanted 'Mark', not in this case at least!

When you say 1 bad day could wipe out months of profits, assume you
mean several consecutive losses after a long string of smiles.. How likely would this be with a 90%+ SR?

Cheers LG

[Mark]

Correction, the payout @ 2/1 is $49.50, @ evens would be $66.

LG, not sure how likely, but it will happen. Even say 3 days of "just" 90% strike rate would be bad.

[michaelg]

Hi, Mark.

Are you talking about laying on the Exchange or S.P? If there's an accident on S.P. the payout is always $33. I know because it's unfortunately happened, and also a few seconds after the jump the selection is shown with a red $33 against it's name.

[Mark]

Laying SP is at liability, so the risk is $33, not the payout.

[michaelg]

Every time I have an accident my payout is $33. I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

I'm having too many troubles with the R&S website so I'll list the selections that I've been able to identify.

M'ville
7/9, 11
8/10,11

Bendigo
2/9
4/4, 13
7/13
8/8

Ipswich
2/8
3/4
4/9
5/10
7/3, 4

Pakenham
3,1, 2, 8, 9

Sun Coast
1/8
2/1, 2, 4, 10
3/9

If I can get back into the R.S. website I'll try to list any more selections.

[michaelg]

Today's Muswellbrook selections:

1/10
3/7, 8, 11, 12,13
5/1, 4, 6, 12
6/1, 8, 10
9/2.

[Mark]

[QUOTE=michaelg]Every time I have an accident my payout is $33. I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

QUOTE]

There's no argument to be had MG, liability and payout are not the same.
Imagine you're a bookie, which is what laying is about and somebody wants to have $1 @ 33/1 or $34. The bet is 33 - 1 and $34 appears on the ticket. The risk or liability is $33 and the payout is $34. Yes you're liability is always $33 but you also give back the $1 bet you're holding. If this was not the case then you would not receive the $1 when the horse loses. Same if the horse was even money and the punter wants $33 on. The bet is $33 - $33 and $66 appears on the ticket. The liability is (still) $33 but the payout is $66. So when it loses you receive $33. You have to look at it that before the race is over you have written a bet to risk $33.
If that doesn't explain it have a look at any of your bookie accounts (I'm assuming you would have some). When you have a $1 bet on at 33/1, $1 is removed from your account until after the race and if it wins you receive $34. Your balance goes up by $33 however the bookie has paid you $34.

[michaelg]

Today's Scone selections:

4/4, 9
6/7, 9, 11
7/5
8/5, 10

[Lord Greystoke]

I see your point now Mark.
However, what I am really trying to get to I guess is how much is the bet that michaelg is taking on when he lays for a liability of $33

$1 = 1 unit each time OR does it vary?

Michaelg??

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Mark, not being too savvy with maths I don't know if I follow your explanation.

I always thought the liability and payout were one and the same thing when laying single selections on Betfair S.P. I can understand laying with bookies, but on Betfair only the payout is shown which I assume is also the layer's liability because that is the amount he loses/pays out if the selection wins the race.

[The Ocho]

Its all getting a bit complicated. If you have a maximum liability (like $33) THAT IS ALL YOU will pay out of your account regardless of the money taken in from the other party.

$34 horse - If the horse wins you pay out your liability of $33 and give the guy his $1 back.

$2 Horse - If you've decided to have a maximum liability of $33 on a horse at this price and it wins you pay out your liability of $33 but also have to give back the back bet that the other party would of placed which, in this case, happens to also be $33 making it $66 going into the other guys account ($33 of your money and his bet returned).

$10 Horse wins with a liability of $30. The backer would of had to place a $3.33 bet to win $30. You therefore have to pay him $30 from your account and his $3.33 back as well. If the horse loses you keep his $3.33 (less commission of course).

I hope this helps (and I hope its right).

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents from the 42 selections for a loss of $33.97.

There have now been 289 smiles from 294 selections for a profit of $65.31. My best day provided a profit of $65.76 so it's grounds to hope today might recoup most of the loss and not begin the road to despair.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Michaelg.

Have been thinking about looking at lg1 / lg2 with your DS outsiders but this time apply them in the reverse. In other words, take out anything that can win. Not suggesting that it would eliminate all accidents, but it might help to reduce your risk.

What do you think?

Cheers LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks, T.O.

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents from the 42 selections for a loss of $33.97.



As an initial trial for lg1/2 trim, are you able to list the two accidents?

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

The bad boys were:

Pakenham 1/2
Sun Coast 2/4

[Lord Greystoke]

The bad boys were:

Pakenham lg1 = yes / lg2= yes
Sun Coast lg1 = no / lg2= yes

where yes = trim



See above

Cheers LG

[Mark]

No alarm bells ringing when a 95% strike rate equals a bad day???

[Lord Greystoke]

PS the 2nd race in Sun City was what one might refer to as a 'skin head' = there's going to be pain!

skinhead => lg1 and/or lg2 indicating that any of the selections can win

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

I've had alarm bells from day one.

Yesterday, and the day before, the smiles were disappointing, but overall the profit before then was about $1 per race, so even though I might be deluding myself I'm still somewhat optimistic things might change.

[Lord Greystoke]

I've had alarm bells from day one.

Yesterday, and the day before, the smiles were disappointing, but overall the profit before then was about $1 per race, so even though I might be deluding myself I'm still somewhat optimistic things might change.

Here is the gold in your focus, I feel.

It's why people on here are mostly interested in 'what keeps michaelg interested'

Keep it coming, master blaster.

LG

[michaelg]

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement, L.G.

Let's hope you're spot-on and things improve.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Rosehill
4/10
5/11
8/7, 11

Flemington
4/9
6/6
8/1

Eagle Farm
5/8
6/13
7/15
8/10,11

Morphetville
7/6

Kembla
2/9
4/5

Bathurst
5/6, 9
7/3, 10

Albury
1/3, 7, 8, 10, 13
4/10
5/10, 12
6/4, 10

Gold Coast
5/10
7/1
8/14

Stawell
3/9, 15
5/10, 11

Toowoomba
1/2, 3, 8
2/11

Ascot
5/10
6/4, 10 ,16

It's a pity yesterday's Murwillumbah R3 was called off because we woud have won $12.73.

[SpeedyBen]

Correction, the payout @ 2/1 is $49.50, @ evens would be $66.

LG, not sure how likely, but it will happen. Even say 3 days of "just" 90% strike rate would be bad.Mark
I have a lot of experience laying on BF and the above is not correct. For a 2/1 chance ($3) the payout if the horse wins is $33. If it loses I would win $16 approx. At evens the figures are $33 loss on a winner or $33 profit if the horse loses. For a 10/1 shot the loss is $33 and the win is $3.30 if the horse loses.

[Mark]

Hi Speedy, you can back every 2/1 shot with me then.
You put on $16.50 (to win $33) and I will gladly pay you $33 every time they win.

The bet to lose $33 @ 2/1 or $3 is........... $33 to $16.50.
The figure on the ticket (the payout) is $49.50.

If it wins, the bookie loses $33 and pays out $49.50.
If it loses, the bookie wins the $16.50 that the punter has bet.
It could not be more simple.

I've also had a bit of experience laying....around 29 years.
I do this for a living.

[michaelg]

A good day.

From the 43 selections there were 43 smiles for a profit of $48.53 which has recouped yesterday's loss of $33.97.

[SpeedyBen]

Hi Speedy, you can back every 2/1 shot with me then.
You put on $16.50 (to win $33) and I will gladly pay you $33 every time they win.

The bet to lose $33 @ 2/1 or $3 is........... $33 to $16.50.
The figure on the ticket (the payout) is $49.50.

If it wins, the bookie loses $33 and pays out $49.50.
If it loses, the bookie wins the $16.50 that the punter has bet.
It could not be more simple.

I've also had a bit of experience laying....around 29 years.
I do this for a living.If I put 16.50 on a 2/1 shot I expect to win $33. What could be simpler than that? I get my $16.50 back and the bookie pays me $33 of his money. You really are confused.

[SpeedyBen]

Here is a fuller explanation. You are thinking like a bookie not a BF layer.

If I put 16.50 on a 2/1 shot I expect to win $33. What could be simpler than that? I get my $16.50 back and the bookie pays me $33 of his money. You have misread my post to think that I don't expect my stake back if betting with a bookie. Of course I do. Where you are confused is that when laying on BF the backer does not actually give me his money up front. When the race is over I either take his 16.50 or he takes my $33.
The reason that the bookie pays out $49.50 is because he has taken the backers money up front. That does not happen on the exchange. BF hold both amounts until the contest is decided. I'm sure you haven't had 29 years laying on BF.

[Mark]

Dear oh dear.

Where did I say I've had all those years on BF?

I'm so hopelss at this game that I'm off overseas for 3 weeks..........and I don't have a "real" job.

Good luck Ben, you're going to need it.

[Mark]

If I put 16.50 on a 2/1 shot I expect to win $33. What could be simpler than that? I get my $16.50 back and the bookie pays me $33 of his money. You really are confused.

$16.50 plus $33 in my book equals $49.50.
Here's a hint for you, go to BF put in $16.50 @ $3, in turn tick the liability and payout boxes. The liability is $33, the payout is $49.50, it's all there in black & white.

That's it from me, time to pack.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Hobart
2/2, 9
3/6, 10
5/2, 15, 17

Canberra
4/8, 10, 11, 12
7/1

Hawkesbury
6/10, 12
7/10

Sun Coast
1/6, 10
6/6

Benalla
3/2, 8, 14
6/7, 9, 11
7/10

Bordertown
3/2, 3
6/5, 9, 10
8/10

Pinjarra
2/4, 6, 7
3/3, 9, 11
4/3, 6
6/2, 7, 8, 12
7/11
9/10, 11

[michaelg]

Another bad day. Lost most of yesterday's profit.

There were 43 smiles from 45 selections for a loss of $27.49.

From day one there's been 382 selections for 7 accidents for a strike rate of 98% for a profit of $86.34. So its still going strong.

[Lord Greystoke]

Another bad day. Lost most of yesterday's profit.

There were 43 smiles from 45 selections for a loss of $27.49.

From day one there's been 382 selections for 7 accidents for a strike rate of 98% for a profit of $86.34. So its still going strong.

Can you provide details for the 2 accidents?

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

The accidents are Benalla 6/7 and Pinjarra 3/3.

If the Form, Cond and Cons columns had not been deleted then they would not have been selections because their price would have been less than $100. But I'm sure there have been instances that removal of these columns have prevented some accidents.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks Michaelg.
Looks like very little could be done by way of trimming a $62 long shot. Unless you didn't lay it of course!

ON a positive note, my lg1 trimmer left all 16 legs of the 4 major quaddies in place on Saturday, which means an interesting lay proposition for the selections that got trimmed, I guess. Still can't quite get excited by the lure of the lay, however. Horses for courses, I guess.

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Good luck with your quaddies, L.G.

Today's selections:

Dubbo
1/1, 3
3/8
4/8

Pt Mac
1/3, 9, 15, 19
2/8, 10, 12
4/1, 13, 14
5/9, 10, 11, 12, 13
6/4, 11
7/13, 14

Bairnsdale
1/10
2/13
3/12
4/1, 10

What I like about this method is the amount of action. There is at least one selection in about half the races. Today I will lay something in 13 of the 22 races.

[Lord Greystoke]

What I like about this method is the amount of action. There is at least one selection in about half the races. Today I will lay something in 13 of the 22 races.

Name of the game I reckon.. keep active! (trying not to loose one's wick in the process). Applies to a lot of things, eh what?

LG

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg,

Have you broken down the losing lays in price brackets over the testing period?

Could you perhaps set a max price ceiling of $50 to keep profits up and prevent a blowout with a $200+ winner?

[SpeedyBen]

Hi Michaelg,

Have you broken down the losing lays in price brackets over the testing period?

Could you perhaps set a max price ceiling of $50 to keep profits up and prevent a blowout with a $200+ winner?If laying to a liability as Michael does it's better to leave the really long ones in. They don't cost him any more when they win than a 3.0 pop and they sure lose plenty of times.

[michaelg]

TheSchmile, I have broken down the prices of the losing lays but unfortunately I can't find anything consistent with them.

Because I only lay the selections on S.P. and not on the exchange, an accident be it a fave or a huge outsider is fortunately a loss of only $33 regardless of price, so I'm not too worried about a blowout if there's a $200 accident, whilst an accident at this price on the exchange might wipe most if not all of the profit, depending on its price. Laying on the exchange the higher the price of the accident then the more is lost.

I would not be surprised that if I had layed the selections on the exchange and not on S.P., the method might not even be in profit, which it currently is. With S.P. the loss is not high but so too the profit is relatively small. It's a trade-off but I think it might be safer to lay outsiders on S.P. than on the exchange.

Fortunately there have not been any accidents today yet, but it can happen when least expected.

[michaelg]

Please ignore.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg and SpeedyBen,

I would argue that it would only make sense to leave the really large priced horses in if they were making a profit at level stakes laying them. At this stage it's probably way too early to know.

I'm also not sure it would make sense to lay horses at higher than the DS $101, $201 or $301 price?

Anyway, just throwing ideas out there. Time will tell and I wish Michaelg as always the best of success!!

[michaelg]

TheSchmile, thanks for the wishes.

I could be wrong but I think that the method is currently showing a profit laying both the favoured and outsider selections. But I would have doubts if I had layed them on the exchange. From the current seven accidents I think six of them were at fairly large odds.

[Lord Greystoke]

TheSchmile, thanks for the wishes.

I could be wrong but I think that the method is currently showing a profit laying both the favoured and outsider selections. But I would have doubts if I had layed them on the exchange. From the current seven accidents I think six of them were at fairly large odds.

And probably less than 6 with LG's 'long shot trimmer' switch?

LG

[The Ocho]

To work out level stakes just work out for a $1 win for all successful lays (93.5c with commission removed) and then deduct all your losing horse prices.

[michaelg]

Thanks, The Ocho. When I get time I will do so by checking the prices of the seven accidents shown on the Betfair Results site.

Today's 28 selections became 28 smiles for a disappointing profit of $13.13.

[michaelg]

I've calculated how the system by laying $33 S.P. compares to $1 level stakes laying on the exchange from commencement (7/Dec) of the method.

By laying level stakes of $1 on the exchange the seven accidents would have removed $305 from the bank, but the 403 smiles would have added $377 to the bank for a net profit of $72.

As comparison, laying $33 S.P. per selection for the same period generated a profit of $99.47.

Because the price of the average accident on the exchange was $43 that if there were two more accidents then the method would most likely be in the red.

However, during the same period laying S.P. it would have taken 3 more accidents for the method to break-even.

The above figures suggests that laying S.P. is the way to go with this method?

[The Ocho]

Yes michaelg. I reckon it is always best to lay to SP when laying outsiders as then you know how much you will lose should one of those animals actually win a race. If laying at flat stakes a big $500 shot (or whatever) would just wipe you out.

It was an intersecting comparison and it's good to see that at level stakes you are showing a profit.

Well done and keep it up. :)

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

For some reason after analysing the positive results of the method laying S.P. versus laying level stakes on the exchange my confidence is now inexplicably a lot lower. However, the results say my pessimism should be unwarranted, only time will tell...

Today's selections:

Kilmore
3/3
5/3, 6

Townsville
4/4
5/2, 7
7/9

M'brook
1/4, 10, 11
2/6, 12
3/4, 6
5/11
6/10
7/14

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks, T.O.

For some reason after analysing the positive results of the method laying S.P. versus laying level stakes on the exchange my confidence is now inexplicably a lot lower. However, the results say my pessimism should be unwarranted, only time will tell...




98% SR and a superior return using SP lay method as per your assumption and your confidence is taking a hit??

I must be borderline suicidal then !

LG

[michaelg]

L.G.

Thanks for your confidence. I hope you're right.

[michaelg]

L.G. you were right, thankfully - so much for my intuition/gut feeling. I think it may have been a natural negativity because I increased the bets by huge amounts. Tomorrow they're back to $33, and I must not (hopefully) give in to impatience until there has been many more selections... and success to give me more confidence.

From today's 19 selections there were 19 smiles for a disappointing profit of $7.52.

[SpeedyBen]

I'm not sure if this is of interest to you, Michael, but I set my bot to do what you were doing today but laying at the price available 5 seconds before the jump. The result was very similar with a profit of 7.68.

[michaelg]

Speedyben, I assume you layed on the exchange.

My records show that since Friday 7 December laying S.P. outperformed laying on the exchange even though the prices are generally the same, as your profit today was almost identical with mine.

If you are going to continue laying the selections it might be better to do so on S.P.

Good luck whatever you do.

[Lord Greystoke]

L.G. you were right, thankfully - so much for my intuition/gut feeling. I think it may have been a natural negativity because I increased the bets by huge amounts. Tomorrow they're back to $33, and I must not (hopefully) give in to impatience until there has been many more selections... and success to give me more confidence.

From today's 19 selections there were 19 smiles for a disappointing profit of $7.52.

This I understand. LG

[The Ocho]

For some reason after analysing the positive results of the method laying S.P. versus laying level stakes on the exchange my confidence is now inexplicably a lot lower. However, the results say my pessimism should be unwarranted, only time will tell...
There's no need to be like that based on your figures at least. Nothing wrong with making more money laying at SP AND, at the same time, restricting your liability to only $33 than laying at level stakes and not winning as much.

Now larger stakes are a different story but the stats are going great so far so keep up the good work.

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

However, it's reverse confidence with me - the better the results the less confident I feel. Today like yesterday, I look at the selections on Unitab and my confidence drops.

Today's selections:

Gosford
5/10
6/11
7/9, 10

Mornington
4/10
7/9

Eagle Farm
1/9
2/1, 9
4/4
5/12
6/7
7/9, 14, 15, 16

Gawler
4/6, 7, 10
5/3
7/4, 10, 11
8/2

Launceston
2/3, 7, 8
3/5, 8
4/6, 9, 10
5/2
6/7, 12
7/6
8/8, 12

Ascot
1/8
2/2, 3
3/12
4/1, 14, 15
5/7
6/2

[michaelg]

Correction - Eagle Farm race 4 has less then 9 starters so it is not a qualifying race.

[michaelg]

My lack of confidence has been vindicated. The very first selection, Eagle Farm 1/9 was an accident.

Hopefully the other selections become smiles and recoup the loss of $33.

[michaelg]

Correction - Mornington 4/10 is not a selection as it is resuming from a spell.

The Tele does not show this but Unitab does. I'm not having a good day.

[michaelg]

Another accident - Gawler 5/3.

[The Ocho]

I'm not having a good day.
:eek:

[michaelg]

The method's still about $40 in profit.

I don't know if this is any consolation but laying them on the exchange would be showing an overall loss.

Hopefully today is just an exception and it can lift itself off the floor.

[The Ocho]

Hi MG. When you say laying them on the exchange, what do you mean by this? Aren't the prices at which you would lay say 10 seconds before the off roughly the same as the starting price?

[michaelg]

Yes, the prices on the exchange and S.P. are almost identical.

However, on S.P. the horse is layed on liability.

If a horse's price is $10 it can be layed on the exchange for the minimum of $5 which means that if it wins the race the layer pays $45 to the backer.

However, on S.P. it can be layed for the minimum of $30. If the horse is beaten the layer gets about $3 ($30 divided by 10) from the backer, and if it's price is $300 the layer wins about $0.10 from a lay-bet of $30 ($300 divided by 30) but he can only lose the outlay of $30.

In other words, the layer nominates how much he can lose on S.P but on the exchange he nominates how much he can win.

If one is not familiar with laying S.P. it can at first be quite complicated.

[The Ocho]

Thanks MG. I do understand this and if laying with my bot you can lay to liability at a lower liability than SP - like $5 liability for example (but then you will eventually get banned if you did this).

What you're really saying there is laying at level stakes of $5 with then a variable payout.

as long as your still in front, that's the main thing.

[michaelg]

A disasterous day yesterday.

There were three accidents from 45 selections for a loss of $70.18.

There have now been 10 accidents from the 474 selections for a profit of $30.81. The method's in front but sinking quickly, and if it goes into the red I might probably end it.

[The Ocho]

and if it goes into the red I might probably end it.
Don't do anything too drastic like that. Just stop the system and try something else. ;)

[michaelg]

Hi, T.O.

That's what I meant. I'll presently continue it, and also am considering laying the TAB no.1 as per Unitab's ratings. I think I listed the rules here somewhere with the six selections for that particular day (10 Dec) for a profit of $8.50. On checking past results on paper, it seems to be doing quite well. The drawback is that there are not many selections, but if it is successful that's no big deal.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wyong
1/3, 11, 14
2/16
7/15

Rocky
1/5, 8
2/8
7/13

Seymour
4/5
7/7

Albany
2/3
3/2, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15
4/1, 4
5/10, 12
7/6

Moonee Valley
3/2


Isn't today according to the Mayan calender the end of the world?

[The Ocho]

Isn't today according to the Mayan calender the end of the world?

Nah, don't worry about it. That's tomorrow. ;)

[Lord Greystoke]

Nah, don't worry about it. That's tomorrow. ;)

You must be an optimist !

Cheers LG

[beton]

Nah, don't worry about it. That's tomorrow. ;)
If it happens it will show those naysayers something. Without plan A the believers are not going to be around to gloat

[lomaca]

Nah, don't worry about it. That's tomorrow. ;)The O
That's the way I look at it too.

But to dispel the myth and with it the secret hope of many, the calendar doesn't in fact signifies the end of the world but the end of a cycle.
Slight but significant difference.
Like winning or losing, both are part of punting.

[SpeedyBen]

Yes, the prices on the exchange and S.P. are almost identical.

However, on S.P. the horse is layed on liability.

If a horse's price is $10 it can be layed on the exchange for the minimum of $5 which means that if it wins the race the layer pays $45 to the backer.

However, on S.P. it can be layed for the minimum of $30. If the horse is beaten the layer gets about $3 ($30 divided by 10) from the backer, and if it's price is $300 the layer wins about $0.10 from a lay-bet of $30 ($300 divided by 30) but he can only lose the outlay of $30.

In other words, the layer nominates how much he can lose on S.P but on the exchange he nominates how much he can win.

If one is not familiar with laying S.P. it can at first be quite complicated.Michael
I lay to a liability every day ( and night ) on the exchange. There are several products which you can use. Evolution is free and i can't believe anyone would use BF's interface in preference to Evo once they try it. Evo doesn't do SP tho.
When I read your reply to my post #104 I thought you must have been under the impression that you couldn't lay to a liability on the exchange but wasn't sure.

[michaelg]

Speedy Ben,

not knowing about bots but from what I read here about them I got the impression that they all only applied to the exchange and not S.P.

[stugots]

Betting Assistant can be used to make SP backs & lays

[Lord Greystoke]

But to dispel the myth and with it the secret hope of many, the calendar doesn't in fact signifies the end of the world but the end of a cycle.
Slight but significant difference.
Like winning or losing, both are part of punting.

That's my take on it too... this could be all about: Out with the old, in with the new. A major turning point - whatever that relates to may well be down to one's own personal perception(s)?

We shall see !

Cheers LG

[Lord Greystoke]

PS

Atlas Shrugged,
And kept the world spinning on his shoulders for another 24 hours at least, whilst he had a think..

Here's to the next chapter chaps, and perhaps a wee drink?

LG

[rails run]

Nah, don't worry about it. That's tomorrow. ;)-ANNOUNCEMENT-
Due to the end of the world this Friday, December 21st, 2012, Tabcorp can not guarantee fulfilling payouts on any future Jackpots arising from exotic wagers placed on this date. In the likely event of a big wad of cash sitting in our fat account our policy is that withheld monies will be divided amongst members of the Board for maintenance of the Tabcorp bunker in an undisclosed location. The Board would like to thank you for your contribution over the years and wish you a very fast apocalypse.

[SpeedyBen]

Will it be after the races are finished, do you know?

[The Ocho]

And just when I think I've found the holy grail.

Oh crap!!

[Toil]

-ANNOUNCEMENT-
Due to the end of the world this Friday, December 21st, 2012, Tabcorp can not guarantee fulfilling payouts on any future Jackpots arising from exotic wagers placed on this date. In the likely event of a big wad of cash sitting in our fat account our policy is that withheld monies will be divided amongst members of the Board for maintenance of the Tabcorp bunker in an undisclosed location. The Board would like to thank you for your contribution over the years and wish you a very fast apocalypse.

Hehe wd funny.

[michaelg]

Yesterday there were 22 smiles from the 22 selections for a profit of $13.39.

Do we know exactly how and when the world will end? And if so, is it Daylight Savings time or not? I've forgotten but didn't our beloved P.M. state this a week or so ago even though some people believed she was joshing us? Should I prepare today's selections for lay D.S's Outsiders method just when I thought yesterday's profit of $13.39 was putting the method back on track. Oh, what to do? It is too confusing and upsetting, I wish it was all over right now.

[The Ocho]

Yesterday there were 22 smiles from the 22 selections for a profit of $13.39.

Do we know exactly how and when the world will end? And if so, is it Daylight Savings time or not? I've forgotten but didn't our beloved P.M. state this a week or so ago even though some people believed she was joshing us? Should I prepare today's selections for lay D.S's Outsiders method just when I thought yesterday's profit of $13.39 was putting the method back on track. Oh, what to do? It is too confusing and upsetting, I wish it was all over right now.
I think they said midnight on 21 Dec 2012 Mayan time so for us that would be tomorrow some time so you might as well list today's selections.

[jose]

" our beloved P.M. "

Thought you were a Trinadadian(?) MG.

No matter though, we are all doomed sometime today apparently.

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O. but I am now even more upset because I've got another 24 hours of this excrutiating suffering. Ah well be positive, it'll soon be all over. In spite of that I'm still concerned that there's no horse racing in the afterlife...does anyone know the answer to this?

Jose, I'm only Trinidadian when the West Indies are playing cricket, especially when they are winning.

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks, T.O. but I am now even more upset because I've got another 24 hours of this excrutiating suffering. Ah well be positive, it'll soon be all over. In spite of that I'm still concerned that there's no horse racing in the afterlife...does anyone know the answer to this?



Think you will find there is plenty of action out there. Very poor internet connection however so bit difficult to check the results. Ho hum, bit of a bu**er!

LG

[TheSchmile]

Yesterday there were 22 smiles from the 22 selections for a profit of $13.39.

Do we know exactly how and when the world will end? And if so, is it Daylight Savings time or not? I've forgotten but didn't our beloved P.M. state this a week or so ago even though some people believed she was joshing us? Should I prepare today's selections for lay D.S's Outsiders method just when I thought yesterday's profit of $13.39 was putting the method back on track. Oh, what to do? It is too confusing and upsetting, I wish it was all over right now.
Hi Michaelg,

In the situation I was facing, to the point of desperation, where I just simply couldn't find an answer, I consulted the calender and predictions of 'Bernie'. According to his prophecies, our lives actually ended as we know it, the very second we filled out our first TAB ticket or had a casual flutter at the track. So in truth our lives have already ended and we are merely killing time in a world of suspended reality, where the only things that matter are the punt, a good tipple and the love of a fine feline. :D

On a brighter note, I managed to squeeze in 10 pints and get a leg over last night, all due to the possibility of the world ending.

On a more serious note, whatever happens, please don't end the world before before the last leg of the Quaddie at Canterbury tonight. Pppppplease!!!!!........

[michaelg]

TheSchmile, I hope you get time to spend the winnings from tonight's Canterbury's quaddie, so too all winning punters because we can't take it with us.

Today's selections:

Canterbury
1/1, 2
2/2
4/7
5/9
8/4

Moonee Valley
5/10
6/2
7/3, 9

Geraldton
3/1, 5, 14
5/6
6/5
7/6, 7

Wagga
1/5, 13
3/10, 16, 17
4/5
6/7, 9

Lismore
3/7, 12
6/8, 15, 18
7/8, 9, 13

Wangaratta
2/1, 2, 4, 10
3/11
4/1, 7
7/8
8/10, 11

Ipswich
1/5, 10, 11
3/1, 13
4/11, 13
5/8, 10, 11
6/9, 12
7/8

[The Ocho]

Think you will find there is plenty of action out there. Very poor internet connection however so bit difficult to check the results. Ho hum, bit of a bu**er!

LG

LG - I think they have a cloud server or two up there so the inter-galactic-net should be pretty good.

Thanks, T.O. but I am now even more upset because I've got another 24 hours of this excrutiating suffering. Ah well be positive, it'll soon be all over. In spite of that I'm still concerned that there's no horse racing in the afterlife...does anyone know the answer to this?

MG - I think there are a few good horses going around up there like Phar Lap, Carbine, Seabiscuit, Dufflecoat Supreme and Mr Ed to name just a few. Should make for an interesting race or two although they've all had a pretty decent spell.

[jose]

" Jose, I'm only Trinidadian when the West Indies are playing cricket, especially when they are winning. "

Fair enough. Long time no drinks tho.

[michaelg]

Yes, they would've died of thirst a long time ago, but fortunately they won the 20/20 World Cup just a few months ago.

I didn't have a bet, didn't have the courage to do so.

[jose]

Can't go the 20/20 game myself MG.
Alright for those with an attention span of a goldfish IMHO.
Don't mind the one day game, but much prefer the 5 day game. Bit more like "Cricket" if you will.

Having said that, it would have suited your boys down to the ground about 25 years ago, Viv, big Joel, etc.

[michaelg]

Hi, Jose. I like all the three forms of cricket. One of my friends (Aussie) is very disappointed if a Test match ends in a draw even if Australia comes from an impossible position to attain the draw. He says a draw is a waste of five days.

I don't know if I can agree with the "attention span" theory. I remember some time ago reading in a Pommie magazine that the reason why we Aussies like the rugby codes and not football is that we have a short attention span especially when it comes to low scoring games.

[jose]

To each his own I suppose MG.
Some of the great contests have ended in draws, again IMHO.
I tend to be a bit old fashioned though.

[Toil]

Well its midnight, I can say I've managed to have a laugh after having read the last dozen posts so all good if nothing else lol.

[michaelg]

Yes, Jose, to each his own.

Yesterday there were 55 smiles from the 56 selections for a profit of $31.26.

To date (15 days) there have been 451 smiles from 552 selections for a profit of $75.46.

[michaelg]

A correction. The above posting should read 541 (not 451) smiles from 552 selections. Maybe the relief of the world not ending overnight has affected my typing.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
6/5, 13
7/4

Dombeen
2/6
8/19

M'ville
6/2
8/9, 15

Darwin
4/6

Kembla
1/12
4/6, 13
5/7, 11
7/11

Hobart
4/3, 9, 10, 12
5/4, 8
7/10

Moree
6/16

Gold Coast
2/1, 7, 9, 10
7/9, 10
8/11, 12

Toowoomba
2/4, 10
3/10
4/5, 6, 10
5/8

Ascot
6/14, 15, 16
7/4, 10, 11

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 42 selections there were 41 smiles for a profit of $14.02.

[michaelg]

Today's selections;

Taree
1/9
3/8, 10
4/12
6/2, 7

Sun Coast
3/10
5/7, 11, 12
7/13, 14
8/2

Queanbeyn
4/4, 6, 8, 10
5/5, 6, 12
6/10

Ballarat
2/3
3/4,12
4/3, 12
8/13

Horsham
3/10
6/6, 10, 12, 13
7/13

Port Lincoln
6/9
7/3, 10
8/7

Bunbury
1/2
2/11, 12, 14
3/1, 11
4/7, 8, 12
5/10
7/2, 4, 9

[michaelg]

A good day. There were 49 smiles from the 49 selections for a profit of $36.86.

There have now been 631 smiles from 643 selections for a profit of $126.34. It's still maintaining it's strike rate of 98%.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Tamworth
1/6
2/5
3/3, 15
4/11, 13
6/10, 11

Orange
2/6, 8, 10
5/11
6/11
7/2, 12

Sale
3/3
4/7, 10
7/3, 11
8/12, 14

[michaelg]

From today's 22 selections there were 22 smiles for a profit of $15.93.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Rosehill
4/5
7/15
8/15, 19

Caulfield
8/7

Eagle Farm
4/7

Morphetville
5/4, 14, 16
7/2
8/12

Wodonga
3/1
6/11, 14

Newcastle
1/6
4/4, 12
5/1, 7, 12, 13

Ballina
3/10
4/4, 7, 12, 13
5/7, 11

Devenport
3/8, 10, 11, 12
4/2
7/4, 8, 9

Pinjarra
5/10, 13, 14, 17, 18
7/11, 12

Geelong
4/1, 4
6/7

[michaelg]

Correction - Geelong R6 is not a qualifying race as there are only 8 starters.

[michaelg]

Another correction - Caulfield R8 is not a qualifying race because there are less than 9 runners.

[michaelg]

A bad day today. There were 36 smiles from 38 selections for a loss of $34.08. One of the accidents was $297 on S.P. and won easily, and the second accident was at single figures.

However, I noticed both of them had been credited 3.5 points or more in the From column on the D.S. Worksheet. I checked this and discovered there are quite a few winners and placegetters, especially if its last start was 14 days or less. I even considered applying this as an each-way method but the strike rate is not all that high and one could easily lose patience.

From tomorrow if a selection has 3.5 or more Form points it becomes a no-selection. In spite of today's two accidents the method is currently $118.19 in profit.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Gosford
2/8
5/12, 13
6/6, 8, 10, 12

Rocky
1/9
3/4, 8
8/12

Mornington
2/5, 7
7/12

Geraldton
2/7
5/11
7/1

[michaelg]

Yesterday's 17 selections were beaten for a profit of $20.25.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Cranbourne
2/1, 9
3/10, 13
4/15

Ipswich
6/4, 8, 11

Coffs
2/11
5/2, 6, 8
6/11, 12
7/10, 11
8/1, 3, 4

Canberra
5/8
7/2, 6

[michaelg]

Correction - Ipswich R6 nos 8 and 11 are not qualifiers. Both selections for Coffs R6 are scratched.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day. From the 17 selections there 17 smiles for a profit of $18.14.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Canterbury
8/7

Moonee Valley
4/2
6/12

Dombeen
3/9
4/4
6/12, 15
7/2. 7, 8

Morphetville
8/9

Scone
3/5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14
6/1
7/4, 12

Stony Creek
2/6
5/7

Corowa
4/10
5/2
6/10

Gold Coast
3/9
7/11
8/11

Ascot
3/9
7/2
8/4, 10

[michaelg]

There were 31 smiles from the 31 selections for a profit of $26.71.

[michaelg]

I forgot to list today's selections. If anyone's following the method - sorry!

There were 44 selections for 43 smiles for a profit of $7.46

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Gosford
1/4, 10
4/1, 6, 11

Nowra
2/7
3/2, 3
5/4, 9
6/13

Echuca
2/12, 13
7/4

Toowoomba
1/13
2/14
3/3, 11, 12
4/11
6/9, 12, 13

Pt Lincoln
4/4, 12
5/2
6/12
7/2, 14

Mt Barker
2/10
3/3

I wish everyone a Happy and profitable New Year.

[michaelg]

A losing day. There was one accident from the 30 selections for a loss of $12.19.

To date (23 days of laying the seletions) there have been 826 smiles from 842 selections for a profit of $178.64.

[aussielongboat]

A losing day. There was one accident from the 30 selections for a loss of $12.19.

To date (23 days of laying the selections) there have been 826 smiles from 842 selections for a profit of $178.64.

Which at level stakes if you were backing them means POT of -21%.
I have done the numbers for all of 2012 and the POT using tattsbet prices is -35%.

the difference would be the better prices earned on BF when the long shots gets up.
this laying approach has legs - the difficulty is finding a way to get the bets on efficiently.
in 2012 there were 28083 selections or 77 per day across all gallops covered by tatts.

if anyone knows of bot that will automatically scrape them out of excel i'm all ears

[UselessBettor]

if anyone knows of bot that will automatically scrape them out of excel i'm all ears
You would need to code one or get someone to do it for you. The easiest way is to just get someone to do it on freelancer. It would probably cost you around $100-$200.

[michaelg]

Out of interest if all the 842 selections had been hypothetically bet for $1 at the final price on Betfair's exchange then the return would have been $637 which includes a $200 winner for an overall loss of $205. There were 8 winners that paid less than $20 which is a bit of a worry because D.Scott's market rated them at $100 or higher.

I started recording the results on Friday 7 Dec but the first day of laying for the method was actually Thursday 6 Dec which unfortunately I omitted to transfer to my computer records that I keep on Notepad. On that day there were 24 selections for 24 smiles for a profit of $20.10, but because it's too much trouble to adjust the records I will ignore it.

[aussielongboat]

You would need to code one or get someone to do it for you. The easiest way is to just get someone to do it on freelancer. It would probably cost you around $100-$200.

yes i will try them.
i have used odesk in the past i have found their people very good

[aussielongboat]

Out of interest if all the 842 selections had been hypothetically bet for $1 at the final price on Betfair's exchange then the return would have been $637 which includes a $200 winner for an overall loss of $205. There were 8 winners that paid less than $20 which is a bit of a worry because D.Scott's market rated them at $100 or higher.

I started recording the results on Friday 7 Dec but the first day of laying for the method was actually Thursday 6 Dec which unfortunately I omitted to transfer to my computer records that I keep on Notepad. On that day there were 24 selections for 24 smiles for a profit of $20.10, but because it's too much trouble to adjust the records I will ignore it.

i had 2 filters
ds> 100
starts > 9

i will max out the price at 100 and see what happens

[michaelg]

To recap the rules which I've changed/hopefully improved from the original.

1) minimum of 9 starters,
2) finished 7th or worse at last start,
3) not resuming from a spell now or at previous start,
4) must not have been credited with 3.5 points or more in worksheet's Form column. This would have eliminated at least three accidents that I'm aware of.

[michaelg]

I forgot to include the most important rule:

Must be $100 or more in Don Scott's market.

[UselessBettor]

Micheal,

How about 1 more filter. Only lay those that have a bookies odds of $20 or higher.

Although this means you will will get less as the betfair odds will be longer it will also drop out those selections which won at less then $20. Its also a good complimentary filter to use as confirmation that the don scott markets are not out of whack with reality.

The problem with this filter is you need to do it at race time which does limit the system.

[michaelg]

U.B, you're right about having to be the computer, which does not suit me. I've had some profitable smiles that were high in the bookie's market and also the TAB's market. I would assume with some (hopefully) confidence there is a good reason(s) why D.Scott has rated them so poorly. However, it doesn't always work that way. Time will tell...

Today's selections:

Rosehill
2/3
6/11
8/14

Flemington
2/13
3/2
6/14
7/3

Gold Coast
1/10
2/1
3/4, 9
4/10
5/2
8/13

Morphetville
3/11
4/5
6/10
8/4, 14

Inverell
4/11
5/2, 3

Port Mac
5/8, 9, 10
6/8, 12

Ascot
2/6
3/6, 11
4/11
7/7, 8, 11
8/2, 3, 6, 10, 12, 16
9/1

Hanging Rock
2/7

Terang
3/1, 2, 5
6/9

Mornington
3/3, 8
7/7

[The Ocho]

U.B, you're right about having to be the computer, which does not suit me.
You're right about not being a computer, it wouldn't suit me either. hehe :D

To date (23 days of laying the seletions) there have been 826 smiles from 842 selections for a profit of $178.64.
But seriously, you are going great guns with this mg. Well done. Keep it up.

[michaelg]

Hi, T.O.

Yes, it's not going too bad. Today, there's been one accident so far (Pt Mac 5/8 - Unitab's sole 100 pointer), yet it's about $10 in front at the moment.

Correction - Rosehill 8/14 is not a selection because there's less than 9 runners in the race.

[michaelg]

A nightmare. From the 46 selections there were 4 accidents for a loss of $70.56.

There have now been 18 accidents from the 888 selections for a profit of $108.08. There's a lot of rebuilding to do, hopefully it's not the beginning of the end.

[UselessBettor]

michaelg,

bad runs happen. Just don't stop following this now because of it. Stopping now is what 99% of other punters would do.

[SpeedyBen]

Micheal,

How about 1 more filter. Only lay those that have a bookies odds of $20 or higher.

Although this means you will will get less as the betfair odds will be longer it will also drop out those selections which won at less then $20. Its also a good complimentary filter to use as confirmation that the don scott markets are not out of whack with reality.

The problem with this filter is you need to do it at race time which does limit the system.I think that this is excellent advice for any longshot laying method, UB. I have previously posted in this thread that where ratings and the market are way out of whack the market will prove more accurate more often. A bot would be needed and I see that TheBetEngine is still available for $16 per month.

[Mark]

As ever, no offence intended in any way to any poster on here, but laying outsiders 1 out is doomed to failure, as I pointed out at the start.
This particular method has a fantastic strike rate of 98% and is officially in trouble. The risk so far (@ $30 per lay) has been $26640 & the profit is just over $100, the risk/reward ratio is way out.

Good luck if you stick with it.

[michaelg]

After yesterday's disaster I'm considering applying a price-limit for the selections, say of $50 or whatever. However I expect to continue as is, but limiting the price is just an option.

Yesterday's four accidents paid for the Win:

Morphetville 8/14 - $50
Pt Mac 5/8 - $9
Pt Mac 6/8 $13
Ascot 9/1 - $27

Mark, yes, laying outsiders is fraught with danger, however most of the method's accidents haven't been outsiders but been fancied in the real market, but unfortunately not Don Scott's.

I'll continue as is because it might just be a weak phase the method's currently going through, but as mentioned above limiting the prices is an option to consider.

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Newcastle
4/1, 7

Sale
3/3

Dombeen
4/10

Narrogin
1/4
2/4
4/9, 10
6/9, 10
7/9, 10

Murray Bridge
5/5, 6, 10
6/1
8/7, 8, 9

Sapphire Coast
4/12
7/11

[SpeedyBen]

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.Michael
I see where you can limit your max odds but I can't see where you can limit your min odds at SP. Am I missing it?
My comment was in relation to the suggestion that you only lay over 20.0.

[michaelg]

Sorry, Speedy Ben. You're right, I've never limited the odds on laying and when I saw the facility I assumed incorrectly.

That is now out of the question - pity.

[michaelg]

There were 20 selections today for 20 smiles for a profit of $14.23.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wyong
1/5
2/4, 11
4/6
5/9
6/7

Rocky
1/5
5/5
7/3, 4

Geraldton
3/2, 5, 6
7/7

Albury
3/1
5/2, 11
6/1
7/2

Kyneton
3/4
4/14
7/7
8/2

[michaelg]

From the 22 selections there were 22 smiles for a profit of $20.98.

[UselessBettor]

From the 22 selections there were 22 smiles for a profit of $20.98.
Nice work.

[michaelg]

Yes, U.B, wasn't a bad day, it's slowly building back up. The highest it's ever been was on 31 Dec with a profit of $190.74, it's currently in profit of $143.29...still some way to go.

Today's selections:

Wangaratta
5/7
6/8

Ipswich
4/5
7/13

Esperance
1/3
2/5
3/10
4/6, 11
7/6

Port Mac
1/11
3/5
5/8
8/4, 6, 10, 12

Tamworth
2/2, 3
4/3
5/8, 15
6/7
8/12, 13

Cranbourne
7/5
8/6

[michaelg]

Due to a late scratching Wangaratta race 5 is not a qualifying race.

[michaelg]

Not a good day. From the 26 selections there were 25 smiles for a loss of $7.60.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
3/6
7/11
8/9, 12

Caulfield
8/1, 2

Eagle Farm
1/16
3/12
4/10
5/5
6/7
7/7
8/10, 12

Morphetville
6/2, 3, 7, 10
7/10

Kembla
1/4, 10
2/3, 8, 12
3/1, 7, 8
5/10
6/10

Parkes
3/6
7/8

Pakenham
1/2
2/5
3/3, 4, 7
4/10

Gold Coast
3/2, 11
6/13
7/1, 2, 4, 7

Toowoomba
4/6, 10, 11
5/5, 7
6/4, 5, 7

Asot
4/4, 7
5/4
6/6, 11
7/6

[michaelg]

Amendment - Pakenham R1 is not a qualifying race because after scratchings there are less than 9 runners.

[michaelg]

Correction - there is only one selection in Toowoomba R6, which is no.2.

[michaelg]

Today there were 52 smiles from 53 selections for a profit of $10.40.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Coffs Harbour
2/10
3/8, 9, 15
4/5, 7, 10
5/6, 7, 10, 14

Warrrnambool
3/2, 6
4/4, 5, 10, 15, 17
5/5
7/8
8/10

Gilgandra
8/7

Sun Coast
6/2, 9, 12
7/12
8/3, 8, 15, 16

Kilmore
2/10

Pinjarra
1/4, 9, 10, 14
2/6
3/2, 3, 12, 13, 14
4/3, 11, 13
5/14
6/1, 12
8/12, 16, 17

[michaelg]

From the 48 selections there were 48 smiles for a profit of $31.05.

There have now been 1037 smiles from 1057 selections (a strike rate of 98%) for a profit of $177.14.

[SpeedyBen]

From the 48 selections there were 48 smiles for a profit of $31.05.

There have now been 1037 smiles from 1057 selections (a strike rate of 98%) for a profit of $177.14.Excellent result Michael. I run a similar laying method on UK races which I started in July. After 1057 selections there had been 1039 smiles. Uncanny, I thought.
I lay to a liability of 20% of my bank and increase the liability amount in line with the bank. My bank has increased 347% since July with the biggest drawdown being 23% of the bank.

[michaelg]

It's truly amazing that the number of our selections and smiles are almost identical, and the profit is also worthwhile. Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections are:

Moruya
2/7
5/14
7/8, 12
8/2, 10

Cessnock
2/2
3/3, 5, 12, 15
5/7, 12

Stony Creek
2/1
3/1, 7, 9, 13

[Lord Greystoke]

It's truly amazing that the number of our selections and smiles are almost identical, and the profit is also worthwhile. Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections are:

Moruya
2/7
5/14
7/8, 12
8/2, 10

Cessnock
2/2
3/3, 5, 12, 15
5/7, 12

Stony Creek
2/1
3/1, 7, 9, 13

Hi Michael, going well I see mate - please you kept at this one I am guessing?

Slightly different angle here (hope you don't mind)...
Of all the win systems / scenarios you have plotted using Ns or Don Scott, which would you say was the most simplest + showed most promise??

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

I prefer the above method simply because there is a fair bit of action and I like laying...and at the moment it is in profit.

There have been other methods, mainly betting, but it does not take me long to lose interest because they are not Lay methods even though a couple of the Place methods have shown a profit.

I'm now looking at another Lay method at the top end of the market which mainly lays the short-priced faves, which I'll start today on a new thread.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi, L.G.

I prefer the above method simply because there is a fair bit of action and I like laying...and at the moment it is in profit.

There have been other methods, mainly betting, but it does not take me long to lose interest because they are not Lay methods even though a couple of the Place methods have shown a profit.

I'm now looking at another Lay method at the top end of the market which mainly lays the short-priced faves, which I'll start today on a new thread.

Nice one mate. Shhhmo-kin, Smokin' Joe ! LG

[michaelg]

Not a good day. From the 19 selections there was one accident for a loss of $8.45. Still, it's not too damaging.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wagga
8/10

Echuca
4/2

Townsville
2/10
3/1, 10
6/8
7/8, 10

[michaelg]

Today's eight selections were eight smiles for a very small profit of $3.76.

[Lord Greystoke]

Today's eight selections were eight smiles for a very small profit of $3.76.

Am hoping you will come up with a 'Collar' strategy, one of these days... i.e. win a little more with a Cap an' a Floor

LG

[michaelg]

L,G,

I've been looking at other enhancements/filters but nothing positive so far, and I'm somewhat hesitant in reducing the action.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
3/11
4/9
8/8

Bunbury
2/1
4/2, 5, 7
7/2
9/9, 12, 16

Devenport
1/4, 6, 8
4/10, 12
7/8, 11
8/10, 13, 14

Gawler
5/1, 10, 12
8/7

Sandown
6/3
7/12

[Lord Greystoke]

Thanks MG,

Please ignore all comers regards changing what you do or the prolificacy of your ideas (including me)... you consistently win the day and long may it continue!

LG

[michaelg]

Hi, L.G.

It's good for us all that we share ideas and suggestions. Someone might, even when least expected, come up with a brilliant and profitable one, or at least interest/trigger our grey matter to tick over.

Today there were 27 selections for 27 smiles for a profit of $18.94. The method's now hit an all-time high of $199.84. It seems it takes two steps forward and then one backwards.

[UselessBettor]

Today there were 27 selections for 27 smiles for a profit of $18.94. The method's now hit an all-time high of $199.84. It seems it takes two steps forward and then one backwards.
Althoough I feel like I am just repeating myself I have to say

Nice work again.

Thats a coverage of at least 6 losers which for long shots is quite a good start for live testing a system.

[SpeedyBen]

Hi, L.G.

It's good for us all that we share ideas and suggestions. Someone might, even when least expected, come up with a brilliant and profitable one, or at least interest/trigger our grey matter to tick over.

Today there were 27 selections for 27 smiles for a profit of $18.94. The method's now hit an all-time high of $199.84. It seems it takes two steps forward and then one backwards.Michael
Based on my own experience I would think that a bank 5 times your liability would be a conservative and safe one, barring a mathematically unlikely occurrence. In that case you have doubled your bank. Congratulations.

[The Ocho]

Good stuff mg. Keep it up. :)

[michaelg]

Many thanks for the encouragement, gents.

Even though the method's currently $199.84 in profit, my real profit is much more than that because when I'm at my computer I'm often tempted (and more often than not succumb) to have large bets even though I record them as a standard $33. However, whenever I think of increasing the size of the standard bet I get cold feet, but that may soon change...maybe not.

[SpeedyBen]

Hi, L.G.

It's good for us all that we share ideas and suggestions. Someone might, even when least expected, come up with a brilliant and profitable one, or at least interest/trigger our grey matter to tick over.

Today there were 27 selections for 27 smiles for a profit of $18.94. The method's now hit an all-time high of $199.84. It seems it takes two steps forward and then one backwards.Michael
2 forward and one back is a good result. Once you get used to it you can be satisfied with it. Just a comment, not advice.

[SpeedyBen]

Michael
With regard to increasing your basic bet ....
What would the biggest drawdown on your bank have been following the rules that are now in place, may i ask?

[The Ocho]

Many thanks for the encouragement, gents.

Even though the method's currently $199.84 in profit, my real profit is much more than that because when I'm at my computer I'm often tempted (and more often than not succumb) to have large bets even though I record them as a standard $33. However, whenever I think of increasing the size of the standard bet I get cold feet, but that may soon change...maybe not.
There are many and varied ways of increasing your bets (if you want to and feel comfortable doing it).

A few are:
- Using a percentage of your bank - maybe changing it daily or per race.
- Doubling your bank and then raising the bet but not by double - slowly reduce the % of bank your risking while, at the same time, increasing your stakes.

There's many more.

[michaelg]

S.B,

the first day of the method was Friday 7 Dec, in which a profit of $50.74 was made but the very next day it suffered a loss of $45.94 resulting in an overall profit of $4.82. This is the date when the method has been at its lowest. However the method began a day earlier on Thurs 6 Dec for a profit of $20.10 which for some unknown reason I did not record here, so I've omitted it from the results. The method has from Fri 7 Dec changed slightly which purposely has made me less uncomfortable.

T.O,

I've today increased the liability to $66 per bet. For convenience I'm maintaining a multiple of $33 and will record the results as if the selections have been layed for $33, not $66. I know Maria limited the size of her daily bet according to her bank but she was laying on the exchange for a predetermined profit, whilst on S.P. it's a predetermined loss. However it currently interests me and will probably give it more thought.

Today's selections:

Gosford
1/8
6/10

Penola
2/3
6/4
7/11

Albany
1/6
2/8, 13
3/5
4/8, 9
7/10, 11
8/7, 10, 13

Sun Coast
7/10

Ballarat
2/8
3/5, 13
4/9
5/1
6/12

[The Ocho]

I reckon doubling your profit and then also doubling the bet is not such a good idea.

Let's say you have a $300 bank and $30 liability (10% of bank). If you double your bank to $600 then I don't think you should keep laying at the same liability of 10% (in this case $60 liability).

I would slowly reduce the percentage of bank your laying with until you get to 2% or maybe 5%. In the above instance I would start laying to say 8% liability of the $600 making each bet $48 liability.

You are now raising your stakes but in a smaller proportion than your bank is increasing. As time goes on this would then give you more leeway by losing less of your bank should the method hit a bad trot.

Anyway, that's my 2 bobs worth (which is about all it is worth) :rolleyes:

[Lord Greystoke]

How about this for a new turn on an old turkey...

1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Take 50% profit off the table = 150
3. Stake / Liability up 50% => 45

A bird in the hand and a better crack at the bush? LOL !!

LG

[SpeedyBen]

How about this for a new turn on an old turkey...

1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Take 50% profit off the table = 150
3. Stake / Liability up 50% => 45

A bird in the hand and a better crack at the bush? LOL !!

LGThat is a very sound old method, I reckon, LG. Always believed in it, never tried it !!

[The Ocho]

How about this for a new turn on an old turkey...

1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Take 50% profit off the table = 150
3. Stake / Liability up 50% => 45

A bird in the hand and a better crack at the bush? LOL !!

LG
The only thing is you are still risking the same percentage of bank. Unless of course you count the $150 as the start of a second bank in case the first should fly away.

[Lord Greystoke]

The only thing is you are still risking the same percentage of bank. Unless of course you count the $150 as the start of a second bank in case the first should fly away.

Yes, still 10% of bank but at least not double the original bet which was your initial concern.
You being pretty slick with the 'double-barrel bank trick', what might your suggestion be in this respect?

Perhaps for Plan B...
1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Split into 2 banks(1 Reserve) and back to step 1
3. If we double again, split again and take 1 bank off the table
4. if we loose the bank, Reserve kicks in and it's back to step 1.

A double play keeps the reeper away?

LG

[The Ocho]

Yes, still 10% of bank but at least not double the original bet which was your initial concern.
You being pretty slick with the 'double-barrel bank trick', what might your suggestion be in this respect?

Perhaps for Plan B...
1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Split into 2 banks(1 Reserve) and back to step 1
3. If we double again, split again and take 1 bank off the table
4. if we loose the bank, Reserve kicks in and it's back to step 1.

A double play keeps the reeper away?

LG
Sounds good but I actually like the 450 / 150 one better. That way you are at least raising your stakes but, at the same time, starting your reserve bank to flourishing.

[Lord Greystoke]

More of a capital = build the stack man,
Rather than income = take some profits?

Flourish rather than nourish?

LG

PS did you end up shipping in that new kitchen gadget?? Recently I had the pleasure of taking 4 x $100 lots off the table and actually spending some of it on a mini trip with the missus plus some left to go again. Money well spent and gives me a little more length on the rope connected to my dog collar etc etc

[The Ocho]

More of a capital = build the stack man,
Rather than income = take some profits?

Flourish rather than nourish?

LG

PS did you end up shipping in that new kitchen gadget?? Recently I had the pleasure of taking 4 x $100 lots off the table and actually spending some of it on a mini trip with the missus plus some left to go again. Money well spent and gives me a little more length on the rope connected to my dog collar etc etc
Very nice LG. In the good books has gotta be better than the opposite.

Yes. I got the dishwasher but now we have put in an insurance claim for the water damage which has been accepted however I may probably now need to pay the excess of $200 and you can guess where that will be coming from. :(

[michaelg]

A bad day - from the 21 selections there was an accident for an overall loss of $14.30.

[The Ocho]

A bad day - from the 21 selections there was an accident for an overall loss of $14.30.
Sorry mg. Every time I say your doing well you always lose the next day. I think that has happened on any thread where I've said it to you. I'm serious - no kidding.

I will refrain from wishing you luck on any further methods including this one but I will be looking on and getting involved in any other queries or discussions.

[SpeedyBen]

Sorry mg. Every time I say your doing well you always lose the next day. I think that has happened on any thread where I've said it to you. I'm serious - no kidding.

I will refrain from wishing you luck on any further methods including this one but I will be looking on and getting involved in any other queries or discussions.Ocho
Do you think it's the horses or the jockeys that read your posts?

[The Ocho]

Ocho
Do you think it's the horses or the jockeys that read your posts?
Probably both plus the trainers and stable hands :D

[michaelg]

Hi, The Ocho, if the positions were reversed I probably would also feel some guilt.

I remember some time ago one of my friends was suffering from an on-and-off painful ailment and everytime I wished him the best, the pain would soon return. This happened three times and I began to suspect it was my fault for causing it.

I dreaded wishing him well and told him so, but he replied it was pure coincidence - and he was right. The "bad luck" immediately ended and the problem is now non-existent.

T.O, wish me well for today.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Ballina
1/14
2/12
3/5, 8, 13
4/3
5/5
6/2

Cranbourne
4/8
6/7

Mornington
5/8
7/1

Canberra
5/6
6/11
7/8
8/7, 12, 13

Ipswich
4/3
5/5

Port Lincoln
5/10
7/5

Esperance
3/4, 5, 8
7/1, 4, 10

[The Ocho]

Hi, The Ocho, if the positions were reversed I probably would also feel some guilt.

I remember some time ago one of my friends was suffering from an on-and-off painful ailment and everytime I wished him the best, the pain would soon return. This happened three times and I began to suspect it was my fault for causing it.

I dreaded wishing him well and told him so, but he replied it was pure coincidence - and he was right. The "bad luck" immediately ended and the problem is now non-existent.

T.O, wish me well for today.
H mg. I just want to wish you well.

[michaelg]

Thanks, T.O.

Correction - there is no qualifier in Ipswich R4. No.3 was a last start winner and is also $41 in D. Scott's market.

[michaelg]

Not the best of days. There were 23 smiles from 24 selections for a not too damaging loss of $4.03.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Eagle Farm
1/8
6/12
8/6, 10

Gold Coast
1/14
2/4, 7, 12
3/8, 16
4/4, 9
5/16
6/9
7/9, 11
8/11, 13, 14

Flemigton
4/9
5/7
7/8

Morphetville
4/9
5/10
6/8
8/1

Rosehill
6/3

Newcastle
4/2, 9, 13
6/1

Glen Innes
1/8, 13
2/4, 8
3/5, 16
4/8
5/6, 11
6/2, 14

Queanbeyan
4/4, 6
7/8, 11

Bairnsdale
3/1, 5
4/5
6/7

Toowoomba
1/6, 11
2/6, 12, 13

Ascot
2/5
7/8

[SpeedyBen]

Michael
By way of encouragement I started ( in the UK ) laying to a liability of $20 and have increased my liability in line with my bank and last night I laid to a liability of $100 for the first time. I'm planning to level off at $300 if I get there.
Just for the record I have a lower limit of $21 with no upper limit. The median price of my lays has been $29.

[Lord Greystoke]

if I may offer a wee jest...

In a bit of a hurry, are we speedy??

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

if I may offer a wee jest...

In a bit of a hurry, are we speedy??

Cheers LGOne of my girlfriends called me Speedy. I thought it was a compliment at the time.

[Lord Greystoke]

And if she could've seen your form on the lay now,
She might have just lasted the distance, eh?

LOL !! LG

[michaelg]

Another losing day. There were two accidents from the 55 selections for a loss of $9.75.

The last three days have all lost.

[The Ocho]

Another losing day. There were two accidents from the 55 selections for a loss of $9.75.

The last three days have all lost.
And I only wished you luck in two of them. ;)

Not to worry though as you haven't really lost too much. I won't say anything about tomorrow other than it's another day.

[michaelg]

T.O, if you had wished me luck on the third day would you have unfairly taken the blame? - it's only coincidence.

One of yesterday's accidents - Flemington 7/8 was having it's first start after a break of 56 days yet it was not shown in either the Telegraph or Unitab as resuming from a spell. Anyone find this surprising?

The method is currently $171.76 in profit. The highest it's ever been was $199.84 which was last Tuesday, and as there's been a few days where the profit has exceeded $30 I'm somewhat hopeful for the success to continue.

[jose]

MG, a spell can be different depending on which source you use.
Tattsbet is 12 weeks, and from memory one of the form guides uses 60 days, and so on and so forth.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Jose. It would probably be more accurate if the experts declare what a spell constitutes instead of leaving it up to the opinion of whoever compiles the different form guides.

Today's selections:

Cowra
4/9, 11
5/8
8/13

Sun Coast
6/11
7/4, 6

Port Mac
1/2
2/6, 7, 8, 11, 14
3/5, 8, 9
4/7
5/2

Werribee
4/6, 7
6/8
7/14

Hobart
1/3
2/11
3/1, 6, 13
5/9, 10, 12, 15
6/7
7/2, 13, 14
8/1

Kyneton
1/1, 11
2/3, 13
3/8, 11
4/6
7/6

Strathalbyn
6/8, 9
8/5

Geraldton
3/2, 11, 13
4/1, 8
6/2, 6, 9
7/10

[michaelg]

T.O. in your last post you did mention today, but said nothing specific about it, except that it's another day. Even though you did mention today there were no accidents, in fact I don't think any of the selections even Placed which is unusually very good and it probably indicates there's nothing to your "curse".

After three successive losing days the method won today.

From the 56 selections there were 56 smiles for a profit of $40.84.

There have now been 1224 smiles from 1248 selections (a strike rate of 98%) for an all-time high of $212.60.