Lay Don Scott's Outsiders

[beton]

Six months ago I was laying <$30. Then I noticed a decline. I had a check on some Betfair results which showed it as marginal. I have since done a run on back data. which showed laying the fav only was no good, laying the top 2 or the top 3 was no good and laying those <$20 was no good. Or at least not worth the effort. Laying the field to a set liability was ok but erratic lost 2 months in a row. Currently trying to back some and lay the rest.

[michaelg]

Beton, I've had success Laying The Field for different liabilities, here, U.K and U.S but stopped because to do so I'd have to be at my computer. I sometimes Lay The Field here based solely on the Daily Telegraph Market, but not at the moment because my interest is with the Don Scott Outsiders method.

I used to Lay The Field using the liabilities of $30 to $34, or a multiple of them. I was at one time laying for the liabilities of $300 to $340 and showed a profit in the majority of races, and it wasn't uncommon to have an all-green field.

If Laying The Field interests you it might be worthwhile to experiment.


There are two further selections for today's D.S. Outsiders method (my form guide doesn't have Geraldton). The selections are:

Geraldton
3/6, 16.

[SpeedyBen]

With a bot you could increase your stakes per successful bet rather than just per day. I remember even Maria would have preferred to do that. :)Yep. I could do that with my GHB Lite bot but haven't bothered. It moves the bet up and down in line with the bank which I don't believe in. Long before I heard of Maria I have always operated what I think she calls the ratchet plan, which is to bet a fixed % of the highest point that the bank has reached and never reduce the bet.

[SpeedyBen]

Sorry mate, I didn't factor in you increasing liability by daily profit which really boosts profits after only 4 days, excellent. Great staking method.
RPThat's the way I work it. See my post above. The % increase is on the original bank. If I lose one now it will be 20% of the current bank and thus more than 20% of the original. As I said it is like watching a share on the market. Lots of little ups and occasional corrections. It is like a share on speed though with about 3 months share trading crammed into a day or two.

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 23 selections there were 23 smiles for a profit of $122.00.

[UselessBettor]

That's the way I work it. See my post above. The % increase is on the original bank. If I lose one now it will be 20% of the current bank and thus more than 20% of the original. As I said it is like watching a share on the market. Lots of little ups and occasional corrections. It is like a share on speed though with about 3 months share trading crammed into a day or two.
20% is a very high percentage. Maybe you start to lower it for safety reasons.

[Lord Greystoke]

25% stake is a material recovery staking level imho. Anything close to this and I have reset to scratch, with good results.

Cheers LG

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Grafton
2/8, 12
4/11

Benalla
4/14
7/15

[evajb001]

macs, quick question on BBP, I've tried using it but found it chewing away at my internet usage in rapid pace and had to basically give up using it after 2-3 days. Have you found the same problem?

[Rinconpaul]

Evaj,
Still haven't used it due to the problems with internet security it causes. They emailed the following message a couple of days ago:

When you recently visited our website did youcome across any issues or problems at all?

Did you have trouble taking the trial of any software?

Did you have trouble ordering the software?

Well the answer is yes to all of the above! I wouldn't recommend them at all.
Cheers
RP

[The Ocho]

macs, quick question on BBP, I've tried using it but found it chewing away at my internet usage in rapid pace and had to basically give up using it after 2-3 days. Have you found the same problem?
On the bot that I use it has an option to adjust the "market refresh rate". The guy suggests that the lowest this should be in real time mode is 1000ms (milli-seconds I think). In simulation mode I run it at 5000ms.

There are also a number of other settings that uses milli-seconds to retrieve info. These are pre-set and are as follows "Get market info at start interval" 12500ms and "Get passed markets info interval" 60000ms.

Your settings might have one or all of those settings way too low and therefore why it may be playing up.

Having said all that then Betfair would have pinged you for excess data usage or something like that. Maybe your computer is the problem. :confused:

[macs]

macs, quick question on BBP, I've tried using it but found it chewing away at my internet usage in rapid pace and had to basically give up using it after 2-3 days. Have you found the same problem?I haven't noticed Eva. I've got a 100GB allowance so the only time I take any notice is when some inconsiderate, pubescent individual (prat) finds it funny to download copious amounts of data and bring it to a standstill.

[macs]

RP, have you bought the software or using their trial?

[Rinconpaul]

Look I couldn't get the trial to work so silly me bought it thinking that would cure things but it didn't.
Thanks
RP

[Rinconpaul]

I've been using Betsender which I've had no issues with except you can't get any support, they never reply. But a tip for you while trialling it, if you can keep your computer running and the bot open indefinetly the trial period never ends! It's only when I had a power blackout that I had to pay.
Cheers
RP

[macs]

Look I couldn't get the trial to work so silly me bought it thinking that would cure things but it didn't.
Thanks
RPThere has to be a fairly simple solution, I use Norton 360 and don't have any dramas with it at all.

[michaelg]

Today's four selections were beaten for a profit of $12.89.

[Rinconpaul]

I backed both systems of yours, well done.
RP

[michaelg]

RP, glad you made some money. Let's hope it continues.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Taree
3/1, 2, 4
4/8
7/9

Wagga
1/5
2/8, 11
3/9, 10, 11

Kyneton
4/2, 3
8/9

[Feebles]

Hey Guys, I would be interested to get your opinion on which site holds the best form guide.
Feebles

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - from the 14 selections there were 14 smiles for a profit of $43.80.

It's been 101 races (6 days) since I applied the form filters (D,T, C and W). There's been no accidents, for a profit of $579.10.

I'm not sure but I don't think any of the 101 selections placed.

[Rinconpaul]

Well done mate, great result.
Cheers RP

[michaelg]

Feebles, I think it depends what you are looking for. I use Unitab for general info, but when it comes to prices I use the Daily Telegraph. And the R&S website provides more detailed information.

Thanks, RP.

Today's selections:

Wyong
7/10

Sandown
6/10

Launceston
2/5
3/7
8/11

Mt Barker
1/9
2/3, 4, 9
3/1, 4, 9

[reddevil]

Hi MG, Launceston 2/5 appears to be first up on Tatts and Sky Form.

[michaelg]

Hi, Reddevil, your'e right, thanks.

The selection for Launceston Race 2 is not no.5 but no.2.

[michaelg]

Correction of the above correction - there are no selections in Launceston Race 2.

No.2 is in the top four Unitab rankings so it is not a selection and therefore will not be recorded as a smile or accident. I hope it doesn't win because I've already layed it. Unfortunately I won't be at my computer to back it and lessen any possible damage. Fingers crossed...

[michaelg]

From today's 11 selections there were 11 smiles for a profit of $53.55.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Newcastle
1/3
310
6/16

Ballarat
8/14

Mt Gambier
4/2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11
5/10
6/3
9/13

Bunbury
2/2, 11, 13
3/3
5/5
6/16
8/1, 11, 14
10/5, 15

[Rinconpaul]

Mt Gambier R9/13 has a "D" MG

[michaelg]

Thanks, RP.

However I use the info on Unitab/Tatts. It shows it clear of the Form Filter (D, T, C and W) so I have to accept it as a selection.

[garyf]

Thanks, RP.

However I use the info on Unitab/Tatts. It shows it clear of the Form Filter (D, T, C and W) so I have to accept it as a selection. The anomaly here could be this.

Some guides use 10% either way for a winning distance
While others don't.

So Kirvic won its only race in a maiden at Naracoorte in,
Sept last year over 1430.

Add 10% like some guides 1430+143= 1573.

This would show in some guides as having won in this,
Particular distance range today 1550 while others who don't use the 10%.
Rule, only the 1400 distance rule won't show it.

I have never visited the Unitab site so can't comment on their procedure,
Or where they obtain the data from.

But as M.G. has based his bets on this site that's the best way to do it.

This is only my suggestion as to why some will, some won't,
have this stat.

Cheers.
Gary.

[UselessBettor]

Based on experience I believe tatts uses a within 50m rule at this distance. So it would need to have won between 1500 and 1600 to get a D.

[garyf]

Based on experience I believe tatts uses a within 50m rule at this distance. So it would need to have won between 1500 and 1600 to get a D.That would explain it then U.B.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Thanks, gents.

One learns something every day.

[michaelg]

Correction - the selection for Bunbury race 6 is not no.16 but no.17.

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 24 selections there were 24 smiles for a profit of $226.41.

It's now a week since introducing the Form Filters. During these seven days there's been 146 selections for 146 smiles for a profit of $860.

[TheSchmile]

A good day - from the 24 selections there were 24 smiles for a profit of $226.41.

It's now a week since introducing the Form Filters. During these seven days there's been 146 selections for 146 smiles for a profit of $860.
Good stuff Michaelg!

Glad to see the new filters working.

[michaelg]

Thanks, TheSchmile.

The Form Filters also apply to the recent Lay Neural Outsiders method.

And to date (5 days) there have been 150 selections for 150 smiles for a profit of $125.00 from $33 liability bets. Pity they weren't $333 liability bets, but there's still more testing to do before I consider increasing the bet size.

An excellent filter, TheSchmile, thanks for bringing it to my notice.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Canterbury
4/9

Goulburn
4/4
8/4, 5, 10

Quirindi
1/14
2/1, 6, 11
4/7
5/9

Donald
1/8, 9
2/7
3/15
5/14

Ipswich
2/8
4/5, 10
5/4
7/13

[Rinconpaul]

I was comparing my selections to yours and came up with a number of differences. Firstly I wanted to ask I thought your rules were min 1 start or have you changed that now. Quirindi R1 threw up a lot of selections based on 1 start but you have eliminated them?
I think you missed selecting Goulburn 4/11
Ipswich 7/13 has "DW" on tatts.
Ipswich 2/8 has "D" on tatts
Cheers
RP

[michaelg]

Hi, RP.

If a horse has only one career start and it complies with all the other rules then it is a selection. However, if it has two or more career starts and it is now or at it's previous start resuming from a spell I then omit it. It's a little confusing but with experience I generally/hopefully identify it.

Thanks for your observation about the two Ipswich selections. You are right - they are not selections. Unfortunately I've already layed 2/8.

Goulburn 4/11 is priced at only priced at $41 in Don Scott's market. The minimum price is $100.

There's so many filters to the method that it's not too difficult to make an occasional mistake.

Thanks for checking the selections.

[Rinconpaul]

Well Michael, I've got you down on my betting sheet as 18/18 DS & 42/42 Neurals so far today, thats awesome!!!!
Cheers
RP

[michaelg]

Hi, RP.

From the 19 selections there's been 19 smiles for a profit of $230.64. That's a record of 9 winning successive days.

The Neural Outsider method. There's currently been 47 selections for 47 smiles - only two more selections to go.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Eagle Farm
5/7

Morphetville
4/11
8/14

Gosford
4/2

Wodonga
2/8

Toowoomba
1/13
5/8

[michaelg]

From the seven selections there were seven smiles for a profit of $18.99.

[UselessBettor]

From the seven selections there were seven smiles for a profit of $18.99.Nice work :)

[michaelg]

Unfortunately I made a slight mistake yesterday - there were only 6 selections not 7. I included Gosford which was abandoned, however the total profit was $18.99 as reported.

Today's selections (much more that yesterday's paltry 6):

Bathurst
1/4, 6, 13, 15
4/2, 6, 12
5/2
8/13

Colac
1/5, 8
6/5

Canberra
5/12, 13
7/4, 5, 9, 14

Sun Coast
1/9
8/2

Kilmore
4/2, 3

Balaclava
2/12
3/2, 8, 9
4/6
6/9
8/1

Pinjarra
3/1, 2, 5, 10, 12
5/8, 12, 14
7/18
8/8
9/10, 11
10/16

[michaelg]

A disaster - from the 40 selections there were two accidents for a loss of $441.47.

Since laying for a liability of $333 on 22/01 there have been 729 smiles from 745 selections for a profit of $2,011.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Scone
1/7, 9,11
2/10
4/9, 10
5/12

Pakenham
2/10
5/3, 4
7/11

[michaelg]

The 10 selections became 10 smiles for a profit of $37.47.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Werribee
3/3, 6, 15
5/12, 15

Townsville
4/9, 10
6/10

[michaelg]

There has been a late scratching at Werribee race 5. It is therefore not a qualifying race because there are now less then 9 starters.

[TheSchmile]

Today's selections:

Werribee
3/3, 6, 15
5/12, 15

Townsville
4/9, 10
6/10
Hiya Michaelg,

Just checking again:

Werribee
3/6,15 came 6th and 5th last start respectively.

[michaelg]

Thanks, TheSchmile,

Your'e right. They are not selections.

I'm not having a good day in identifying the selections.

[Rinconpaul]

Michael I'm getting confused as to what are your "latest" selection criteria. I have it as:
Omit if horse in top 4 Unitab ratings
Omit if C, D or T in form
Min field 9 horses
Must be $100 or more in Don Scotts rankings
Finished 7th or worse last start
A horse is eligible if having 2nd start if it complies with all other criteria
Omit if horse resuming from spell or second start from spell
Omit if >= 3.0 points in Form column of Don Scotts ratings.

Werribee 5/15 was rated 100 today, the one that WON.
Werribee 6/10 with 96 points could be judged as being in the top 4 Unitab.
Thanks RP

[michaelg]

Hi, RP.

Because of a late scratching Werrbee R5 was not a qualifying race (posted earlier in this thread). And you are right - it never should have been originally listed as a qualifier because of the Unitab filter as detailed by you.

I'll repeat - I'm not having a good day...it's scary. Thankfully people are double-checking the validity of the selections.

I must be more careful...I must be more careful...I must be more careful...

[michaelg]

Against my better judgement I today increased the bets from a $333 liability to $999.

Luckily the 4 selections were beaten for a profit of $22.34.

From tomorrow I'm going to lose my complacency and double-check the selections and also my typing, especially due to the size of my bets.

[Mark]

Risking $3996 to make $22.34 !!!!

I wish you all the best michaelg.

[michaelg]

Thanks for the good wishes, Mark.

I'm now betting a liability of $999, not $3,996.

If from day one (7 Dec) I had bet a liabilitiy of the current $999 the method would be slightly over $13,000 in profit...so I'm hopeful. And it gives me a rush with the high liability.

There's been 2,396 smiles from 2441 selections for a 98% strike rate.

[Mark]

I don't know what your lays are and assumed 1 per race.
4 lays x $999 = $3996 risk.
More than 1 per race obviously reduces the risk. And if you're getting a rush from laying then you're in trouble. My opinion only.

I do concede that your strike rate is commendable.

[Rinconpaul]

Onya MG. Goodluck with it.
RP

[michaelg]

Mark, I now know you mean a total liability of $3996m to win a paltry $22.

Today's smiles were very small which is not unexpected, however every now and then up pops a horse that is fancied in the market. To me it's the strike rate that has been the method's winner.

Just read your posting - again thanks for the good wishes, and hope the many filters continue to prove worthwhile.

[Rinconpaul]

I'll be checking your selections so there's no errors. With that sort of liability do you foresee any difficulty getting your order matched?
Cheers RP

[Rinconpaul]

MG I notice you skipped the Devils number 666 and went straight to the next level. Way to go.
RP

[michaelg]

Hi, RP.

Thanks for checking the selections.

No, I don't think I'll have any problems with getting my bets matched because they are layed S.P. About a year ago I layed two horses each for $10,000 S.P. to see if there would be any problems being matched - there wasn't and fortunately they were beaten. I'm under the impression Betfair matches (or they arrange) for S.P. bets to be matched.

[UselessBettor]

I'm under the impression Betfair matches (or they arrange) for S.P. bets to be matched.
In general you are right. If you go and try to lay at SP for $10,000 and there is only $4K being bet on SP then they are going to look at the exchange to work out how to price the SP odds for the horse. If there was $2K at $100 and 2K at $500 and then $2K at $800 then your SP price is going to blow out to the $800 mark.

It all depends on liquidity. The more you lay the higher the price will be that you lay at. Its kind of like the tote but not quite as severe.

Mind you 10K to lay at $200 is only $50 for someone to bet so I am not surpirsed you can easily lay the $10K.

[stugots]

As mark posted MG, at a ratio of 20/4000, your risk reward is way out of whack, but there's no denying that the method is holding up, so hats off & upwards & onwards, we are here to gamble afterall.


Just don't forget to breath;)

[michaelg]

Hi, U.B.

When I had my $10,000 Lay bets I looked at the Exchange when each race began. There was little difference between the Buy and Sell Price which is normal but the S.P. price also was on a par with the Exchange. Maybe I was just lucky there was suitable liquidity.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Canterbury
3/5
6/5

Ascot
1/6
6/12
8/14, 17, 18
9/9

Launceston
6/8, 12


Hopefully I've got them right and that there are no accidents.

[stugots]

Looks like the larger liabilities can blow the SP out, eg PR1 SP $168 & around $40+ the totes/fixed price, or is that the normal ratio you expect with these?

[michaelg]

Yes, it was $168 S.P but it's Lay price on the Exchange was $300.

In the same race No 4's S.P. price was $32 yet on the exchange it's Bet price was $36 and it's Lay price was $38...???

I've had a quick look at horses that are at least $30 on S.P. - it seems their Lay prices on the Exchange are higher than S.P.

This might suggest if one wants to Lay an outsider it could be better to do so on S.P. than on the exchange?

[michaelg]

Today's 10 selections were beaten for a profit of $126.14.

[stugots]

Michael, if I could make a suggestion/observation, call it what you will.

While I am very much the skeptic when it comes to the long term viability of laying long-shots one or two out, there's little doubt your onto something & doing well, so you have opened my eyes a bit, along with many others I am sure.

As there is a limited amount of funds available at the wide end of the market, I now believe you are doing yourself a disservice listing the selections each day & I am certain you will start to see your average SP drifting, if that isn't already happening & suspect it is with many jumping on your bandwagon. (No, I am not one of them & not posting this trying to protect my pocket).

Much the same as someone who develops a successful favourite system, then lets the world know but then cannot make a profit as he can no longer get the prices he needs, you could well be facing a similar outcome. In fact it wouldn't surprise to see your system pop up in a magazine shortly & that would surely kill it off.

Anyway best of continued luck to you as you have done what most cannot, but reckon you should consider letting this thread slip off the front page.

[michaelg]

Thanks for your advice, Stugots.

I will periodically check the S.P. price (for this and the neural system) and if it continually exceeds the Lay price on the exchange I'll know something's amiss, then I'll have to do something about it. But I hope it never happens.

Today's selections ($999 liability bets):

Goulburn
3/2
6/16

Sale
4/13
5/5, 15

Rocky
5/14

Albany
1/8, 12
2/1, 5
6/10
7/13

[Feebles]

I am a good friend of MG and I have warned him of this 6 mths ago
He is such a nice guy he can't help himself, helping others
He works very hard at these systems and I told him that it will one day, pop up as a successful system in some publication ( for a price).
I am sure his lay prices are much larger than when he first started.
I only wish him the best in future




Michael, if I could make a suggestion/observation, call it what you will.

While I am very much the skeptic when it comes to the long term viability of laying long-shots one or two out, there's little doubt your onto something & doing well, so you have opened my eyes a bit, along with many others I am sure.

As there is a limited amount of funds available at the wide end of the market, I now believe you are doing yourself a disservice listing the selections each day & I am certain you will start to see your average SP drifting, if that isn't already happening & suspect it is with many jumping on your bandwagon. (No, I am not one of them & not posting this trying to protect my pocket).

Much the same as someone who develops a successful favourite system, then lets the world know but then cannot make a profit as he can no longer get the prices he needs, you could well be facing a similar outcome. In fact it wouldn't surprise to see your system pop up in a magazine shortly & that would surely kill it off.

Anyway best of continued luck to you as you have done what most cannot, but reckon you should consider letting this thread slip off the front page.

[Rinconpaul]

I am a good friend of MG and I have warned him of this 6 mths ago
He is such a nice guy he can't help himself, helping others
He works very hard at these systems and I told him that it will one day, pop up as a successful system in some publication ( for a price).
I am sure his lay prices are much larger than when he first started.
I only wish him the best in future
I've been following MG 's system but don't get a fill on his selections very often because I set the bot to max odds of 50. I can't see the risk/reward over that. Then you get ripped off on prices! Look at Goulburn 3/2 Irish Rocks: 82 on the tote, 550 BF Back & 640 Lay.
Forget it!
RP

[michaelg]

Thanks for the kind and encouraging words, gents.

I don't know if my (or anyone's) large lay bets are affecting the S.P. price. Goulburn 3/2 was a very disappointing price, but I think this is quite common for long shots. For example no.3 in the same race was not a selection but it's price(s) was also just as disappointing. Both horses' S.P. price was much lower than their Lay price shown on the Exchange which does not worry me, especially as their S.P. price is slightly higher than the Bet price on the exchange.

Today's 11 selections were all beaten for a profit of $103.16.

[stugots]

Michael I think you will find that the exchange prices are now often longer than they previously were as punters are also laying your selections on the exchange, & in doing so they are matching up many of the lay bets that previously would have converted to SP if unmatched at the jump.

Anyway there's an easy way to check & that would be to calculate your % returns since you moved to the larger stake, for example yesterday I believe there were 11 bets so -

$103.16/10989 = .939%

If you do this daily & list the results I would be happy to create a graph to display if your returns are diminishing or not.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Stugots.

I began laying for $999 last Tuesday. The results since then as described by you are:

Tuesday = 0.179
Wednesday =0.79
Yesterday = 0.939

How do I calculate if there is an accident? I'm still not convinced the prices are diminishing so I'm going to do some further research.

Today's selections:

Ballarat
2/10, 13
3/10
4/1, 2, 7, 14, 17

[stugots]

Thought you had been going longer with $999 so if you include the $333 results as well it should provide a clearer picture & for now exclude any accidents & just record the results for your wins.

[michaelg]

Today's 8 selections were beaten for a profit of $90.98.

Stugot's factor = 0.878. I haven't included the total $666 liability of the two Neural Method selections, To keep it simple and convenient I'll do it for just the Don Scott method even though the factor will not be entirely accurate.

[michaelg]

Today's selections ($999 bets):

Queanbeyan
1/12
2/8
3/10
5/10
7/10

Kembla
1/4, 12, 15
2/2
4/12

Morphetville
8/12

Toowoomba
5/10

[UselessBettor]

good luck today.

[michaelg]

Thanks, U.B.

[michaelg]

A good day - there were 11 smiles from the 11 selections for a profit of $252.13.

A factor of 0.44

[michaelg]

Today's selections ($999)

Albury
3/2, 8, 10
4/16

Bendigo
4/3, 14

Sun Coast
2/7, 11, 13
6/12

Murray Bridge
4/5, 13
5/10

Wangaratta
2/1
3/7, 10
4/9

Devenport
5/4, 11

Bunbury
3/6
5/11, 12, 18
7/4, 7, 10, 11, 13
9/3, 12, 13

[michaelg]

A disaster - from the 29 selections there were 3 accidents for a loss of $2,118.33.

Since increasing the liability to $999 last Tuesday there has been a loss of $1,523.68.

I've still got some confidence in the method because if I had layed every selection for $999 from day one I'd be almost $10,000 in front.

[UselessBettor]

A disaster - from the 29 selections there were 3 accidents for a loss of $2,118.33.

Since increasing the liability to $999 last Tuesday there has been a loss of $1,523.68.

I've still got some confidence in the method because if I had layed every selection for $999 from day one I'd be almost $10,000 in front.
Ouch bad day. You will probably go 5 days without an accident now.

[michaelg]

I hope your'e right, UB.

Today's selections:

Coonamble
1/2, 3
2/9, 13
5/11
7/14

W'bool
1/1, 8
3/6
4/12

Toowoomba
1/4
5/10

Esperance
1/10, 11
2/10

Geraldton
1/5
2/8, 15
3/9
5/10
6/8, 11

[stugots]

MG, how many winning days in a row up until yesterdays accidents?

I ask because theres probably a fair argument to be made for either suspending betting after X amount of winning days in a row, or even start backing them to win for a short period.

The only thing I really know about laying is you can't stop them winning;) You look to have a profitable method but it will still bite you now & then, as you well know.

[michaelg]

There was 6 successive winning days.

I suppose it's like in roulette waiting for red or black to be successful for a certain amount of spins and then change colour relying on the law of averages.

It might have some logic but I wouldn't get a kick out of doing that.

[stugots]

Yeah, but are we here to make money or get a buzz on? If moneys not the motivation then I get it, but otherwise...

Simple motto I use - 'whatever it takes' - unfortunately it is also Essendon FC's slogan this year but that's another story;)

[michaelg]

My motivation is to make money and also get a rush from it.

However I don't at the moment get the same buzz from backing that I do from laying.

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 19 selections there were 19 smiles for an excellent profit of $420.94 mainly thanks to Geraldton 2/8.

[The Ocho]

My motivation is to make money and also get a rush from it.

However I don't at the moment get the same buzz from backing that I do from laying.
The aim should not be to make money. The aim should be to make the right decisions that, then, leads to money being made.

And you can quote me on that. ;)

Of course everyone gets a rush from money jumping into their betting bank but I bet they get more satisfaction at the way they arrived at their pick to win or lose the race for them or, for me, that I traded right therefore winning on a particular race.

Whatever you are doing in life, whether you are using rules, systems, trading, etc, you first need to make the right decisions before you can make money.

[SpeedyBen]

The only thing I really know about laying is you can't stop them winning;) You look to have a profitable method but it will still bite you now & then, as you well know.Laying requires a different mindset from backing. Backing longshots is having a series of small losses with a good winner here and there. Laying longshots is lots of small wins with a large loss now and then. You know the losses are coming and you have to accept them. If a person can't do that he shouldn't be laying.

[michaelg]

Today's selections ($999).

Muswellbrook
1/5, 16
2/4, 8, 10, 13, 17
4/4, 8, 9
5/8
8/15
9/13

Traralgon
1/7
3/3, 15
7/14
8/11, 12

[michaelg]

Not a bad day - from the 19 selections there were 19 smiles for a profit of $207.12.

[UselessBettor]

Good work Micheal.

[michaelg]

Thanks, UB.

Today's selections ($999)

Newcastle
4/14, 15
5/14

Sandown
5/12

Eagle Farm
1/20
4/3
5/12

Gawler
3/7, 10, 11
5/2

Ascot
1/16
7/14
8/5, 16, 17

[UselessBettor]

looking good so far today.

[michaelg]

Yes, UB.

With two more races to go it's a touch over $185 in profit.

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 16 selections there were 16 smiles for a profit of $206.16.

[Rinconpaul]

If from day one (7 Dec) I had bet a liabilitiy of the current $999 the method would be slightly over $13,000 in profit...so I'm hopeful. And it gives me a rush with the high liability.

There's been 2,396 smiles from 2441 selections for a 98% strike rate.2441 - 2396 = 45 losses Therefore 45 x 999 = $44955 loss. Add to this the $13000 nett profit you made over and above this loss = $57955 nett turnover. Divide this by 2396 smiles = $24.18 nett profit per bet ($999 liability) Add commission to that as I assume your $13000 profit was after commission = $25.86 . Average odds then 39:1.
Your average return per bet of $24.18/$999 is markedly more than the Speed-E-Ficiary system return of $18.06(as of yesterday).
That's excellent!
Cheers RP

[michaelg]

Thanks, RP.

Because of the interest you've now created I've double-checked the results.

Laying for a $33 liability there have been (including the five days of testing period) 1674 selections for 1706 smiles for a profit of $431. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $13,000.

Laying for a $333 liability there have been 755 selections for 739 smiles for a profit of $2,040. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $6,000.

Laying for a $999 liability there have been 137 selections for 134 smiles for a loss of $690.

I must admit there was a close-call yesterday with Newcastle 6/12. The filter that prevented it from becoming an accident was that it was equal-fourth in the Unitab rankings.

[Rinconpaul]

Thanks, RP.
Laying for a $33 liability there have been (including the five days of testing period) 1674 selections for 1706 smiles for a profit of $431. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $13,000.

Laying for a $333 liability there have been 755 selections for 739 smiles for a profit of $2,040. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $6,000.

Laying for a $999 liability there have been 137 selections for 134 smiles for a loss of $690.
From the revised figures, if you started with a $999 liability on the 7th Dec till now (3 month anniversary today!) you would have made $18,478 profit! Well done.
Cheers RP

[michaelg]

Thanks, RP. If from day one the current filters had been applied I hope/expect the profit could have been better.

Today's selections ($999):

Wyong
5/3, 4, 16

Ballarat
1/8, 10
2/1, 4, 5
3/5

Beaudesert
1/14
3/7, 11
5/6, 9, 15, 17
7/8

Bordertown
3/11, 12
5/4
6/12

Pinjarra
1/2, 3, 8
4/4, 8, 9
5/3, 4, 5, 12
9/10

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michaelg,

I had an idea that it may be prudent (when you have a spere few hours/a day) to go over all selections with T,C,D,W in their form line.

I was thinking that even though they cause more accidents, it doesn't matter so long as they're losing at level stakes when laying.

[michaelg]

TheSchmile.

I did look at this at around the time you originally suggested these Form Filters. I did not persue it so I have to assume the filter was worthwhile, and I am also under the impression it increased the strike rate.

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 31 selections there were 31 smiles for an excellent profit of $586.92.

[Rinconpaul]

A good day - from the 31 selections there were 31 smiles for an excellent profit of $586.92.
Another great day MG . Were you able to place a bet on Pinjarra R4? Bet fair seemed to freeze up at my end showing only $93 traded.
Where to next? Are you going to retire gracefully like Speedy and just let the profits roll in?
All the best RP

[michaelg]

Hi, RP.

There were some problems with Betfair yesterday but fortunately I was able to get all my bets on.

In spite of the good profit of $1,429 over the past four days the method hasn't recouped Sunday's loss of $2,118. Hopefully it's just a matter of time.

I'll continue with the method providing it doesn't crash.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Taree
1/2, 10, 11
2/13
3/15
5/10
6/12

Sapphire Coast
2/5

Cranbourne
2/9
3/13
4/7

Ipswich
2/4, 13
8/19

Albany
1/2
2/7
6/1
7/6, 12

Canterbury
5/10

[michaelg]

Due to an unforseen problem I wasn't able to look at Stawell earlier. There is one selection there today:

Stawell
6/12

[michaelg]

A bad day - there was one accident from the 20 selections for a loss of $624.41.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Dombeen
8/5, 7

Newcastle
1/4
2/6, 7, 10
4/14

Echuca
2/7
3/9, 10, 11
7/9

Grafton
2/3, 8
4/11
5/13, 14
6/8
7/1

Kyneton
3/2, 5, 7

Toowoomba
1/6, 12
2/8
7/8

Ascot
4/6
5/7
6/7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16

[michaelg]

Another losing day. There was one accident from the 29 selections for a loss of $116.46.

There's been 9 days since increasing the liability to $999, 3 of them have been losing days although the strike rate of 98% has been maintained.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Canberra
1/17
8/15

Stony Creek
2/5, 7, 8, 12, 13
3/5, 11

Corowa
3/3, 11
8/1

Sun Coast
7/5, 9
8/5

Clare
6/4

Echuca
2/8
4/6
7/10, 11, 12
8/14

Hobart
3/12
7/11

Bunbury
4/11
5/12
8/2
9/10

[UselessBettor]

michael,

Just a thought but wouldn't it always be better to increase your stake after a losing run rather then a winning run ? You obviously raised the stakes after a particularly good run and the inevitability of averages comes along and hits you with a few losses.

Im not saying you should increase your stake after losses, just when you feel that you want to raise your stake then you should wait for the losing run (could be 1 loser, or more then 1 but that is up to you) and then start your increased stake. That way the law of averages is working with your increased stake rather then against it.

[TWOBETS]

That way the law of averages is working with your increased stake rather then against it.

It actually is irrelevant UB. The time to up the ante is when you know you have a winning system.

[michaelg]

UB.

I don't think I've mentioned it but I often increase the size of the bet after striking a loser if I'm at my computer. I've got no method to the size of the increase, just a gut feeling.

On Friday the method lost over $600 but with increased laying I won about $300, however it's nerve-racking, and yesterday I lost over $100 but ended up over $100 in profit. I have to tell myself that after about 3,000 selections the method is showing a healthy profit with a 98% strike rate, so that I don't feel too bad when increasing the bet size. Of course chasing losers could be a method-killer.

[UselessBettor]

It actually is irrelevant UB. The time to up the ante is when you know you have a winning system.
It might be small in the long term, but pschologically I find it better to do it this way. Of course as you said if you do not have a winning system then there is no point uping the ante.

[TWOBETS]

It might be small in the long term, but pschologically I find it better to do it this way.

Yes, I understand your point UB.

[michaelg]

A good day - from the 27 selections there were 27 smiles for a profit of $397.65.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:


Gosford
3/10,16

Orange
1/7, 11
2/8, 9, 10
3/14
4/1, 8
5/5, 6, 13

Morphetville
7/14

[michaelg]

A losing day - there was one accident from the 14 selections for a loss of $861.68.

Whenever I'm about to regain the existing loss, up pops another accident and puts the method back into the red.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Mackay
8/9

Muswellbrook
5/2
4/1,, 2, 5, 6, 11, ,12, 14

Coffs
2/9, 10,
3/4
4/9
6/12
7/17

Terang
4/5

I am reducing the liability to $333 just as a precaution in case reality is finally catching up with the method.

[michaelg]

The 16 selections became 16 smiles for a profit of $165.90.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Sale
3/12, 13

Dombeen
1/3
5/3, 12

Narrogin
2/9
4/11

Launceston
2/7
3/3

Strathalbyn
5/7, 8, 9

[michaelg]

Today's 12 selections became 12 smiles for a profit of $37.79.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Wyong
4/3, 8

Sun Coast
3/3
5/7
7/7
8/11, 12

Bunbury
4/10
5/2, 8, 10, 11, 14, 15
6/9

Ballarat
5/8

[michaelg]

I'm halting this method for the time being because it is too clumsy and cumbersome to identify the few daily selections even though it's in a healthy profit. If I get the urge I'll revive it.

I'm considering laying another method where the selection is priced at $40 or less. I've been doing it on and off for a few months and have a 100% strike rate and also close to a similar s/rate when for laying for a Place. My only problem is I've got to be at my computer.