Is it possible to make $1 per bet throughout the year?

[Try Try Again]

I'm going to see if it is possible to make $1 per bet throughout 2013.

My bets are going to be mainly Melbourne & Sydney races on Saturdays but some Public Holidays and other major days may come into play e.g. Thousand Guineas and Oaks Day.

I'm going to concentrate on the first 3 opening favourites.

To give you some background information.

December 2012

Melbourne

1st Fav...34 bets...8 wins...23.5% S/R...Bank $20.40...longest losing run 8
2nd Fav...34 bets...7 wins...20.6% S/R...Bank $35.90...longest losing run 8
3rd Fav....34 bets...9 wins...26.5% S/R...Bank $35.30...longest losing run 5

Sydney

1st Fav...30 bets...5 wins...16.7% S/R...Bank $24.40...longest losing run 7
2nd Fav...30 bets...9 wins...30.0% S/R...Bank $33.70...longest losing run 7
3rd Fav...29 bets...4 wins...13.8% S/R...Bank $23.50...longest losing run 9

What do you think are my chances?

[The Ocho]

What do you think are my chances?
Probably Buckley's but it's good someone is trying something out on here apart from michaelg and a little of UB and not many others.

I still keep trying to look for something purely automated that I can set and forget on my bot (to augment my trading) but just when you think you're getting somewhere, the law of averages catches up with you, chews you up and spits you out.

I still reckon there's got to be something that can work automatically but, for the life of me, I just can't think of it or find it.

[stugots]

I've had a couple so that's probably why it's not entirely clear to me what your strategy will be TTY..

[Star]

In a word. No. I had written out a great story regarding the odds required for various senarios but somehow at the death it got deleted.

But in a word, and my maths are rubbish you would need $5 dividend on the strike rates listed just to break even.

Theirfore it looks like to improve that you have to use Barny's Shakespearan quote from Brutus and hope you are on the flood tide and get off before it receeded like Useless Bettor has suggested.

I think he stated that you have to hope your in luck early " Taken at the Flood " double your bank then withdraw your original and play with the winnings hoping the waters do not reced too quick before you can jump before you blow the lot.

But, old Brutus was not that reliable a friend, after all it was he who put the last knife into his friend Julius Cesar prompting Julius to say ' What. not you too Brutus. "

Star

[Try Try Again]

Thanks for the comments. It appears I'll be pushing uphill to get a result in my favour.

However, I will persevere and see how far the trek takes me!

Strategy is to take the opening price as the divisor into amount required to get $'s bet. I would think 9 times out of 10 the final dividend will be greater than the opening price (no figures just my gut feel). This is where I will have built in an advantage.

Time will tell.

I am also looking at Victorian Country meetings (from 1st January).

1st fav...45 bets...bank $38.30
2nd fav...45 bets...bank $43.60
3rd fav...44 bets...bank $39.50

The chase is on!

[Barny]

Theirfore it looks like to improve that you have to use Barny's Shakespearan quote from Brutus and hope you are on the flood tide and get off before it receeded like Useless Bettor has suggested.

I think he stated that you have to hope your in luck early " Taken at the Flood " double your bank then withdraw your original and play with the winnings hoping the waters do not reced too quick before you can jump before you blow the lot.

But, old Brutus was not that reliable a friend, after all it was he who put the last knife into his friend Julius Cesar prompting Julius to say ' What. not you too Brutus. "

Star
Star, taken at the flood refers to a "tight" recurring system with filters that are logical and take advantage of the window of opportunity (important !!) that presents itself with any system ..... the low tide includes filters that do nothing to enhance the system.

[Puntz]

I tried to set up counting method with excel, using 1 dollar bets on the "top 5" in various selection methods ranging from 1st top 5 favourites to 10 or so various selection methods including tipsters.
After initial testing of the process, after 1000 races counted, in a word, No.
There was an obvious pattern emerging , which to take it much further was a waste of effort.
This assumes the tests done were in real time, results taken were at interim.
Therefore a few races missed while waiting for results on the previous "bet race".

[Try Try Again]

Thanks for all comments.

An update (I have been away for the past 3 days enjoying golf, great company and plenty of the fluid intake) I have included any Metropolitan meeting that does not fall into Saturday, Public Holiday and Carnival special days (as previously mentioned). I did this before I checked the results.

The Victorian Country and other Metropolitan meetings results are:-

1st fav...59 bets...bank $76.10 (S/R 37.3%)
2nd fav...59 bets...bank $61.00 (S/R 16.9%)
3rd fav...59 bets...bank $52.70 (S/R12.1%)

We are currently above our expected returns (Outlay $176, Bank $189.80) whereas our S/R for opening favourites are greater than expected, I would think our S/R for our 2nd and 3rd favourites are lower than expected.

Any comments (besides too early to tell)?

[Barny]

It's too early to tell ;)

[Try Try Again]

Thanks Barny,

I love your honesty!

[Barny]

Any comments (besides too early to tell)?
That's a nice response Try Try Again ..... I nearly got through the day without making a pest of myself !! :)

[Try Try Again]

10 days in and all is good!

1st fav...+$75.9...Outlay $93...POT % 81.6%
2nd fav...+65.9...Outlay $158...POT % 41.7%
3rd fav...+64.3...Outlat $379...POT % 17.0%

After 10 days overall profit is $206.10 at 32.7% POT

Obviously a POT % of greater than 32% is not sustainable but the profit is looking healthy.

Comments?

[The Ocho]

10 days in and all is good!

1st fav...+$75.9...Outlay $93...POT % 81.6%
2nd fav...+65.9...Outlay $158...POT % 41.7%
3rd fav...+64.3...Outlat $379...POT % 17.0%

After 10 days overall profit is $206.10 at 32.7% POT

Obviously a POT % of greater than 32% is not sustainable but the profit is looking healthy.

Comments?
I don't know what you're doing or how your doing it but well done. Good job!

Is this a loss chasing thing though?

[Try Try Again]

Thanks for the reply TO,

Is it loss chasing - yes to some extent.

If we are upto bet 54 and the bank is $42 and the opening price is $3 then the bet to be made is ($54-$42)/$3 = $4. If the horse wins but only pays $3.50, then we have only returned $10.50 of the $12 hence our next aim is ($12-$10.50) = $1.50 + $1 = $2.50 (the added $1 is because we are upto bet 55).

If the horse pays $5 then we now have $42 + $20 = $62 in bank and we will stay at $1 bets until bank falls below the bet level.

I have chosen the 1st 3 opening favs as the likelihood of hitting a winner in the 3 is >60% (someone may be able to give a more detailed expected theoretical strike rate).
As I have said previously using the opening price gives us an edge as in most races we would expect the winners price to be greater (and sometimes much greater than the opening price).

Most bets are only at the $1 level.

[The Ocho]

Okay thanks for that TTA.

[Try Try Again]

Hi TO,

I made some simple mistakes in my explanation (too tired last night when I put it together!).

Obviously the bet amount needs to be deducted from the return. So it should read if we bet $4 @$3.50 we collect $14 (less the $4 bet) so we win $10. Our bank would be $42 + $10 = $52, but as we are now up to bet 55 our next aim would be 55 - 52 = $3.

[evajb001]

Hi TTA,

So when your talking 'bank' your actually talking profit since starting, as obviously you can't have a $0 bank when you started the exercise at bet no. 1.

So essentially you could start this with say a $200 bank and your aiming to make $1 profit per bet correct? and if you fail then your next bet aims to make $2 profit until you've reached your profit goal and you scale back to needed $1 profit again.

To me that is exactly a chase system unless i'm reading it wrong. I like the concept and betting for $1 profit means it would take a significant run of outs to blow up the bank especially when using favourites but i'm still not a fan of loss chasing.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Evajb001,

You are correct, you will need a bank to start betting - obvious I guess.

When I say the bank is now $42 this is profit.

After 10 days we have had 200 bets and the profit is $206.10 so we are ahead of our aim to make $1 on every bet. We have outlaid $630 to achieve our aim to win $1 per bet.

[evajb001]

May I ask what the largest bet you've had to do so far is and also what was the largest gap you've had between your profit level and bet number.

(Hope the above questions make sense - if not I can explain further).

Thanks

[Try Try Again]

Hi Evajb001,

You certainly can ask! That's what the forum is for - sharing of information.

As I only started this from 1st January it is very early days with the Favourite performing above expectation.

The biggest bet so far was $49 on 3rd favourite at bet 22 aim was $192.30 (there had only been one small winner $2.70 at bet 14).

The biggest bet on 2nd favourite has been $11 with an aim of $53.40

The biggest bet on the favourite has been $5 with an aim of $8.90 (horse's opening price was $1.80)

Fav S/R........ 37.3% (longest losing run is 5, currently 1)
2nd Fav S/R.. 17.9% (longest losing run is 14, currently 2)
3rd Fav S/R... 13.6% (longest losing run is 15, currently 0)

[Try Try Again]

APOLOGY, APOLOGY, APOLOGY

I was having a look at what would have happened if I had considered races <8 starters and I found out that I had used the wrong figures for Mornington on New Years Day. I had in fact used Morphettville figures!

The results up to and including yesterday (10th January) for fields >= 8 starters are:-

1st fav 64 bets 25 wins S/R 39.1% bank $73.30
2nd fav 64 bets 11 wins S/R 17.2% bank $66.10
3rd fav 63 bets 10 wins S/R 15.9% bank 59.50

Total bets 191 bank $198.90 so I am ahead ($7.90) of schedule!

If I include ALL races results are:-

1st fav 94 bets 29 wins S/R 30.9% bank $100.40
2nd fav 94 bets 20 bets S/R 21.3% bank $126.80
3rd fav 93 bets 17 wins S/R 18.3% bank $92.80

Total bets (All races) 281 bank $320.00 so I would be ahead ($39.00) of schedule as well.

Largest bets and longest losing runs for fields >= 8 starters are

1st fav = $6 - 5
2nd fav = $7 - 15
3rd fav = $18 - 15

Largest bets and longest losing runs for ALL fields are

1st fav = $59 - 7 (twice)
2nd fav = $49 - 16
3rd fav = $18 - 14

POT % (fields>=8) is 44.8%

POT % (All fields) is 35.7%

[ubetido]

Hi TTA

Let me just say you are on the right track.

Ubetido

[rails run]

Hi TTA

Nice work. Although this is a lose chasing method at least you have concentrated it at the correct end of the market. You will have some long outs but it will recover relatively quickly. A decent bank will manage your psyche & your draw downs.

I like the fact you are working with 2 racing factors that have stood the test of time...
1. Strike rate of top end fav's
2. Public pricing
You are not trying to 'out-smart' anything.

After 11 days you already had 64 races in your database. Your largest draw downs will be obvious in a few more months of testing.

Have you recorded place S/R? Perhaps this could be applied on PLACE betting. Your recovery bets would sometimes get large but your runs of outs will halve.

The other suggestion I'd like to offer is to pick your races selectively. If a race has 4 or more runners opening under $10 then perhaps it's a good one to skip.

Good luck with this.

[The Ocho]

I've changed my mind, maybe it is possible.

I've had a look at something myself that has now won 28 days straight (since Boxing day and I haven't checked before that).

The only problem is that it is a loss recovery thing and some of the picks can get quite short. I reckon that the recovery would be in the order of 6 or 7 times the amount to win per day.

What do you guys reckon about loss recovery when there is a losing day with something like that? The reason I ask is that doing that with level stakes would mean 6-7 days before getting back to where you were beforehand.

It would need to be something that a bot could do so not what TTA is doing with his loss recovery as my bot can't do that.

Anyway, just as a general query if there was a daily loss would you go with:
A - Stick with level Stakes (and 6-7 days to get back 1 loss),
B - 2 x level stakes bet (maybe 3 days back to even),
C - Another option (please advise).

Sorry TTA for putting this on your thread but the method is one where one is trying to get $1 a day.

[Mark]

Loss chasing........don't do it.

[garyf]

A mild progressive loss chasing plan is fine T.O. providing,
Of course that all your selections dating back to boxing day,
Did one of 2 things.

1) Made a level stakes profit backing every selection.

2) Only just lost, say 1-2% maximum backing every selection.

If neither 1-2 happened then i am in Marks corner.

Cheers.
Gary.

[The Ocho]

Thanks for the replies guys.

I'm actually not sure if it made a level stakes profit :oops: but I would say no - so it may be a no goer. But 28 days straight! Geez! I kept checking every day and I couldn't believe it. I kept saying to myself that this must not be correct, fantasy land. Nah, can't work. This can't be happening. But it did.

Must be running very good I suppose. I'll check a few more weeks back so I can come back to earth (which I'm sure will be with a thud). :rolleyes:

[Try Try Again]

After 24 days using Victorian non Saturday and non Public Holiday meetings the results show why chasing a loss can be diabolical.

>= 8 starters

1st opening fav
Bets 173
Bank $127.70
largest bet $14
longest losing run 10
current losing run 7 (chasing $46.30)
POT % = 28.2%
Win S/R = 31.2%

2nd opening fav
Bets 173
Bank $45.20
largest bet $88
longest losing run 16
current losing run 3 (chasing $128.80)
POT % = 0.05%
Win S/R = 18.5%

3rd opening fav
bets 172
bank $1611.60
largest bet $725
longest losing run 28
current losing run 0
POT % = 43.1%
Win S/R = 12.8%

With the losing run of 28 bets you turned a bank of $59.50 into a bank of -$2662.50. It needed a winning bet of $725 @$6.90 to turn the process around. You will continue at $1 bets for approximately the next 720 bets, assuming you do not get another winner - which is obviously a bit far fetched - before your bet size would increase.

All starters

1st opening fav
Bets 228
Bank $169.20
largest bet $59
longest losing run 9
current losing run 6 (chasing $59.80)
POT % = 16.7%
Win S/R = 30.7%
3 times the bank has entered into a negative state.

2nd opening fav
Bets 229
Bank $204.20
largest bet $56
longest losing run 16 (twice)
current losing run 3 (chasing $25.80)
POT % = 19.9%
Win S/R = 19.2%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state

3rd opening fav
bets 227
bank $240.80
largest bet $95
longest losing run 20
current losing run 0
POT % = 30.1%
Win S/R = 15.9%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state

If anything it would "suggest" following the process irrespective of the number of starters.

Any thoughts?

[Lord Greystoke]

After 24 days using Victorian non Saturday and non Public Holiday meetings the results show why chasing a loss can be diabolical.

>= 8 starters

1st opening fav
Bets 173
Bank $127.70
largest bet $14
longest losing run 10
current losing run 7 (chasing $46.30)
POT % = 28.2%
Win S/R = 31.2%

2nd opening fav
Bets 173
Bank $45.20
largest bet $88
longest losing run 16
current losing run 3 (chasing $128.80)
POT % = 0.05%
Win S/R = 18.5%

3rd opening fav
bets 172
bank $1611.60
largest bet $725
longest losing run 28
current losing run 0
POT % = 43.1%
Win S/R = 12.8%

With the losing run of 28 bets you turned a bank of $59.50 into a bank of -$2662.50. It needed a winning bet of $725 @$6.90 to turn the process around. You will continue at $1 bets for approximately the next 720 bets, assuming you do not get another winner - which is obviously a bit far fetched - before your bet size would increase.

All starters

1st opening fav
Bets 228
Bank $169.20
largest bet $59
longest losing run 9
current losing run 6 (chasing $59.80)
POT % = 16.7%
Win S/R = 30.7%
3 times the bank has entered into a negative state.

2nd opening fav
Bets 229
Bank $204.20
largest bet $56
longest losing run 16 (twice)
current losing run 3 (chasing $25.80)
POT % = 19.9%
Win S/R = 19.2%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state

3rd opening fav
bets 227
bank $240.80
largest bet $95
longest losing run 20
current losing run 0
POT % = 30.1%
Win S/R = 15.9%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state

If anything it would "suggest" following the process irrespective of the number of starters.

Any thoughts?

Need to get the stake % correct vrs SR so you can recover losses effectively
i.e. have some chance of converting them into profits, whilst protecting the bank from going bust

You are treating each Fav as a single strategy it would seem and given the low SR for each, the 'pendulum' will surely wrap around your neck in next to no time. From my experience, a SR of 80%+ makes a progressive play that much easier to manage = to survive it and prosper

Cheers LG

[ubetido]

Hows it going TTA

.1% of bank

eg. $1000.......target $1

Seperate bets


Regards
ubetido

[Try Try Again]

Hi Ubetido,

I'll update after today's meeting on how January has gone. I'll also update on Saturday only meetings.

TTA

[Try Try Again]

After the results of yesterday's Warrnambool meeting it has to be said IT IS ************ HARD TO MAKE $1 PER RACE!


>= 8 starters

1st opening fav
Bets 235
Bank $245.30
largest bet $159
longest losing run 10
current losing run 2 (chasing $1)
POT % = 20.6%
Win S/R = 31.1%
Biggest drawdown = $432.00

2nd opening fav
Bets 235
Bank -$1070.50
largest bet $292
longest losing run 20
current losing run 5 (chasing $1306.50)
LOT % = 23.3%
Win S/R = 16.6%
Biggest drawdown = $908.00

3rd opening fav
bets 234
bank $1593.40
largest bet $725
longest losing run 28
current losing run 16 (Chasing $1)
POT % = 41.9%
Win S/R = 12.4%
Biggest drawdown = $2722.00

All starters

1st opening fav
Bets 304
Bank $293.90
largest bet $196
longest losing run 9
current losing run 2 (chasing $11.10)
POT % = 13.2%
Win S/R = 31.3%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state.
Biggest drawdown = $267.00

2nd opening fav
Bets 305
Bank -$6522.10
largest bet $1535
longest losing run 28
current losing run 5 (chasing $6828.10)
LOT % = 53.6%
Win S/R = 16.7%
8 times the bank has entered into a negative state
Biggest drawdown = $4750.00

3rd opening fav
bets 303
bank $243.00
largest bet $95
longest losing run 20
current losing run 11 (chasing $61.00)
POT % = 19.6%
Win S/R = 15.2%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state
Biggest drawdown = $355.00

For Saturday Melbourne meetings

1st fav
bets 25
bank $23.30
largest bet $5
longest losing run 4 (twice)
current losing run 3
POT % = 47.5%
Win S/R = 28.0%

2nd fav
bets 25
bank $33.10
largest bet $7
longest losing run 6
current losing run 0
POT % = 76.9%
Win S/R = 24.0%

3rd fav
bets 24
bank $13.20
largest bet $5
longest losing run 9
current losing run 7
POT % = 35.6%
Win S/R = 20.8%

I have to go out so I'll update the rest later today.

[Try Try Again]

For Saturday Sydney meetings, >= 8 starters

1st fav
bets 26
bank $28.50
largest bet $45
longest losing run 10
current losing run 0
POT % = 9.7%
Win S/R = 23.1%

2nd fav
bets 26
bank $16.20
largest bet $9
longest losing run 8
current losing run 6
POT % = 25.7%
Win S/R = 11.5%

3rd fav
bets 24
bank $30.20
largest bet $5
longest losing run 11
current losing run 1
POT % = 62.9%
Win S/R = 16.7%


For Saturday Melbourne meetings, all races

1st fav
bets 32
bank $25.35
largest bet $14
longest losing run 4
current losing run 3
POT % = 37.8%
Win S/R = 40.6%

2nd fav
bets 32
bank $34.60
largest bet $3
longest losing run 7
current losing run 0
POT % = 75.2%
Win S/R = 21.9%

3rd fav
bets 30
bank $18.20
largest bet $7
longest losing run 11
current losing run 8
POT % = 33.1%
Win S/R = 16.7%

For Saturday Sydney meetings, all races

1st fav
bets 32
bank $34.60
largest bet $15
longest losing run 7
current losing run 0
POT % = 38.4%
Win S/R = 28.1%

2nd fav
bets 32
bank $22.20
largest bet $25
longest losing run 12
current losing run 6
POT % = 16.3%
Win S/R = 9.4%

3rd fav
bets 31
bank $40.00
largest bet $6
longest losing run 13
current losing run 1
POT % = 59.7%
Win S/R = 16.1%

Even though the Saturday metropolitan meetings in Melbourne and Sydney are showing promising results we can see from the Country, Provincial and non Metro Saturday meeting results that even trying to win $1 for every bet made can have some diabolical results if winners can't be found at regular intervals.

I think it was a worthwhile exercise but in reality to try to win $1 for every bet made using the opening 3 favourites is dangerous.

[Try Try Again]

Interestingly, I entered the 1st favourite (all races) into the Retirement Staking Strategy using the following:-

Divisor = 4 (Average win Dividend = $2.98)
Target = 8
First bet = $2
Starting Bank $100

Divisor calculated as 2 x (Av Win Dividend - 1) = 2 x (3-1) = 2 x 2 = 4

The win bank after 304 bets = $372.60
Profit is $272.60
Largest bet = $38
POT % = 13.3%

When compared to trying to make the $1 on every race method the POT% is comparable (13.3% c/f 13.2%) and the profit similar $272.60 c/f $293.90.

Although the total outlays are similar ($2049 c/f $2228) I think the psychology of have a largest bet of $38 c/f $196 would be a lot more easy on the heart!

It is very important to have a Staking plan which is not out of your comfort zone so you can handle the losing runs without placing you in a stressful position.

Winning with adrenalin flowing but not blood pressure hitting the danger zone!

TTA

[rails run]

Even though the Saturday metropolitan meetings in Melbourne and Sydney are showing promising results we can see from the Country, Provincial and non Metro Saturday meeting results that even trying to win $1 for every bet made can have some diabolical results if winners can't be found at regular intervals.

I think it was a worthwhile exercise but in reality to try to win $1 for every bet made using the opening 3 favourites is dangerous.Hi Try

Have you looked at applying your recovery method to the place results on Fav=1+2+3?

[The Ocho]

Interestingly, I entered the 1st favourite (all races) into the Retirement Staking Strategy using the following:-

Divisor = 4 (Average win Dividend = $2.98)
Target = 8
First bet = $2
Starting Bank $100

Divisor calculated as 2 x (Av Win Dividend - 1) = 2 x (3-1) = 2 x 2 = 4

The win bank after 304 bets = $372.60
Profit is $272.60
Largest bet = $38
POT % = 13.3%

When compared to trying to make the $1 on every race method the POT% is comparable (13.3% c/f 13.2%) and the profit similar $272.60 c/f $293.90.

Although the total outlays are similar ($2049 c/f $2228) I think the psychology of have a largest bet of $38 c/f $196 would be a lot more easy on the heart!

It is very important to have a Staking plan which is not out of your comfort zone so you can handle the losing runs without placing you in a stressful position.

Winning with adrenalin flowing but not blood pressure hitting the danger zone!

TTA
Hi TTA,

I know you've mentioned this before but how does this retirement staking plan/divisor thing work? I've looked it up on the net and tried to figure it out on here as well but I just can't get my head around it. Can anyone shed some light on this?

Also, the average win dividend of $2.98, is that the average divvie of all first favs for all time or just in your test period?

[beton]

Hi TTA,

I know you've mentioned this before but how does this retirement staking plan/divisor thing work? I've looked it up on the net and tried to figure it out on here as well but I just can't get my head around it. Can anyone shed some light on this?

Also, the average win dividend of $2.98, is that the average divvie of all first favs for all time or just in your test period?
TO
These were off the web. May help you

[The Ocho]

Thanks very much beton. I'll have a look.

[Try Try Again]

Hi TO,

The $2.98 was the average price of all winners for the month of January in Victoria during my test period.

Hi Rails Run,

No I haven't looked at place dividends. My gut feeling is the dividends would be too small and there were too many unplaced favourites to work, but I could be totally wrong.