I'm going to see if it is possible to make $1 per bet throughout 2013.

My bets are going to be mainly Melbourne & Sydney races on Saturdays but some Public Holidays and other major days may come into play e.g. Thousand Guineas and Oaks Day.

I'm going to concentrate on the first 3 opening favourites.

To give you some background information.

December 2012

Melbourne

1st Fav...34 bets...8 wins...23.5% S/R...Bank $20.40...longest losing run 8
2nd Fav...34 bets...7 wins...20.6% S/R...Bank $35.90...longest losing run 8
3rd Fav....34 bets...9 wins...26.5% S/R...Bank $35.30...longest losing run 5

Sydney

1st Fav...30 bets...5 wins...16.7% S/R...Bank $24.40...longest losing run 7
2nd Fav...30 bets...9 wins...30.0% S/R...Bank $33.70...longest losing run 7
3rd Fav...29 bets...4 wins...13.8% S/R...Bank $23.50...longest losing run 9

What do you think are my chances?

Probably Buckley's but it's good someone is trying something out on here apart from michaelg and a little of UB and not many others.

I still keep trying to look for something purely automated that I can set and forget on my bot (to augment my trading) but just when you think you're getting somewhere, the law of averages catches up with you, chews you up and spits you out.

I still reckon there's got to be something that can work automatically but, for the life of me, I just can't think of it or find it.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

I've had a couple so that's probably why it's not entirely clear to me what your strategy will be TTY..

In a word. No. I had written out a great story regarding the odds required for various senarios but somehow at the death it got deleted.

But in a word, and my maths are rubbish you would need $5 dividend on the strike rates listed just to break even.

Theirfore it looks like to improve that you have to use Barny's Shakespearan quote from Brutus and hope you are on the flood tide and get off before it receeded like Useless Bettor has suggested.

I think he stated that you have to hope your in luck early " Taken at the Flood " double your bank then withdraw your original and play with the winnings hoping the waters do not reced too quick before you can jump before you blow the lot.

But, old Brutus was not that reliable a friend, after all it was he who put the last knife into his friend Julius Cesar prompting Julius to say ' What. not you too Brutus. "

Star

Thanks for the comments. It appears I'll be pushing uphill to get a result in my favour.

However, I will persevere and see how far the trek takes me!

Strategy is to take the opening price as the divisor into amount required to get $'s bet. I would think 9 times out of 10 the final dividend will be greater than the opening price (no figures just my gut feel). This is where I will have built in an advantage.

Time will tell.

I am also looking at Victorian Country meetings (from 1st January).

1st fav...45 bets...bank $38.30
2nd fav...45 bets...bank $43.60
3rd fav...44 bets...bank $39.50

The chase is on!

Star, taken at the flood refers to a "tight" recurring system with filters that are logical and take advantage of the window of opportunity (important !!) that presents itself with any system ..... the low tide includes filters that do nothing to enhance the system.

I tried to set up counting method with excel, using 1 dollar bets on the "top 5" in various selection methods ranging from 1st top 5 favourites to 10 or so various selection methods including tipsters.
After initial testing of the process, after 1000 races counted, in a word, No.
There was an obvious pattern emerging , which to take it much further was a waste of effort.
This assumes the tests done were in real time, results taken were at interim.
Therefore a few races missed while waiting for results on the previous "bet race".

Thanks for all comments.

An update (I have been away for the past 3 days enjoying golf, great company and plenty of the fluid intake) I have included any Metropolitan meeting that does not fall into Saturday, Public Holiday and Carnival special days (as previously mentioned). I did this before I checked the results.

The Victorian Country and other Metropolitan meetings results are:-

1st fav...59 bets...bank $76.10 (S/R 37.3%)
2nd fav...59 bets...bank $61.00 (S/R 16.9%)
3rd fav...59 bets...bank $52.70 (S/R12.1%)

We are currently above our expected returns (Outlay $176, Bank $189.80) whereas our S/R for opening favourites are greater than expected, I would think our S/R for our 2nd and 3rd favourites are lower than expected.

Any comments (besides too early to tell)?

It's too early to tell

Thanks Barny,

I love your honesty!