Long Shots + Loss Chasing Method = Nightmare!!!

[UselessBettor]

I'll run this thread to test two hypothesis

1. Loss chasing can work.
2. Long shots can be layed for a profit.

Who knows maybe I will prove to myself this can't work. Maybe I will prove it does work. But we won't know till we try it out.

The rules of the system are simple :

1. Must be 8 runners after scratchings.
2. Must be the longest priced Bet price on Betfair
3. Must be able to be layed for or less then $500 odds.
4. My secret filter.... won't be disclosed.
5. Laying to a loss amount not a win amount.

I'll post my win/loss records and if so I can post all of the selections although there may be a few each day.

The loss chasing is simply lay for $100 to start. If that loses Lay to 1.5x the amount. So next would be lay to $150 then 225, etc. You lay to lose that amount only.

I'll assume a 20K bank divided into 2 so we have a 10K bank to bust. So to start with I will be risking 100/10000 = 1%.

Here are the results since Jan 1 :

Jan 1: Lay to $100 : Loss $26.86 : Bank : $9973.14
Jan 2: Lay to $150 : Profit $62.72 : Bank : $10035.86
Jan 3: Lay to $100 : Profit $36.30 : Bank $10072.16
Jan 4: Lay to $100 : Profit $29.49 : Bank $10101.65
Jan 5: Lay to $100 : Profit $61.18 : Bank $10162.83
Jan 6: Lay to $100 : Profit $37.53 : Bank $10200.36
Jan 7: Lay to $100 : Profit $13.08 : Bank $10213.44
Jan 8: Lay to $100 : Profit $15.83 : Bank $10229.27
Jan 9: Lay to $100 : Profit $31.13 : Bank $10260.40
Jan 10: Lay to $100 : Profit $24.97 : Bank $10285.37
Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55

I'll update one day delayed or after the last Australian race.

Notice I had 3 days of losses ... Ouch. I am still down $252.79 and it could go further down if there is a loss before we recover.

I'll keep it going for as long as I am interested in following it.

Enjoy the journey.

[The Ocho]

I hope it turns out well for you (and us) UB. Good luck ;)

[Lord Greystoke]

I'll run this thread to test two hypothesis

1. Loss chasing can work.
2. Long shots can be layed for a profit.

Who knows maybe I will prove to myself this can't work. Maybe I will prove it does work. But we won't know till we try it out..
Balls on block at the go, bravo UB !


Notice I had 3 days of losses ... Ouch. I am still down $252.79 and it could go further down if there is a loss before we recover.
More like you have given up 77% of the very 1st swing on the POrT side
i.e. hardly 'down' - you have only just released the pendulum, my dear calculus !


Enjoy the journey.
All aboard the good Boat Ulysses, chaps!

Cheers LG

PS Ulysses(Jimmy Joyce);
One of the most important works of Modernist literature.. "a demonstration and summation of the entire movement"

[UselessBettor]

After todays races :

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15

Still another $190.19 to go to get back to the bank high.

by the way I have no prior figures that say this will work or fail. I am just throwing something out there to see if it works.

[Star]

Thanks U.B. for doing this exercise. It is these exercises that could or could not lead onto to anything.

These type of exercises are the glue that hold this site together. And sometimes we need a bond stronger the Aryldite.

Star

[Lord Greystoke]

by the way I have no prior figures that say this will work or fail. I am just throwing something out there to see if it works.
All clear.. Full swing ahead if you will, Mr U-Bo'sun...

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01

Another losing increases out losses. I wonder when a winning run will come again.

Next day is to lay to $507

[Lord Greystoke]

Morning UB, a rather odd question here...

Are you any good at graphs, charts on excel etc?

CHeers LG

[UselessBettor]

Morning UB, a rather odd question here...

Are you any good at graphs, charts on excel etc?

CHeers LGnot really

[Barny]

UselessBettor, here's two things I didn't think of when I suggested there woudn't be anyone around loss chasing (in the real world) and that's the certainty that at some point in loss chasing;

You're not going to have a market to bet into and,
If you're betting for the win and you have that horrible run of outs, then the size of your bet will ensure you get way under the odds.

[UselessBettor]

You're not going to have a market to bet into and,
All the prices I use are obtainable and available at the time of recording. For example if I am laying to a liability of $1000 and the odds are $300 I only need to lay $3.33. My program uses the odds at the highes amount I need to do the lay. Although usually this amount is easily possible on betfair. Even laying $10 for odds at $100 for a liability of $1000 is very easy to do. Look at any market on betfair and you will see this liquity available. An example of how my program works is this:

there are bet odds of $100 and lay odds of $120. It will lay at the $120. Lets say I need to lay to liability of $1000. It will check the amount available at $120 and if this is only $4 then we can only lay to $480. It then checks the next higher price for laying. this might be $200 and have $2 available. If this is the case it will record that I could have layed at odds of $200 for $6 for a total liability of $1200. This covers the amount needed and will recored the lay at odds of $200 for a liability of $1000. I assume I will get the worst odds that way in real life betting I can only be laying more and making a larger profit margin.

If you're betting for the win and you have that horrible run of outs, then the size of your bet will ensure you get way under the odds.
Its fixed price on betfair so this has no bearing on it at all. Maybe it will push my prices higher but its easy to lay up to $10,000 liability on betfair. Just take a look at most of the races and you will see the amounts might not be much but if there is $6 available at odds of $500 that is $3000 liability covered. This is frequently more then enough (rarely laying for an amount of more then $10 return).

Betfair fixed odds makes this possible. Mind you without betfair this would not work because of the reasons you have noted so in a way we are both right !!!

[Barny]

Are you punting this UselessBettor ??, 'coz if you are then it will certainly change what I say. I don't believe you can chase losses but I certainly wouldn't want to make that point while a fellow member was putting his money where his mouth was. :)

[UselessBettor]

Are you punting this UselessBettor ??, 'coz if you are then it will certainly change what I say. I don't believe you can chase losses but I certainly wouldn't want to make that point while a fellow member was putting his money where his mouth was. :)
Im just testing it at the moment. I am not putting any bets on although the way I have my test environment setup it gives me a very close approximation to what would happen in real life. I have ran the test environment against real bets and it has a deviation of approx 1 missed bet/lay per 880 recorded.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36

A winning day again :) Only another three hundred odd to catch back up.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62

Back in the black but not fully recovered yet.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62
Jan 21 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $11.06 : Bank $10085.68

Not much action today.

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[UselessBettor]

<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" SIZE="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62
Jan 21 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $11.06 : Bank $10085.68
Jan 22 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.81 : Bank $10104.49

Another day of little action.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62
Jan 21 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $11.06 : Bank $10085.68
Jan 22 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.81 : Bank $10104.49
Jan 23 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $61.10 : Bank $10165.59
Jan 24 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $12.12 : Bank $10177.71

Slowly recovering it back to our high.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62
Jan 21 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $11.06 : Bank $10085.68
Jan 22 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.81 : Bank $10104.49
Jan 23 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $61.10 : Bank $10165.59
Jan 24 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $12.12 : Bank $10177.71
Jan 25 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.45 : Bank $10196.16
Jan 26 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $115.14 : Bank $10311.30

I haven't updated results for yesterday yet so will post them later.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62
Jan 21 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $11.06 : Bank $10085.68
Jan 22 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.81 : Bank $10104.49
Jan 23 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $61.10 : Bank $10165.59
Jan 24 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $12.12 : Bank $10177.71
Jan 25 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.45 : Bank $10196.16
Jan 26 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $115.14 : Bank $10311.30
Jan 27 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $29.15 : Bank $10340.45 <-- NEW HIGH

Back to a straight bet of laying to $100.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi UB,
Nice to see that it has 'reset' the stake / liability for you.

Are you still planning to continue on with the other thread i.e. short price fav's?

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Hi UB,
Nice to see that it has 'reset' the stake / liability for you.

Are you still planning to continue on with the other thread i.e. short price fav's?

Cheers LG
yeah I will be continueing both threads. The long weekend has impacted my ability to keep up to date on all the odds, etc. I'll catch up within the next few days.

[UselessBettor]

Jan 27 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $29.15 : Bank $10340.45 <-- NEW HIGH
Jan 28 : Lay to $100 : Profit of $26.00 : Bank $10366.45 <-- NEW HIGH

A new high.

[Lord Greystoke]

yeah I will be continueing both threads. The long weekend has impacted my ability to keep up to date on all the odds, etc. I'll catch up within the next few days.

Understood. Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" SIZE="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Jan 27 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $29.15 : Bank $10340.45 <-- NEW HIGH
Jan 28 : Lay to $100 : Profit of $26.00 : Bank $10366.45 <-- NEW HIGH
Jan 29 : Lay to $100 : Profit of $00.00 : Bank $10366.45

No Bets on 29th due to computer issues.
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