I'll run this thread to test two hypothesis

1. Loss chasing can work.
2. Long shots can be layed for a profit.

Who knows maybe I will prove to myself this can't work. Maybe I will prove it does work. But we won't know till we try it out.

The rules of the system are simple :

1. Must be 8 runners after scratchings.
2. Must be the longest priced Bet price on Betfair
3. Must be able to be layed for or less then $500 odds.
4. My secret filter.... won't be disclosed.
5. Laying to a loss amount not a win amount.

I'll post my win/loss records and if so I can post all of the selections although there may be a few each day.

The loss chasing is simply lay for $100 to start. If that loses Lay to 1.5x the amount. So next would be lay to $150 then 225, etc. You lay to lose that amount only.

I'll assume a 20K bank divided into 2 so we have a 10K bank to bust. So to start with I will be risking 100/10000 = 1%.

Here are the results since Jan 1 :

Jan 1: Lay to $100 : Loss $26.86 : Bank : $9973.14
Jan 2: Lay to $150 : Profit $62.72 : Bank : $10035.86
Jan 3: Lay to $100 : Profit $36.30 : Bank $10072.16
Jan 4: Lay to $100 : Profit $29.49 : Bank $10101.65
Jan 5: Lay to $100 : Profit $61.18 : Bank $10162.83
Jan 6: Lay to $100 : Profit $37.53 : Bank $10200.36
Jan 7: Lay to $100 : Profit $13.08 : Bank $10213.44
Jan 8: Lay to $100 : Profit $15.83 : Bank $10229.27
Jan 9: Lay to $100 : Profit $31.13 : Bank $10260.40
Jan 10: Lay to $100 : Profit $24.97 : Bank $10285.37
Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55

I'll update one day delayed or after the last Australian race.

Notice I had 3 days of losses ... Ouch. I am still down $252.79 and it could go further down if there is a loss before we recover.

I'll keep it going for as long as I am interested in following it.

Enjoy the journey.

I hope it turns out well for you (and us) UB. Good luck

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Balls on block at the go, bravo UB !


More like you have given up 77% of the very 1st swing on the POrT side
i.e. hardly 'down' - you have only just released the pendulum, my dear calculus !


All aboard the good Boat Ulysses, chaps!

Cheers LG

PS Ulysses(Jimmy Joyce);
One of the most important works of Modernist literature.. "a demonstration and summation of the entire movement"

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

After todays races :

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15

Still another $190.19 to go to get back to the bank high.

by the way I have no prior figures that say this will work or fail. I am just throwing something out there to see if it works.

Thanks U.B. for doing this exercise. It is these exercises that could or could not lead onto to anything.

These type of exercises are the glue that hold this site together. And sometimes we need a bond stronger the Aryldite.

Star

All clear.. Full swing ahead if you will, Mr U-Bo'sun...

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01

Another losing increases out losses. I wonder when a winning run will come again.

Next day is to lay to $507

Morning UB, a rather odd question here...

Are you any good at graphs, charts on excel etc?

CHeers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

not really

UselessBettor, here's two things I didn't think of when I suggested there woudn't be anyone around loss chasing (in the real world) and that's the certainty that at some point in loss chasing;

• You're not going to have a market to bet into and,
• If you're betting for the win and you have that horrible run of outs, then the size of your bet will ensure you get way under the odds.