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ubetido
25th June 2003, 04:04 AM
HI

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY EXPERIENCE IN BETTING MORE THAN ONE HORSE IN THE RACE. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT IF A LOSING RUN OCCURS.

GENERALLY HAVE TWO THREE OR FOUR IN A RACE SOMETIMES ONE. AVERAGE TWO PER RACE

MINIMUM PRICE I ACCEPT IS GENERALLY 8/1 OR ABOVE NO CEILING.

WINNNERS ARE CONSISTENT GOOD FLOW OF THEM AT GREAT PRICES. WEEK AFTER WEEK.
EG. SAT. 21/6/03
XR1. 8/1
XR3. 15/1
SR7. 40/1
MR7. 11/1
AR6. 12/1
AR7. 10/1

HAPPY TO HEAR ALL VIEWS ON THIS.

I CAN SUPPLY SOME RESULTS IF NEEDED.

I JUST THINK WITH THE RIGHT STAKING METHOD THE RETURNS WOULD BE MUCH BETTER.

OR HAS ANYONE HAVE SOME SUGGESTION OF HOW I CAN GO ABOUT THIS.

AND OF COURSE IT WOULD HELP FORUM PUNTERS THAT LOOK AT MY RATINGS TO USE THEM FOR TH E WIN.

VALUE IS THE KEY TO THE RATINGS.


REGARDS
UBETIDO









<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ubetido on 2003-06-25 05:59 ]</font>

Shaun
25th June 2003, 10:13 AM
Great to see another punter going after the big winers....i myself take 4 selections a race and it seams great to get those high priced winners but after you calculate a few losers and placeing 4 selections you need thos prices to stay in front....at the moment i just back all selections equaly at a percentage of my bank....i bet 2% of my bank per race and recalculate the bank at the end of each week...i tried dutching my selections but found when i got the big winners the return was minamal because i didn't have enough on them....maybe you could try a 4-3-2-1 unit bet placeing 4 units on the lowest price and 1 unit on the highest....i have been thinking of trying this...i would love to hear about any sugestions you have on rateings maybe we could share info my e-mail is
shaun2166@msn.com

Bhagwan
26th June 2003, 09:30 AM
What you might find is how often the Fav kocks off your horse .

I have found its best to target races where the Fav is paying $3.60 or more , they they tend to loose more often which is what you want.

partypooper
28th June 2003, 02:23 AM
have you seen the notice on many (so called)one armed bandits (a name NOT picked without a tongue in cheek) it says something like "THIS MACHINE PAYS OUT A MINIMUM OF 85%"
what they are really saying is THIS MACHINE WILL TAKE 15% OF ALL MONEY PUT IN, LIKE CLOCKWQORK"

Like wise all betting races are configured the same way or similar, i.e,. as most are set to something like 120%, what they are saying is we will take 20% MINIMUM of all amounts wagered.

Now I know you dont like that, but no matter how 'YOU" @#$% around with the results and/ or staking plans THAT will be the end result EVENTUALLY, BCOZ it is built in b4 hand, GET IT?????

Ok, so let us presume that the one armed bandit will let us ALTER our stake (on each bet) so we say that bet 1 = $1, bet 2 is whatever and whatever, no matter, as it is always pre set to take the %, GET IT????

In other words ------ you have wasted your time for the last -- years as it is ALL stacked aginst you from day one!!

You will NEVER beat it as it is always stacked against yiou b4 u start!! WAKE UP BOSS!!

SORRY thats why my name is PARTYPOOPER!!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Moderator 1 on 2003-06-28 09:39 ]</font>

puntz
28th June 2003, 08:49 AM
ubetido,

yes, it can be done, I do it.
But I won't reveal it here, or send it by email with all due respect. But first try by using 3 horses. And step by step, according to the results, figure out the next mathematical logic in sequence.
Once you do, then you to will not want to hand it on plate. You become wise, and when I asked the same question, that was my answer, and I appreciate it now.
If you can use a spreadsheet, you will soon figure it out.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-06-28 12:01 ]</font>

ubetido
28th June 2003, 03:15 PM
hi partypooper

well you are not comparing apples with apples are you there is far greater control on choice of odds and decision making on the horses than playing the pokies.

you just have to think outside the box mate and you probably hate to think anyone else is winning.

Sorry mate but just throwing in a question into the forum i feel does not call for your sarcasm irrespective of what your title is.

regards
ubetido

ubetido
28th June 2003, 03:23 PM
hi puntz

well great to hear it can be done because i know it can but just havent had the time to sit there and work on it. I guess i just need a kick start. I certainly don't need a lecture on percentages

if u like to exchange some ideas you can email me ubetido@iprimus.com.au.

i am happy to share some ideas with you

regards
ubetido

partypooper
28th June 2003, 05:15 PM
Ubetido, appologies first, I did sound a bit emphatic didn't I? didn't mean to sound sarcastic iether, in fact I forgot to say that I was only talking about "staking plans" i.e. trying to turn a losing idea into a winning one by use of a staking plan.
But you are right I am jealous of all of you that have found "the winning formula" I'm still looking, envious I should say, as certainly dont begrudge it!!

ubetido
29th June 2003, 06:01 AM
hi partypooper

just because one asks about a staking plan doesnt mean its a losing idea.

perhaps if you were more constructive rather than destructive in your comments people may share there ideas or in fact there way of winning to make you a winner i thought thats what this forum was all about.

Im sure you probably have some good ideas of your own.

Its not an easy road mate but the pool is big enough for all of us to have a drink.

cheers i wish you well
ubetido

Fryingpan
29th June 2003, 03:53 PM
A staking plan from my perspective does a number of functions.

1) It's a form of record keeping of what you bet and what happened.
2) It's a form of balance keeping so you know how well you fare. I use a spreadsheet which helps to do all the little things like correct calculation of profit etc, so you can watch out for the important matters.
3) It's takes part in the decision making process of whether to go ahead or not. (if say you win well and achieved a target.)
4) It can help to work out your bet sizes. That's providing you are balancing it with likely outcomes (which you have a good picture about), and prices.

Because betting on horses is a limited end game and we are collecting from a 85% return pool, it's important get value and that is all about the ratio of Benefit / Risk. If the benefit outweights the risk then it's in your interest to move forward on that using a staking plan. But if the benefit isn't there in the first place no staking plan is going to be effective for you, unless you want to get rid of your money...

With that there are a couple of sources which I have found both informative and helpful.

http://www.form-pro.com.au/Q&A.html
(this is a page with very sound ideas on how to bet)

http://www.practicalpunting.com.au/staking/
(this is a download page for a free article on staking)

ubetido
3rd July 2003, 03:18 AM
hi

thanks frying pan for your input and yes i understand what you are saying.

i am well aware that we dont get the 100% of whatever pool we are dealing with.

the bookies like to have markets that are in excesss of 115% so one has to be careful.

Having said this there is still value out there if you look for it.

Its the very thing that inexperienced punters do is look for a magical plan and thats what system sellers rely on.

I remember one pretty cluey bloke was interviewed in relation to gambling etc. his response.

"YOU CANT CHANGE THE MATH"

This holds true with all forms so the advantage with horse betting is that you can try and get the math in your favor.

It seems from some of the responses i've received that it is presumed that a bad selection plan will somehow become a good selection plan with a good staking plan. This of course is nonsense.

You get a good selection plan first then any staking plan will win.

regards
ubetido

partypooper
5th July 2003, 01:54 AM
Ok, so we start again with a selection plan that shows a LEVEL STAKES PROFIT, a different proposition of course. A heap of staking plans here would increase the margin no doubt, but I would like to offer the folowing idea:
As we all know it's the losing run that kills us all off, so as a means of "spreading the risk" I've been working on an idea to treat say a whole meetings selections as one be OR (and this would suit your plan of more than one sel. per race Ubetido)
The possibilities are endless but one way would be calculate say three runners in a race as one bet i.e. split the stake (whatever it is) into 3 level bets, so for instance say the bet on that race is $30, so $10 win on each, say we have a 5/1 winner, so the return is $60, so we calc. this as an 1/1 winner, i.e $30 out $60 in.

Another way would be to count the entire meetings bets as 1 bet, i.e. say you have a selection method that selects 3 horse per race x 8 races, so 24 individual bets, lets say your staking plan calls for a bet of $72, so your stake is $3 win on each. say you have several winners and your return is $108 (to make the maths easy) so that is equivolent (overall) to a 1-2 winner, i.e. $72 out $108 in, etc etc.

As you can see there is many possibilities here but basically the idea is to avoid the dreaded losing run. Comments appreciated.

ubetido
6th July 2003, 06:10 AM
hi partypooper

appreciate your input and i have thought along those lines myself.

ill post something a bit more detailed when i have more facts together.

cheers
ubetido

Shaun
6th July 2003, 11:35 AM
Partypooper....sounds like an interesting idea but idf the returns were low finding a stakeing plan that could handle this would be needed.
if i remember rightly TESTAROSSA had a plan that might suit backing your selections as singles/doubles/trebles he claims he could make money with the place bet getting $1.
30 average price.

partypooper
6th July 2003, 11:48 AM
forgot to say ,of course you we would be betting race to race, day to day, metting to meeting, or for the super conservative, week to week. Rather than one horse per race betting race to race which is where the losing run usually breaks the bank eventually, as I've previously painfully found out!

OZDOC
23rd July 2003, 02:15 AM
On 2003-06-25 05:04, ubetido wrote:
HI

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY EXPERIENCE IN BETTING MORE THAN ONE HORSE IN THE RACE. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT IF A LOSING RUN OCCURS.

GENERALLY HAVE TWO THREE OR FOUR IN A RACE SOMETIMES ONE. AVERAGE TWO PER RACE

MINIMUM PRICE I ACCEPT IS GENERALLY 8/1 OR ABOVE NO CEILING.

WINNNERS ARE CONSISTENT GOOD FLOW OF THEM AT GREAT PRICES. WEEK AFTER WEEK.
EG. SAT. 21/6/03
XR1. 8/1
XR3. 15/1
SR7. 40/1
MR7. 11/1
AR6. 12/1
AR7. 10/1

HAPPY TO HEAR ALL VIEWS ON THIS.

I CAN SUPPLY SOME RESULTS IF NEEDED.

I JUST THINK WITH THE RIGHT STAKING METHOD THE RETURNS WOULD BE MUCH BETTER.

OR HAS ANYONE HAVE SOME SUGGESTION OF HOW I CAN GO ABOUT THIS.

AND OF COURSE IT WOULD HELP FORUM PUNTERS THAT LOOK AT MY RATINGS TO USE THEM FOR TH E WIN.

VALUE IS THE KEY TO THE RATINGS.


REGARDS
UBETIDO









<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ubetido on 2003-06-25 05:59 ]</font>


Ubetido,

if you like i would like to run your selections ( past results say any 50 - 100 ) through the staking plan we are working on to see if it provides you with a greater outcome.

at this point i can only test for 2 selections per race so if you trial could take this acoount it would be good.

for the trial i will need in time order the races you bet on and the resulting div paid ( if you clooected on that race ) to also make the trial fair i will need to know your starting bank amount that you used in your trial so as to test it apples for apples. if you could also supply your strike rate it would help but this is not important.

what i dont want you to do is provide me with your $ outcome up front.

just email me the test results and i will run the test and supply back to your my outcome complete with data to validate the trial.

then if you want you can reveal your outcome and compare the staking plans.

R
Pete

peteryoung@iprimus.com.au