After big-priced placegetters

[hermes]

I could do with some advice on this system. I think it is a reasonable idea and my tests go well, but it could be enhanced.

The idea comes from the observation that on the TABQ website the Radio Tab tipsters will often pick a low-weighted runner, but it is the NEXT runner down the list that scores (usually a place). For example: the Radio tipsters pick #11 and #12 is in the money.

I gather what is happening here is that the Tipsters have correctly guaged that a runner at such-and-such a weight can make it - but they picked the wrong one. Instead, a long-shot at the same weight scores. Often enough it is the next runner down the list, but often two runners down or one runner up. All the same weight.

My strategy is to try to find a way to pick these long-priced placegetters.

So far a simple filtering to restrict us to the bottom weights:

1. Note the highest number on the Radio Tab picks. (Eg. 3,8,2 = highest = 8.)
2. Eliminate races where the highest is 7 or less.
3. Selection is the next down. Eg. Radio Tab highest = 8 then selection is #9. Bet to place.
4. If selection is scratched, move down to next runner.
5. If Radio Tab highest numbered pick is the bottom weight, pass the race.

This produces long runs of outs punctuated by $7, $8, $10, $12, $15+ placegetters. In my trials at a profit. I tested 380 races, 47 placegetters, return a very good $436. You can also expect the occasional whopping great winner ($50+) but who knows how often?

This is a miserable sample for a system like this. Nevertheless, I think this has potential. Use the Radio Tabsters to alert you to when a low weighted long shot might be in with a chance.

If you scroll through enough past results on the TABQ website you will notice the phenomenon: the Radio tipsters pick #13 and #14 scores a third paying $10+. I'm looking for a way to turn it into a reliable thing.

Any ideas or solid stats appreciated.

Hermes

[Chrome Prince]

Another phenomenon is the consecutive TAB number anomaly.

How many times do 7 & 8, 9 & 10, or even 15 & 16 fill the first two placings even though they are drawn wide apart.

Could it be the weight factor?

Look at last weekend...

Bel R1 1 & 2 Q=$ 3.30
Bel R5 1 & 2 Q=$20.40
Bel R8 2 & 3 Q=$26.60
Ros R1 1 & 2 Q=$ 3.00
San R3 8 & 9 Q=$13.70
San R7 1 & 2 Q=$15.10

Fri
Cau R2 4 & 5 Q=$15.60
Cau R4 5 & 6 Q=$86.60
Cau R5 1 & 2 Q=$15.70
Che R6 3 & 4 Q=$36.60
Eag R2 3 & 4 Q=$ 5.90

Just a handful of examples.

With a few filters to cut out the poor odds...:grin:

[hermes]

Results today were interesting and give ample examples of this phenomenon. It gotta be a means to a buck.


Gosford R3, Radio Tab = 3, #4 ran second = $2.50

Gosford R4, Radio Tab = 5, #6 ran second = $2.40

Gosford R5, Radio Tab = 6, 7 scratched, #8 won, $9.30/2.90

Cranbourne R2, Radio Tab = 11, 12 scratched, #13 won = $7.30/1.90

Cranbourne R7, Radio Tab = 3, #4 ran third = $2.10

Cranbourne R8, Radio Tab = 8, #9 ran second = $8.90 (That's the stuff!)


Mildura R4, Radio Tab = 7, #8 won = 4.90/1.90

Mildura R5, Radio Tab = 6, #7 ran second = 3.30

Mt Gambier R8, Radio Tab = 3, #4 ran third = 2.20

Also some cases where the lower adjacent number got home:


Gosford R1, Radio Tab selected #12, #11 ran second for $2.20

Wagga R3, Radio Tab = 9, #8 won = $15/3.10

Hermes

[hermes]

Off to a flying start today:

Rockhampton R2, Radio Tab picked #4, #5 won = $7.10
Rocky R4, Radio Tab = 5, #6 won = $10.00
Mornington R2, Radio Tab = 7, #8 won = $11.20

Hermes

[stebbo]

Hello hermes,

with all due respect, I wouldn't advise anyone to try to bet based on this "system" For a start, all 3 of your winners today break at least one of your original rules.

2. Eliminate races where the highest is 7 or less.
3. Selection is the next down. Eg. Radio Tab highest = 8 then selection is #9. Bet to place.
5. If Radio Tab highest numbered pick is the bottom weight, pass the race.

MOG : TAB #7 so should be pass
ROC : R2 #4 is bottom weight so should be pass
ROC : TAB #5 so should be pass

Also, you started out suggesting people bet for the place, not the win.

I think you can find patterns like this quite frequently... I've noticed that quite frequently you get 3 consecutive numbers in a box trifecta at the greyhounds... And that if they're 123 they pay crappy, but 567 pays well.... What would be really useful is to determine situations where these patterns might occur.

I do like your idea about identifying races where the low weights have a chance of running well... that deserves some further investigation.

Cheers,
Chris.

[peakester]

Hi Hermes,

Excuse me if I'm reading your system incorrectly but Rule 2 would seem to eliminate all of your selections today & most of the other outlined selections ie eliminate races where Radio TAB selection is 7 or less. Doesn't this mean we are looking at races where the highest tip is from #8 eg from todays meets
VR 8.10
NR 2.10
NR 8.10
QR 1.9
QR 7.9
Cheers
Tony

[hermes]

Yes the winners today are outside the rules I posted above.

But I'm more interested in the phenemonon of these winners and placegetters. The "system" posted above is just a first attempt to nail it. I don't advise anyone to bet on it! But I am asking people to look at this - the TAB number higher than the Radio pick - because it is a notable pattern, and I'm looking for ideas of how to turn it into a winning plan.

Sure there are lots of patterns, but this one seems fruitful to me. It seems the rules I tried above are no good. Try again. Any suggestions? As you can see from today's results this phenomenon can have big days.

Add Race 8 Rocky, Radio pick = 4, #5 won = #16.40.

Thanks for your comments. Yes I chucked out the rules and am more interested in just watching this group of contenders. Days like today convince me I must be able to devise a system or strategy to turn this into a profitable thing. But I need filters.

The selection parameter I am trying now is shortening price in the minutes to jump.

Hermes

[hermes]

I had a break from racing yesterday and just as well! The Radio Tab tipsters were spot on throughout the day. If they called #11 then #11 was in the money. So you get days where this phenomenon just disappears and any system based on it crashes.

But today there was a fortune to be made from this group of runners - one TAB above the highest numbered Radio Tab tip.

Eagle Farm R 3 = #11 = pl. 2.20
Eagle R7 #7 = pl. 5.50

Radnd wick R1 #7 = 5.60 the win 2.70 pl.
Rand R4 #5 = 2.40 pl.
Flemington @1 #4 $44.80 the win, 9.00 pl.
Flem R2 #7 2.40 pl.
Flem R5 #6 $4.30/1.90

Gold Coast R1 #13 = 8.90
Gold Coast R2 #6 = 2.70
Gold Coast R6 #5 = 1.90
Gold R7 #8 = $22.60/5.10
Gold R8 #9 = 13.80 pl.

Inverell R4 #12 5.60 pl.
Bairnsdale R6 #10 3.70 pl.

Vic Park R3 #6 4.60 pl.
Ascot R4 #7 2.70
Ascot R6 #10 Indigo King

Following the original rules I posted at the beginning of this thread, today was a good day.

More generally, it continues to show the potential of this group of runners as a whole.

In my trials you get some BIG winners. We saw one today - R1 at Flemington. Radio Tab picked 1,2 and 3 and #4 won for $44. I need much bigger samples of data to determine if winners like this can be depended upon over a period of time. I don't mind bad days like yesterday if I can score $44 winners often enough.

In my trials so far I'm striking a big winner (around $50) more regularly than every 50 races, on average. Promising.

I tend to weed results like big winners out of my trials. I usually remove the top 10% winners and 10% losers. But I'm beginning to think this might be a way towards a system that chases those biggies.

Any suggestions appreciated.

Hermes

and a happy New Year!

[Merriguy]

Hi Hermes

Enjoy your posts; but I think you will have to drop this idea. I like to think there is some logical basis on my selections. Can't see any here I'm afraid. Its a wonder 'Mr Logic' hasn't been on to you!!!

[hermes]

I don't agree Merriguy. The logical basis is weight groups. I still think there is something in it.

I'II try to tip some from this group today using a filter based on barrier. Here goes:

Geelong R1 #10
Geelong R3 #6
Geelong R5 #6
Geelong R6 #4
Geelong R7 #7

Townsville R1 #6
Townsville R2 #6
Townsville R6 #4
Townsville R8 #11

Taree R5 #10
Taree R7 #7

Stoney Creek R2 #7
Stoney R3 #5
Styoney R4 #9
Stoney R6 #5
Stoney R7 #5
Stoney R8 #6

Goulburn R3 #11
Goulburn R5 #6
Goulburn R6 #4


New Zealand R6 #12
NZ R7 #11

All selections each way.

Hermes

[hermes]

Further Merriguy:

I pulled out 100 cases of those megawinners (win or place) from this group and find a marked proponderance towards inside barriers.

The logical rationale is that we have two runners carrying the same weight but one has a better run than the other. The Radio Tab tipsters have assessed that a certain runner with a certain weight is a chance in its race. But another runner carrying the same weight has a better barrier and a better run home.

It is therefore a matter of physics. The question in any race is which of these animals can carry that weight over that distance fastest? In the cases I am considering, where we have two horses at the same weight (grouped together by the handicapper), the one with the better barrier has the advantage. That's the basis for the tips today.

I don't have a coherent system here. Just playing around with an interesting group of horses.

I start with the Radio Tab picks because they are useful in determining what weight group is likely to win a race. For example, if the Radio Tabsters pick runners 1, 2 and 4 in a race of 12 runners they are saying it is a topweight's race. They are usually right about that, even if its #3 that wins. If the Radio Tabsters pick runners 8, 9 and 11 then they are saying the winner should be among the bottomweights. And they are usually right about that. I find it useful.

Hermes

[hermes]

OK, I've codified today's selections into a set of rules:

Here's the plan:

We target the runners numbered sequentially to the highest numbered Radio Tab tip. If Radio Tab picks #11 then the target horse is #12.

However, if the target is the bottom weight, the next UP the list becomes the target. Eg. Radio pick is #11, the bottomweight, so #10 becomes target.

We move down from scratchings. If the Radio pick is #4 and #5 is scratched then #6 becomes the target.

The selection rule is:

If the target horse has barrier advantage over the Radio pick, select. If the Radio pick is barrier 8 but the target is barrier 4, the target horse is a selection.

However, two other rules apply:

If the target horse is rated 100 on the TABQ, select.
If the target horse is barrier 1,2 or 3, select regardless of barrier advantage.

Back each way.

I'II stick with this plan for a while and see how it goes. In my past race samples for these rules , 410 bets for $496 return, counting wins only. See how it goes over a week of live races.

Hermes

[hermes]

Maybe you were right Merrigum. :eek:

[hermes]

Yesterday 29 bets, wins = $23.50, pl = 22.70.

Today a profit on places:

25 bets for $36.40 pl.

Some good placegetters. See Kynton R8, Colac R8, Hobart R3, for example.

Hobart R3 is a prime example of what I am looking for. Notice the barrier. This horse was a long shot that had a lucky run. That's what I'm after. Roughies that get a lucky run and manage to get in the money.

I think these results are not bad considering we are hunting for megawinners and we must accept bad days and are trying a rough-n-ready filtering.

Still looking for better filters. Currently trying distance as a factor.

Persistent.

Hermes

[Lenny]

Hi Hermes,

Well done on your interesting system. Another vindication for the irrational side of horse "selectioning"! I have some queries about your method I hope you might clear up. You stated:

/
If the target horse has barrier advantage over the Radio pick, select. If the Radio pick is barrier 8 but the target is barrier 4, the target horse is a selection.
/

If the target choice does NOT have a barrier advantage, what is done? Is the Radio pick the choice or is the race passed?

/If the target horse is rated 100 on the TABQ, select.
/
Does that mean if it rated 100, it is chosen regardless of barrier position?

When you talk about the "Radio Tab", I assume you are talking about the dedicated racing station (2KY in Sydney).

Thanks,

~Lenny

[hermes]

Hi Lenny,

"If the target choice does NOT have a barrier advantage, what is done? Is the Radio pick the choice or is the race passed?"

The race is passed. Apart from taking advantage of barrier bias the barrier rule is there as a device to cut the volume of races.

" Does that mean if it rated 100, it is chosen regardless of barrier position?"

Yes.

"When you talk about the "Radio Tab", I assume you are talking about the dedicated racing station (2KY in Sydney)."

Not sure what radio station. The TABQ website in Queensland has three picks labelled "Radiotab" - I assume in Queensland. I've never bothered to look into who makes the selections or how. I just know they have a good success rate and are a good starting point for considering a race.

------------------

As a spin-off from the above rules and continuing this line of research, consider this:

1. Any runner numbered below the Radiotab picks.
2. Barrier 1.

I've tested this on 605 new races now for $599.40 wins and $620.90 places. With another filter it could be a goer.

I tried eliminating longer races on the theory that barrier is more a factor in shorter races but the results didn't match the theory. On the contrary, the better priced winners came from longer races. Which is it? Is barrier more likely to play a role in shorter or longer races? I suppose there are longer races where there are several turns in which inside position would be important?


Hermes

[sportznut]

The Radiotab tips are simply the tips of the racecallers that Radiotab uses.

It's important to note that these racecallers are not always the same as the racecallers that 2KY uses. As an example, today Radiotab had Steve Hawkins calling on the Gold Coast whereas 2KY used Alan Thomas. There were also different callers for Bendigo and Strathalbyn.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-07 22:42 ]</font>

[hermes]

Thanks for that info sportznutz. I realize the RadioTab picks are a tipsters poll. I've checked it a few times against other tipsters polls and found they were much the same, especially in the first two tips.

I've been working on several systems based on the Radio Tab picks. As I say I think its a good place to start if only becausae the tipsters (usually) do their homework.

As you might expect the Radio Tab results are variable according to race meeting. Some meetings they don't seem to have a clue. Others they are spot on, very accurate. In the system ideas I'm exploring in this thread I'm looking for the days when they miss, even though they correctly figure that a low weighted runner can be in the money. They are usually very accurate about that. I use the Radio Tabs to divide races into groups: topweight races, bottomweight races etc.

I don't sneer at tipster polls. They're useful, even given that the tipsters will change from day to day and meet to meet.

Hermes

[hermes]

Nothing much in the meagre races of the latest few days. Today a small handful of placegetters among the losers but a decent winner from the 2nd barrier at Bunbury R3, $17.60/4.70 made the day.

Hermes

[Lenny]

Hi all,

Thanks for your individual replies. Hermes, I hope this system idea pans out. As you use the RadioTAB for selection ideas, perhaps you might considering recorded their selections, the eventual winners AND the race type. Utilmately you may find a link between the races they are good at picking and those that they are not.

I am a big believer in "the right horse for the right race". This concept may have more to do with picking winners than even each horses ability (which is of course critically important). My notion is, ok, they have this demonstrated ability, but how likely are they to reach this ability in the current race, due to the type of race being run? It is at this stage I would consider circuit layout, going and running style.

I also thought I might comment on your barrier position question. Barriers have a big impact on short races, but only (in my opinion) if the race is NOT being run straight (i.e. there is a turn in the run). The closer the turn is to the finishing post, the more impact Barrier will have on a selection. Sprinters, I believe, will have an advantage on a circuit with a close to finish turn.

For longer races, as long as the turn is a fair distance away from the finish, the runners should have a fair chance to position themselves well (probably depending on jockey skill). The closer the turn is to the finish, the harder it will be for off pace runners to make their final charge (I feel). Sound right?

Thanks guys,

~Lenny