I could do with some advice on this system. I think it is a reasonable idea and my tests go well, but it could be enhanced.

The idea comes from the observation that on the TABQ website the Radio Tab tipsters will often pick a low-weighted runner, but it is the NEXT runner down the list that scores (usually a place). For example: the Radio tipsters pick #11 and #12 is in the money.

I gather what is happening here is that the Tipsters have correctly guaged that a runner at such-and-such a weight can make it - but they picked the wrong one. Instead, a long-shot at the same weight scores. Often enough it is the next runner down the list, but often two runners down or one runner up. All the same weight.

My strategy is to try to find a way to pick these long-priced placegetters.

So far a simple filtering to restrict us to the bottom weights:

1. Note the highest number on the Radio Tab picks. (Eg. 3,8,2 = highest = 8.)
2. Eliminate races where the highest is 7 or less.
3. Selection is the next down. Eg. Radio Tab highest = 8 then selection is #9. Bet to place.
4. If selection is scratched, move down to next runner.
5. If Radio Tab highest numbered pick is the bottom weight, pass the race.

This produces long runs of outs punctuated by $7, $8, $10, $12, $15+ placegetters. In my trials at a profit. I tested 380 races, 47 placegetters, return a very good $436. You can also expect the occasional whopping great winner ($50+) but who knows how often?

This is a miserable sample for a system like this. Nevertheless, I think this has potential. Use the Radio Tabsters to alert you to when a low weighted long shot might be in with a chance.

If you scroll through enough past results on the TABQ website you will notice the phenomenon: the Radio tipsters pick #13 and #14 scores a third paying $10+. I'm looking for a way to turn it into a reliable thing.

Any ideas or solid stats appreciated.

Hermes

Another phenomenon is the consecutive TAB number anomaly.

How many times do 7 & 8, 9 & 10, or even 15 & 16 fill the first two placings even though they are drawn wide apart.

Could it be the weight factor?

Look at last weekend...

Bel R1 1 & 2 Q=$ 3.30
Bel R5 1 & 2 Q=$20.40
Bel R8 2 & 3 Q=$26.60
Ros R1 1 & 2 Q=$ 3.00
San R3 8 & 9 Q=$13.70
San R7 1 & 2 Q=$15.10

Fri
Cau R2 4 & 5 Q=$15.60
Cau R4 5 & 6 Q=$86.60
Cau R5 1 & 2 Q=$15.70
Che R6 3 & 4 Q=$36.60
Eag R2 3 & 4 Q=$ 5.90

Just a handful of examples.

With a few filters to cut out the poor odds...:grin:

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Results today were interesting and give ample examples of this phenomenon. It gotta be a means to a buck.


Gosford R3, Radio Tab = 3, #4 ran second = $2.50

Gosford R4, Radio Tab = 5, #6 ran second = $2.40

Gosford R5, Radio Tab = 6, 7 scratched, #8 won, $9.30/2.90

Cranbourne R2, Radio Tab = 11, 12 scratched, #13 won = $7.30/1.90

Cranbourne R7, Radio Tab = 3, #4 ran third = $2.10

Cranbourne R8, Radio Tab = 8, #9 ran second = $8.90 (That's the stuff!)


Mildura R4, Radio Tab = 7, #8 won = 4.90/1.90

Mildura R5, Radio Tab = 6, #7 ran second = 3.30

Mt Gambier R8, Radio Tab = 3, #4 ran third = 2.20

Also some cases where the lower adjacent number got home:


Gosford R1, Radio Tab selected #12, #11 ran second for $2.20

Wagga R3, Radio Tab = 9, #8 won = $15/3.10

Hermes

Off to a flying start today:

Rockhampton R2, Radio Tab picked #4, #5 won = $7.10
Rocky R4, Radio Tab = 5, #6 won = $10.00
Mornington R2, Radio Tab = 7, #8 won = $11.20

Hermes

Hello hermes,

with all due respect, I wouldn't advise anyone to try to bet based on this "system" For a start, all 3 of your winners today break at least one of your original rules.

2. Eliminate races where the highest is 7 or less.
3. Selection is the next down. Eg. Radio Tab highest = 8 then selection is #9. Bet to place.
5. If Radio Tab highest numbered pick is the bottom weight, pass the race.

MOG : TAB #7 so should be pass
ROC : R2 #4 is bottom weight so should be pass
ROC : TAB #5 so should be pass

Also, you started out suggesting people bet for the place, not the win.

I think you can find patterns like this quite frequently... I've noticed that quite frequently you get 3 consecutive numbers in a box trifecta at the greyhounds... And that if they're 123 they pay crappy, but 567 pays well.... What would be really useful is to determine situations where these patterns might occur.

I do like your idea about identifying races where the low weights have a chance of running well... that deserves some further investigation.

Cheers,
Chris.

Hi Hermes,

Excuse me if I'm reading your system incorrectly but Rule 2 would seem to eliminate all of your selections today & most of the other outlined selections ie eliminate races where Radio TAB selection is 7 or less. Doesn't this mean we are looking at races where the highest tip is from #8 eg from todays meets
VR 8.10
NR 2.10
NR 8.10
QR 1.9
QR 7.9
Cheers
Tony

Yes the winners today are outside the rules I posted above.

But I'm more interested in the phenemonon of these winners and placegetters. The "system" posted above is just a first attempt to nail it. I don't advise anyone to bet on it! But I am asking people to look at this - the TAB number higher than the Radio pick - because it is a notable pattern, and I'm looking for ideas of how to turn it into a winning plan.

Sure there are lots of patterns, but this one seems fruitful to me. It seems the rules I tried above are no good. Try again. Any suggestions? As you can see from today's results this phenomenon can have big days.

Add Race 8 Rocky, Radio pick = 4, #5 won = #16.40.

Thanks for your comments. Yes I chucked out the rules and am more interested in just watching this group of contenders. Days like today convince me I must be able to devise a system or strategy to turn this into a profitable thing. But I need filters.

The selection parameter I am trying now is shortening price in the minutes to jump.

Hermes

I had a break from racing yesterday and just as well! The Radio Tab tipsters were spot on throughout the day. If they called #11 then #11 was in the money. So you get days where this phenomenon just disappears and any system based on it crashes.

But today there was a fortune to be made from this group of runners - one TAB above the highest numbered Radio Tab tip.

Eagle Farm R 3 = #11 = pl. 2.20
Eagle R7 #7 = pl. 5.50

Radnd wick R1 #7 = 5.60 the win 2.70 pl.
Rand R4 #5 = 2.40 pl.
Flemington @1 #4 $44.80 the win, 9.00 pl.
Flem R2 #7 2.40 pl.
Flem R5 #6 $4.30/1.90

Gold Coast R1 #13 = 8.90
Gold Coast R2 #6 = 2.70
Gold Coast R6 #5 = 1.90
Gold R7 #8 = $22.60/5.10
Gold R8 #9 = 13.80 pl.

Inverell R4 #12 5.60 pl.
Bairnsdale R6 #10 3.70 pl.

Vic Park R3 #6 4.60 pl.
Ascot R4 #7 2.70
Ascot R6 #10 Indigo King

Following the original rules I posted at the beginning of this thread, today was a good day.

More generally, it continues to show the potential of this group of runners as a whole.

In my trials you get some BIG winners. We saw one today - R1 at Flemington. Radio Tab picked 1,2 and 3 and #4 won for $44. I need much bigger samples of data to determine if winners like this can be depended upon over a period of time. I don't mind bad days like yesterday if I can score $44 winners often enough.

In my trials so far I'm striking a big winner (around $50) more regularly than every 50 races, on average. Promising.

I tend to weed results like big winners out of my trials. I usually remove the top 10% winners and 10% losers. But I'm beginning to think this might be a way towards a system that chases those biggies.

Any suggestions appreciated.

Hermes

and a happy New Year!

Hi Hermes

Enjoy your posts; but I think you will have to drop this idea. I like to think there is some logical basis on my selections. Can't see any here I'm afraid. Its a wonder 'Mr Logic' hasn't been on to you!!!

I don't agree Merriguy. The logical basis is weight groups. I still think there is something in it.

I'II try to tip some from this group today using a filter based on barrier. Here goes:

Geelong R1 #10
Geelong R3 #6
Geelong R5 #6
Geelong R6 #4
Geelong R7 #7

Townsville R1 #6
Townsville R2 #6
Townsville R6 #4
Townsville R8 #11

Taree R5 #10
Taree R7 #7

Stoney Creek R2 #7
Stoney R3 #5
Styoney R4 #9
Stoney R6 #5
Stoney R7 #5
Stoney R8 #6

Goulburn R3 #11
Goulburn R5 #6
Goulburn R6 #4


New Zealand R6 #12
NZ R7 #11

All selections each way.

Hermes