NBL - Round 3

[knowledge]

Wednesday, 13 October
Hunter Pirates v Perth Wildcats
Perth - $1.38

Perth (-6.5) - $1.85

HT/FT Double
Perth-Perth $1.75

Perth should continue their 100% record against the Pirates. Pirates lost to the Bullets by 8 pts, the Razorbacks beat the Bullets by 31 and Perth beat the Razorbacks by 23. Do you need any more convincing? Consider $1.75 value.

Over 199.5 pts at $1.85 looks like a safe bet to me.
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<font size=3>Perth Wildcats 04/05:
<font color="black">Wildcats 120 v Razorbacks 97
Wildcats 110 v Taipans 93

Hunter Pirates 04/05:
Pirates 97 v Bullets 105
Pirates 95 v Tigers 88<font color="#aBc6eA">

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-13 02:04 ]</font>

[knowledge]

Sydney Kings v Melbourne Tigers
Sydney - $1.45
This looks like value to me, I'm surprised to be honest. I thought it would be a lot shorter.

Sydney (-5.5) - $1.85
HT/FT - Sydney-Sydney - $1.85
Over 186.5 Pts - $1.85

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<font size=3>Sydney Kings 04/05:
<font color="black">NZ Breakers 96 v Kings 94

Melbourne Tigers 04/05:
Hawks 96 v Tigers 88
Tigers 99 v Taipans 96
Pirates 95 v Tigers 88
Tigers 112 v Crocodiles 95
<font color="#CCDCCC"><font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-13 02:12 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-13 02:14 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Hey guys what sort of betting limits can you get for NBL? And how long does the season last?

[knowledge]

There are 21 rounds and the last round ends on February 20. I assume there is then a finals play-off series which ends on April 09. I assume it is April 09 because that is when the 'Premiership Winner' market closes.

[Fernando]

Wildcats vs Pirates. The reasons I think the Wildcats will win.

*Average quarter scores*
Wildcats 30 25 35 27.5
Pirates 29.5 30 18 18.5

This indicates the Wildcats are a solid team performing in every quarter. The Pirates however can slack off when they need it most.

*Average shoot percentage*
Wildcats 53.5% - 3 points 53.5%
Pirates 42% - 3 points 42.5%

10% gap on both seems to much to handle

*Average game score*
Wildcats 117.5 / 95
pirates 96 / 96.5

I wouldn't predict a point start yet, as this is my first prediction and bet on a basketball game.

[goldmember]

Pirates v's Wilcats

Piss poor game to start the week off on,and is a danger game for the wilcats,who have had 2 easy games at home and now are on the road for the 1st time,could go either way, so Pirates + 6.5 for me.

Pirates + 6.5 $1.85 [small bet]
Under 199.5 $1.85

Kings v's Tigers

This will be the only the 2nd game for the kings,going down in extra time in NZ, and their 1st at home, whilst it is the 5th game for the tigers winning both home games and losing both away games, the kings should be too strong at home this time.

Kings win $1.45 *
Over 186.5 $1.85

[Fernando]

do you know if there is a difference in crowd size for Wednesday games compared to fri-sat games. Im currently thinking home advantage is a bigger factor in fri-sun games.

[goldmember]

Not sure about the games interstate, but in sydney i think they are down around 15% on wednesdays compared to the weekends, but they always seem to pack the stadium anytime the pirates are at home.

[knowledge]

Wildcats are in hot form and I wouldn't feel comfortable backing against them. Maybe they won't be as efficient interstate but tonight will tell.

I've taken the double, Perth-Sydney at $1.95. Looks value to me, and whatever money I have left after that is all going on Brazil to beat Colombia at $1.25. So in the long run, I'll be safe.

Another system that could generate money is this... Bet 10 units on Perth-Sydney at $1.95: $19.50. Bet 5 units on Hunter-Sydney at $3.85: $19.25. 15 units down for a minimum profit of 4.25, hoping the reigning champs don't lose.

[goldmember]

I backed the razorbacks over there to beat them,cause their pre-season form was terrible and the coach was really pissed off at feeble attempts, must have woken them up, turned out to be a bad mistake on my half.

[Fernando]

you would be better off to back kings H2H with your 15 units


15 units * 1.45 odds = 6.75 unit profit

[knowledge]

Good point Fernando, I didn't realise that.

H2H for Perth v Hunter is 3-0 to Perth, by the way.

[goldmember]

Yeah , ive anchored the kings into the cricket tomorrow and have bet up on them, with a small bet on the other game tonight [although i should leave it alone], the pirates wewre pathetic last year only winning 2 games, but have strengthened their taem this year with Melmeth coming home, Mann plus a couple of others, and should go far better this year, maybe 4 or 5 wins ?

[knowledge]

yep, Goldmember, last season they were the league's doormat. I don't see that significantly changing this season. They may have improved but I still don't think they will make the play-offs.

If they do notch up the 4 or 5 wins this season I doubt they'll come against the Wildcats who are surely a top 5 contendor, do you agree?

I also believe Taipains will be the doormat this season.

[goldmember]

Although the Breakers beat the kings last week,i expect them, along with Taipans and Pirates[ cant make the playoffs ] to be down the bottom.I rate the Hawks ,Kings, Razorbacks and Crocs as the top 4, followed by the Wildcats and Bullets

[Mr J]

How about betsize?

Also, where do you guys bet?

Also, where did you find shooting %s?

Where can I get info for past scores for a few seasons?

The TAB would offer NBL so I guess I could get past spreads from there.

First I'll try my NRL/AFL/S12 system on it. Could work. I'd like to beat NBL, limits couldn't be too bad. What are the limits at sportingbet and IAS?

[Mr J]

BTW, scorelines for previous seasons would be good if they were in tables in this sort of formatt: http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html

[Fernando]

I have only found one source for NBL stats http://www.nbl.com.au and they cover from the start of last season.

I have only one account so im limited to just use NZ TAB. Which only offer H2H and overall winner.

I woudn't know about bet size , I didnt know they changed in between sports.

And that site you gave should come in handy

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fernando on 2004-10-14 17:12 ]</font>

[knowledge]

UNBELIEVABLE! KINGS!

Kings were losing by 30 pts at some stages and in the last 30 seconds, losing by 2 pts, got a turnover, took a 3 pointer, with 10 seconds left to make the scores 90-89!! I had written them off but what an extraordinary comeback. I love this team.

What a mach.

edit: Wildcats won as well by 85 to 72.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-13 21:35 ]</font>

[blackpantha]

I had a multi with Kings and the Wildcats
to win @ $2.35

Lucky 4 me the Kings came through :smile:

[Fernando]

Pirates vs Wildcats - Review

shoot %
wildcats 43%
pirates 31%
around 10% gap, it was the same gap in there pre game average. which is interesting.

3 point %
wild cats 56%
pirates 18%
wildcats continue there average of 53%. Pirates perhaps show a weakness.

The wildcats top scorer R.Tucker didnt play. In his past games he got 33 @ 63% , 22 @ 73%. This could be a reason why the Wildcats points total was so low at 85.

qaurter scores
27 24 19 15 widcats
19 20 21 12 pirates

Pirates droped off in last when the wildcats had a 10 point buffer.

[Fernando]

Crocodiles vs Wildcats: preview
crocodiles $1.40 wildcats $2.75

wildcats will see the return of R.Tucker while the crocodiles will miss R.Brown who has scored in his past games 20 @ 62%, 17 @ 44%, 19 @ 86%. Unless someone steps up the crocodiles need R.Brown as two of there other top scorers are shooting at around 30% (J.Rillie and R.Rose).

Team Shooting %
crocodiles 45%
wildcats 50%

Teams 3 pointers %
crocodiles 26.67%
wildcats 54.33%

Team quarter scores average
30 24.33 22.33 23.33 crocodiles
29 24.67 29.67 23.33 wildcats
30 25 35 27.5 wildcats (with R.Tucker)

The only thing going against the wildcats is the home advantage to the croc's.

Im backing wildcats to win @ $2.75
and the wildcats +5.5 point spread @ $1.90 that i see at an aussie book looks very appealing

[goldmember]

Think the Crocs will win at the swamp, but the $1.40 is a bit short so i've gone for the Hawks @ $1.62 to beat the Breakers in Auckland as my anchor today ending with the 36ers -10.5 @ $1.90 against the Pirates tomorrow night

Hawks win $1.62 *
Hawks -3.5 $1.85 *
36ers -10.5 $1.90******

[knowledge]

I think +5.5 for Wildcats is excellent at $1.90. Wollongong look good as well at $1.55.

[knowledge]

Not quite sure why Razorbacks aren't favourites against Brisbane today... they won by 31 pts last Sunday, why wouldn't they do it today? Despite being away I think they'll win.

West Sydney Razorbacks - $2.60

Once again Perth aren't the favourites.. this time against Cairns. Another mystery to me, why Perth aren't favourites. Home advantage is a bit overhyped in my opinion, Perth have been the best team so far, 4/4. Cairns are 0/2. I'm backing the Wildcats.

Perth - $2.10

Adelaide will beat Hunter and I expect them to cover the -11.5 spread too.

Melbourne vs. Sydney.
I'm not betting on this one, I got extra lucky on Wednesday and I'm not going to push it. However, Sydney's morale will be sky high after that win and they'll come out very confident against the tigers, whose morale may be low. Tigers will also be furious to get revenge, but Kings will want to prove it was not a fluke. All in all it's hard to say how it'll end. Flip a coin, heads: Kings, tails: Tigers.

...

tails.

Good luck.

[Fernando]

Home advantage does seem to be a large factor when they set the odds. All the better for us if we can pick them.

This is the first home game for the Taipans and will need to play very well at home to win this one.
Average shoot %
taipans: 46.00%
wildcats:51.00%

Average 3 point %
taipans: 30.50%
wildcats:52.75%

Im backing wildcats to win.

Bullets vs Razorbacks
Average shoot %
bullets: 37.33%
razorbacks: 44.00%

Average 3 point %
bullets: 28.33.%
razorbacks: 32.00%

only a slight advantage to the razorbacks in most stats. With the 31 point victory last week im backing the razorbacks to win aswell.

[Fernando]

Razorbacks win a tight one 113/111 and the Taipans beat the Wildcats in double over time 108/100.

Taipans shoot 46% 3pointers 43%
Wildcat shoot 41% 3pointers 26%!!!

After backing up yeaterday the wildcats got a poor shooting percentage. This happened also to the Bullets when they backed up.
Which makes the outcome of tonights game interesting, as both teams played yesterday.
Kings vs Bullets.

[knowledge]

Kings will win. I'm quite sure of it. Backing them outright looks the best option as the line looks too hard to call for me.

2/3 of Sydney games haven't had over 200 pts. 200, 179 and and 221.

3/4 of Brisbane games have gone over 200 pts...202, 208, 181, 224.

still can't make up my mind on that one. (over/under)