value (again)

[syllabus23]

Contentious topic.I keep going back to the "value threads" like a dog to an old bone.I have an excellent "dutching" program,it helps me to make a steady profit.I've managed to link it to the retirement staking plan and it works a treat.

But value it aint.

For example.I intend to have a bet in race 6 at Kynton today.I will use the pre-post odds for this example.

Ideal Ben 33 units @ $3 for a "saver"

The Mookta 41 units @ $5 for a "win"

Record Score 25 units @ $8 for a "win".

The Mookta gets up 105% profit
Record Score gets up 100% profit
Ideal Ben gets up,,,money back...

Dutching on tab's is a dicey business.I place my bets in the last minute and cop whatever variation comes up.Sometimes it's my way, sometimes not.

Over time the above approach is bringing me a steady income stream.If it suits me I sometimes use a place bet as a saver.Just log it into my program as a win bet.

This is very conservative punting,but i'm just an old pussycat.On the other hand the poorhouse is full of bold punters.

[stugots]

when i 1st looked at this type of betting it was after reading threads on here & the idea seemed to be to bet alot to win a little - i recall the figures were $700 to $200. now youd never get me betting that way, one of the best ways to the poorhouse ive heard of.

however i started to test my selections with the aim of returning 100% or better per race (much the same as you appear to be doing syllabus23), & suprise, suprise, there appears to be an angle here.

still working to refine the procress but, as i like to get in & out as quick as possible on any given day, the idea of a couple of bets to acheive a 100% return starts to sound like "value" to me.

[sportznut]

Bad luck with Kyneton R6, Syllabus23.

Interesting that the 3 placegetters had barriers 1, 2 & 3 and all were good odds.

[KennyVictor]

You're not a close relative of "The Nose" are you Syllabus? Trying to steer us sheep away from your real selections. :-)

[moeee]

Ideal Ben 33 units @ $3 for a "saver"

The Mookta 41 units @ $5 for a "win"

Record Score 25 units @ $8 for a "win".

The Mookta gets up 105% profit
Record Score gets up 100% profit
Ideal Ben gets up,,,money back...



If you narrow the event down to 3 chances,why not put a reasonable price beside each horses name and back them as though you were getting that price.
If in fact one of your trio will not return a profit with the stake you assign,then leave that stake in your wallet and only back the other 2.

[kenchar]

Syllabus23,

Not knocking what you are doing, you say you are grinding a small profit, good on you, but to me it doesn't make sense.
You back three nags, 1 for 105% profit, 1 for 100% profit, and 1 for money back.
I back 1 nag with 3 chances, min profit 100%, but usually 140%+ profit and I have actually had a 600% profit.
Have you ever looked at place betting.

Cheers

[Imagele]

I reckon it would take one hell of a staking plan to show a profit backing 10yo's resuming from a spell.

[Paddy]

I reckon it would take one hell of a staking plan to show a profit backing 10yo's resuming from a spell.

At least one would think, not too many candidates!

[Imagele]

A lot more than in times gone by Paddy.
Must be some good stuff out there now.
I am the equivalent in human years and am flat out walking to the letterbox.

[Shaun]

Not knocking what you do kenchar but it is easier said then done to pick horses for a place...whats your strike rate like and your average divi....i was just running some tests over my ratings selections my strike rate for my top 3 for a win is 66% with an avearge divi of $5.37....now with those figures i have an 18% T.O.P i can double this if i drop my top pick and go with the 2nd/3rd selections on there own for a strike rate of 43%....yet i look at my best strike rate of the 3 selections for a place it was my second selection with a strike rate of 50% for the place with average price of $1.92....now with those figures i am facing a loss....so whats better a good profit of either 18%>36% T.O.P or a loss

[syllabus23]

If you narrow the event down to 3 chances,why not put a reasonable price beside each horses name and back them as though you were getting that price.
If in fact one of your trio will not return a profit with the stake you assign,then leave that stake in your wallet and only back the other 2.
The "money back" horse clearly means money back on the total bet.

What particularly appealed to me about that race yesterday was the fact that it was "wide open".Anything could win it and anything did.Plenty of exposed form,etc.. shrugs,,,I thought it was worth a punt.

This example just happened to work out at a 100% (or so) profit for a win.Quite frequently this method exceeds that figure considerably.I'm the first person to say that there is nothing new about punting this way.Covering your bet has been around forever.Bookmakers operate this way.Technology has refined the method and made the calculations instantaneous, it also permits you to throw in last minute variables at the click of a button.Including manipulating saver and win bets to gain the best advantage.It also means maintaining a close watch on the market and reacting to it.It works well for me.

I run a place betting column in conjunction with my dutching column.It holds it's own,but over time I do better dutching my bets.Particularly as I run a recovery staking plan (a variation of the retirement plan) in conjunction with it.As I've said before.Each to his own. Good luck,, good punting..

[KennyVictor]

Personally I've always been wary of multiple bets in one race, partly from hearing people say you're betting against yourself, partly from thinking "If the TAB is taking 15% of one bet they are going to love taking 15% of two or three bets" that's almost half a bet gone in tax. But then arbitrage betting (if I understand it correctly) seems the ultimate form of covering your arse with multiple bets and it obviously works OK. If betting on one horse is OK and betting on all the horses is OK logic suggests anywhere in between should be workable.

[syllabus23]

I can safely promote AusTOTE here because I investigated their operation on the recommendation of the owners of this site.

Their 5% takeout results in increased dividends for punters.Frequently the dividends are surprisingly good in comparison with what "used to be" State Government monopolies.

At the moment their pools are relatively small and I suspect the reason for that is that people feel less secure with offshore operations.Coupled with that there is a certain amount of paperwork that you have to navigate your way through.However, even without help from the friendly guy down at the TAB,it's a straightforward process.

I'm happy with them and dont feel threatened by a remote operation.I think principally because they working from an Australian Territory and still controlled by Australian Government regulations.

I'm particularly happy with the extra 10%.

[syllabus23]

I just felt the need to wrap this thread up and I've tried to attach my current dutching account to prove the authenticity of my betting activities.However the dutching program that I use resists all of my attempts to paste and copy etc.

So,comrades,you will have to accept my integrity on this one.

You will see from the included figures that I am a small time hobby punter.My bets rarely exceed $20,I'm well over 60yrs of age and quite frankly I'm just cruising down to the winning post,I dont need the pursuader applied to my ass at this stage of my life.

I'm a "target punter" and "rule off" and start again when I have achieved my current objective.
This current account started last friday 17th Dec 04.The account summary reads like this.........

No. of bets 36
No.of wins 22
Strike Rate 61%
Av Divs. $5.64
Starter Bank $500.00
CurrentBank $764.20
Amount Bet $727.00
Return $991.20
Profit $264.20
Return on Investment 36.34%

That is three days punting.I usually back three horses a race and manipulate saver and win bets to my best advantage.I might add, that from time to time I will back four horses,sometimes two,and frequently use the favourite as my saver bet.But not always.The 61% strike rate is similar to most punters expected rate for place betting,and for three horses a race it kinda makes sense that it would pan out along similar lines.

There is nothing unusual about the above results.Lolol it's not a "golden weekend" or anything like that.You do need a good commercial dutching program,the free ones just dont cut the mustard.You can also see that with 36 bets that I'm a busy old bastard.

The above report is copied directly from the programs betting summary and the arithmetic doesnt really make a lot of sense until you consider that it takes into account the multiple betting nature of dutching.

I have messed around with dutching for years,but I found that trying to do the necessary calculations "quickly" on a pocket calculator continually frustrated me.The technology available today is a gift from heaven.

I'm not trying to sell anything.Just saying to new or young punters "don't dismiss this out of hand" it works. Good luck,, good punting....

[syllabus23]

Ohh,, I forgot to mention,,I use this site for operational purposes.Possibly it's the only decent thing ever to come out of Victoria,perhaps with the exception of VB.http://www.tabracing.com.au/ I find the updates are quick and the site is very user friendly.

My bets are placed with AusTote and returns are better than indicated on my dutching summary.

Also the "Return on Investment" is the return on the "amount bet"

ie 36.34
------- x $727 = $264.20
100
Cheers.......

[shoto]

Hi sullabus23, well done.
I'm interested in your approach. Two questions (of course don't answer what you don't want to):
How do you go about your selections -are you rating them and backing your picks, and/or do you follow the market in some way so that the prices work out for dutching?
When target betting I assume you add all of a previous loss to the target - in other words, not mucking about with seperate columns. If so, don't you find the losses escalate too quickly with a few losing races? (With a 60% S/R that shouldn't happen too often, but probability suggests you could have a run of outs of up to 9 at some stage. How would you fare in this scenario?)
Cheers.

[syllabus23]

G,day Shoto,,,With regard to my selections it will be clear to you that with my blanket bombing approach to betting that I dont have time to pour over form guides.though.......

I do spend hours going through the sectional times for the Sydney and Melbourne tracks for all of their meetings.Weekends and Midweek.This is time worth spending because it throws up plenty of good winners,often at very succulent odds.There are a couple of recent threads on sectionals.I "blackbook" them and they are e/mailed back to me the day before the race.I assume that everyone here is using the "free" blackbook service.

The Victorian tab service ratings are excellent and I always include their 100 pointer.Also I spend a fair bit of time in the Tasmanian tab site at
http://www.thetote.com.au/# Just go into the form guides.You will find that their ratings produce the goods.

I'm retired of course and time is on my side with regard to punting.I have spent a lot of time going through past meetings on the Victorian tab site.One of the things that became clear was that if for example their ratings go like this..100,,,,99,,,95,, ,95 etc etc,, and the odds are more or less in accord with the ratings and there is an 80's rater appearing at $4 or so. "Get on it"...It strikes at an amazingly high percentage.

Betting fluctuations play a big part in my strategy,not always following plunge horses,but trying to read the market and get the feel of the race.I use the site which gives dual acceptors and i treat them with respect.So as you can see I use a fairly broad based approach to selections.

I want to stress that punting is my hobby.It's a challenge and like all hobbies getting positive rewards for your endeavours makes it worthwhile.I have an old mate who flies model aeroplanes,he crashes the bastards all of the time.He just patiently puts them back together and gets back into it.

With regard to losing runs,they do come, no denying it.I read somewhere,Don Scott??? that unless you can actually feel physical pain when you are losing then you are not losing.Lolol if i get a punting twinge I rule off,,bail out and pull the rip cord.As you say at 61% substantial losing runs are rare and my recovery betting does not really permit painful losses.

My softly softly accumulator approach to punting just doesnt appeal to a lot of people and that's fair enough.It's just that when I look at the balance at the end of the day and find that I have made a few bucks I realize that the "value" in punting goes beyond dollar terms.

Good luck,, good punting...

[dingoboy]

Hi Syllabus23,

Nice posting, great to see you having a little fun at the punt.
You are punting with similar styles to myself, never leave out those high priced 100 raters, nice work,

Mery Christmas
Dingo

[DR RON]

Syllabus23, congratulations on your current results. You use an approach that you are comfortable with and over the years i've found it is alot easier to make crucial decisions when your at ease with your betting.
I too have been looking at the Tassie tote site after seeing it mentioned in a post. I have been using the ratings with mixed success. The problem being which rating to use. Using the highest of a horses ratings is of no use if therating was produced in totally different circumstances to todays race. I tend to go for the highest recent rating at the same distance and going, and improvise a bit if this dosent exist.

I also read up about a bloke named Nick Aubrey, also mentioned on a thread
and see that he uses a group of ratings from each horse to do comparisons.

Has anybody else read about his methods and have any comments to make about them?

Syllabus23, which ratings would you use from the tassie site?

[shoto]

Thanks syllabus23, great reply. There is a wisdom in your wider interpretation of the word value. May the Gods smile upon you. :)

DrRon, I think the method Nick Aubrey method you're referring to relates more to pricing. Using a rating for each of the horses say 10 last starts, he arrives at a probability figure for who would beat who within all of these previous starts. It yields a more useful price compared to the more common approach of adding of all the percentages together and dividing by the individual horse's percentage, because it creates a better picture of each horse's ability relative to the other runners in the field.

You can read about it in the 'Punting Articles' section of the Twonicks site. I've spoken to Nick about this approach and found him very friendly and extremely helpful. (I think Mark Reid either uses or has used this approach in his framing of markets.)

[KennyVictor]

I also read up about a bloke named Nick Aubrey, also mentioned on a thread
and see that he uses a group of ratings from each horse to do comparisons.

Has anybody else read about his methods and have any comments to make about them?

I read the article on his use of a group of ratings and have to say I found it a fascinating approach. It makes more sense to compare a reliable horse which returns a similar rating all the time against a patchy horse with good and bad runs using this method. It uses the good runs and the bad runs instead of an average of those runs to create a set of prices. I haven't used the method yet but intend to try it very soon.
His example using the dice is fascinating too and as soon as I fashion a set of these dice and learn how to use them I think I'll be able to grift a lot more winnings from my friends than I ever make at the TAB. :-)

[syllabus23]

Syllabus23, which ratings would you use from the tassie site?

Dr Ron I'm a bit embarrased to say that mostly I use the last rating from the Thorough Form (old Super Form).The main reason I do this is because I have found that they consistently throw up winners at good odds.Having said that, I must qualify that statement and say that I use those ratings selectively when it suits me.Using the range of criteria available to me I might come up with five possibles for any given race.Generally I let the market eliminate two of those and the dutch the remaining three.

With regard to the Thorough Form Interactive one of my friends, who is in fact punting for a living,was astounded at the range of information available on that site.I like to mess around in there occasionally when I have time.But to be perfectly honest whenever I start to get serious about form I find myself starting to suffer the old "paralysis by analysis" syndrome.

Happy Xmas All.........

[Chrome Prince]

But to be perfectly honest whenever I start to get serious about form I find myself starting to suffer the old "paralysis by analysis" syndrome.



Hi Syllabus23,

Merry Xmas.

I've been down that track myself, overwhelmed by information, that I cannot make any decision!

I've found that a lot of information has no direct impact on the horse's performance TODAY.

Pick out two or three important criteria and stick with it, then you stand a chance.

The trick is selecting what is most important, and disregard the rest, including many long held beliefs which really aren't accurate with regards to impact or strike rate.

[Shaun]

Thats the true Chrome...i see some ratings programs and services claim that they use up to 20 different criteria to find there selections....exactly like you say find less than 6 bits of form to study and that will do you....would be interested to know what you and others think is the most important bits...i know we have done this before but never hurts to bring it back to life.