Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 16th December 2004, 11:46 AM
syllabus23 syllabus23 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: newcastle nsw
Posts: 436
Lightbulb value (again)

Contentious topic.I keep going back to the "value threads" like a dog to an old bone.I have an excellent "dutching" program,it helps me to make a steady profit.I've managed to link it to the retirement staking plan and it works a treat.

But value it aint.

For example.I intend to have a bet in race 6 at Kynton today.I will use the pre-post odds for this example.

Ideal Ben 33 units @ $3 for a "saver"

The Mookta 41 units @ $5 for a "win"

Record Score 25 units @ $8 for a "win".

The Mookta gets up 105% profit
Record Score gets up 100% profit
Ideal Ben gets up,,,money back...

Dutching on tab's is a dicey business.I place my bets in the last minute and cop whatever variation comes up.Sometimes it's my way, sometimes not.

Over time the above approach is bringing me a steady income stream.If it suits me I sometimes use a place bet as a saver.Just log it into my program as a win bet.

This is very conservative punting,but i'm just an old pussycat.On the other hand the poorhouse is full of bold punters.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 16th December 2004, 12:33 PM
stugots stugots is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 879
Default

when i 1st looked at this type of betting it was after reading threads on here & the idea seemed to be to bet alot to win a little - i recall the figures were $700 to $200. now youd never get me betting that way, one of the best ways to the poorhouse ive heard of.

however i started to test my selections with the aim of returning 100% or better per race (much the same as you appear to be doing syllabus23), & suprise, suprise, there appears to be an angle here.

still working to refine the procress but, as i like to get in & out as quick as possible on any given day, the idea of a couple of bets to acheive a 100% return starts to sound like "value" to me.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 16th December 2004, 03:06 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
Member.
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 2,266
Default

Bad luck with Kyneton R6, Syllabus23.

Interesting that the 3 placegetters had barriers 1, 2 & 3 and all were good odds.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 16th December 2004, 03:32 PM
KennyVictor KennyVictor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Mt Tamborine
Posts: 574
Default

You're not a close relative of "The Nose" are you Syllabus? Trying to steer us sheep away from your real selections. :-)
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 16th December 2004, 06:09 PM
moeee moeee is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by syllabus23

Ideal Ben 33 units @ $3 for a "saver"

The Mookta 41 units @ $5 for a "win"

Record Score 25 units @ $8 for a "win".

The Mookta gets up 105% profit
Record Score gets up 100% profit
Ideal Ben gets up,,,money back...



If you narrow the event down to 3 chances,why not put a reasonable price beside each horses name and back them as though you were getting that price.
If in fact one of your trio will not return a profit with the stake you assign,then leave that stake in your wallet and only back the other 2.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 16th December 2004, 08:36 PM
kenchar kenchar is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: SYDNEY
Posts: 723
Default

Syllabus23,

Not knocking what you are doing, you say you are grinding a small profit, good on you, but to me it doesn't make sense.
You back three nags, 1 for 105% profit, 1 for 100% profit, and 1 for money back.
I back 1 nag with 3 chances, min profit 100%, but usually 140%+ profit and I have actually had a 600% profit.
Have you ever looked at place betting.

Cheers
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 16th December 2004, 10:05 PM
Imagele Imagele is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Tasmania
Posts: 383
Smile

I reckon it would take one hell of a staking plan to show a profit backing 10yo's resuming from a spell.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 16th December 2004, 11:25 PM
Paddy Paddy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,783
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imagele
I reckon it would take one hell of a staking plan to show a profit backing 10yo's resuming from a spell.


At least one would think, not too many candidates!
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 16th December 2004, 11:33 PM
Imagele Imagele is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Tasmania
Posts: 383
Default

A lot more than in times gone by Paddy.
Must be some good stuff out there now.
I am the equivalent in human years and am flat out walking to the letterbox.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 16th December 2004, 11:35 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,408
Default

Not knocking what you do kenchar but it is easier said then done to pick horses for a place...whats your strike rate like and your average divi....i was just running some tests over my ratings selections my strike rate for my top 3 for a win is 66% with an avearge divi of $5.37....now with those figures i have an 18% T.O.P i can double this if i drop my top pick and go with the 2nd/3rd selections on there own for a strike rate of 43%....yet i look at my best strike rate of the 3 selections for a place it was my second selection with a strike rate of 50% for the place with average price of $1.92....now with those figures i am facing a loss....so whats better a good profit of either 18%>36% T.O.P or a loss
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 11:35 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655