Still Going Strong

[Chuck]

Had a look at the recent results of my old 1-1 system for Saturday, and i was pleasantly suprised!
SR01-1 1st
MR01-1 3rd
BR01-1 2nd
AR01-1 2nd
CR01-1 1st
WR01-1 1st
TR01-1 1st

Selections: 7
Places: 7
Wins: 4 (Return $12.40)

Rules for those who don't know them:
-Race 1 Number 1
-Inside $8.00
-Barrier 1-8

Chuck

[darkydog2002]

Not much joy in this one Chuck.Sorry.

3 years results .

BETS = 4649 /WINS 991/STRIKE RATE 21.32 %

LOSS ON TURNOVER = 19.46 %

Cheers.
Darky.

[gizzard]

darky, could you check some results for me too?

I have been doing ok with a place system for a while but it has recently turned against me. I was wondering what kind of results it gives historically to determine whether to continue with it or not.

I guess this should be in the system thread really but anyway the rules are:

1. #1 - Top Weight or Equal Top Weight
2. Won last start unless first up after a spell
3. Ran in last 14 days
4. <= 12 runners

As I say, this is a Place system

Any feedback would be appreciated.

[darkydog2002]

Over 3 years.
WIN
884 bets/215 wins/Strike rate 24.32 %/LOT 20.93 %

PLACE
884 bets/496 places /Strike rate 56.11 %/LOT 13.69 %

1ST UP

122 bets /19 wins /win % 15.57 %/LOT 44.84 %

PLACE
122 bets /51 places /Strike rate 41.8 %/LOT 27.6 %

Cheers.
darky.

[Ron50]

Sorry Chuck I tried that one 16 years ago but could not make a profit.Please keep trying as the" Holy Grail" is out for we mortals to find.

Cheers,
Ron.

[gizzard]

Thanks Darky....I'll keep looking for a system!

It's amazing how a small sample can throw you out.
My own is based on 100 races and gave:

Win SR 28% LOT -25.1%
Place SR 71% POT 8.5%

There's a big difference in the Place strike rate in my sample and the historical data over 3 years.

[Shaun]

Guys the Holy Grail is out there and being used by a select few that don't post on here

[darkydog2002]

The more filters you have the less likely is a system to perform.

Cheers.
darky.

[Shaun]

Thats the truth Darky.....less filters means less complicated...filters help us to cut down on the bets....i think 5 is plenty

[marcus25]

Thanks Darky....I'll keep looking for a system!

It's amazing how a small sample can throw you out.
My own is based on 100 races and gave:

Win SR 28% LOT -25.1%
Place SR 71% POT 8.5%

There's a big difference in the Place strike rate in my sample and the historical data over 3 years.

Hi Gizzard!
The most important factor to look for when you checking past data is the possibility that there was an abnormally high win or place return! These have to be descarded if you want to have a realistic statistical result. Unless of course you are deliberately targeting long shots.
Cheers!

[shoto]

Yes. More filters usually means more backfitting, which can create great results from past results, but not so good results on future races. A recent quote of Bhagwan's is spot on - "trying to find patterns is like analysing shifting sands".

Filters need to be created out of a logical process first, and then applied to the data, rather than randomly trying things and keeping them if they happen to increase the profit over a set of past results.

Shaun: "Guys the Holy Grail is out there and being used by a select few that don't post on here" ... any more details on that one?? :):)

[Chuck]

Last week:
MR1-1 X
AR 1st $2.80 & $1.40
PR 1st $4.20 & $1.70
CR X
WR 1st $1.40 & $1.10

Today:
SR1-1 1st $5.60
MR 4th
BR 4th
PR 2nd $2.00
WR X

Two week Win Outlay ($10 each): $100
Return : $140

More profits!!

[gizzard]

Over 3 years.
WIN
884 bets/215 wins/Strike rate 24.32 %/LOT 20.93 %

PLACE
884 bets/496 places /Strike rate 56.11 %/LOT 13.69 %
Darky, I took another look at the results you were good enough to post and see that there were only 884 bets. Were these restricted to Metro only or, perhaps, just for certain states? I would expect far more over 3 years.
Thanks.

[darkydog2002]

They were for every type of race 7 days a week everywhere.
Cheers.
darky.

[Chuck]

2 selections on Sunday for a 1st ($3.40 & $1.70) and a 3rd ($1.80)

[Shaun]

Well as far as horse racing is concerned it has been spoken about on here before of backing the whole field....but i can't go in to it...last time it created a hell storm....but on a more moden note....what aout backing a selection then laying it back at a lower price for a definate profit....that seams to be the holy grail to me

[Chuck]

sounds good to me!

[yuckman]

Guys,
I've just run this data thru Bet Selector(Price Predictor) for all races in 2004.
Horses paying between $2 and $20 for the win were winning 86% of races, with a 15% LOT.
Horses paying between $1.10 and $20 got up in 93% of races- LOT was 15%.
Horses paying up to $10 won 80%, with a LOT% of 15%

That's just a single filter- Those of you that dutch bet could make a quid from that one!

[Chuck]

Today's Results:

SR1-1 3rd $2.00
MR 1st $6.00 & $1.70
AR 3rd N.T.D
CR 2nd $1.04
WR 2nd $1.30

3 week outlay: $150
3 week return: $200

[Chuck]

Yesterday:

SR1-1 3rd NTD
MR 4th
AR 3rd $1.40
BR 1st $1.30 & $1.20
CR 2nd $1.50
WR 2nd $1.90
TR 1st $6.10 & $2.30

4 Week Outlay: $200
4 Week Return: $294

POT 47%

[Merriguy]

Hey, Chuck, you have an outlay there of $70, not $50. The return for the win was $7.50, outlay $7.00. A POT of 7% --- nice, but not the 50% implied (or am I missing something?!?)

[Chuck]

oops, made a mistake there with the calculating, but i can't fix it up cos of the editing thing its supposed to be: in 220 out 294, and the POT was for that, not just yesterday, but it was still wrong

[Chuck]

today:
SR1-1 X
MR 1st $2.70 & $1.30
BR 1st $1.80 & $1.20
CR 1st $2.80 & $1.60

Sunday -

Outlay: $40
Return: $74

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the correction, Chuck. Wasn't on line yesterday :( Looks like I missed a few good ones. Congrats.

[Chuck]

SR 2nd $2.10
BR 1st $4.10 & $1.50
AR 3rd $1.80
PR 1st $1.50 & $1.10
CR 1st $2.40 & $1.04
WR 2nd $1.20
TR 3rd $1.20

Outlay so far: $290
Resturn: $374