Ratings Challenge

[DR RON]

if scratchings

race 7

timbourina
race 8
chainsaw charlie

[ubetido]

ROSEHILL

RACE 7
10 JAMIESON VALLEY 1.8
8 UTZON 5.6
9 COOL FONT 10.7
7 TIMBOURLINA 13.1
4 PATEZZA 30.3

RACE 8
2 JERMIAD 4.0
4 SEUL AMOUR 5.2
1 COUNTY TYRONE 10.8
7 SUNSHINE SAM 14.1
11 CHAINSAW CHARLIE 15.9

[Top Rank]

Good races, like these two. Anyway here goes.


Race 7
Patezza - $3.00
Desert War - $3.80
Utzon - $7.50
Damigos - $10.00
Presently - $10.00


Race 8
Seul Amour - $2.50
Leg Irons - $4.50
Jeremiad - $6.50
Dial Tones - $10.00
Diamond Sun - $10.00

Good Punting

[Duritz]

Desert War is scratched. Probably can't win then.

[Top Rank]

Thanks Duritz,

Think I will wait till tomorrow for an update.

Good Punting

[Top Rank]

Ubetido,

Just curious, I see you have Jamieson Valley at 1.8 for Race 7. I did have a fairly high opinion of this neddy but last time in it was most disappointing. Are you going back to its early 3yo days to have it so short.

And just a general question, does anybody mind if we ask each other their thoughts on a particular rating for a horse. I read everyones ratings and I am intrigued at times to know what the thoughts are behind the rating. I am not saying it only if I see a rating that is a lot shorter than I believe it should be, but at times I see a rating that agrees strongly with my own and would like to check the raters thoughts.

I don't expect anyone to give away trade secrets, just generalised thoughts.

Good Punting

[Duritz]

I have no problem with anyone at all questioning how I came to rate a horse, I'll tell them anything. Ask away, if any of my ratings happen to intrigue, which is probably unlikely.... ;)

Especially if I say a horse CAN'T win, like in melbourne there's a certain horse going around who can't win called


COOL TRENT!!!!!!!! LAY TO THE HILT!!!!!!

[Top Rank]

Duritz,

I don't have your obvious passion for the subject but I also believe he is a good risk tomorrow.

[Chrome Prince]

ROSEHILL RACE 7

2 Inspire (rated an odds on favourite)
10 Jamieson Valley
5 Damigos
9 Cool Front
7 Timbourina

ROSEHILL RACE 8

4 Seul Amour
6 Leg Irons
1 County Tyrone
2 Jeremiad
8 Diamond Sun

[Top Rank]

Chrome,

Can I ask how you come to rate Inspire odds on and don't rate Patezza in your top five.

[the mug]

syd r7
4- Patezza 4.70
3- Mustard 5.40
9- Cool Front 5.40
5- Damigos 6.70
6- Presently 6.70

syd r8
4- Seul amour 5.00
8- Diamond Sun 6.00
9- Desert storm 6.00
2- Jeremiad 8.50
6- Leg Irons 8.50

cheers n good luck

[zorro]

Race 7
4 Patezza 3.70
9 Cool Front 5.30
8 Utzon 7.50
7 Timbourina 7.50
2 Inspire 10.70

Race 8
6 Leg Irons 3.20
4 Seul Amour 3.20
9 Desert Ransom 9.30
5 Dial tones 9.30
10 Mahtoum 10.70

[Jimmy]

Hi Guys,

Race 7. Spasa Frederick Clissold Stks.

4 Patezza
6 Presently
3 Mustard
9 Cool Front
2 Inspire

Race 8. Feb 26 Nova 969 Party Hcp.

4 Seul Amour
9 Desert Ransom
5 Dial Tones
1 County Tyrone
12 Keeping The Faith

[La Mer]

Race 7:
Patezza $4.50
Utzon $5.20
Cool Front $6.00
Damigos $8.00
Mustard $10.80

Race 8:
Leg Irons $4.50
Dial Tones $5.60
Seul Amour $7.00
Desert Ransom $7.00
Diamond Sun $9.00

[Sportz]

RACE 7:
9 COOL FRONT $2.50
4 PATEZZA $4.20
6 PRESENTLY $6.60
8 UTZON $14.60
5 DAMIGOS $14.60

RACE 8:
4 SEUL AMOUR $1.90
9 DESERT RANSOM $5.60
8 DIAMOND SUN $7.70
6 LEG IRONS $10.90
5 DIAL TONES $46.30

[Filante]

ROSEHILL RACE 7

9. Cool Front $2.8
8. Utzon $5.3
6. Presently $6.8
5. Damigos $7.5
4. Patezza $10

ROSEHILL RACE 8

4. Seul Amour $4.4
5. Dial Tones $5.3
2. Jeremiad $5.7
9. Desert Ransom $6.2
6. Leg Irons $11.0

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome,

Can I ask how you come to rate Inspire odds on and don't rate Patezza in your top five.

Inspire won a $330,000 race last start, and Patezza ran 2nd in an $80,000 race. Now while the actual class was only an Open for Inspire and a LR for Patezza, I hold a lot more credence on the merits of Inspires run. Inspire is coming back in distance and beat 16 runners home, Patezza is going up in distance and only beat 8 runners home. Also the PPP ratings for the races rate Inspire's run better than Patezza. I think it's a pretty good case for Inspire, but of course we shall see.

[Shaun]

I agree with you totaly Crome Prince...i was listening to that race the other day and it was a good one....i can only find one problem is that Inspire is not the best at 1200m but hopefully that won't be a problem.....anf he raced 5 days ago so thats a good sign....funny i didn't rate him in my chances because i was using a program i developed...but i do have a scratching in that race so i will slip him in....and am going to have a big wack at him as well.

[Filante]

Inspire won a $330,000 race last start, and Patezza ran 2nd in an $80,000 race. Now while the actual class was only an Open for Inspire and a LR for Patezza, I hold a lot more credence on the merits of Inspires run. Inspire is coming back in distance and beat 16 runners home, Patezza is going up in distance and only beat 8 runners home. Also the PPP ratings for the races rate Inspire's run better than Patezza. I think it's a pretty good case for Inspire, but of course we shall see.

No wins at 1,200m from 9 tries and no wins from 11 tries at Rosehill.

[Shaun]

My updated ratings.....even thought i didn't have Inspire in my first picks i have decided to replace the scratched Desert War with a pinch hitter


SR7
2 Inspire (3) $3.99
9 Cool Front (2) $6.49
4 Patezza (1) $8.69
3 Mustard (8) $8.69
8 Utzon (10) $8.95

SR8
2 Jeremiad (13) $5.54
1 County Tyrone (9) $7.08
4 Seul Amour (NZ) (8) $7.57
6 Leg Irons (1) $8.88
8 Diamond Sun (NZ) (6) $10.49


Inspire is actualy rated at 12/1 on Tabform

my original ratings had him at 10/1
so i guess this this will be an interested test...ratings V emotion i really like this horse

[Sportz]

Worried about leaving Jeremiad out of the last race.

[Top Rank]

With Both eyes open, no better chance but.


Race 7

Patezza - $2.20
Cool Front - $3.60
Utzon - $4.70
Damigos - $8.50
Presently - $8.50


Race 8

Seul Amour - $2.50
Leg Irons - $4.50
Jeremiad - $6.50
Dial Tones - $10.00
Diamond Sun - $10.00

Good Punting

[Top Rank]

Shaun,


How many ratings points do you give for emotion and do you have a range of emotions and a corresponding ratings system.

[Top Rank]

Chrome,

Thanks for the reply and I think some of the points are valid. But to have Inspire rated at odds on and no place for Patezza in your top five???

But as you say only time will tell.

Good Luck

[Shaun]

HHHmmm i did some checking and Inspire was not the horse that i heared run 5 days ago....well that changes things a bit...see what emotion can do get you in trouble....but like all things that can and will happen in racing i am leaving him as my top rater because i know if i change it now he will win...lol

[QuickFunBet]

Rosehill Race 7
9. Cool Front $4.50
5. Damigos $7.00
4. Patezza $7.50
6. Presently $8.00
8. Utzon $9.00

Rosehill Race 8
13. Verb $5.50
10. Mahtoum $7.50
6. Leg Irons $8.50
4. Seul Amour $9.50
8. Diamond Sun $9.90

Thanks,
QFB

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome,

Thanks for the reply and I think some of the points are valid. But to have Inspire rated at odds on and no place for Patezza in your top five???

But as you say only time will tell.

Good Luck

I'm curious, what do you like so much about Patezza?

[Top Rank]

Patezza was twice Black type placed last time in and beaten less than three lengths in three other black type events. I believe he is the best horse in the race. He is a definite Group 2-3 class horse

He showed he has come back to racing well with a great finish in the black type Satellite Stakes and carries 1kg less than last start, I think mainly due to the fact that Desert War at the top pushed weights down and he is now out.

His one drawback is his racing style. That for me is the one problem, so I would'nt be taking too short a price.

It's all good stuff.

Good Punting.

[Sportz]

HHHmmm i did some checking and Inspire was not the horse that i heared run 5 days ago

I was confused when you mentioned that bit. I knew that his last run was a win on the Gold Coast on Magic Millions day.

[Heavyweight]

SR7

9. Cool Front $1.90
4. Patezza $5.50
5. Damigos $6.50
3. Mustard $16.00
6. Presently $21.00

SR8

4. Seul Amour $3.75
9. Desert Ransom $5.50
8. Diamond Sun $6.50
6. Leg Irons $8.00
2. Jeremiad $10.00

Enjoy your day's punting, all.
Cheers,
H.

[Chrome Prince]

Patezza was twice Black type placed last time in and beaten less than three lengths in three other black type events. I believe he is the best horse in the race. He is a definite Group 2-3 class horse

He showed he has come back to racing well with a great finish in the black type Satellite Stakes and carries 1kg less than last start, I think mainly due to the fact that Desert War at the top pushed weights down and he is now out.

His one drawback is his racing style. That for me is the one problem, so I would'nt be taking too short a price.

It's all good stuff.

Good Punting.

That's a fair synopsis, what put him down in the ratings with me was the low API and last run prizemoney compared to the rest of the runners. That's not to say he's not a capable type, but I don't like digging too far back into a horse's past.

It's all academic anyway, as they'll probably run the quinella now and we won't be on it ;)

[Sportz]

Well done to those who had Mahtoum in their 5! I only had it rated 8th. :o

[Sportz]

This week:
zorro (67.5 + 62.5) 130 pts
QuickFunBet (77.5 + 40) 117.5 pts
La Mer (87.5 + 25) 112.5 pts
Filante (85 + 25) 110 pts
Top Rank (87.5 + 20) 107.5 pts
Sportz (77.5 + 22.5) 100 pts
Dr Ron (70 + 25) 95 pts
Duritz (47.5 + 35) 82.5 pts
Shaun (60 + 12.5) 72.5 pts
Heavyweight (50 + 17.5) 67.5 pts
ubetido (57.5 + 10) 67.5 pts
xpt driver (45 + 15) 60 pts
The mug (40 + 17.5) 57.5 pts
Jimmy (30 + 20) 50 pts
Chrome Prince (25 + 15) 40 pts

Overall:
Sportz 450 pts
Filante 417.5 pts
La Mer 412.5 pts
zorro 400 pts
Top Rank 372.5 pts
Jimmy 355 pts
Duritz 352.5 pts
QuickFunBet 342.5 pts
Heavyweight 330 pts
xpt driver 312.5 pts
Shaun 292.5 pts
Dr Ron 280 pts
ubetido 280 pts
Chrome Prince 277.5 pts
The mug 270 pts

[Chrome Prince]

Well done guys.....I'll slink off to a dark corner now :(

[the mug]

Chrome..
I might join you in the corner..I'm the only one holding you up down their...

I think i need a hug!!

Good tipping guys.

[Top Rank]

Chrome,

You'll be back next week. There's nothing as hardy as a punter, unbreakable.
Back on the horse, young man.

Good Punting

[ubetido]

Hi Top Rank

Sorry for answering you a bit late but to answer your question jameison valley would provide me with a high rating irrespective of anything else. The question is take it or leave it. In this case the market was right.

However this horse was pretty good in its earlier days. There had been a switch of trainer. Racing first up is an unknown but at times these have got up at big odds when not expected. Had recently just been beaten in a trial.

So in all i would've thrown it in. I don't normally price my horses so i wouldn't put too much credence in my odds.

Sometimes theres a bees knacker between and making a decision and switching can be costly at times on the last two occassion (Irish Crusader/Mahatoum have been the sixth rater a bees knacker in difference from the 5th rater.

So i just go with whatever the rating spits out. I just don't have the time to study the form as closely as some on the forum.

Just as a observation when races are 1400m or more and you have fresh or first up horses and they rate well it is generally hard to get them as winners due to fitness i reckon. Up to 1200m its ok.

All the best
ubetido

[Sportz]

Okay, here's this week's two races. I usually prefer to use open races, but after looking at the fields, I think Caulfield R4 (3YO) is a more suitable race this week.

CAULFIELD R4 - WELLINGTON R.C. STAKES 1400 M ($75750) 3YO SWP (listed)
1 ECONSUL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 5 58
2 TIRADE Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 4 58
3 CLASSICONI Shane Fliedner G Childs 9 58
4 ZANKEL (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith V Hall 10 58
5 WILDLY Rick Hore-Lacy M Flaherty 2 57.5
6 PROCESSOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson S W Arnold 7 56.5
7 NICONERO Tony McEvoy N Rawiller 1 56.5
8 TRULY WICKED Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 13 55.5
9 SHINZIG Chris Waller Steven King 3 54.5
10 VOLITANT Michael Hibbs B Shinn (a) 8 54.5
11 CAPTIOUS (NZ) Mick Price 15 54.5
12 BROMIDE John Hawkes D Gauci 6 54.5
13 PAPPAGALLO Ross McDonald 11 54.5
14 TALONS SHOWN Lee Freedman D Oliver 12 54
15 ASTRODAME Brian Mayfield-Smith 14 53

CAULFIELD R5 - C.F. ORR STAKES 1400 M ($302000) WFA (Group1)
1 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 15 58
2 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman N Ryan (a) 10 58
3 PENTASTIC Colin Alderson B Shinn (a) 8 58
4 MR. MURPHY Lee Freedman 7 58
5 REGAL ROLLER Clinton McDonald M Flaherty 6 58
6 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison D Dunn 5 58
7 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton V Hall 3 58
8 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 9 58
9 RIZON Cliff Brown G Childs 1 58
10 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 11 58
11 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman Steven King 4 55.5
12 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody L Nolen 13 55.5
13 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 12 54.5
14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S W Arnold 14 54.5
15 DANEHILL EXPRESS Brian Mayfield-Smith D Oliver 2 54.5

Good luck! :)

[zorro]

Good choices Sportz.
I was only going to look at 3 races at Caulfield this week - races 1, 4 and 5!

[Shaun]

If i get them finished i have some new class ratings i want to test on these races....want be able to provide prices i don't think but will see

[ubetido]

CAUFIELD RACE 4
7 NICONERO 5.0
8 TRULY WICKED 7.5
14 TALONS SHOWN 8.8
1 ECONSUL 9.8
3 CLASICONI 10.4

CAUFIELD RACE 5
13 SAVABEEL 3.4
11 MAKYBE DIVA 5.6
14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT 7.5
1 ELVSTROEM 7.6
8 LAD OF THE MANOR 16.5

[Heavyweight]

Won't be around tomorrow, so I'll list them down to 8th in case of scratchings:

MR4

14. Talons Shown $2.25
3. Classiconi $5.50
7. Niconero $10
5. Wildly $10
12. Bromide $13
2. Tirade $34
9. Shinzig $81
6. Processor $81

MR5

14. Not a Single Doubt $1.90
8. Lad of the Manor $6.50
7. Casual Pass $11
11. Makybe Diva $12
15. Danehill Express $16
13. Savabeel $26
10. Pretorius $61
3. Pentastic $101

Best of luck all.

[Duritz]

Is Regal Roller scratched or something???

[QuickFunBet]

Caulfield Race 4
1. Econsul $4.80
9. Shinzig $5.00
10. Volitant $9.00
2. Tirade $10.00
8. Truly Wicked $13.00

Caulfield Race 5
15. Danehill Express $6.50
1. Elvstroem $7.50
5. Regal Roller $8.00
8. Lad Of The Manor $9.00
14. Not A Single Doubt $10.00

Thanks,
QFB

[Chrome Prince]

Well here they are for better or worse...

Caulfield 4 2 Tirade
Caulfield 4 8 Truly Wicked
Caulfield 4 3 Classiconi
Caulfield 4 5 Wildly
Caulfield 4 7 Niconero

Caulfield 5 7 Casual Pass
Caulfield 5 5 Regal Roller
Caulfield 5 12 Vouvray
Caulfield 5 14 Not a Single Doubt
Caulfield 5 3 Pentastic

[DR RON]

Race 4

14 Tallons shown
9 shinzig
2 tirade
3 classiconi
7 niconero

Race 5
5 regal roller
1 elvstroem
15 danehill express
14 not a single doubt
13 savabeel

[zorro]

Race 4
7 11x1-Niconero (1) 3.70
3 57x3-Classiconi (9) 4.10
9 0x21-Shinzig (3) 6.20
2 0x67-Tirade (4) 10.70
1 100x-Econsul (NZ) (5) 15.00

Race 5
8 12x6-Lad of the Manor (NZ) (9) 3.40
14 4x71-Not a Single Doubt (14) 4.40
5 15x5-Regal Roller (6) 5.30
15 14x2-Danehill Express (2) 6.80
10 52x3-Pretorius (NZ) (11) 7.50

[Jimmy]

Wellington R.C. Stks.
9 Shinzig
8 Truly Wicked
3 Classiconi
5 Wildly
1 Econsul

C.F. Orr Stks.
14 Not A Single Doubt
8 Lad Of The Manor
5 Regal Roller
13 Savabeel
11 Makybe Diva

[Filante]

RACE 4

14. Talons Shown $5.0
7. Niconero $6.0
3. Classiconi $7.0
9. Shinzig $8.0
4. Zankel $10.0

RACE 5

15. Danehill Express $3.75
5. Regal Roller $4.4
14. Not A Single Doubt $5.3
1. Elvstroem $7.5
8. Lad Of The Manner $8.0

[La Mer]

Race 4:
Classiconi $4.40
Niconero $5.40
Talons Shown $5.40
Tirade $9.00
Truly Wicked $10.50

Race 5:
Regal Roller $3.80
Elvstroem $5.00
Casual Pass $6.50
Not A Single Doubt $9.00
Danehill Express $10.50

[Sportz]

R4
9 SHINZIG $2.70
3 CLASSICONI $9.50
14 TALONS SHOWN $11.10
7 NICONERO $11.10
15 ASTRODAME $13.40

R5
5 REGAL ROLLER $2.40
14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT $4.70
15 DANEHILL EXPRESS $7.20
1 ELVSTROEM $9.90
11 MAKYBE DIVA $9.90

Processor was equal 5th rater in R4 but I went with Astrodame. Bit unsure about that.

[Duritz]

Here are mine, they are to 80%

race 4 2.30
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $9.9 TIRADE
3 0.0 $9.9 CLASSICONI
8 0.2 $10.8 TRULY WICKED-NZ
15 0.4 $12.0 ASTRODAME
12 0.5 $12.1 BROMIDE

race 5 3.10
seln mgn price name
5 0.0 $2.4 REGAL ROLLER
13 2.6 $17.8 SAVABEEL
14 2.6 $17.9 NOT A SINGLE DOU
1 2.8 $22.1 ELVSTROEM
7 2.8 $23.7 CASUAL PASS


Good luck all.

[Top Rank]

Ratings Challenge


Wellington Stks

1. Econsul
2. Classiconi
3. Niconero
4. Truly Wicked
5. Astrodame

C.F Orr Stks

1. Not A Single Doubt
2. Regal Roller
3. Elvstroem
4. Savabeel
5. Danehill Express

Good Punting

[Sportz]

A slight change to my rankings for R4:

9 SHINZIG $2.70
3 CLASSICONI $9.50
7 NICONERO $11.10
14 TALONS SHOWN $11.10
15 ASTRODAME $13.40

[the mug]

r4

8- Truly wicked 3.20
14- Talons shown 3.20
3- classiconi 5.50
6- processor 12.0
9- shinzing 30.0 (unrealistic)


r5

11- makybe diva 3.00
1- elvstroem 5.80
5- regal roller 6.0
7- casual pass 9.0
8- lad of the manor 9.0

good day all!

[kiwi]

Race 4

3 Classiconi 3.oo
8 Truly Wicked 4.00
9 Shinzig 6.00
2 Tirade 7.50
5 Wildly 8.00

Race 5

8 Lad Of The Manor 3.00
5 Regal Roller 3.50
14 Not A Single Doubt 5.00
10 Pretorius 8.00
4 Mr. Murphy 11.00

[xptdriver]

Gday All

here are my ideas on the 2 races :

Race 4 2:30 PM Wellington RC Stakes Set Weight With Penalties 3yo
Listed Race Apprentices Cannot Claim

2 $5.0 Tirade
14 $6.7 Talons Shown
5 $9.0 Wildly
8 $9.0 Truly Wicked
3 $12.0 Classiconi

Race 5 3:10 PM CF Orr Stakes Weight For Age
Group 1 Apprentices Cannot Claim

8 $4.8 Lad Of The Manor
5 $6.3 Regal Roller
14 $6.3 Not A Single Doubt
1 $11.3 Elvstroem
10 $11.3 Pretorius

[Shaun]

I can't believe what has happend...this goes to show you really need to check calculations....i was adjusting my excel sheet and relised for the past 3 months that i had an error........when ever a horse beaten legths was over 10 the excel she was dropping the first digit....so a horse finisjing 10.5 lenghts was coming up at 0.5....now thats bad.

[Sportz]

Sorry Shaun, I know I shouldn't laugh at that, but it's funny. :)

Yep, you're right. It does show that you should check everything thoroughly.

[Sportz]

This week proved to be a bit tough.

ubetido (35 + 50) 85 pts
Top Rank (35 + 40) 75 pts
La Mer (30 + 37.5) 67.5 pts
Sportz (40 + 25) 65 pts
Filante (30 + 35) 65 pts
Dr Ron (20 + 45) 65 pts
zorro (40 + 12.5) 52.5 pts
Duritz (7.5 + 42.5) 50 pts
Heavyweight (32.5 + 15) 47.5 pts
The mug (5 + 42.5) 47.5 pts
QuickFunBet (5 + 40) 45 pts
xpt driver (7.5 + 32.5) 40 pts
Jimmy (10 + 17.5) 27.5 pts
Chrome Prince (20 + 7.5) 27.5 pts
kiwi (10 + 12.5) 22.5 pts

Overall standings:

Sportz 515 pts
Filante 482.5 pts
La Mer 480 pts
zorro 452.5 pts
Top Rank 447.5 pts
Duritz 402.5 pts
QuickFunBet 387.5 pts
Jimmy 382.5 pts
Heavyweight 377.5 pts
ubetido 365 pts
xpt driver 352.5 pts
Dr Ron 345 pts
The mug 317.5 pts
Chrome Prince 305 pts
Shaun 292.5 pts

[Chrome Prince]

Well done to the winners today and the overall leaders in the comp.

Perhaps some people might like to do a post mortem of why they did so well or poorly.

I'll take the lead here and I did poorly....

In the first leg Race 4 Niconero's best run was last start over 1200m at Caulfield in an Open class race. The horse was jumping 200m in distance and heaps of class, I didn't think it could go on to improve that much. Econsul had never done much first up so I left it unrated pretty much. I liked Tirade a lot going on the run in the Grp 3 Guineas Prelude over the same distance and track, but that was last preparation, and should he have lived up to that form should have brained 'em. Truly Wicked had won a Group 2 at MV and Classiconi had won a Listed Race at Flemington last prep. I think I need to look harder at recent form.

In the second leg, although it was spruiked that they had Elvstroem set for this race, trainers often spruik their own horses often to prove fruitless at the end of the day. I did miss looking at the beaten margins first up and looked at the placings. First up Elvis had run 0.4 lengths 3rd in the Bletchingly and 1.4 lengths 5th in the Zeditave. So the fifth was really equivalent to a second or third.

Some lessons to be learned.

[DR RON]

On the point of recent form I agree with you 100% chrome. Since the start of the challenge i have missed several winners that had high recent ratings that I ignored as flukes, aand then went back further to get a more realistic rating which cost me a couple of winners. I guess the if we learn by our mistakes then the challenge has proved useful.

[Sportz]

Well Chrome, I'm surprised (and a bit embarassed) that I'm leading this thing. You see, I've really only been using ratings on a consistent basis for over a month. What I do is so damn simple, but it seems to have been working pretty well so far. (Using my ratings, my best bet today was Miss Gloryhunter in the last in Brisbane)

I must admit that I use the ratings from both the Tas Tab website and the Unitab website to help me get my weight ratings. Considering the info on those two sites is totally free, you just can't beat them. Then I add a few bonuses or penalties regarding days since last start, jockeys, barriers and state of the track. For me, it's still a learning process though. There are a few things I have to look at to try to improve my ratings even further.

Concerning today's races, I had Savabeel down far too low and I've gone back and looked at the ratings and saw where I went wrong there. I definitely think I rated the other 3 year olds too high by comparison. On pure class, he should have been ahead of them, even first-up. As for the other race, quite happy to get the quinella in my 5 picks. Could possibly have had Wildly higher up given the state of the track.

As for recent form, I always use the horse's last run in my ratings (unless it's first-up or the rating for that run was WAY below average). I don't use just one race to find a base rating though. I use two and average them. Normally it's the horse's last start and the best rating from the previous two starts. So I don't usually go back further than a horse's last 3 runs, unless it is 1st-up, 2nd-up or racing over a totally different distance or track condition.

[Duritz]

Interesting post Sportz, thanks for that. Using LS and best of previous two at first glance seems flawed, but what it will do is throw up the types we should really be backing - the consistent ones.

We'll chat more about this soon.

Duritz.

[Shaun]

Well considering i have had a faulty spread sheet things are not to bad....my ratings are not really designed to handle 1st and 2nd ups i prefer a feww runs but anyways i re-rated yesterdays races to see how it turned out with the spread sheet fixed....i hope.

MR4
7 Niconero (1) $5.32
14 Talons Shown (12) $6.04
5 Wildly (2) $7.19
8 Truly Wicked (13) $9.54
3 Classiconi (9) $9.95

MR5
7 Casual Pass (3) $7.28
8 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (9) $7.42
15 Danehill Express (2) $7.64
10 Pretorius (NZ) (11) $8.32
14 Not a Single Doubt (14) $8.32

[ubetido]

Hi all

Sportz how do you find the ratings on the two tab sites. How do you interpret them. Do you look that they agree on both sites etc.

I dont look at form, past runs,days,weight, jockey etc. For example yesterday Makybe diva was high up in the ratings however one would know that at 1400m/caufield/first up that it would be less likely of a positive result.

When spreading over 5 selections light analysis can be forgiving. If i was to narrow it down to say top 2 then i would study the ratings a bit more indepth or use an external source for comparison. I would think.

I haven't used or viewed TAS TAB i have unitab.

cheers
ubetido

[Sportz]

Here's the Tas Tab form guide:
http://www.tastab.com.au/racebet/form_guides/platinum/default.asp
And here's the Unitab website:
http://www.tabonline.com.au/

On the Tas Tab form guide, click on a horse's name and it'll give you a complete form rundown for that horse including a rating for each run. The rating will be in the form of a number like 645 or 725 or something. To convert them to weight ratings, I simply slip a decimal point in there and make it 64.5 or 72.5. Technically speaking, doing that is probably not 100% accurate, but it's worked out okay for me. So, I get the two ratings I want and then average them out. In that instance, it would be 68.5.

Next, I add the horse's Unitab rating. These ratings are a score out of 100 on the right side of the screen beside each runner. Before using it in my ratings, I divide it by 2 though so it's a score out of 50 instead of out of 100. So, if the horse has a Unitab rtg of 93, I turn that into 46.5 and add that to the rating I have from the Tas Tab site. Then I add small bonuses and penalties depending on the days since last start, the jockey, the barrier and the state of the track. Once I've done that, I'll have a total from which I subtract the horse's handicap weight and what's left is the horse's rating for today's race.

[DR RON]

I think your treatment of the tassie tote ratings is pretty close to the mark sportz, on a quick comparison with the ozeform ratings, the average divisor between the two figures appears to be about 10.5 although it ranges from there up to 12 but I would not trust those ones as ozeform have made some errors in the past as pointed out on this forum previously.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's the Tas Tab form guide:
http://www.tastab.com.au/racebet/form_guides/platinum/default.asp
And here's the Unitab website:
http://www.tabonline.com.au/

On the Tas Tab form guide, click on a horse's name and it'll give you a complete form rundown for that horse including a rating for each run. The rating will be in the form of a number like 645 or 725 or something. To convert them to weight ratings, I simply slip a decimal point in there and make it 64.5 or 72.5. Technically speaking, doing that is probably not 100% accurate, but it's worked out okay for me. So, I get the two ratings I want and then average them out. In that instance, it would be 68.5.

Next, I add the horse's Unitab rating. These ratings are a score out of 100 on the right side of the screen beside each runner. Before using it in my ratings, I divide it by 2 though so it's a score out of 50 instead of out of 100. So, if the horse has a Unitab rtg of 93, I turn that into 46.5 and add that to the rating I have from the Tas Tab site. Then I add small bonuses and penalties depending on the days since last start, the jockey, the barrier and the state of the track. Once I've done that, I'll have a total from which I subtract the horse's handicap weight and what's left is the horse's rating for today's race.

I must say it's very generous of you Sportz to outline your method in such detail, especially when you're leading this competition.
I've actually looked at the Unitab ratings and think it's really a great starting point, but does need something extra.
I'm not looking at this from a ratings point of view, rather what I need is an accurate prediction of the market price to some degree at least.

I've looked at wa tab prepost and it is a very rough guide only.

Thanks again.

[ubetido]

Hi

Thanks for that explanation Sportz. Much appreciated.

ubetido

[Sportz]

Yeah, no worries.

Now that I've explained in great detail what I've been doing so far to be on top of the comp, I expect I'll probably plummet down the leaderboard and end up at the bottom in a screaming heap. :D

[Top Rank]

Thats usually the way it goes. Murphys Law is always nearby.

[Chrome Prince]

Actually Sportz, I'd like to email you if possible, I think I've come up with something that looks o.k. at this point using the Unitab ratings as a base rating only.

Applying my own points additions and deductions, I have come up with some that rate 101.

There have been 10 of them over the last two Saturday's returning 21 units.

Now admittedly this is early days, but if anyone has a spreadsheet of past meetings with the unitab ratings, then I'd know a bit better.

Anyhow, if you're interested drop me a line:

racestats at hotmail dot com

Also when it's finalised, I owe Kenny Victor a good system, haven't forgotten you mate ;)

[Chrome Prince]

Oh what the hell, may as well post it here for everyone, otherwise my email will be full!

Take Unitab rating.
If horse is first starter deduct 1 point.
If horse is first up, and has not won first up before, deduct 1 point.
If horse is first up, but has won first up before, ADD 1 point.
If horse is racing within 7 days of last start, ADD 1 point.

Miss Dansk -
Chieftilla -
Vanquished -
Arctic Park $3.00
Hero Mak $9.50
On Target $4.70
Gottatellya -
Serpent -
Omnitrader -
Miss Gloryhunter $3.80

[Sportz]

Chrome, can I ask where Miss Dansk, Chieftilla and Vanquished ran? I can't seem to find them.

Anyway, I don't mind backing 100 raters with form something like this:
Saturdays only
Last start exactly 7 days ago
At least 1200m
At least 2 starts from a spell
At least 3 career starts
Placed last start or have a c or a b in their form.

On Saturday, qualifiers were:
Doom R4-3 Omnitrader -
Doom R8-8 Miss Gloryhunter WON
Belm R3-8 Arctic Park WON
Belm R4-4 Hero Mak WON

And another one in relation to your first-up idea:
Saturdays only
First-up
At least 3 career starts
Won first-up before
Has a c or a d in it's form

Saturday's qualifiers:
Caul R7-15 Harley Ma -
Belm R7-8 On Target WON

[La Mer]

Can I ask where Miss Dansk, Chieftilla and Vanquished ran? I can't seem to find them.

Anyway Chrome, I've been following 100 raters with form something like that:
Saturdays only
last start exactly 7 days ago
at least 2 starts from a spell
at least 3 career starts
placed last start or have a c or a b in their form.

Just on the question of Unitab ratings. Does anyone know how they compare with the Techform ratings available on the SuperTab site?

[Sportz]

Oh, I just realised we probably should have put this stuff in the Betting Systems Forum. Sorry.

[Sportz]

Saturdays only
Last start exactly 7 days ago
At least 1200m
At least 2 starts from a spell
At least 3 career starts
Placed last start or have a c or a b in their form.

Saturdays only
First-up
At least 3 career starts
Won first-up before
Has a c or a d in it's form


You could perhaps use those ideas on other days too, but maybe you'd have to change the 'exactly 7 days ago' to 'no more than 7 days ago'. I would have got one from one with the first-up idea today and I think you would have got 2 from 2 Chrome.

[Sportz]

Chrome, can I ask where Miss Dansk, Chieftilla and Vanquished ran? I can't seem to find them.

Oh, never mind. Worked it out now. They were from the previous week I assume?

[Chrome Prince]

Just on the question of Unitab ratings. Does anyone know how they compare with the Techform ratings available on the SuperTab site?

Hi La Mer,

I was under the impression that they both use Techform ratings.

Of course, I could be wrong.

[Sportz]

No, I think Unitab's ratings are derived basically from a formula similar to the AAP neurals. One thing I've noticed is that a good part of the Unitab rating is based on the horse's best career run, not necessarily it's most recent run, so you sometimes get horses coming out on top in the ratings despite not being in great current form. Can lead to some good price wins though.

[Sportz]

Okay, I know there are two Group 1 races on this week, but they're both small fields and the top chances look fairly obvious. I'm sure most of us would be likely to come up with pretty much the same sort of ratings. So I reckon we should have a go at these two races instead this week:

WARWICK FARM R7-4.30 LIVERPOOL CITY CUP 1200 M ($100000) (GROUP 3)
1 FALKIRK (NZ) John O'Shea G Boss 9 57
2 OSCA WARRIOR Gwenda Markwell J Sheehan 2 56.5
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC John Hawkes 18 56
4 SPORTSMAN Gregory Hickman N Rawiller 19 55.5
5 BINDING John Hawkes 3 54
6 NIPS Clarry Conners J Innes 14 54
7 PATEZZA Guy Walter H Bowman 6 53.5
8 SAM SUNG A SONG Gerald Ryan S Seamer 8 53.5
9 MUSTARD George Crowley R Graham 13 53
10 ACADEME Guy Walter 1 52.5
11 UTZON Les Bridge R Stewart 11 52
12 BUSH HONEY Guy Walter 12 52
13 PRESENTLY Bruce McLachlan J Ford 4 52
14 AMEX Alan Bailey G Scimone 5 52
15 MR CELEBRITY (NZ) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 17 52
16 MAGIC MARVO Rod Craig 15 52
17 ATHELNOTH Tiger Holland M Bell (a) 7 52
18 BESAME MUCHO Bart Cummings 16 52
19E KID GEORGE Guy Walter 10 52

MORPHETTVILLE R7-4.30 FELTEX CARPETS TOKYO CITY CUP 1600 M ($75500) (GROUP 3)
1 ALMOST NEVER Leon Macdonald Ms C Lindop 5 57
2 SURE BET Mark Minervini P Gatt 9 54.5
3 RATHER GRAND Mick Price J Bowditch 12 54
4 FINNISS D'OR Pat Barns D Carney 11 54
5 GET UP Darryl Dodson Ms H McKechnie (a) 8 54
6 GRUNDY'S CROSSING Barbara Marshman P Mertens 1 54
7 PRAY IN VAIN Stuart Gower 10 54
8 MODERN ERA Brian Mayfield-Smith A Findlay 6 53.5
9 PURE VELOCITY Tony McEvoy A Spiteri 4 53
10 COINTREAU BALL Mark Kavanagh 3 53
11 RADIANT STAR Peter G Moody J Benbow (a) 7 53
12 SHANICITY (NZ) Greg Lesnikowski 2 53

Both of those races should provide a REAL test of our rating methods.

Good luck. :)

[Duritz]

Nice big fields!! Been a while since I've done form for good old crooked Adelaide.......

[Sportz]

Yep, they'll be a real test. Just getting the winner somewhere in our top 5 will be an effort.

[Chrome Prince]

Warwick Farm Race 7
Binding
Presently
Patezza
Utzon
Besame Mucho

Morphettville Race 7
Finniss D'or
Pure Velocity
Grundy's Crossing
Get Up
Almost Never

A real dinky die challenge

[xptdriver]

Gday All

Because I won't be around near a computer tomorrow, I have posted 7 runners to cover scratchings... ignore 6 and 7 if none of my selections are scratched

MORPHETTVILLE Race 7
FELTEX CARPETS TOKYO CITY CUP
1 $4.59 ALMOST NEVER
2 $6.12 SURE BET
3 $6.12 RATHER GRAND
5 $8.20 GET UP
4 $10.93 FINNISS D'OR
9 $10.93 PURE VELOCITY
6 $14.34 GRUNDY'S CROSSING

WARWICK FARM Race 7
LIVERPOOL CITY CUP
1 $5.31 FALKIRK
11 $5.31 UTZON
18 $7.08 BESAME MUCHO
5 $9.48 BINDING
7 $12.64 PATEZZA
8 $16.59 SAM SUNG A SONG
15 $16.59 MR CELEBRITY

[QuickFunBet]

Warwick Farm Race 7
5. Binding $6.00
11. Utzon $6.50
1. Falkirk $10.00
2. Osca Warrior $11.00
15. Mr Celebrity $13.00

Morphettville Race 7
2. Sure Bet $4.50
4. Finnis D'Or $7.00
8. Modern Era $9.00
6. Grundy's Crossing $9.50
1.Almost Never $11.00

Thanks,
QFB

[the mug]

Hey Sportz
Wont be online till tomorrow arvo, so have thrown in my top 6 in case of a scratching. Mind you for the sydney race i may require a top 17!!!

s7

18 Besame Mucho 2.70
11 Utzon 6.50
7 Patezza 10.0
13 Presently 10.0
15 Mr Celebrity 10.0
9 Mustard 15.0

a7

8 Modern Era 4.30
6 Grundys Crossing 4.30
3 Rather grand 6.50
9 Pure Velocity 8.60
4 Finniss Dor 15.0
2 sure bet 16.0

cheers n good luck

[kiwi]

WF

18. $4.60

8. $ 5.50

4 $ 7.00

7 $ 9.00

11 $ 11.00


Morph

8 $ 3.20

7 $ 3.50

3 $ 6.50

1 $ 9.00

2 $ 11.00

[zorro]

SR7
7 Patezza 3.50
11 Utzon 3.90
1 Falkirk 6.20
18 Besame Mucho 10.70
15 Mr Celebrity 12.50

AR7
1 Almost Never 2.70
3 Rather Grand 4.40
2 Sure Bet 7.50
9 Pure Velocity 7.50
4 Finniss D'Or 9.30

[Duritz]

Here's mine, to 80%. The WF race very eve, wouldn't be rushing to take shorts anything

MPH 7 4.30
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $6.4 GRUNDYS CROSSING
8 0.5 $7.9 MODERN ERA
3 0.7 $9.0 RATHER GRAND
1 0.7 $9.6 ALMOST NEVER
5 1.4 $14.6 GET UP


WF 7 4.30
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $8.6 FALKIRK-NZ
18 0.2 $9.4 BESAME MUCHO
10 0.9 $14.5 ACADEME
11 1.0 $15.3 UTZON
7 1.0 $15.3 PATEZZA

Good luck all

[Jimmy]

Slipping further down the ladder

S7
11 Utzon
5 Binding
7 Patezza
1 Falkirk
18 Besame Mucho

A7
3 Rather Grand
1 Almost Never
4 Finniss D'Or
9 Pure Velocity
8 Modern Era

[La Mer]

Warwick Farm: Race 7
Falkirk $4.20
Toulouse Lautrec $5.20
Utzon $6.50
Besame Mucho $8.50
Binding $10.00

Morphettville: Race 7
Almost Never $3.90
Rather Grand $5.20
Grundy's Crossing $7.00
Modern Era $9.00
Finniss D'Or $10.50

[ubetido]

MORPHETTVILLE RACE 7

1 ALMOST NEVER 3.7
3 RATHER GRAND 6.1
6 GRUNDYS CROSSING 6.3
8 MODERN ERA 10.5
4 FINISS D'OR 12.1

WARWICK FARM RACE 7
5 BINDING 2.4
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC 5.0
1 FALKIRK 8.2
11 UTZON 14.8
18 BESAME MUCHO 15.1

[Sportz]

I had to drop one horse from each race that was equal 5th rated - Presently and Modern Era. I'll probably regret that.

W.FRM R7
18 BESAME MUCHO $3.50
7 PATEZZA $4.10
1 FALKIRK $10.50
5 BINDING $10.50
11 UTZON $10.50

MORP R7
3 RATHER GRAND $5.70
9 PURE VELOCITY $6.70
4 FINNISS D'OR $6.70
1 ALMOST NEVER $8.10
6 GRUNDY'S CROSSING $8.10

[Top Rank]

It appears that for the scoring of this comp. the prices are not needed, so I haven't. If it is differnet let me know.Liverpool City Cup
1. Falkirk
2. Binding
3. Patezza
4. Utzon
5. Mr Celebrity

Tokyo City Cup
1. Rather Grand
2. Grundys Crossing
3. Almost Never
4. Finnis D'Or
5. Get Up

Good Punting

[Sportz]

No, prices aren't really needed. We just use them as a comparison. As long as you rate 5 horses in order, that's what matters.

[Heavyweight]

SR7

11. Utzon $2.60
1. Falkirk $4.50
5. Binding $6.00
3. Toulouse Lautrec $15.00
7. Patezza $16.00

AR7

1. Almost Never $2.50
3. Rather Grand $4.25
4. Finniss d'Or $13.00
8. Modern Era $13.00
9. Pure Velocity $15.00

Cheers,
H.

[DR RON]

Sydney race 7

11 Utzon
1 Falkirk
5 Binding
18 Besame Mucho
7 Patezza

Adelaide race 7

3 Rather Grand
1 Almost Never
4 Finnis D'or
6 Grundys Crossing
8 Modern Era

wont worry about prices as i cant seem to get them to accurate. Currently working on a new pricing strategy. The sydney race is particulary tough to predict, nice choice sportz.

[Sportz]

wont worry about prices as i cant seem to get them to accurate. Currently working on a new pricing strategy.

Yeah, I'm going to make a bit of a change to my pricing method. The one I'm using favours the top rated horses just a touch too much. I'll post my new method on here for you to have a look at.

[Heavyweight]

Almost Never is out!

Can I bump Grundy's Crossing up into 5th?
3. Rather Grand
4. Finniss D'Or
8. Modern Era
9. Pure Velocity
6. Grundy's Crossing

Cheers,

H.

[QuickFunBet]

Warwick Farm Race 7
5. Binding $6.00
11. Utzon $6.50
1. Falkirk $10.00
2. Osca Warrior $11.00
15. Mr Celebrity $13.00

Morphettville Race 7
2. Sure Bet $4.50
4. Finnis D'Or $7.00
8. Modern Era $9.00
6. Grundy's Crossing $9.50
1.Almost Never $11.00

Thanks,
QFB

With the scratching of Almost Never, now No 10 Cointreau Ball becomes my fifth pick.

[Sportz]

Yes, with the scratching, my top 5 for Adelaide is:

MORP R7
3 RATHER GRAND $5.70
9 PURE VELOCITY $6.70
4 FINNISS D'OR $6.70
6 GRUNDY'S CROSSING $8.10
8 MODERN ERA $8.10

[Sportz]

I knew Sam Sung A Song would win if I left him out. I've been following him for ages, but this is a 'ratings' challenge, and on the ratings I did, he was only about 8th.

Well done to Kiwi. I think he was the only one to have him in his top 5.

[DR RON]

Sportz, move my 3 4 and 5 selections up 1 place and put 2 Sure bet in for fith thanks

[Jimmy]

Sportz,

add Sure Bet in 5th place for late scratching

Cheers

[Sportz]

Good move.

Personally, my ratings have had a shocker today. Back to Earth with a thud!!! :(

[Sportz]

This week:

zorro (7.5 + 67.5) 75 pts
xpt driver (15 + 57.5) 72.5 pts
Jimmy (12.5 + 57.5) 70 pts
kiwi (37.5 + 32.5) 70 pts
QuickFunBet (12.5 + 40) 52.5 pts
Dr Ron (15 + 27.5) 42.5 pts
Sportz (15 + 22.5) 37.5 pts
Heavyweight (15 + 17.5) 32.5 pts
Duritz (15 + 12.5) 27.5 pts
Top Rank (17.5 + 7.5) 25 pts
The mug (7.5 + 17.5) 25 pts
La Mer (10 + 12.5) 22.5 pts
ubetido (7.5 + 12.5) 20 pts
Chrome Prince (7.5 + 10) 17.5 pts


Overall:

Sportz 552.5 pts
zorro 527.5 pts
La Mer 502.5 pts
Filante 482.5 pts
Top Rank 472.5 pts
Jimmy 452.5 pts
QuickFunBet 440 pts
Duritz 430 pts
xpt driver 425 pts
Heavyweight 410 pts
Dr Ron 387.5 pts
ubetido 385 pts
The mug 342.5 pts
Chrome Prince 322.5 pts
Shaun 292.5 pts
system 137.5 pts
kiwi 92.5 pts

[Chrome Prince]

Well done guys!

Zorro, you're doing very well consisently.
Sportz, very nice to be at the top....let me know what it's like :(

Despite bringing up the rear of the field, I think this is one of the best, entertaining and challenging comps we've had here - it really makes one think about the chances in a race and learn a bit as well, without having to bet.

Thanks Sportz.

[Sportz]

Keep at it Chrome. I'm sure one of these days, you'll clean up and pick the first 4 in order or something. :)

[zorro]

Thanks Chrome - now I have to do is have enough faith to back all of my selections. I didn't even THINK about putting a trifecta on the Adelaide race - even though I tipped it in two of these comp's. DUMB!!!

[Duritz]

Well, I was away yesterday, at a wedding. I got to the pub (in between the wedding and the reception, which was conveniently next to the pub) just before Adelaide race 7. I then realised the topweight was scratched. I checked my ratings, and of course this is how they were. The top 8 here for all.

MPH 7 4.30
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $6.4 GRUNDYS CROSSING
8 0.5 $7.9 MODERN ERA
3 0.7 $9.0 RATHER GRAND
1 0.7 $9.6 ALMOST NEVER
5 1.4 $14.6 GET UP
2 1.6 $17.5 SURE BET
4 1.7 $18.1 FINNISS DOR
9 1.8 $20.3 PURE VELOCITY



Naturally, the winner was the next pick, would've gone up the order had I known etc. I guess this is a lesson - if not near a computer, post more than 5 picks.

Sportz I'm with you on Sam Sung a Song in Sydney (say that five times quickly) - I had HIM sixth pick too, rated $15.40 80% odds. The 5th pick was rated $15.30.

This is not my comp I am afraid.........

Duritz.

[Sportz]

Bad luck. Yeah, if you're not going to be near a computer on the Saturday, it's advisable to add an extra horse, just in case of scratchings.

[Sportz]

This week's races are:

CAULFIELD R6-3.30 OAKLEIGH PLATE 1100 M ($352000) (GROUP 1)
1 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry G Boss 6 57
2 TAIKUN Bart Cummings S W Arnold 9 55.5
3 LILANDO Andrew Noblet D Nikolic 8 54.5
4 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins G Childs 1 53
5 LEGALLY BAY John Hawkes D Gauci 3 52.5
6 STRIKELINE Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 4 52.5
7 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 5 52.5
8 ALIZES (NZ) Tony McEvoy S Seamer 10 52.5
9 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien B Shinn (a) 2 52.5
10 SEGMENTS Peter G Moody L Nolen 7 52.5

CANTERBURY R7-10.00 CANTERBURY CUP 1900 M ($101200) (GROUP 3)
1 ANOTHER WARRIOR Alan Bailey G Colless 4 58.5
2 DON RAPHAEL Kerry Parker G Boss 12 56
3 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 9 55
4 SATURDAY FEVER Tony McEvoy H Bowman 5 53.5
5 MAHTOUM Kim Moore J Ford 2 53
6 MOORING'S MELODY Bob Thomsen D Beadman 16 53
7 LEG IRONS Alicia Willick R McLeod 11 52.5
8 GRANDLY David Payne J Cassidy 7 52
9 RED HOT PEPPER David Payne 14 52
10 BEALE STREET Joseph Pride S Pollard 13 52
11 CAUGHT COURTING (NZ) Guy Walter D Beasley 1 52
12 SERPENTINE Robert Murrell Dale Spriggs 17 52
13 NKUNI David Payne 3 52
14 LUTALO (NZ) John O'Shea C Brown 15 52
15E MY CHINESE KING Gregory Hickman 10 52
16E LINDY'S GROOM (NZ) Ron Quinton M Bell (a) 6 52
17E CASITA (NZ) Graeme Rogerson R Stewart 8 52

[Chrome Prince]

Guess I'll be the first.

I reckon you guys are waiting for me to post so you know what not to include ;)

Including 7 horses in case of scratchings, just take the first 5 starters in order.

CAULFIELD R6-3.30 OAKLEIGH PLATE 1100 M ($352000) (GROUP 1)
8 Alizes
2 Taikun
4 Don't Tell Tom
1 Fastnet Rock
3 Lilando
6 Strikeline
7 Foreplay

CANTERBURY R7-10.00 CANTERBURY CUP 1900 M ($101200) (GROUP 3)
12 Serpentine
9 Red Hot Pepper
8 Grandly
5 Mahtoum
14 Lutalo
3 Winning Belle
6 Mooring's Melody

[Duritz]

Yes here are my top 8 also, so as not to miss a winner due to late scratchings like last week here are my top 8. I would post more but I only set the program up to rank them to top 8 and I couldn't be stuffed changing it!

CAU 6 3.30
seln mgn price
1 0.0 $7.0 FASTNET ROCK-NZ
2 0.1 $7.1 TAIKUN-NZ
7 0.4 $7.6 FOREPLAY
6 0.9 $8.6 STRIKELINE
8 2.5 $13.8 ALIZES
9 4.0 $28.1 DANBIRD
3 4.7 $39.6 LILANDO
4 5.0 $43.0 DONT TELL TOM

and of course


CBZ 7 10.00
seln mgn price
7 0.0 $5.5 LEG IRONS
12 0.0 $5.6 SERPENTINE
9 3.3 $15.6 RED HOT PEPPER
8 3.4 $16.2 GRANDLY
3 4.2 $24.2 WINNING BELLE
5 4.7 $31.2 MAHTOUM
14 4.7 $31.9 LUTALO
1 4.7 $31.9 ANOTHER WARRIOR

Though I must warn my millions of fans out there - I couldn't be bothered doing the form for that Canterbury race so I cheated and just took my computer's tips...... Go the computer!

[DR RON]

Caufield race 6

2 Taikun
1 Fastnet Rock
3 Lilando
4 Dont tell Tom
7Foreplay
8 Alizes
9 Danbird

Canterbury race 7

3 Winning belle
7 Leg irons
9 Red hot pepper
2 Don raphael
5 Mahtoum
8 Grandly
6 Moorings melody

Just take out any scratchings thanks Sportz,

[Sportz]

Red Hot Pepper and Nkuni are early scratchings from the Cup.

[the mug]

Caulfield r6
2-Taikun 3.50
6-Strikeline 4.00
3-Lilando 5.50
7-Foreplay 9.00
8-Alizes 17.00

..no fastnet rock!??????


Canterbury r7
3- Winning Belle 4.00
12-Serpentine 6.00
7- Leg Irons 8.50
8- Grandly 8.50
4- Saturday Fever 10.0


all the best everyone

[Duritz]

Bring it home the mug! You can still win!! Forget what they say! Rocky won! So can you!!!! ADRIAN!! ADRIAAAAANNNNN!!!!!!!!!!

[Top Rank]

Just as a general question and not having a dig at anyone. If you are doing ratings with any degree of certainty can anyone explain a system that would not have either Fastnet Rock in the Oakleigh Plate or Winning Belle in the Canterbury Cup at least in their top 2.


I realise so very well that racing is a game of opposing opinions but to me these two "neddies" I would have thought would be right at the top of anybody's ratings, no matter what method you use.

Of course I could be setting myself up for a big slice of humble pie but I just don't understand it.

Good Punting

[Sportz]

CAULFIELD
1 FASTNET ROCK (74.0) $3.40
2 TAIKUN (73.0) $4.30
3 LILANDO (71.5) $6.00
7 FOREPLAY (68.5) $12.20
6 STRIKELINE (68.0) $14.30
----------------------------
8 ALIZES (67.0) $19.00

CANTERBURY
3 WINNING BELLE (68.0) $2.00
5 MAHTOUM (61.5) $9.50
6 MOORING'S MELODY (60.5) $12.50
14 LUTALO (59.5) $16.70
12 SERPENTINE (58.0) $25.00
----------------------------
4 SATURDAY FEVER (58.0) $25.00

[the mug]

Duritz...
Your a funny man...I think ADRIAAANN is the only word one has deciphered in the whole of the rocky balboa script...The rest is just a blubbering of words overlapping each other..
For me to win as Ivan Drago said .." I MUST BREAK YOU"....haha

Top Rank..
My explanation for what its worth. You will notice i dont have fastnet rock at all in the top five. For me i found this ratings challenge more of an oppurtunity to experiment a different method, as i dont really use a weight rating method to make my betting selections. so i thought i would try and use the wizard to see how they fair. Just like every other rating methods, i believe they will throw up a discrepency now and then.
But i agree that fastnet rock will most likely start favourite..

An attempt to explain from a small time novice player.

[Chrome Prince]

Just as a general question and not having a dig at anyone. If you are doing ratings with any degree of certainty can anyone explain a system that would not have either Fastnet Rock in the Oakleigh Plate or Winning Belle in the Canterbury Cup at least in their top 2.


Hi Top Rank,

I didn't have them in my top two for one reason only....

There are obvious chances which every man and his dog (or cat) will tip, then there's the overlooked horses capable of winning.

Alizes won first up last time carrying 58kg by 4 lengths.
Taikun by 1.3 lengths carrying 56.5

They'd both have to have a serious chance in this.

[QuickFunBet]

Caulfield Race 6
2. Taikun
3. Lilando
1. Fastnet Rock
4. Don't Tell Tom
8. Alizes
6. Strikeline (Res.)

Canterbury Race 7
3. Winning Belle
2. Don Raphael
6. Mooring's Melody
5. Mahtoum
14. Lutalo
4. Saturday Fever (Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

[QuickFunBet]

Whoops! Make that Feb 26, not Jan!

I feel better now.

Cheers,
QFB

[Top Rank]

Thanks for the reply Chrome.

Are you saying that you are tipping with the hope that you get a winner that the rest of the crowd will not get. You are not actually saying that The Rock or The Belle are not excellent chances with you.

I just thought we were tipping with what we really think about the race.

Good Punting

[zorro]

MR6
1 11x1-Fastnet Rock (6) 2.50
7 1321-Foreplay (5) 6.20
3 14x5-Lilando (8) 6.80
4 111x-Don't Tell Tom (1) 9.30
2 140x-Taikun (9) 10.70

SR7
3 Winning Belle 2.50
5 Mahtoum 5.00
8 Grandly 6.80
14 Lutalo 10.70
6 Mooring's Melody 12.50
7 Leg Irons (reserve)

[xptdriver]

Gday All

Sportz. I will be workin so I have thrown an xtra in In Syd... just mark em in order

Race 6 3:30 PM Oakleigh Plate. Handicap
Group 1 Apprentices Cannot Claim.
1 Fastnet Rock $3.91
7 Foreplay $5.21
3 Lilando $6.98
6 Strikeline $9.31
9 Danbird $12.22


Race 7 10:00 PM De Bortoli - Canterbury Cup. Handicap
Group 3 Apprentices Cannot Claim.
3 Winning Belle $3.63
14 Lutalo $6.48
12 Serpentine $11.34
7 Leg Irons $11.34
4 Saturday Fever $15.13
1 Another Warrior $15.13

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks for the reply Chrome.

Are you saying that you are tipping with the hope that you get a winner that the rest of the crowd will not get. You are not actually saying that The Rock or The Belle are not excellent chances with you.

I just thought we were tipping with what we really think about the race.

Good Punting

They are excellent chances, and this is a ratings comp, not a tipping comp. I realise.

Just to demonstrate, here are the ratings I have.

12 Serpentine 58
9 Red Hot Pepper 56
8 Grandly 56
5 Mahtoum 55
14 Lutalo 54
3 Winning Belle 54
6 Mooring's Melody 53

AND

8 Alizes 64
2 Taikun 58
4 Don't Tell Tom 56
1 Fastnet Rock 55
3 Lilando 55
6 Strikeline 54
7 Foreplay 53

I'm not doing that well, so I've experimented with a different method

Best of luck today.

[La Mer]

CAULFIELD R6-3.30 OAKLEIGH PLATE 1100 M ($352000) (GROUP 1)

CANTERBURY R7-10.00 CANTERBURY CUP 1900 M ($101200) (GROUP 3)


Caulfield Race 6:
Fastnet Rock $2.30
Foreplay $6.50
Lilando $8.50
Taikun $11.50
Strikeline $15.50
Alizes $20.00

Canterbury Race 7:
Winning Belle $3.50
Mahtoum $6.00
Another Warrior $8.50
Mooring's Melody $8.50
Don Raphael $11.00
Saturday Fever $15.80

[Jimmy]

Oakleigh Plate.
1 Fastnet Rock
3 Lilando
6 Strikeline
7 Foreplay
8 Alizes
Res 5 Legally Bay

De Bortoli - Canterbury Cup.
3 Winning Belle
5 Mahtoum
7 Leg Irons
4 Saturday Fever
2 Don Raphael
Res 12 Serpentine

[Heavyweight]

Oakleigh Plate

1. Fastnet Rock $2.25
7. Foreplay $3.75
3. Lilando $7.50
6. Strikeline $8.50
8. Alizes $51

Then 9,2,4

Canterbury Cup

3. Winning Belle $3.00
5. Mahtoum $6.50
8. Grandly $8.50
6. Mooring's Melody $10
2. Don Raphael $12

Then 12,4,14

Cheers,
H.

[ubetido]

CAUFIELD RACE 6

8 ALIZES 3.1
1 FASTNET ROCK 4.9
2 TALKUIN 6.7
7 FOREPLAY 8.2
3 LILANDO 10.9


CANTERBURY RACE 7

3 WINNING BELLE 2.9
2 DON RAPAHEL 3.5
5 MAHTOUM 15.1
8 GRANDLY 15.3
1 ANOTHER WARRIOR 16.3

[kiwi]

Oakleigh Plate.

6
Strikeline $3

7
Foreplay $3.50

3
Lilando $3.75

1
Fastnet Rock $4.25

9
Danbird $8.75



Canterbury Cup

3
Winning Belle $2.25

1
Another Warrior $2.75

11
Caught Courting $3.75

2

Don Raphael $5.00

13

Nkuni $10.50

[Top Rank]

Good Luck to all today, I expect the winners to be well found today.


Oakleigh Plate

1. Fastnet Rock
2. Foreplay
3. Alizes
4. Taikun
5. Lilando

Canterbury Cup

1. Winning Belle
2. Don Raphael
3. Saturday Fever
4. Mahtoum
5. Moorings Melody

[Sportz]

SEGMENTS?????? :o

I had it rated last at $114 on my ratings. Well, I guess it was technically a good overlay seeing as it started at $239 on Unitab.

[Sportz]

This week:

Top Rank (42.5 + 75) 117.5
Jimmy (42.5 + 70) 112.5
Sportz (42.5 + 62.5) 105
zorro (42.5 + 62.5) 105
La Mer (42.5 + 60) 102.5
Heavyweight (42.5 + 60) 102.5
ubetido (37.5 + 50) 87.5
xpt driver (42.5 + 42.5) 85
QuickFunBet (30 + 52.5) 82.5
Dr Ron (37.5 + 45) 82.5
Duritz (35 + 30) 65
kiwi (27.5 + 35) 62.5
The mug (7.5 + 40) 47.5
Chrome Prince (25 + 7.5) 32.5


Overall:

Sportz 657.5
zorro 632.5
La Mer 605
Top Rank 590
Jimmy 565
QuickFunBet 522.5
Heavyweight 512.5
xpt driver 510
Duritz 495
Filante 482.5
ubetido 472.5
Dr Ron 470
The mug 390
Chrome Prince 355
Shaun 292.5
kiwi 155

[Duritz]

Sportz you continue to flog us all.....

I am going to make a charge now. Watch, all, I am posied to pounce!!!!

March will be the month of Duritz!!!!!

[Sportz]

Sportz you continue to flog us all.....


Hmmm, don't know about that.

Anyway, I could possibly have been further in front. I should have had the first 5 home in Winning Belle's race on Saturday, but I let my personal opinion influence my ratings. As a result I had Saturday Fever rated 6th instead of in the top 5 as it really should have been. There's a lesson there. Don't let personal opinion influence the way you rate a race.

[zorro]

Sportz you continue to flog us all.....

I am going to make a charge now. Watch, all, I am posied to pounce!!!!



Hey Duritz "posied to pounce" - sounds a bit poofy to me!

[Sportz]

This week's races:

CAULFIELD R5-3.15 CARLTON DRAUGHT CARLYON CUP 1600 M
($151000) Quality (GROUP 3)

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 17 60
2 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 11 56
3 RIZON Cliff Brown S W Arnold 15 54.5
4 HOMEWRECKER (NZ) Ray Lawson M Pegus 16 53.5
5 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing D Oliver 8 53.5
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM Lee Freedman 9 52
7 BRIDIE BELLE (NZ) Chris Wood 18 52
8 NIAGARA FALLS Peter G Moody Steven King 5 52
9 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith N Ryan (a) 12 52
10 SURE BET Mark Minervini Dale Smith 3 52
11 LIGHTNING COMMAND Brian Mayfield-Smith J Benbow (a) 4 52
12 SPEEDY KING Graham Woolston B Shinn (a) 2 52
13 UMBER Kelvin Smith W J Hokai 6 52
14 REQUISITE (NZ) Michael Moroney G Childs 14 52
15 AIR COOLED (NZ) Jamie Edwards S Baster 7 52
16E GRUNDY'S CROSSING Barbara Marshman P Mertens 13 52
17E LANDSDOWN HOUSE (NZ) John Hawkes D Gauci 10 52
18E CAVEAT EMPTOR Shane Nichols A Findlay 1 52

ROSEHILL R7-4.15 COOLMORE CLASSIC 1500 M
($605475) F&M Quality (GROUP 1)

1 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (NZ) Grahame Begg N Rawiller 9 57.5
2 UNEARTHLY (NZ) David Payne J Cassidy 3 55
3 INFINITE GRACE John Symons J Byrne 8 54.5
4 LOTTERIA Gai Waterhouse C Munce 10 54.5
5 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle G Boss 11 54
6 TIMBOURINA Tony Wildman B Pengelly 16 54
7 BESAME MUCHO Bart Cummings M A Cahill 13 53.5
8 FORUM FLOOZIE (NZ) John Hawkes C Brown 4 53.5
9 HEC OF A PARTY Gai Waterhouse H Bowman 19 53.5
10 DANNI MARTINE Guy Walter D Beadman 20 53
11 BUSH HONEY Guy Walter R M Quinn 7 52.5
12 GOLDEN WEEKEND Paul Cave J Innes 5 52
13 TREZEVANT Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 14 52
14 JOHAN'S TOY Guy Walter D Beasley 12 52
15 IMANA Guy Walter J Ford 6 52
16 CHATELAINE Peter G Moody J Benbow (a) 17 52
17E PENTELIKON Kevin Moses R McLeod 1 52
18E NEVER SAD Ruth Cooper P Ferris 18 52
19E TUI SONG (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 15 52
20E PEKALAN Albert Stapleford M A Cahill 2 52

BIG fields, but a few of them are emergencies. Will be a real test. The Coolmore is notoriously tough to work out. Will be a great effort to rate that one correctly.

If possible name your top 5 and then a couple of reserves in case of scratchings.

Good luck. :)

[DR RON]

Is this now the longest thread in forum history

[Chrome Prince]

CAULFIELD R5-3.15 CARLTON DRAUGHT CARLYON CUP 1600 M
($151000) Quality (GROUP 3)
2 2x63 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (11) $4.31
1 00x0 Mummify (17) $6.49
6 x221 Beautiful Gem (9) $8.62
13 5x22 Umber (6) $9.46
15 1332 Air Cooled (NZ) (7) $11.74
10 5131 Sure Bet (3) $19.74
5 5835 Roman Arch (8) $23.08
ROSEHILL R7-4.15 COOLMORE CLASSIC 1500 M
($605475) F&M Quality (GROUP 1)
5 x122 Hollow Bullet (11) $4.81
4 11x1 Lotteria (10) $6.81
1 x244 Our Egyptian Raine (NZ) (9) $8.08
14 5x33 Johan's Toy (12) $11.22
3 7x03 Infinite Grace (8) $11.47
10 x541 Danni Martine (20) $20.00
13 3x15 Trezevant (14) $20.26

[Duritz]

Lotteria is the most impressive WFA mare I've seen since Sunline.

[Sportz]

Is this now the longest thread in forum history

Not sure, but I think we'll take this challenge through to the end of the Autumn Carnival. Then we'll decide if we want to continue or do something a little bit different.

[Chrome Prince]

Interesting that the prepost on Mummify is around 20/1.

Perhaps that series of duckeggs will put punters off.
Was only beaten 2.3L in The Orr and the extra 200m and being fitter should give a place hope.

[Duritz]

I don't have anything to say, just thought I'd make the thread a little longer again.






























Blah blah blah.

[DR RON]

Mummify around 9.00 prepost this afternoon.

CaulfieldRace 5

2 Lord of the manor
8 Niagara falls
1 Mummify
5 Roman arch
6 Beautiful gem
10 Sure bet
12 Speedy king

Rosehill race 7

4 Lotteria
1 Our egyptian raine
5 Hollow bullet
14 Johans toy
10 Danni Martine
9 Hec of a party
3 Infinite grace

[Top Rank]

Duritz,

Interesting call considering she has never started at WFA and has only run against her own age.

But she is very good and is the one to beat tomorrow.

[Sportz]

..... and she's not a mare yet. :)

[maverick1993]

Hey sportz !!
are you putting up this weekends races ??

[Sportz]

Already done that. Caul R5 and Rose R7. :)

[maverick1993]

oh i mean on the forum...i dont think Paddys around....heaps of good races to discuss :)

[Sportz]

Okay.

[maverick1993]

thanks dude.....what would we do without you,,

[Sportz]

Probably have a lot more room on the forum.

[QuickFunBet]

Caulfield Race 5
14. Requisite
2. Lad Of The manor
9. Pretorius
6. Beautiful Gem
8. Niagara Falls
10. Sure Bet (1st Res.)
13. Umber (2nd Res.)

Rosehill Race 7
4. Lotteria
10. Danni Martine
1. Our Egyptian Raine
5. Hollow Bullet
3. Infinite Grace
15. Imana (1st Res.)
9. Hec Of A Party (2nd Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

[Duritz]

LOL yes sorry for my presumptions.

Presumption 1 - Yes she is not yet a mare, hopefully nothing but time stands in her way in that regard. I just watch her and don't think of her as a 3YOF, there are NO 3yoF I have seen that good.

Presumption 2 - That she hasn't raced at WFA. But a formality. She is a WFA mare in the making, it doesn't matter that she's yet to compete at WFA, b/c before Fastnet Rock had raced against open age I was telling friends he's the best sprinter in the country. Sunline was a top WFA mare prior to racing at WFA. Lotteria is the same. (Technically, she has raced WFA, by racing set weights against her own age, but I know that's not the same so I won't claim that).

If she loses tomorrow (without acts of God intervening) I'll be very interested to figure out why. Mind you, I am only marking her about $4 on an 80% value market, but I'm being conservative.

Also BTW if they beat Grand Armee I'll run down Flinders St naked.

[the mug]

i have tweaked methods a tad...hopefully for the better

Caulfield Race 5
2 Lad of the Manor 4.10
6 Beautiful Gem 4.10
14 Requisite 7.15
1 Mummify 12.3
5 Roman Arch 12.3

Rosehill Race 7
4 Lotteria 3.95
1 Our Egyptian Raine 5.90
5 Hollow Bullet 6.90
13 Trezevant 11.80
10 Danni Martine 16.00

Good luck all.

p.s. Duritz...i hope grand armee wins for your sake, cos flinders st spans a fair length, its raining in melbourne and it will be be very very cold...hahaha

[zorro]

MR5
2 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (11) 2.50
1 Mummify (17) 7.50
12 Speedy King (2) 9.30
9 Pretorius (NZ) (12) 9.30
5 Roman Arch (8) 10.70

SR7
4 Lotteria 2.60
1 Our Egyptian Raine 4.10
5 Hollow Bullet 7.50
3 Infinite Grace 10.70
14 Johan's Toy 15.00

[Duritz]

CAU 5 3.15
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.5 LAD OF THE MANOR
8 1.2 $8.9 NIAGARA FALLS-NZ
9 1.2 $9.0 PRETORIUS
12 1.3 $9.2 SPEEDY KING
6 1.9 $16.2 BEAUTIFUL GEM
1 2.3 $22.9 MUMMIFY
5 2.7 $37.1 ROMAN ARCH
10 2.7 $37.3 SURE BET

ROS 7 4.15
seln mgn price name
4 0.0 $4.2 LOTTERIA
7 1.6 $11.6 BESAME MUCHO
3 1.8 $12.7 INFINITE GRACE
1 1.8 $13.6 OUR EGYPTIAN RAI
5 1.9 $14.4 HOLLOW BULLET
9 2.0 $16.9 HEC OF A PARTY
15 2.4 $24.8 IMANA
16 2.4 $25.2 CHATELAINE


Go the month of Duritz!!

[Filante]

Standouts in each of these races. Unbeaten Lotteria was showed impressive acceleration to emerge from the pack and swamp the leaders first up over 1400m. Being by Redoute's Choice, she will improve as she steps up in distance and even in a very strong field today, she's clearly the pick. Multiple Group winner Our Egyptian Raine, VRC Oaks winner Hollow Bullet and the high class sprinters Besame Mucho and Infinite Grace should battle out the placings.

I have them

4. Lotteria $2.2
1. Our Egyptian Raine $8
5. Hollow Bullet $8
7. Besame Mucho $10
3. Infinite Grace $10

In the Melbourne race Lad of the Manner picks himself: 3rd up, improver, high strike rate, likes the track, loves the distance...even if it rains he should win.

I have them

2. Lad of the Manor $2.7
6. Beautiful Gem $6
5. Roman Arch $10
12. Speedy King $10
13. Umber $10

[La Mer]

Caulfield Race 5
Lad of the Manor $4.50
Beautiful Gem $5.50
Sure Bet $7.00
Requisite $9.00
Umber $12.00
Air Cooled $14.00

Rosehill Race 7
Lotteria $3.90
Hollow Bullet $5.20
Our Egyptian Raine $6.80
Danni Martine $9.00
Infinite Grace $12.50
Johan's Toy $16.50

[Heavyweight]

MR5

2. Lad of the Manor $2.65
1. Mummify $4.50
6. Beautiful Gem $4.75
14. Requisite $17.00
10. Sure Bet $41.00
5. Roman Arch $51.00

SR7

4. Lotteria $1.40 (!)
5. Hollow Bullet $10.00
13. Trezevant $21.00
10. Danni Martine $41.00
9. Hec of a Party $41.00
1. Our Egyptian Raine $51.00

Cheers,

H.

[Top Rank]

Coolmore Classic

1. Lotteria
2. Hollow Bullet
3. Our Egyptian Raine
4. Johan's Toy
5. Trezevant


Carlyon Cup

1. Lad of the Manor
2. Beautiful Gem
3. Requisite
4. Umber
5. Pretorius

Filante, nice summation of your horses chances. Well done, good solid reasoning.

Good Punting.

[kiwi]

1 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE $3.25
4 LOTTERIA $3.50
5 HOLLOW BULLET $6.50
7 BESAME MUCHO $9.00
10 DANNI MARTIN $12.25

1 Mummify $3.00
2 Lad of the Manor $3.50
6 Beautiful Gem $6.25
10 Sure Bet $7.75
5 Roman Arch $11.50

[Jimmy]

Carlton Draught Carlyon Cup

2 Lad Of The Manor
6 Beautiful Gem
13 Umber
10 Sure Bet
15 Air Cooled

12 Speedy King


Coolmore Classic.
4 Lotteria
5 Hollow Bullet
1 Our Egyptian Raine
14 Johan's Toy
10 Danni Martine

12 Golden Weekend

[xptdriver]

Gday All

this is how I see these races... they look so obvious that there will probably be an upset..

5 CAULFIELD
3:15pm Carlton Draught Carlyon Cup (Gr 3) 1600m
Group III $151,000.00
Apprentices Cannot Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 52.0
No. Form Price Horse Name (Barrier)
2 2x63 $2.7 Lad Of The Manor (NZ) (11)
1 00x0 $6.4 Mummify (17)
6 x221 $11.2 Beautiful Gem (9)
11 617x $14.9 Lightning Command (4)
5 5835 $20.7 Roman Arch (8)

7 ROSEHILL
4:15pm Coolmore Classic (Gr 1) 1500m
3yo+ Fillies & Mares Group I $606,675.00
Apprentices Cannot Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 52.0
No. Form Price Horse Name (Barrier)
4 11x1 $3.4 Lotteria (10)
1 x244 $6.1 Our Egyptian Raine (NZ) (9)
13 3x15 $10.7 Trezevant (14)
9 08x3 $10.7 Hec Of A Party (19)
7 90x0 $14.3 Besame Mucho (13)

[Sportz]

CAULFIELD R5
2 LAD OF THE MANOR (71.0) $2.10
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM (68.5) $3.70
5 ROMAN ARCH (64.5) $10.00
13 UMBER (64.5) $10.00
15 AIR COOLED (64.5) $10.00
-------------------------
10 SURE BET (64.5) $10.00


ROSEHILL R 7
4 LOTTERIA (72.0) $3.90
5 HOLLOW BULLET (68.5) $8.60
10 DANNI MARTINE (68.5) $8.60
14 JOHAN'S TOY (68.0) $13.80
1 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (66.0) $16.10
-------------------------
9 HEC OF A PARTY (66.0) $16.10

[ubetido]

Caufiield Race 5

2 Lad of the manor 2.7
1 Mummify 4.3
6 Beautiful gem 7.7
14 requisite 13.6
11 lightning command 22.1

Rosehill Race 7

4 Lotteria 1.7
5 Hollow Bullet 5.9
13 Trezevant 13.3
7 Besame mucho 32.5
9 hec pf a party 54.7

[Sportz]

No change to the order, but I made a mistake with the rated prices for Caul R5. These are the correct prices:

2 LAD OF THE MANOR (71.0) $3.10
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM (68.5) $5.50
5 ROMAN ARCH (64.5) $14.80
13 UMBER (64.5) $14.80
15 AIR COOLED (64.5) $14.80
---------------------------
10 SURE BET (64.5) $14.80

[Sportz]

For some reason, I just knew that Niagara Falls was going to run well today. I pushed it up higher in my ratings today when the rain came, but still not high enough to put it in the top 5. :o

Well done to Dr Ron, QuickFunBet and Duritz who did have it in their 5.

[Sportz]

Quite a few people had Danni Martine in their top 5. Well done.

I ended up backing it. I was amazed at the price. $18.90!!! I thought it would be around 7 or 8 dollars. Good old outside barrier again gives you a better price. I had 3 of the first 4 home and the other one was one of my old favourites Forum Floozie which I've backed so many times. The first 4 paid $40343!

[Sportz]

Dr Ron thrashed us all this week:

Dr Ron (80 + 25) 105
QuickFunBet (30 + 35) 65
Duritz (57.5 + 5) 62.5
Sportz (22.5 + 35) 57.5
La Mer (15 + 25) 40
Jimmy (15 + 25) 40
Heavyweight (15 + 25) 40
kiwi (20 + 20) 40
The mug (15 + 20) 35
zorro (17.5 + 10) 27.5
Filante (22.5 + 5) 27.5
Top Rank (15 + 10) 25
Chrome Prince (15 + 10) 25
xpt driver (20 + 0) 20
ubetido (15 + 5) 20

Brilliant effort by Dr Ron in MR5 getting the first 4 in his 5 selections. Well done! And after a couple of months, someone has finally scored a duck on one of these races. Bad luck xpt. :o

Overall leaderboard:

Sportz 715
zorro 660
La Mer 645
Top Rank 615
Jimmy 605
QuickFunBet 587.5
Dr Ron 575
Duritz 557.5
Heavyweight 552.5
xpt driver 530
Filante 510
ubetido 492.5
The mug 425
Chrome Prince 380
Shaun 292.5
kiwi 195

[DR RON]

Thanks forthe acknowledgement sportz, this week I decided to add some bonuses for prepost odds, which obviously helped, especially with niagara falls being the second pick in fridays market at 8.00. It seems fridays market was more accurate than saturdays?

Anyway I was due for one half decent week. Maybe I will stick with my new bonuses.

A pity I missed that Wednesday tipping some weeks back otherwise I might be a bit closer Sportz?

[Sportz]

It seems fridays market was more accurate than saturdays?


It often is and usually provides better value.

[Sportz]

A pity I missed that Wednesday tipping some weeks back otherwise I might be a bit closer Sportz?

May not have made a lot of difference. If you remember, I decided to only count the best 2 scores out of 3 at that stage, so as to not greatly disadvantage people who couldn't post ratings on that day. I don't think you would have missed out on a whole lot. Probably 20 points at the most.

[DR RON]

I would assume that saturdays market is more betting based than fridays which be more of a raw assessment. or am I wrong in my thinking?

[Sportz]

A lot of papers around the country use those WA Tabform assessments in Friday's paper. Some papers do have their own prices for their local meetings though. Some of them then have changed markets in Saturday's papers, I guess as you said reflecting movements in betting. But plenty of papers do stick with exactly the same odds in Friday and Saturday papers. If you have a paper that has different markets, I would go with the Friday one. It will often tend to produce better value.

[DR RON]

The markets I referred to were in the Herald-Sun in Victoria.

[Sportz]

I use the Courier Mail and they also had Niagara Falls at $8 yesterday. It was $15 today.

[Sportz]

This week's races:

FLEMINGTON R6-3.15 SEPPELT WINES NEWMARKET HANDICAP 1200 M
1 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry G Boss 7 57
2 SPECIAL HARMONY Lee Freedman Steven King 6 54
3 ALINGHI Lee Freedman D Oliver 3 53.5
4 KEENINSKY (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Gauci 2 52
5 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien M Pegus 10 51
6 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins S Seamer 9 51
7 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 5 51
8 GENERAL BAYTON Donna Gaskin B Fenech 1 51
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S Baster 8 51
10 OUR QUIVIRA (NZ) Peter G Moody B Shinn (a) 4 51

ROSEHILL R7-4.15 DUBAI ROSEHILL GUINEAS 2000 M
1 JYMCAREW Bob Thomsen R M Quinn 10 56.5
2 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings H Bowman 7 56.5
3 EREMEIN Allan Denham C Brown 8 56.5
4 CHEVAL DE TROY (NZ) Colin Jillings D Beadman 2 56.5
5 ULYSSES Tony McEvoy L Cassidy 4 56.5
6 SVENSKA (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Beasley 5 56.5
7 DIGNITY PRINCE Neil Boyle J Sheehan 6 56.5
8 HIGH CEE (NZ) Bart Cummings C Munce 3 56.5
9 WINDON Neil Godbolt Dale Spriggs 1 56.5
10 NEVIS (NZ) David Payne J Cassidy 9 54.5

Small fields this week unfortunately. The Newmarket looks like a two horse race, but even so it will still be interesting to see who has which one on top.

Good luck. :)

[Filante]

Cheval De Troy in the Sydney race. Had a significant break before a fantastic first up third. Definitely the one to beat.

In Melbourne, Alinghi.

[Duritz]

For mine Fastnet Rock is a weight carrier. He won't go any slower for extra kilos, and if that's the case isn't actually at any disadvantage, and should therefore win.

[zorro]

MR6
3 2x21-Alinghi (3) 2.60
1 1x11-Fastnet Rock (7) 3.10
7 3215-Foreplay (5) 8.30
9 7162-Not a Single Doubt (8) 10.70
6 11x6-Don't Tell Tom (9) 15.00
emerg
10 x718-Our Quivira (NZ) (4) 37.50

SR7
1 2011-Jymcarew (10) 3.50
3 14x3-Cheval de Troy (NZ) (2) 3.90
2 4222-Eremein (8) 6.80
7 x516-Outback Prince (7) 7.50
4 3113-Dignity Prince (6) 9.30
emerg
6 5423-Svenska (NZ) (5) 15.00

[Tenacious Spirit]

Duritz, I tend to agree Re: Fastnet. His run in the Oakleigh i thought was somewhat affected by the weight he carried but the fact of the matter is he still won. That was round the bend at Caulfield where i would argue the weight was more of a disadvantage, especially given a poor caulfield record in the past. This is back in the straight and i can see no reason why he cannot carry the weight. The fact that Alinghi only has 53.5 seems redundant information in that there is only a 0.5 weight difference between them from the last run to this. If fastnet rock is the quality horse that people say he is, and by that i mean some pretty heavy comparisons to champion horses, then a .5 weight difference should make little difference.

Just my two cents.

[Filante]

Duritz, I tend to agree Re: Fastnet. His run in the Oakleigh i thought was somewhat affected by the weight he carried but the fact of the matter is he still won. That was round the bend at Caulfield where i would argue the weight was more of a disadvantage, especially given a poor caulfield record in the past. This is back in the straight and i can see no reason why he cannot carry the weight. The fact that Alinghi only has 53.5 seems redundant information in that there is only a 0.5 weight difference between them from the last run to this. If fastnet rock is the quality horse that people say he is, and by that i mean some pretty heavy comparisons to champion horses, then a .5 weight difference should make little difference.

Just my two cents.

Tenacious,

Don't agree with either of your two cents.

Fastnet didn't handle the track at Caulfield (not the weight). He meets Alinghi a kilo worse. The extra 200m from their last encounter favours Alinghi more than Fastnet.

Anyway, one of the two should win.

Cheers,

F

[ubetido]

FLEMINGTON RACE 6
3 ALINGHI
2 SPECIAL HARMONY
1 FASTNET ROCK
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT
4 KEEINSKY

ROSEHILL RACE 7
1 JYMCAREW
3 EREMEIN
2 OUTBACK PRINCE
4 CHEVAL DE TROY
10 NEVIS

[Chrome Prince]

FLEMINGTON RACE 6

3 Alinghi
1 Fastnet Rock
9 Not A Single Doubt
7 Foreplay
6 Don't Tell Tom

4 Keeninsky

ROSEHILL RACE 7

4 Cheval De Troy
3 Eremein
1 Jymcarew
2 Outback Prince
5 Ulysses

10 Nevis

[DR RON]

Melb r6

3 Alinghi
1 fastnet rock
9 not a single doubt
7 foreplay
6 dont tell tom
4 keeinsky

Syd r7
1 jymcarew
4 cheval de troy
3 eremein
2 outback prince
10 nevis
5 ulysses

[La Mer]

This week's races:
FLEMINGTON R6-3.15 SEPPELT WINES NEWMARKET HANDICAP 1200 M
ROSEHILL R7-4.15 DUBAI ROSEHILL GUINEAS 2000 M
Flemington Race 6
Alinghi $3.20
Fastnet Rock $3.60
Not a Single Doubt $7.50
Foreplay $10.00
General Bayton $13.50
Our Quivira $17.50

Rosehill Race 7
Eremein $3.50
Jymcarew $4.60
Dignity Prince $6.00
Outback Prince $8.00
Cheval de Troy $11.00
Svenska $14.50

[QuickFunBet]

Flemington Race 6
3. Alinghi
7. Foreplay
6. Don't Tell Tom
1. Fastnet Rock
10. Our Quivira
9. Not A Single Doubt (1st Res)
8. General Bayton (2nd Res)

Rosehill Race 7
10. Nevis
1. Jymcarew
4. Cheval De Troy
3. Eremein
2. Outback Prince
8. High Cee (1st Res)
6. Svenska (2nd Res)

Thanks,
QFB

[Jimmy]

Seppelt Wines Newmarket Hcp

3 Alinghi
1 Fastnet Rock
9 Not A Single Doubt
7 Foreplay
6 Don't Tell Tom

Res 8 General Bayton, 4 Keeninsky

Dubai Rosehill Guineas

3 Eremein
1 Jymcarew
4 Cheval De Troy
2 Outback Prince
10 Nevis

Res 6 Svenska, 5 Ulysses

[the mug]

Flemington R6

3-Alinghi 2.70
1-Fastnet Rock 4.7
4-Keeninsky 6.7
7-Foreplay 8.10
9- Not a single doubt 13.0


Rosehill R7

1-Jymcarew 3.8
3- Eremein 3.8
2-Outback Prince 5.7
4-Cheval De Troy 6.7
7- Dignity Prince 9.5

Cheers all

[Duritz]

OK 80% odds here

FLE 6 3.15
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $3.6 FASTNET ROCK-NZ
3 0.5 $4.7 ALINGHI
7 1.8 $11.3 FOREPLAY
5 1.8 $11.5 DANBIRD
4 2.5 $25.2 KEENINSKY-NZ
6 2.8 $34.4 DONT TELL TOM

ROS 7 4.15
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $5.5 OUTBACK PRINCE
3 0.0 $5.5 EREMEIN
4 0.0 $5.5 CHEVAL DE TRO-NZ
1 1.0 $8.4 JYMCAREW
6 2.0 $14.8 SVENSKA
10 2.7 $23.7 NEVIS

An extra one there in each leg in case of late scratchings.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

back for another challenge... lets see how we go..

Race 7 - DUBAI ROSEHILL GUINEAS
2 $3.2 OUTBACK PRINCE
1 $4.2 JYMCAREW
3 $5.7 EREMEIN
4 $9.9 CHEVAL DE TROY
5 $24.4 ULYSSES


Race 6 - SEPPELT WINES NEWMARKET HCP
3 $2.4 ALINGHI
1 $4.3 FASTNET ROCK
2 $5.7 SPECIAL HARMONY
4 $18.4 KEENINSKY
9 $29.9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT

[Sportz]

FLEM R6
3 ALINGHI (80.0) $2.00
1 FASTNET ROCK (78.0) $3.10
7 FOREPLAY (72.0) $19.60
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT (70.5) $24.50
6 DON'T TELL TOM (70.0) $28.00
-----------------------
4 KEENINSKY (69.5) $28.00

ROSE R7
4 CHEVAL DE TROY (68.0) $2.60
3 EREMEIN (66.5) $3.50
1 JYMCAREW (65.0) $5.10
10 NEVIS (60.5) $15.90
2 OUTBACK PRINCE (59.5) $21.30
-----------------------
6 SVENSKA (54.5) $51.00

[Top Rank]

Will be away for next week. Would love to tip the Slipper winner one week out, but I just can't find it yet. Best of luck to you all.
Newmarket.

Alinghi
Fastnet Rock Hudson
Not A Single Doubt
Foreplay
Keeninsky

Rosehill Guineas

Eremein
Nevis
Jymcarew
Cheval De Troy
Outback Prince

Good Punting

[kiwi]

Rosehill R 7

2 $2.5 OUTBACK PRINCE
3 $3.5 EREMEIN
1 $5.4 JYMCAREW
4 $7.5 CHEVAL DE TRO-NZ
5 $9.3 Ulysses

Flemington R6

3 $2.4 ALINGHI
1 $4.3 FASTNET ROCk
9 $9.2 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT
6 $12. DON'T TELL TOM
5 $25 DANBIRD

[Heavyweight]

MR6

3.Alinghi $1.35
1.Fastnet Rock $8.00
9.Not a Single Doubt $13.00
8.General Bayton $31.00
7. Foreplay $61.00

then Danbird, Keeninsky, Don't Tell Tom

SR7

1.Jymcarew $2.65
3.Eremein $2.75
2.Outback Prince $11.00
4.Cheval de Troy $12.00
7.Dignity Prince $26.00

then Nevis, Ulysses, Svenska

Cheers,

H.

Sportz, are you having any success with tweaking your ratings so that the top picks don't come up so short? I had Lotterria at $1.40 last week and now Alinghi at $1.35. Common sense tells me they just shouldn't be so short. On the other hand, at least when I mark them so short I'm encouraged to bet with more confidence...

[Sportz]

Heavyweight,

Now that she's won, I guess $1.35 was okay, but you're right, she probably shouldn't have come up so short compared to Fastnet Rock.

How do you do ratings? In kgs, lengths or points? If you rate horses in kgs, then you could perhaps use this price conversion table that I use. I've been fiddling about with it trying to get it to produce more accurate prices and I think I might have it about right now:

Top rated horse = 100 points
0.5 kgs behind = 87 points
1.0 kgs behind = 75 points
1.5 kgs behind = 65 points
2.0 kgs behind = 57 points
2.5 kgs behind = 50 points
3.0 kgs behind = 45 points
3.5 kgs behind = 40 points
4.0 kgs behind = 36 points
4.5 kgs behind = 32 points
5.0 kgs behind = 28 points
5.5 kgs behind = 24 points
6.0 kgs behind = 20 points
6.5 kgs behind = 17 points
7.0 kgs behind = 14 points
7.5 kgs behind = 12 points
8.0 kgs behind = 10 points
8.5 kgs behind = 9 points
9.0 kgs behind = 8 points
9.5 kgs behind = 7 points
10+ kgs behind = 6 points
11+ kgs behind = 5 points
12+ kgs behind = 4 points
13+ kgs behind = 3 points
15+ kgs behind = 2 points
20+ kgs behind = 1 point

Here's what you do. After you've done your ratings, you refer to the table and award points to each horse depending on how many kgs behind the top rated horse you have them. After you've done that, add up all the points of every horse in the race to get a total. Then divide that total by each horse's score and that will give you a price for each runner. Here's an example:

#1 Rtg 65.0 = 2.0 kgs behind = 57 pts
#2 Rtg 63.0 = 4.0 kgs behind = 36 pts
#3 Rtg 61.5 = 5.5 kgs behind = 24 pts
#4 Rtg 60.5 = 6.5 kgs behind = 17 pts
#5 Rtg 67.0 = 0.0 kgs behind = 100 pts
#6 Rtg 61.5 = 5.5 kgs behind = 24 pts
#7 Rtg 59.5 = 7.5 kgs behind = 12 pts
#8 Rtg 64.5 = 2.5 kgs behind = 50 pts

The total of those points is 320, so you now divide 320 by each horse's score and do a bit of rounding up or down to get their prices:

#1 320/57 = $5.60
#2 320/36 = $8.90
#3 320/24 = $13.35
#4 320/17 = $18.80
#5 320/100 = $3.20
#6 320/24 = $13.80
#7 320/12 = $26.65
#8 320/50 = $6.40

Hope that helps. Of course if you don't rate in kgs, then it's probably not much use.

[Sportz]

This week:

Top Rank (70 + 70) 140
Sportz (77.5 + 55) 132.5
Jimmy (70 + 60) 130
Dr Ron (70 + 50) 120
La Mer (72.5 + 40) 112.5
QuickFunBet (62.5 + 50) 112.5
Duritz (72.5 + 37.5) 110
ubetido (55 + 55) 110
zorro (77.5 + 30) 107.5
Chrome Prince (70 + 37.5) 107.5
Heavyweight (70 + 35) 105
The mug (70 + 35) 105
xpt driver (60 + 35) 95
kiwi (55 + 37.5) 92.5


Overall:

Sportz 847.5
zorro 767.5
La Mer 757.5
Top Rank 755
Jimmy 735
QuickFunBet 700
Dr Ron 695
Duritz 667.5
Heavyweight 657.5
xpt driver 625
ubetido 602.5
The mug 530
Filante 510
Chrome Prince 487.5
Shaun 292.5
kiwi 287.5

Well done Top Rank. It'll be a shame if you can't post ratings next week.

[Heavyweight]

Hope that helps. Of course if you don't rate in kgs, then it's probably not much use.
Thanks Sportz. Interesting table;thanks for sharing it. For this competition, I have been trying all sorts of things. Last week and today I rated them in Kgs and then converted them to prices using a similar table to yours, but sliding more steeply. Using your table gives me $1.50 Alinghi, $6.00 FNR, significantly closer to my gut feel of the right prices.

I had Alinghi 5.5kg ahead of FNR, mainly on the strength of superior strike rates and average earnings, particularly under today's conditions. I think I may be overdoing the bonuses for these factors, and in any case the approach seems a bit mechanical. It worked out in this case, but it doesn't often enough.

Anyway, thanks for your help. Another step forward...

Cheers,

H.

[DR RON]

I see there were a few good price winners in Sydney yeaterday that came from barrier 1.

[Sportz]

Yep! I had a great day. :D

I had $2 each way on River To The Sea purely because of the barrier, no other reason. Read the last post on this thread: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?p=60391#post60391

I also had $2 each way on Tui Song too, but that wasn't because of the barrier. It was tipped by Craig Tompson from Betbusters. Well done to him. Of course, the fact that it was starting from Barrier 1 was a bonus. I didn't back Kablammo in the last, but I did include it in my trifecta. :)

[Sportz]

This week's races:

ROSEHILL R5-2.20 THE BMW 2400 M
1 GRAND ARMEE Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 1 58
2 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy C Brown 2 58
3 COUNTY TYRONE Kris Lees H Bowman 10 58
4 ANOTHER WARRIOR Alan Bailey L Cassidy 3 58
5 MAHTOUM Kim Moore 9 58
6 MANAWA KING (NZ) Jim Conlan 7 58
7 SEUL AMOUR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 5 57.5
8 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 8 55.5
9 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody D Beadman 4 55
10 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings 6 53
11 CHEVAL DE TROY (NZ) Colin Jillings R S Dye 11 53

ROSEHILL R7-3.55 AAMI GOLDEN SLIPPER 1200 M
1 SNITZEL Gerald Ryan G Boss 56.5
2 WRITTEN TYCOON Grahame Begg D Beasley 56.5
3 DOMESDAY John Hawkes C Brown 56.5
4 STRATUM Paul Perry L Beasley 56.5
5 UNDOUBTEDLY Mark Kavanagh D Dunn 56.5
6 SEIDNAZAR Peter G Moody L Nolen 56.5
7 FLYING PEGASUS David Payne D Nikolic 56.5
8 AL SAMER Tim Martin H Bowman 56.5
9 DR GREEN (NZ) Brian Jenkins R McLeod 56.5
10 FASHIONS AFIELD Gai Waterhouse C Munce 54.5
11 MEDIA Bob Thomsen R S Dye 54.5
12 MNEMOSYNE John Hawkes D Beadman 54.5
13 OPPORTUNITY (NZ) Tony Vasil D Oliver 54.5
14 PERMISSIVE Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 54.5
15 BLIZZARDLY Gai Waterhouse D McLellan 54.5
16 POETIC GENIUS Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 54.5

I've put these up nice and early, so hopefully Top Rank can post some ratings this week. No barrier draw as yet for the Slipper.

Good luck. :)

[Sportz]

After the Slipper Barrier draw:

1 SNITZEL Gerald Ryan G Boss 12 56.5
2 WRITTEN TYCOON Grahame Begg D Beasley 14 56.5
3 DOMESDAY John Hawkes C Brown 4 56.5
4 STRATUM Paul Perry L Beasley 6 56.5
5 UNDOUBTEDLY Mark Kavanagh D Dunn 9 56.5
6 SEIDNAZAR Peter G Moody L Nolen 2 56.5
7 FLYING PEGASUS David Payne D Nikolic 15 56.5
8 AL SAMER Tim Martin H Bowman 8 56.5
9 DR GREEN (NZ) Brian Jenkins R McLeod 1 56.5
10 FASHIONS AFIELD Gai Waterhouse C Munce 3 54.5
11 MEDIA Bob Thomsen R S Dye 11 54.5
12 MNEMOSYNE John Hawkes D Beadman 10 54.5
13 OPPORTUNITY (NZ) Tony Vasil D Oliver 16 54.5
14 PERMISSIVE Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 5 54.5
15 BLIZZARDLY Gai Waterhouse D McLellan 13 54.5
16 POETIC GENIUS Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 7 54.5

[ubetido]

ROSEHILL RACE 5
1 GRAND ARMEE
8 MAKYBE DIVA
10 OUTBACK PRINCE
9 VOUVRAY
11 CHEVAL DE TROY

RACE 7
1 SNITZEL
5 UNDOUBTEDLY
10 FASHIONS AFIELD
2 WRITTEN TYCOON
3 DOOMESDAY

[DR RON]

Race 5


1.Grand Armee
8 Makaybe diva
11 cheval de troy
9 vouvray
2 hugs dancer
5 mahtoum
10 outback pr2 ince

race 7
1 snitzel
11 media
10 fashions afield
4 stratum
12 mnemsoyne
5 undoubtedly

[QuickFunBet]

Rosehill Race 5
1. Grand Armee
8. Makybe Diva
9. Vouvray
11. Cheval De Troy
5. Mahtoum
10. Outback Prince (1st Res.)
6. Manawa King (2nd Res.)

Rosehill Race 7
10. Fashions Afield
4. Stratum
1. Snitzel
12. Mnemosyne
8. Al Samer
2. Written Tycoon (1st Res.)
5. Undoubtedly (2nd Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

[Duritz]

OK here's mine. Can't post tomorrow so I'll post heaps here now!!

ROSE 5 2.20
seln mgn price
8 0.0 $2.0 MAKYBE DIVA
1 4.3 $3.5 GRAND ARMEE
7 9.9 $249.6 SEUL AMOUR-NZ
9 9.9 $286.0 VOUVRAY-NZ
11 9.9 $376.1 CHEVAL DE TRO-NZ
10 9.9 $395.9 OUTBACK PRINCE
2 10 $400.0 HUGS DANCER
5 10 $400.0 MAHTOUM

ROS 7 factors 3.55
seln mgn price
13 0.0 $5.4 OPPORTUNITY
5 0.9 $6.0 UNDOUBTEDLY
1 4.9 $10.6 SNITZEL
12 6.8 $17.1 MNEMOSYNE
10 8.1 $28.1 FASHIONS AFIELD
4 8.2 $30.7 STRATUM
11 8.4 $33.5 MEDIA

[Chrome Prince]

Rosehill Race 5
1. Grand Armee
8. Makybe Diva
11. Cheval De Troy
9. Vouvray
2. Hugs Dancer

10. Outback Prince
5. Mahtoum

Rosehill Race 7
1. Snitzel
10. Fashions Afield
4. Stratum
12. Mnemosyne
5. Undoubtedly

2. Written Tycoon
8. Al Samer

[zorro]

SR5
8 x721-Makybe Diva (GB) (8) $2.60
1 3111-Grand Armee (1) $3.70
5 5121-Mahtoum (9) $5.70
9 3x82-Vouvray (NZ) (4) $8.30
10 5163-Outback Prince (6) $18.70

SR7
10 111-Fashions Afield (3) $2.70
1 1131-Snitzel (12) $5.70
4 521-Stratum (6) $5.70
5 151-Undoubtedly (9) $6.80
8 x231-Al Samer (8) $9.70

[the mug]

syd rd5- the bmw

1- Grand Armee 1.90
8- Makybe Diva 7.50
5- Mahtoum 18.00
2- Hugs Dancer 30.00
7- Seul AMour 30.00

r7- golden slopper..

5 - Undoubtedly 4.60
10-Fashions afield 5.10
2-Written tycoon 5.75
7-flying pegasus 9.20
1-snitzel 11.00

THe Wizzzard, has rated grand armee very highly today. I'll be backing the big mare though...
cheers

[Heavyweight]

SR5

1.Grand Armee $2.10
8.Makybe Diva $2.25
10.Outback Prince $51.00
7.Seul Amour $51.00
5.Mahtoum $67.00

Then Cheval de Troy, Vouvray, Another Warrior

SR7

5.Undoubtedly $3.75
10.Fashions Afield $4.50
1.Snitzel $7.00
2.Written Tycoon $7.50
3.Domesday $16.00

Then Media, Al Samer, Flying Pegasus

Cheers,

H.

[La Mer]

Race 5:
MAKYBE DIVA
GRAND ARMEE
MAHTOUM
CHEVAL DE TROY
OUTBACK PRINCE
VOUVRAY

Race 7:
SNITZEL
UNDOUBTEDLY
FASHIONS AFIELD
MEDIA
STRATUM
WRITTEN TYCOON

[Jimmy]

The B M W.

1 Grand Armee
8 Makybe Diva
10 Outback Prince
9 Vouvray
2 Hugs Dancer

7 Seul Amour
5 Mahtoum

A A M I Golden Slipper.

1 Snitzel
3 Domesday
10 Fashions Afield
2 Written Tycoon
5 Undoubtedly

12 Mnemosyne
13 Opportunity

[xptdriver]

RACE 5 The B M W
8 $2.6 Makybe Diva
1 $4.6 Grand Armee
9 $10.7 Vouvray
3 $14.3 County Tyrone
10 $19.8 Outback Prince

RACE 7 A A M I Golden Slipper
8 $5.2 Al Samer
1 $6.9 Snitzel
10 $9.2 Fashions Afield
5 $9.2 Undoubtedly
12 $12.3 Mnemosyne

[Sportz]

ROSEHILL R5
1 GRAND ARMEE (79.0) $2.30
8 MAKYBE DIVA (78.5) $2.60
9 VOUVRAY (70.5) $25.60
10 OUTBACK PRINCE (65.0) $76.70
11 CHEVAL DE TROY (63.5) $115.00
-------------------
2 HUGS DANCER (61.0) $115.00

ROSEHILL R7
10 FASHIONS AFIELD (69.0) $4.60
1 SNITZEL (68.5) $5.30
2 WRITTEN TYCOON (65.5) $11.50
4 STRATUM (65.5) $11.50
12 MNEMOSYNE (65.5) $11.50
-------------------
13 Opportunity (65.0) $12.80
3 Domesday (64.0) $16.40
11 Media (64.0) $16.40

[kiwi]

Race 5

8
Makybe Diva $ 2.5
1
Grand Armee $ 3.00
3
County Tyrone $ 5.00
4
Another Warrior $ 9.00
10
Outback Prince $ 15.00

Race 7
5
Undoubtedly $ 3.00
4
Stratum $ 3.25
1
Snitzel $ 4.75
11
Media $ 8.00
10
Fashions Afield $ 9.75

[Top Rank]

Raced back home from holidays just for this comp. HA HA HA.


The BMW

1. Grand Armee
2. Makybe Diva
3. Vouvray
4. Outback Prince
5. Hugs Dancer


The Slipper

1. Fashions Afield
2. Written Tycoon
3. Undoubtedly
4. Domesday
5. Al Samer

Good Punting

[Sportz]

Well done Dr Ron in finding the Slipper first4 in your top 5 rated horses.

[Sportz]

This week:

Dr Ron (65 + 70) 135
zorro (87.5 + 42.5) 130
QuickFunBet (75 + 55) 130
Sportz (92.5 + 32.5) 125
kiwi (60 + 55) 115
Chrome Prince (65 + 47.5) 112.5
La Mer (62.5 + 42.5) 105
Top Rank (92.5 + 12.5) 105
xpt driver (92.5 + 10) 102.5
ubetido (85 + 12.5) 97.5
Jimmy (85 + 10) 95
Duritz (70 + 7.5) 77.5
Heavyweight (57.5 + 12.5) 70
The mug (52.5 + 10) 62.5

Overall:

Sportz 972.5
zorro 897.5
La Mer 862.5
Top Rank 860
Dr Ron 830
QuickFunBet 830
Jimmy 830
Duritz 745
xpt driver 727.5
Heavyweight 727.5
ubetido 700
Chrome Prince 600
The mug 592.5
Filante 510
kiwi 402.5
Shaun 292.5

Coming to the end of this little comp. How do you guys feel about doing ratings for Saturday AND Monday over the Easter weekend?

[Duritz]

I'm good to go!

[zorro]

My preference would be to to draw the line on Saturday - too many family commitments over the rest of the holiday period.
Congrat's Sportz you've been too good.

[zorro]

Now that we are near the end of the challenge I reckon it's time to declare how we actually arrive at our ratings.
I use :
1) My speed ratings (Beyer based)
2) A set of ratings based on sectional times - I only do these on Melbourne races
3)A commercially available set of ratings - usually Price Predictor.
My final selections are based on a consensus of the 3 sets of ratings.
I guess it's not surprising but I've found that over the last three years the consensus has out-performed any of the individual sets of ratings.

[Top Rank]

My ratings are based on a method I invented myself concerned with ranking of certain factors. To be honest most of the races that were rated were not races I bet on.

Good Punting

[DR RON]

Thanks sportz, a pity my top pick came nowhere!! neverthe less my climb up the ladder continues. I am happy for both days over easter sportz. The more races there are the more chance Ive got of catching you. although i think ive left my run too late. You have been very consistent and deserve the accolades sportz.

[Sportz]

Okay. Well, as Zorro suggested, we'll finish up the comp this weekend. However, I do think it would be good to include the Doncaster in our comp, so this is what I think we'll do. We'll rate 3 races this week, the 2 main races on Saturday and also the Doncaster on Monday. But, to be fair to the people who might find it a bit tough to post their ratings for Monday, we'll only count everybody's two best scores from the 3 races.

SATURDAY
RAND R5-2.35 AJC SIRES PRODUCE STAKES 1400 M ($422460) 2YO SW
1 STRATUM Paul Perry L Beasley 6 56.5
2 DOMESDAY John Hawkes 8 56.5
3 THE RHINE John Hawkes 12 56.5
4 POWER OF DESTINY Kevin Moses J Cassidy 7 56.5
5 PENDRAGON (NZ) Bart Cummings G Boss 1 56.5
6 JOHNNY Kris Lees L Cassidy 2 56.5
7 EL DE LAGO Bart Cummings D Nikolic 4 56.5
8 FASHIONS AFIELD Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 11 54.5
9 MNEMOSYNE John Hawkes 3 54.5
10 OPPORTUNITY (NZ) Tony Vasil D Oliver 5 54.5
11 ANOTHER TIME Gratz Vella D Dunn 10 54.5
12 FLORA DANICA Kris Lees D McLellan 9 54.5

RAND R6-3.15 AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY 2400 M ($1937860) 3YO SW
1 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings D Dunn 8 56.5
2 EREMEIN Allan Denham C Brown 3 56.5
3 JYMCAREW Bob Thomsen G Boss 11 56.5
4 XCELLENT (NZ) Michael Moroney M T Coleman 10 56.5
5 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman D Beadman 4 56.5
6 WESTERN BEAU Marc Conners D Nikolic 12 56.5
7 SVENSKA (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Beasley 1 56.5
8 KING JOHNY (NZ) Raymond Connors L Beasley 5 56.5
9 TAISHO Greg Kennedy L Cassidy 6 56.5
10 SLY DOG Rod Byrnes C Rixon 7 56.5
11 RAILINGS John Hawkes 9 56.5
12 HIGH CEE (NZ) Bart Cummings D Oliver 2 56.5

MONDAY
RAND R6-3.05 DONCASTER HANDICAP 1600 M ($1910360) 3YO+
1 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 11 56.5
2 COURT'S IN SESSION Guy Walter G Boss 12 55.5
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC John Hawkes 4 55.5
4 MODEM Lee Freedman D Oliver 15 55
5 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 7 55
6 THIS MANSHOOD Tim Martin Z Purton 1 55
7 PATEZZA Guy Walter D Nikolic 18 54.5 1.5
8 IKE'S DREAM John Hawkes 10 54
9 OSCA WARRIOR Gwenda Markwell S Seamer 17 54
10 SKY CUDDLE Peter G Moody 14 54
11 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse N Ryan (a) 9 54
12 CHARNWOOD GREEN Chris Wood 8 53.5
13 NIPS Clarry Conners J Innes 13 53.5
14 AL MAHER Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 6 53
15 DANNI MARTINE Guy Walter R S Dye 5 53
16 UTZON Les Bridge J Cassidy 2 52.5
17 TUI SONG (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 3 51
18 JOHAN'S TOY Guy Walter J Ford 16 49.5

You don't have to post ratings for all 3 races by Saturday. You can of course wait til Monday to post your Doncaster ratings if you wish.

Good luck. :)

By the way, I've thought up an idea for another entirely different comp that we can have a go at in a couple of week's time. I think it'll prove to be pretty interesting. It involves us picking a 'stable' of horses to follow over a period of 2 or 3 months or so, and we tally up the winnings from bets placed on these horses at each start. What do you think of that idea?

[Sportz]

It looks like Opportunity could be an early scratching in the Sires Produce.

[Duritz]

Yeah well done Sportz, too good. Too consistent. Too strong. (unlike, say, Cool Trent).

Sounds interesting BTW, your stable idea.

[DR RON]

To follow Zorros lead I will explain my ratings method,

1. select base run from tas tote site based on latest run that comes close to current race conditions.
2 subtract weight to be carried over bottom weight.
3 Thats it.

I used this method for the first half to two thirds of the comp with abject failure. Then I started giving bonuses for prepost ranking. Suddenly after three weeks I have moved from near the bottom to near the top. I thinkthere is two lessons I can learn from that. Firstly I cantrate horses for crap. secondly why should I bother when the "herd" can do it for me and be far more accurate in the long term. Hence , this weekends races for the comp will be the last I rate. form now on I will look at the first five in the pre post, cull them down to 2 or 3 and then gain the best prices and use some cautious staking and hope for the best.

[Chrome Prince]

SATURDAY
RAND R5-2.35 AJC SIRES PRODUCE STAKES 1400 M ($422460) 2YO SW
1 STRATUM
8 FASHIONS AFIELD
9 MNEMOSYNE
10 OPPORTUNITY
4 POWER OF DESTINY

2 DOMESDAY
3 THE RHINE

RAND R6-3.15 AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY 2400 M ($1937860) 3YO SW
4 XCELLENT
2 EREMEIN
5 STELLA GRANDE
1 OUTBACK PRINCE
8 KING JOHNY

3 JYMCAREW
12 HIGH CEE

MONDAY TO BE POSTED OVER THE WEEKEND

[ubetido]

RANDWICK RACE 5

1 STRATUM
8 FASHIONS AFIELD
9 MNEROSYNE
2 DOMESDAY
10 OPPORTUNITY

RACE 6
4 XCELLENT
2 EREMEIN
3 JYMCAREW
5 STELLA GRANDE
1 OUTBACK PRINCE

MONDAY RANDWICK RACE 6
14 AL MAHAR
15 DANNI MARTINE
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC
2 COURTS IN SESSION
1 DESERT WAR

[Chuck]

By the way, I've thought up an idea for another entirely different comp that we can have a go at in a couple of week's time. I think it'll prove to be pretty interesting. It involves us picking a 'stable' of horses to follow over a period of 2 or 3 months or so, and we tally up the winnings from bets placed on these horses at each start. What do you think of that idea?

that sounds awesome!

[the mug]

randwick r5
1- Stratum
8- Fashions Afield
2- The Rhine
9- Mnemosyne
3- The rine

4- Power of destiny


randwick r6
4-Xcellent
2-Eremein
1-Outback Prince
5- Stella Grande
11-Railings

3-Jymcarew

good luck all

[QuickFunBet]

Randwick Race 5
9. Mnemosyne
1. Stratum
2. Domesday
8. Fashions Afield
7. El De Lago
12. Flora Danica (1st Res.)
5. Pendragon (2nd Res.)

Randwick Race 6
2. Eremein
1. Outback Prince
5. Stella Grande
12. High Cee
4. Xcellent
3. Jymcarew (1st Res.)
10. Sly Dog (2nd Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

[zorro]

SR5
1 5211-Stratum 3.50
9 x224-Mnemosyne 3.90
8 1112-Fashions Afield 5.00
4 1942-Power Of Destiny 6.20
2 1125-Domesday 7.50

SR6
5 11x1-Xcellent 3.40
2 2221-Eremein 4.10
4 x321-Stella Grande 4.10
8 3x53-King Johny 6.20
1 1634-Outback Prince 9.30

[Jimmy]

Inglis - Sires's Produce Stks.

1 Stratum
8 Fashions Afield
9 Mnemosyne
2 Domesday
4 Power Of Destiny

3 The Rhine
11 Another Time

David Jones - A.J.C Aust Derby.

2 Eremein
4 Xcellent
1 Outback Prince
8 King Johny
5 Stella Grande

3 Jymcarew
7 Svenska

[zorro]

SR5
1 5211-Stratum 3.50
9 x224-Mnemosyne 3.90
8 1112-Fashions Afield 5.00
4 1942-Power Of Destiny 6.20
2 1125-Domesday 7.50

SR6
4 11x1-Xcellent 3.40
2 2221-Eremein 4.10
5 x321-Stella Grande 4.10
8 3x53-King Johny 6.20
1 1634-Outback Prince 9.30
Sorry Sportz I got the horse numbers wrong on race 6

[Sportz]

RAND R5
1 STRATUM (69.0) $2.40
9 MNEMOSYNE (67.0) $4.20
8 FASHIONS AFIELD (65.5) $5.95
2 DOMESDAY (64.0) $8.50
4 POWER OF DESTINY (57.5) $47.60
--------------------
3 THE RHINE (56.5) $59.50

RAND R6
4 XCELLENT (74.0) $2.5
2 EREMEIN (72.5) $3.9
1 OUTBACK PRINCE (69.5) $7.9
5 STELLA GRANDE (66.5) $21.1
8 KING JOHNY (66.0) $25.3
--------------------
3 JYMCAREW (65.5) $28.1

[DR RON]

Race 5

1 stratum
9 mnemosyne
8 fashions afeid
4 power of destiny
2 domesday

5 pendragon

race 6

2 eremein
1 outback prince
4 xcellant
5 stella grande
8 king johny

3 jymcarew

[La Mer]

Race 5:
Stratum
Fashions Afield
Mnemosyne
Domesday
Another Time
Power of Destiny

Race 6:
Eremein
Xcellent
Stella Grande
Jymcarew
Outback Prince
Western Beau

[Chrome Prince]

When this is all over Sportz, it may pay for you to go back and see the difference between backing your top selection straight out and only when the price is over your estimate. It could be an interesting exercise, as you lead the comp at this point. I realise you changed your actual pricing method along the way, but it could still surprise you.

[Duritz]

OK here's mine, for the second to last time. Until the next comp of course!

I've put in 6, just in case of a LSCR.

As can be seen in Race 6 I have 3 equal fourths, we'll take them as they are on the table there, which is to say, racebook order.

Good luck all.

RAN 5 2.35
seln price
1 $3.6 STRATUM
8 $5.2 FASHIONS AFIELD
2 $10.7 DOMESDAY
9 $14.9 MNEMOSYNE-NZ
7 $19.8 EL DE LAGO
11 $20.9 ANOTHER TIME


RAN 6 3.15
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.1 EREMEIN
1 1.0 $5.8 OUTBACK PRINCE
4 1.0 $5.8 XCELLENT-NZ
3 3.0 $17.8 JYMCAREW
5 3.0 $17.8 STELLA GRANDE
8 3.0 $17.8 KING JOHNY-NZ

[Heavyweight]

Race 5

1.Stratum $1.60
8.Fashions Afield $3.50
2.Domesday $17.00
9.Mnemosyne $41.00
3.The Rhine $251.00

Then Power of Destiny, Another Time

Race 6

4.Xcellent $1.40
2.Eremein $6.00
5.Stella Grande $21.00
1.Outback Prince $61.00
6.Western Beau $101.00

Then Jymcarew, King Johny, Sly Dog

Still having trouble finding a way to compress the prices to make them realistic.

The Mug, do we assume it's *2.Domesday 3rd* and *3.The Rhine 5th*?

[xptdriver]

Gday all

here are mine

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
8 Fashions Afield (11)
1 Stratum (6)
3 The Rhine (12)
6 Johnny (2)
2 Domesday (8)

6 RANDWICK
David Jones A.J.C Aust Derby (Gr 1)
3yo Group I
4 Xcellent (NZ) (10)
2 Eremein (3)
5 Stella Grande (4)
3 Jymcarew (11)
11 Railings (9)

[kiwi]

RANDWICK 5
1 Stratum $ 2.25
9 Mnemosyne $ 3.50
8 Fashions Afield $ 4.75
2 Domesday $ 11.00
11Another Time $ 15.00


RANDWICK 6
3 JYMCAREW $ 2.75
4 XCELLENT $ 3.00
10 Sly Dog $ 16.25 2 EREMEIN $ 3.75
1 OUTBACK PRINCE $ 9.00

[Chrome Prince]

Still having trouble finding a way to compress the prices to make them realistic.


Heavyweight, I assume you are adding up the rated points and then dividing each horse's points by the total to get a percentage and then a price.

Try this:

Instead of for example having one horse at 100 and the next at 98 and so on, start from the bottom, the horse with the least points.

Now calculate the difference between scores rather than the scores.

Example:

1.Stratum 100
8.Fashions Afield 98
2.Domesday 95
9.Mnemosyne 94
3.The Rhine 88

Do this:

1.Stratum 12
8.Fashions Afield 10
2.Domesday 7
9.Mnemosyne 6
3.The Rhine 1

So your prices will be compressed better.

This would be the result

1.Stratum $3.00
8.Fashions Afield $3.60
2.Domesday $5.14
9.Mnemosyne $6.00
3.The Rhine $36.00

I've only used hypothetical figures, and not the whole field, but you get the general idea.

If your figures are stil a little off, you can add a small bonus to the top scores, like top ranked x 1.5, 2nd top ranked X 1.4 etc. Play around with it until you get something that resembles a TAB market.