Backing 2nd to 4th favourites

[bazzatoo]

A PubTAB acquaintance mentioned an interesting betting approach, a week or so back. I don't even know if he uses the system himself.

Apparently, the idea is to back the 2nd to 4th favourites to win $5 per race. Lose, and you chase the lost outlay, plus win $5 on the following race.
Next race came on screen, he left it at that????

Intrigued, last Monday I started to keep records, of wins by the 2nd to 4th favourites, using the prepost market order (lowest saddlecloth no. if equal). Heaps of winners from the 2nd to 4th favourites, but I could see huge problems (and big losses) if a run of outs hit. Even 4 or 5 non winners in a row, would be devastating.

One aspect that did strike me, was the need to switch between meetings throughout the afternoon (back and forward in race time order). Some prepost markets appear more accurate than others.

By the end of the week, the need for filters was obvious. Big fields were producing the majority of loss situations (the other was the prepost favourite winning the race).
To improve results, but mainly to reduce the risk of runs of outs,
fields of 6-10 only, no 2yo or jumps races, seem to be the go.
To forget about races of less than 1400m, may be a positive. Also, perhaps only begin to bet when you are able to switch to and fro, between a minimum of 3 meetings (such as on Friday, with the staggered starting times).

I dropped out on Saturday, after Werribee was rained out, leaving only Newcastle and the Gold Coast. Actually, there were good results at Newcastle. I steer clear of Saturday metro meetings, always; yet 23 of the 33 races were won by the first four in the prepost.

Some states may prove to be better betting propositions than others, some days better than others.

For the 5 days I have examined, I am positive that one could have won every day, chasing the $5 (or whatever) per race, betting on every race. However, on a couple of occasions, it may have taken some nerve to hang in there. Hence trying to work out filters.

Does anyone have any comment on the feasibility of this idea, please? Or can provide results from past weeks.
I intend to compile another fortnight of results at least, before even thinking about having a bet. I am not in a financial position, that I can afford to bet in hope. Too often when the money goes on, the winners immediately dry up....as we are all well aware.....Murphy's Law of Punting.

Firstly, I need to prove that there is minimum risk involved. One major bomb out in coming days, could easily be enough to deter me. We'll see.

On the surface, after only 5 days, looking reasonable.

[kiwi]

G'day bazzatoo,

This site last item shows the workings http://www.horseracingaustralia.info/.

You would need strong bottle on a run of outs.

Kiwi

[Sportz]

Yep, I tried the $100 a day plan once using the 2nd-4th favs and although it probably does work okay, it just didn't seem to be right for me. I found my nerves weren't quite up to the loss-chasing part and also, as a person who does tend to back a few favourites, I found myself getting really mad when the favourite came home and I was on 3 other horses!!! Especially when in a lot of instances, I would normally have bet on that favourite.

I think it might be better to use ratings with this plan. Either your own or those of a professional service. Back the top 3 rated horses in a race to return a certain amount. They may be favourite or they may be 20-1. I rated 9 races yesterday and I found 6 winners on top as well as two winners with my 3rd rating horse, so I would have only had to chase losses after one race. The down side is that with the proportional betting, I wouldn't really have got any more for backing Danni Martine ($18.90) than Celtic Trial ($2.30).

Also, in answer to the initial query, the $100 a day plan is about TAB betting, not pre-post betting. Not sure how pre-post betting would go.

[partypooper]

Most of us know that the "inventor" of this plan is named not harry (but it rymes) it is spreading a wide net but has some merit.

It is typical though of the nerves that you will have to cultivate to win consistently at this game so in that sense its a good excercise.

For the faint hearted though there is a couple of alternatives (variations on the same theme)

here we go (braced for the broadside)

Take the WA TAB-Form pre-post prices AFTER SCRATCHINGS, for SR and MR on fridays, and any other days you like, we are interested in 2nd to 4th favs (pre-post) This actually produces a LEVEL stakes profit betting Maxi divi more weeks than not (inc. this week) 48 bets in all. (at levels, if Fridays only)

Next we back the 3 selections in the first timed race and bet to win $9 @ level stakes , in other words we have $1 on each searching for a 11-1 winner,
i.e. if we get a 11-1 winner we return $12 less $3 staked so $9 in front.

So if we back a loser , next bet is the next TIMED race alternating between SR & MR. This time we are looking to win $18 + the $3 lost on the first race =$21
so the total stake is $7 which we cant divide by 3 so we level up to $9, so $3 on each horse (remember we are searching for a 11-1 winner)

Ok so if we dont strike a winner here ,we carry on like this covering to win until a winner is struck (always backing race to race in TIME order)

Of course sometimes we will hit a winner at less than 11-1 (most times that is) so in this case only the target alters, eg say your target has crept up to $48 so your stakes will be $6 on each selection, and maybe there is a winner at say 5-1, so your return is $36 (win $30) so your next target is the shortfall of $18 + $9 for the next race= $27 so stake $3 on each of the 3 qualifiers.

If you do this as a seperate betting propsition for each meeting betting race to race the bank (maximum you can lose is $186 without hitting a winner) the maximum you can win is theoretically $9x8 races ($72) BUT is is possible and does happen that you will back a much higher priced winner than 11-1.(if backing saturdays we snared Danni Martine @$20.30 this week.

If anyone is interested further, I can send a spreadsheet down the line if you want, just request to "lumbasakabayo at hotmail dot com"

[kenchar]

Hey PP,
Like your email address. Very clever.

Cheers

[partypooper]

Kenchar, only us lucky few will understand that one ey? kasabot ka bisayan??

kahibaw ko daghang pulong sa visayan, pero kung mag historia hi sila, dili ko kasabot, tungod pas pas kaayo. Pero arang arang na-lang kai sa wah!

Can't wait to spend a few weeks there in April/May, catch up with the races on the net, and with San Miguel at $1 per litre bottle and Gilbeys at $3.50 per litre, there is potentially a problem with remembering the hols!!! hahahah!

Will also catch up with the English racing, as I will be there for the whole of June, and also Paris for a few days so am trying to fit in Longchamp if it works out, so will post my experiences when I get back, will be betting purely from the gut there so should be interesting.

[kenchar]

PP,
No I don't understand Visayan, my wife roughly worked it out.

I have the same problem as you, I understand and can speak Tagalog, but when we go to a party they speak so quick I just give up sit in a corner and get pissed.

[bazzatoo]

Over the past few days, 120+ races, backing prepost favourites 2-4, came out in the black.....by a miniscule amount. Suggests that staking, plus the introduction of a filter or two (or form study) could make this sort of thing work.

On Monday 7 March, from records of 23 races:

PREPOST FAVOURITE ORDER STARTING PRICE ORDER

1. Won 6 races Won 7 races

2. 3 races 4 races

3. 6 races 5 races

4. 4 races 4 races

----- -------
19 20
----- -------

$1 on each of 2nd to 4th prepost, resulted in a profit of $4, across the 23 races.

Tis interesting to do this sort of thing. Not really my form of betting either. Also requires an afternoon of sitting at the computer. The unmanageable run of outs has not happened in 7 days of record keeping, but got very close...scary stuff. Working around fields of 6-10 seems to be one answer.

The table above for Monday, does point out, that to look much beyond the top four in the markets (bush meetings at least) is probably a waste of time.

[Chrome Prince]

You'd need pretty strong filters and a pretty big bank for that plan.

If you're into looking at prepost markets, why not just back the prepost favourite when the TAB price is greater than the prepost price...I.E. something else is favourite.

You'll find some pretty nice overs about and can even go eachway. It's still a losing system, but I'd rather be chasing this kind of thing, than the other plan.

[Sportz]

Another thing I found difficult about backing the 2nd to 4th favs on the TAB is the constant change in prices. You can try to wait till the last possible moment, but in some races, your bound to end up with one of your selections being displaced in the top 4 by another horse right at the last moment. Or possibly the horse which is 2nd favourite when you put your bet on, comes in late in the betting and becomes fav.

[partypooper]

Sportz, Yes that's why with this one I stick to pre-post prices (after scratchings) 2nd to 4th favs (WA TAB-FORM). It is especially interesting on Fridays betting MR and SR only. But for Saturdays I prefer to back week to week with 8 banks for each meeting. i.e. Week 1, race 1, week 2 race 1 etc etc. This definitly spreads the risk and also gives you a week to think about the situation should there be a sequence thats looking dodgy. I have several "safety" nets one of which is to stop a sequence when the stakes are getting too high and ADD the target (proportionately) to the other 7 races.

As long as you think of this plan knowing that you are going to lose banks on more than one occasion, the trick is to win often enough to stay in front

[partypooper]

Just a note to all those that requested the spreadsheet, rememeber that my workout is based on WA TAB-FORM Pre-Race prices after scratchings, we then take 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fav's. Although I'm sure that the same plan would work if you used say the top 3 ratings instead etc etc, but my plan uses the PP and jags some nice priced winners,
Also remember that when a winner is struck at less than 11-1 (most of the time) just alter the target accordingly and proceed. One person suggested that say a big priced winner was struck early on and say, you were 50 units in front to stop betting for that day at that meeting. There could be many variations, and as always, it's what you feel comfortable with. Good luck!

[bazzatoo]

Taken me a while to get back.

Kept records for 9 days and seemed to go well. The 2nd - 4th favourites won regularly (longest run of outs - 3) with some very good prices here and there. Staking to win 'x' dollars per race, plus recover would losses, would have been relatively easy.

Then, on Wednesday 9 March, it all blew to pieces. Of the 31 races I kept records of, there were 19 losses, including a 6 in a row. Only backing smaller fields (say 6-10) would not have helped much.

Another idea bites the dust!!

[partypooper]

Bazzatoo, with this idea you have to accept that you are going to lose banks. My spreadsheet covers 8 races, though I find it works better if you are betting meeting to meeting rather than race 1 to race 8.The object is to stand losing those banks and still make money.

[dingoboy]

Hi Bazzatoo,

I have been using similar system for months now, i have found that yes the bank can get emptied before your very eyes.

Things the Dingo does in a loosing sequence (i may be wrong) !

A. walk away and have a cuppa, let four, five maybe ten races go bye and re evaluate fresh, dont get caught in the "must win my bank back on the next race" thingo.

B. As Party says, spread the "big risk" (your chase) over say four next bets, say you are down 400 units, instead of increasing next bet to 800, put 100 on the next 4 races.

C. (i use this) Dont be greedy, staking (and i do four nags usually) gives one a very high strike rate with good returns, STOP CHASING AFTER THREE OUTS IN A ROW. just go back to your base bet as the returns are more than enough to cover a loss like this, especially after you use it with rule A. If you end up way in front,......way way in front,.......chase your "big loss then if you want. Look for silly overs like unitab 4, stab 5, nsw 8,

D.Half the stake to say (in respect to rule B) 200, then use this to return half your stake loss but use two nags, 2nd and third fav, (Bhagwan) WAIT TILL FAV WINS AT A VENUE THEN BET THE NEXT RACE AT THAT VENUE, LEAVE FAV OUT. I used this once after a run of outs went to six, nails were short, sweat had started, the little ripper paid 12, but dont let it go that far if you can help it or a MASSIVE bank.

Cheers and hope you get something from my garble

Dingoboy

[Bhagwan]

Try this.
Out of your 3 Mules , delete the widest barrier.
This will give you greater fire power as far as value .
You will miss some but that doesnt matter.
The greater value will compensate because one is backing 2 horses not 3.
Target races with 10 & less runners.

[dingoboy]

Gday Bazzatoo,

Attatched is a speadsheet i built (shes a bit rough) for 5% bank betting which may help you.
All you need to do is enter venue (mel) race number, your selections and your START FIRST BET, once you put in your win divy, the thing calculates your next bet for you either up or down, i use it for dutch, 30 units / 3 mules is first bet, 10 units per mule.
I find that using 5% in dutching you will never really break your bank.

IMPORTANT BIT

To avoid run of outs, try this on paper (and the dingo may be wrong again),
Dont back mules this way,

Melb race 1, then Brisbane race 2, Adl race2, try to stick venue to venue, ie.
If there is races in Mel, bris, adel, syd, then start with four banks, divide working bank by four, reserve bank by four and set these aside per venue, i have noticed that if you get a run of outs in one venue,....old murphy will shurely give you a run of outs in the other venue just to stuff you up, hope you know what i mean.

Any way, see if it helps, good luck,

Dingoboy

[partypooper]

Dingoboy. Your comp skills are obviously a lot better than mine (not hard to beat) that spreadsheet is handy. On the question of race to race etc, you know the "originator" of the $100 a day plan, based it on SR & MR only betting (eg) SR-1, MR-1, SR-2, MR-2, etc etc. I see your point it would be very confusing etc to try and bet all venues like this. What I do, is have 8 banks, for each meeting that I want to bet at, now say with SR, my spreadsheet runs from week to week rather than from race to race. i.e. today my first bet is on race SR-1, my next bet for that bank will be NEXT WEEK SR-1, etc etc, same for all other meets (Metro) I find this spreads the risk nicely.

[crash]

Just out of curiosity, while all this action is going on between the favorite and 2nd. and 4th. favorites, how is the 3rd. favorite going ?

[kenchar]

Crash,
I don't want to change the gist of this thread so will start a new one, called 3rd + 4th favs.

[partypooper]

Crash, not sure if that was a joke or not, so if it was, it's on me. If not, the 3 investments in each race (from my rules) are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favs. as per pre-post market WA TAB-FORM (after scratchings).

Though as they say it probably doesn't matter which publication you use as long as you use the same one ALL the time.

[dingoboy]

Hi guys and girls.

Nice work Partypooper,

I think that spreadsheet i posted is a bit funny but,
Ive got an even better one that ive written up on my phone computer thing that is even smarter,(never used excel in my life until six months ago) when i have time to either duplicate it on this computer or can work out how to get it from that to this ill post it on this thread, i find it very usefull to keep track of it all.

With your eigth banks, are you saying that you use one bank per meeting or for differant options of outlaying/plans, i dont understand. i like your idea of week to week, that would really mix up the illogical runs of outs in a big way.

Cheers.
Dingoboy