A PubTAB acquaintance mentioned an interesting betting approach, a week or so back. I don't even know if he uses the system himself.

Apparently, the idea is to back the 2nd to 4th favourites to win $5 per race. Lose, and you chase the lost outlay, plus win $5 on the following race.
Next race came on screen, he left it at that????

Intrigued, last Monday I started to keep records, of wins by the 2nd to 4th favourites, using the prepost market order (lowest saddlecloth no. if equal). Heaps of winners from the 2nd to 4th favourites, but I could see huge problems (and big losses) if a run of outs hit. Even 4 or 5 non winners in a row, would be devastating.

One aspect that did strike me, was the need to switch between meetings throughout the afternoon (back and forward in race time order). Some prepost markets appear more accurate than others.

By the end of the week, the need for filters was obvious. Big fields were producing the majority of loss situations (the other was the prepost favourite winning the race).
To improve results, but mainly to reduce the risk of runs of outs,
fields of 6-10 only, no 2yo or jumps races, seem to be the go.
To forget about races of less than 1400m, may be a positive. Also, perhaps only begin to bet when you are able to switch to and fro, between a minimum of 3 meetings (such as on Friday, with the staggered starting times).

I dropped out on Saturday, after Werribee was rained out, leaving only Newcastle and the Gold Coast. Actually, there were good results at Newcastle. I steer clear of Saturday metro meetings, always; yet 23 of the 33 races were won by the first four in the prepost.

Some states may prove to be better betting propositions than others, some days better than others.

For the 5 days I have examined, I am positive that one could have won every day, chasing the $5 (or whatever) per race, betting on every race. However, on a couple of occasions, it may have taken some nerve to hang in there. Hence trying to work out filters.

Does anyone have any comment on the feasibility of this idea, please? Or can provide results from past weeks.
I intend to compile another fortnight of results at least, before even thinking about having a bet. I am not in a financial position, that I can afford to bet in hope. Too often when the money goes on, the winners immediately dry up....as we are all well aware.....Murphy's Law of Punting.

Firstly, I need to prove that there is minimum risk involved. One major bomb out in coming days, could easily be enough to deter me. We'll see.

On the surface, after only 5 days, looking reasonable.

G'day bazzatoo,

This site last item shows the workings http://www.horseracingaustralia.info/.

You would need strong bottle on a run of outs.

Kiwi

Yep, I tried the $100 a day plan once using the 2nd-4th favs and although it probably does work okay, it just didn't seem to be right for me. I found my nerves weren't quite up to the loss-chasing part and also, as a person who does tend to back a few favourites, I found myself getting really mad when the favourite came home and I was on 3 other horses!!! Especially when in a lot of instances, I would normally have bet on that favourite.

I think it might be better to use ratings with this plan. Either your own or those of a professional service. Back the top 3 rated horses in a race to return a certain amount. They may be favourite or they may be 20-1. I rated 9 races yesterday and I found 6 winners on top as well as two winners with my 3rd rating horse, so I would have only had to chase losses after one race. The down side is that with the proportional betting, I wouldn't really have got any more for backing Danni Martine ($18.90) than Celtic Trial ($2.30).

Also, in answer to the initial query, the $100 a day plan is about TAB betting, not pre-post betting. Not sure how pre-post betting would go.

Most of us know that the "inventor" of this plan is named not harry (but it rymes) it is spreading a wide net but has some merit.

It is typical though of the nerves that you will have to cultivate to win consistently at this game so in that sense its a good excercise.

For the faint hearted though there is a couple of alternatives (variations on the same theme)

here we go (braced for the broadside)

Take the WA TAB-Form pre-post prices AFTER SCRATCHINGS, for SR and MR on fridays, and any other days you like, we are interested in 2nd to 4th favs (pre-post) This actually produces a LEVEL stakes profit betting Maxi divi more weeks than not (inc. this week) 48 bets in all. (at levels, if Fridays only)

Next we back the 3 selections in the first timed race and bet to win $9 @ level stakes , in other words we have $1 on each searching for a 11-1 winner,
i.e. if we get a 11-1 winner we return $12 less $3 staked so $9 in front.

So if we back a loser , next bet is the next TIMED race alternating between SR & MR. This time we are looking to win $18 + the $3 lost on the first race =$21
so the total stake is $7 which we cant divide by 3 so we level up to $9, so $3 on each horse (remember we are searching for a 11-1 winner)

Ok so if we dont strike a winner here ,we carry on like this covering to win until a winner is struck (always backing race to race in TIME order)

Of course sometimes we will hit a winner at less than 11-1 (most times that is) so in this case only the target alters, eg say your target has crept up to $48 so your stakes will be $6 on each selection, and maybe there is a winner at say 5-1, so your return is $36 (win $30) so your next target is the shortfall of $18 + $9 for the next race= $27 so stake $3 on each of the 3 qualifiers.

If you do this as a seperate betting propsition for each meeting betting race to race the bank (maximum you can lose is $186 without hitting a winner) the maximum you can win is theoretically $9x8 races ($72) BUT is is possible and does happen that you will back a much higher priced winner than 11-1.(if backing saturdays we snared Danni Martine @$20.30 this week.

If anyone is interested further, I can send a spreadsheet down the line if you want, just request to "lumbasakabayo at hotmail dot com"

Hey PP,
Like your email address. Very clever.

Cheers

Kenchar, only us lucky few will understand that one ey? kasabot ka bisayan??

kahibaw ko daghang pulong sa visayan, pero kung mag historia hi sila, dili ko kasabot, tungod pas pas kaayo. Pero arang arang na-lang kai sa wah!

Can't wait to spend a few weeks there in April/May, catch up with the races on the net, and with San Miguel at $1 per litre bottle and Gilbeys at $3.50 per litre, there is potentially a problem with remembering the hols!!! hahahah!

Will also catch up with the English racing, as I will be there for the whole of June, and also Paris for a few days so am trying to fit in Longchamp if it works out, so will post my experiences when I get back, will be betting purely from the gut there so should be interesting.

PP,
No I don't understand Visayan, my wife roughly worked it out.

I have the same problem as you, I understand and can speak Tagalog, but when we go to a party they speak so quick I just give up sit in a corner and get ********ed.

You'd need pretty strong filters and a pretty big bank for that plan.

If you're into looking at prepost markets, why not just back the prepost favourite when the TAB price is greater than the prepost price...I.E. something else is favourite.

You'll find some pretty nice overs about and can even go eachway. It's still a losing system, but I'd rather be chasing this kind of thing, than the other plan.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Another thing I found difficult about backing the 2nd to 4th favs on the TAB is the constant change in prices. You can try to wait till the last possible moment, but in some races, your bound to end up with one of your selections being displaced in the top 4 by another horse right at the last moment. Or possibly the horse which is 2nd favourite when you put your bet on, comes in late in the betting and becomes fav.