Hat-Trick Attempts

[Glenno]

Rule 1: Bet any horse that has won its last two races, provided that it is not racing in a higher class than for its last win.
Rule 2: If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there is no bet.

[Top Rank]

Glenno


Due you have results for any of that miriad of systems you have posted or are just thinking out aloud.

[Chuck]

i don't think this one will succeed, formline 11 has such a bad strike rate

[Top Rank]

Under my rankings method, horses that come out on top and have the formline 11, win 33% of the time. BUT the average dividend is low, as you would expect.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

I think I have read somewhere (maybe on this site?) that horses attempting the three peat are a pretty good lay proposition as they are usually overbet and go off at way unders.. I am willing to stand corrected tho.. I must say when doing my form a formline of **11 is penalised, (having said that they quite often end up on top) as stated earlier there is generally no value..

Today and tonight (according to my form guides) there were four horses attempting the three peat. they were:

4 AWAPUNI
3 3411 Mohawk (NZ) (9) Unplaced @ Evens Fav

6 AWAPUNI
5 4311 Centalear (NZ) (3) Unplaced @ 6/1

4 MOONEE VALLEY
3 0x11 Tempo (5) 2ND @ 2/1 Fav

5 TOWNSVILLE
4 1311 Alwyn Street (6) 2ND @ 9/4 2nd Fav

So today was a good day to be laying horses with that formline.. Doesn't always work like that, but it seems to work ok... the other layers who read this will be able to tell more on this subject.. I don't think I would be using it as a basis for a betting system.. sure some of them are gunna win, but a hell of a lot are gunna lose and at pretty skinny odds..

[Paddy]

Gday All

I think I have read somewhere (maybe on this site?) that horses attempting the three peat are a pretty good lay proposition as they are usually overbet and go off at way unders.. I am willing to stand corrected tho.. I must say when doing my form a formline of **11 is penalised, (having said that they quite often end up on top) as stated earlier there is generally no value..

Today and tonight (according to my form guides) there were four horses attempting the three peat. they were:

4 AWAPUNI
3 3411 Mohawk (NZ) (9) Unplaced @ Evens Fav

6 AWAPUNI
5 4311 Centalear (NZ) (3) Unplaced @ 6/1

4 MOONEE VALLEY
3 0x11 Tempo (5) 2ND @ 2/1 Fav

5 TOWNSVILLE
4 1311 Alwyn Street (6) 2ND @ 9/4 2nd Fav

So today was a good day to be laying horses with that formline.. Doesn't always work like that, but it seems to work ok... the other layers who read this will be able to tell more on this subject.. I don't think I would be using it as a basis for a betting system.. sure some of them are gunna win, but a hell of a lot are gunna lose and at pretty skinny odds..


Not much better the day before xptdriver.


R4 Doomben
No4 X11 Mister Raw Unplaced @ 9/2

R6 Canterbury
No6 211 Our Liam Unplaced @ 3/1 Fav

R5 Ballarat
No7 011 Amoroof Unplaced @ 9/1
No9 211 Fine China Unplaced @ 7/1

R7 Murray Bridge
No2 311 Susie Mine 1st @ 5/2

[Top Rank]

Anyone laying Alinghi tomorrow. She won't pay well, but will she be unders.

[xptdriver]

Anyone laying Alinghi tomorrow. She won't pay well, but will she be unders.


Gday Top Rank...

I think we are talking apples and oranges here... the horses Paddy and myself listed earlier in the thread are hardly in the Alinghi catergory... Some horses do win 3 in a row, sure they do, top quality horses such as Alinghi etc, you expect to win 3 in a row, otherwise we have all badly overated the filly.. even some lowly old hacks manage the feat

I would lay at about 1/2 or 8/13 and be looking to bet at 4/6 or 4/5.. Having said that I will be leaving the race alone as I think the filly will win and I don't take odds on...no matter who they are.. my old man only ever gave one good piece of advice in his life... the old odds on look on...and I adhere to that..

[Top Rank]

XPT driver

I don't think we are necessarily comparing apples and oranges, I am talking generally.
As I said, if I have a horse on top in my ratings and it has this formline of 111 it will win 33% of the time. No doubt I will have Alinghi on top tomorrow. I don't know how all horses with this formline perform in general, but as we all know you must take other factors into consideration apart from the formline.
I doubt I would have had some of the mentioned horses on top in my ratings. But you are right they are overbet as would be expected of a horse winning its last three starts and under the odds - a lot of the time. But not all the time, then again value is in the eye of the beholder.

Where are you Glenno and what have you got to say, this is your thread. Are commenting on all of those systems you through in the other day or just staying stum.

[xptdriver]

Gday Top Rank

what I mean by apples and oranges is in general those horses are a poor betting proposition, but a horse like alinghi is not a poor winning proposition.. I have Alinghi on top, by quite a way, but I am not prepared to take the shorts that will be offered so I will leave the race alone...As far as ratings are concerend, Just beacause i rate a horse on top does not necessarily mean that I think it will win, it is just in my opinion the best performed horse in the race..

As for horses with **11 formlines (attempting a three peat) these are the ones running tomorrow.. let's see how they go... they will all probably win now :)

3 EAGLE FARM
4 7911 Neng Rain (7)

5 EAGLE FARM
1 1211 Celtic Trial (9)

6 EAGLE FARM
9 8211 Video Hits (11)

9 OAKBANK
2 2311 Sea Ransom (16)

4 RANDWICK
Blackmores T J Smith Stks (Gr 1)
5 x211 Alinghi (3)

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
1 5211 Stratum (6)

8 RANDWICK
Graysonline Carbine Club Stks (LR)
3yo Listed Race
12 3x11 Cimarosa (12)

9 RANDWICK
N.R.L. Adrian Knox Stks (Gr 3)
3yo Fillies Group III
1 211 Ponte Piccolo (NZ) (15)

4 TOOWOOMBA
6 x611 Slice Of The Pie (5)

5 TOOWOOMBA
3 0711 Miss Stronghold (6)

5 BELMONT PARK
9 4711 Rebotto (6)

8 BELMONT PARK
7 1311 Modaney (6)

5 NEW ZEALAND
Nzl Ellers 3PQty
Premier Quality
11 0211 Foursfield (NZ) (1)

9 NEW ZEALAND
11 1x11 Penitentiary (NZ) (20)

[Top Rank]

Of those I am only thinking Alinghi was atop winning chance with me. I don't look at WA or NZ.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

after scratchings these are the horses attempting 3 in a row today..

3 CAULFIELD
6 11 Longstreet (6)

3 EAGLE FARM
4 7911 Neng Rain (7)

5 EAGLE FARM
J.J. Atkins Easter Cup (LR)
1 1211 Celtic Trial (9)

4 RANDWICK
Blackmores T J Smith Stks (Gr 1)
5 x211 Alinghi (3)

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
1 5211 Stratum (6)

8 RANDWICK
Graysonline Carbine Club Stks (LR)
3yo Listed Race
12 3x11 Cimarosa (12)

9 RANDWICK
N.R.L. Adrian Knox Stks (Gr 3)
3yo Fillies Group III
1 211 Ponte Piccolo (NZ) (15)

4 TOOWOOMBA
6 x611 Slice Of The Pie (5)

5 BELMONT PARK
Easter Stks (Gr 3)
3yo+ Group III
9 4711 Rebotto (6)

8 BELMONT PARK
7 1311 Modaney (6)

5 NEW ZEALAND
Nzl Ellers 3PQty
Premier Quality
No. Form Horse Name (Barrier)
11 0211 Foursfield (NZ) (1)

9 NEW ZEALAND
Nzl Ellers 7Easter Hcp (Gr 1)
11 1x11 Penitentiary (NZ) (20)
2 1311 Kristov (NZ) (3)

[xptdriver]

Gday All

after scratchings these are the horses attempting 3 in a row today..

3 CAULFIELD
6 11 Longstreet (6)

3 EAGLE FARM
4 7911 Neng Rain (7)

5 EAGLE FARM
J.J. Atkins Easter Cup (LR)
1 1211 Celtic Trial (9)

4 RANDWICK
Blackmores T J Smith Stks (Gr 1)
5 x211 Alinghi (3)

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
1 5211 Stratum (6)

8 RANDWICK
Graysonline Carbine Club Stks (LR)
3yo Listed Race
12 3x11 Cimarosa (12)

9 RANDWICK
N.R.L. Adrian Knox Stks (Gr 3)
3yo Fillies Group III
1 211 Ponte Piccolo (NZ) (15)

4 TOOWOOMBA
6 x611 Slice Of The Pie (5)

5 BELMONT PARK
Easter Stks (Gr 3)
3yo+ Group III
9 4711 Rebotto (6)

8 BELMONT PARK
7 1311 Modaney (6)

5 NEW ZEALAND
Nzl Ellers 3PQty
Premier Quality
No. Form Horse Name (Barrier)
11 0211 Foursfield (NZ) (1)

9 NEW ZEALAND
Nzl Ellers 7Easter Hcp (Gr 1)
11 1x11 Penitentiary (NZ) (20)
2 1311 Kristov (NZ) (3)


Gday All

none of these horses won today... had a layer been laying these horses to lose $100, the layer would have returned a profit of approx $300... a backer on the other hand, did not have a collect....

[Paddy]

Gday All

none of these horses won today... had a layer been laying these horses to lose $100, the layer would have returned a profit of approx $300... a backer on the other hand, did not have a collect....


This little ‘system’ is becoming more intriguing by the day. Thanks xptdriver!

[xptdriver]

Gday Paddy,

here are the runners you could look at today... they will probably all win today and stick us in the poor house :)

6 COWRA
4:09pm Sky Channel Cowra Cup 1800m
Open $20,150.00.
4 0811 Linga Longa (3)


7 MORNINGTON
3:20pm Carlton Draught Easter Cup-C5 1500m
Class 5 $40,000.00.
5 x311 Camp Kalani (1)

9 MORNINGTON
4:35pm Munro Shoes - P Sheppard (C4) 1200m
Class 4 $11,000.00
Apprentices Cannot Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 52.0 .
3 1711 Waltz Music (10)

10 MORNINGTON
5:10pm . Lindt Chocolate Hcp (C2) 1000m
Class 2 $22,500.00.
6 11 Orpen Sesame (3)

4 STAWELL
2:25pm Westside Carpet Choice Hcp-C2 2000m
4yo+ Class 2 $11,000.00.
5 6x11 Great Sandy (3)

7 STAWELL
4:17pm Sunbury Medical Centre Hcp-C4 1300m
Class 4 $22,500.00
Apprentices Cannot Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 52.0 .
3 2311 Court On Fire (NZ) (9)

[xptdriver]

Gday All

ominous start

4 STAWELL
2:25pm Westside Carpet Choice Hcp-C2 2000m
4yo+ Class 2 $11,000.00.
5 6x11 Great Sandy (3) WON

[xptdriver]

Gday All

From today's lot the layer was the loser ... Great Sandy won at Stawell at upwards of 7 bucks and Waltz Music won as fav Mornington at about 2.80.. So the layer had 2 payouts and the bettor had 2 collects, ... had the layer been laying to lose 100 per horse, the result for the day was a loss of about 100.. the layer is still in the ascendency tho... the bettor returned roughly 70 % profit which is very good by any standards... I will keep my eye on it for a while and see where it goes..