Rule 1: Bet any horse that has won its last two races, provided that it is not racing in a higher class than for its last win.
Rule 2: If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there is no bet.

Glenno


Due you have results for any of that miriad of systems you have posted or are just thinking out aloud.

i don't think this one will succeed, formline 11 has such a bad strike rate

Under my rankings method, horses that come out on top and have the formline 11, win 33% of the time. BUT the average dividend is low, as you would expect.

Gday All

I think I have read somewhere (maybe on this site?) that horses attempting the three peat are a pretty good lay proposition as they are usually overbet and go off at way unders.. I am willing to stand corrected tho.. I must say when doing my form a formline of **11 is penalised, (having said that they quite often end up on top) as stated earlier there is generally no value..

Today and tonight (according to my form guides) there were four horses attempting the three peat. they were:

4 AWAPUNI
3 3411 Mohawk (NZ) (9) Unplaced @ Evens Fav

6 AWAPUNI
5 4311 Centalear (NZ) (3) Unplaced @ 6/1

4 MOONEE VALLEY
3 0x11 Tempo (5) 2ND @ 2/1 Fav

5 TOWNSVILLE
4 1311 Alwyn Street (6) 2ND @ 9/4 2nd Fav

So today was a good day to be laying horses with that formline.. Doesn't always work like that, but it seems to work ok... the other layers who read this will be able to tell more on this subject.. I don't think I would be using it as a basis for a betting system.. sure some of them are gunna win, but a hell of a lot are gunna lose and at pretty skinny odds..

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

Not much better the day before xptdriver.


R4 Doomben
No4 X11 Mister Raw Unplaced @ 9/2

R6 Canterbury
No6 211 Our Liam Unplaced @ 3/1 Fav

R5 Ballarat
No7 011 Amoroof Unplaced @ 9/1
No9 211 Fine China Unplaced @ 7/1

R7 Murray Bridge
No2 311 Susie Mine 1st @ 5/2

__________________
Ta me go maith

Anyone laying Alinghi tomorrow. She won't pay well, but will she be unders.

Gday Top Rank...

I think we are talking apples and oranges here... the horses Paddy and myself listed earlier in the thread are hardly in the Alinghi catergory... Some horses do win 3 in a row, sure they do, top quality horses such as Alinghi etc, you expect to win 3 in a row, otherwise we have all badly overated the filly.. even some lowly old hacks manage the feat

I would lay at about 1/2 or 8/13 and be looking to bet at 4/6 or 4/5.. Having said that I will be leaving the race alone as I think the filly will win and I don't take odds on...no matter who they are.. my old man only ever gave one good piece of advice in his life... the old odds on look on...and I adhere to that..

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

XPT driver

I don't think we are necessarily comparing apples and oranges, I am talking generally.
As I said, if I have a horse on top in my ratings and it has this formline of 111 it will win 33% of the time. No doubt I will have Alinghi on top tomorrow. I don't know how all horses with this formline perform in general, but as we all know you must take other factors into consideration apart from the formline.
I doubt I would have had some of the mentioned horses on top in my ratings. But you are right they are overbet as would be expected of a horse winning its last three starts and under the odds - a lot of the time. But not all the time, then again value is in the eye of the beholder.

Where are you Glenno and what have you got to say, this is your thread. Are commenting on all of those systems you through in the other day or just staying stum.

Gday Top Rank

what I mean by apples and oranges is in general those horses are a poor betting proposition, but a horse like alinghi is not a poor winning proposition.. I have Alinghi on top, by quite a way, but I am not prepared to take the shorts that will be offered so I will leave the race alone...As far as ratings are concerend, Just beacause i rate a horse on top does not necessarily mean that I think it will win, it is just in my opinion the best performed horse in the race..

As for horses with **11 formlines (attempting a three peat) these are the ones running tomorrow.. let's see how they go... they will all probably win now

3 EAGLE FARM
4 7911 Neng Rain (7)

5 EAGLE FARM
1 1211 Celtic Trial (9)

6 EAGLE FARM
9 8211 Video Hits (11)

9 OAKBANK
2 2311 Sea Ransom (16)

4 RANDWICK
Blackmores T J Smith Stks (Gr 1)
5 x211 Alinghi (3)

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
1 5211 Stratum (6)

8 RANDWICK
Graysonline Carbine Club Stks (LR)
3yo Listed Race
12 3x11 Cimarosa (12)

9 RANDWICK
N.R.L. Adrian Knox Stks (Gr 3)
3yo Fillies Group III
1 211 Ponte Piccolo (NZ) (15)

4 TOOWOOMBA
6 x611 Slice Of The Pie (5)

5 TOOWOOMBA
3 0711 Miss Stronghold (6)

5 BELMONT PARK
9 4711 Rebotto (6)

8 BELMONT PARK
7 1311 Modaney (6)

5 NEW ZEALAND
Nzl Ellers 3PQty
Premier Quality
11 0211 Foursfield (NZ) (1)

9 NEW ZEALAND
11 1x11 Penitentiary (NZ) (20)

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com