Laying the Fave using the Neurals
 

I have been looking at laying the fave using the neurals, and in the past 7 days there has been a 100% success rate, even though some days there were few selections, if any. The method is targeting the under $4 pre-post fave, and that horse must have the highest or equal-highest points in a maximum of any 2 of the 11 neural categories. (WT category not looked at). In other words, if it has the most or equal-most points in any three or more categories it is not a selection. I have not looked at Maiden races.

By my reckoning there are 8 horses today that have top or equal-top points in only two of the eleven categories. They are:
Moonee Valley R2 no.3 - Florizel ($3.00)
Port Lincoln R4 no.3 - Zaheerina ($3.20)
Port Lincoln R8 no.1 - Kuan Kung ($2.80)
Ipswich R6 no.10 - Latin tango ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.9 - Pinsemtoit ($2.50)
Pinjarra R4 no.5 - Tex Tycoon ($3.20)
Pinjarra R5 no.9 - Beleura ($3.50)
Pinjarra R6 no.9 - lady Lamington ($3.50)

Here's hoping...

A good effort. Only one winner Pinjarra R4/5 $2.60 uni-tab.

What neural settings are you using?

Well done Michaelg & thanks for sharing ones observations , they are very interesting.

One way to use this info to make a quid ,if one does not fancy laybetting on Betfair is this.

If the "Michaelg false Fav" is also one of the Radio TABs 3 selections, then we bet the other 2 horses to win, betting same amount on each.

(The 3 selections can come from any other reliable source where they have a 45-50% SR of one of their 3 getting up.)

If the false Fav is not in the 3 Radio TAB selections (or your own reliable sourse) , then it is a no bet race.
Thats it.


RESULTS
On the latest selections.
6 wins from 8 races. = 75% SR
Divs. $1.90,3.40,2.90,5.20,3.00,5.60

$100 bets per race @ $50 on each of the 2 horses in each race selected.
Total Ret $1100.00
O/L------$800.00
Profit ----$300.00 = 37.5% POT

Heres one`s $100 a day plan right here ,if the wheels dont fall off.

The Radio TAB selections have an approx. 50% SR of one of their 3 getting up, which is about the same as any other reliable source.

Its probable best to check this out further before placing any serious money on it , say over 150 bets. I feel it has some real promise.

Well done again Michaelg.


Cheers.

Bhagwan,

That is a top idea you have there. Thanks for sharing it.

Its a very interesting way of looking at picking selections.

Yes, Bhagwan, a very interesting method. As you say "if the wheels don't fall off" - however I think it might probably happen today as some of the selections look very good on paper. We'll see what happens.

13 selections.
Randwick R6 no.5 - Silent Song ($3.50)
Randwick R7 no.1 - Posadas ($2.00)
Sandown R1 no.2 - Make A Stand ($2.80)
Sandown R4 no.3 - Bel Danoro ($3.00) Unbeaten in two starts.
Sandown R5 no.3 - Opportunity ($2.50)
Wagga R4 no.1 - New England ($2.50)
Wagga R5 no.3 - Sweet And Tidy ($3.00)
Ascot R4 no.2 - Rouge Sky ($3.50)
Ascot R7 no.2 - Professional lady ($2.50)
Hanging Rock R4 no.3 - She's Just Ace ($2.80)
Hanging Rock R5 no.5 - Blastfromthepast ($3.00)
Hanging Rock R7 no.4 - Howqua ($1.70)
Hanging Rock R8 no.5 - Baby Emma ($3.00)

PP prices are a problem. Different sources are going to produce different PP selections. Not much point saying use the Bris. Courier Mail [for instance] to someone living in Melbourne, Sydney or Adelaide.

Apart from the above small problem; to simplify things, why not just back the 2nd. and 3rd. PP fav. flat stakes in these races? That way, 'tips' are avoided and the reduced SP these tips will incur.

Well done again Michaelg.
11 of the 13 False Favs fell over & thats very good at 15%
Thats better than what one originally may have thought .

Unfortunatly the Radio TAB only managed 2 wins from 9 qualifying races=22% $3.40,2.80 & that is well below how they normally perform .

Interestingly 3 horses got up in the qualifying races, at double figure prices & thats unusual , but thats racing on its day.

O/L 20.00
Ret 6.20
Loss -13.80

Cheers.

That was meant to read 2 from 10 qualifying races
Not 2 from 9.

Cheers

Hi, Bhagwan. Hopefully your method had an off-day and will improve.

By my reckoning eleven of the twelve selections lost yesterday, not thirteen selections because Ascot R7 no.2 was scratched. The only winner (I think) from the twelve selections was Ascot R4 no.2 which paid $2.80. If that is the case, then from the twenty selections so far only two have won paying $2.70 and $2.80. Promising, but as you say, the wheels might fall off.

Three selections today:
Canberra R5 no.2 - Henriminx ($2.10)
Gosford R1 no.1 - Lady Viv ($2.40)
Gosford R6 no.2 - Amineh ($2.50)

3 out 3 today michaelg....

cant ask for more than that..good work!!