Laying the Fav
 

To say that favs win 30-35% of the time is incorrect. Favs win from in excess of 80% down to below 20% dependant on the price. Their strike rate goes up when there is less than 8 runners and drops as more runners are added. They have a marginally better performance on GOOD tracks and drop off marginally in distance.
The biggest variable is the price but betting the fav in all price ranges is still going to be negative. Therefore laying the fav should a winner. This is based on the tote and you are going to lay on Betfair which makes it different

Where are the stats to show they win 80% and the criteria for that stats.

If you are talking every fav yes on average the 35% figure is correct and yes that figure changes with the price, if you could lay the fav at the back price you could be on a winner but since you can't then you need to introduce another angle.

Shaun Hi
Breakdown the winners by the price of the fav and you will find that at $1.20 the fav wins 81.81% of the time. =<$2 it is 50%. this was based on 43691 races. The 30-35% is not based on price. Beton

Another stat to look at is ...

If we target only Favs paying 2.50+ the SR drops to approx 25%

This is because the odds on shots have been deleted.

If you wish to target a false Fav to lay then use the Done Scott program in racingandsports & there is often one in there priced at 30.00+

I suggest you may like to have a little look at that.

Generally, the safest Favs to lay, are those priced at 4.00-5.00 in the live market
In races with 11+ runners.

If you wish to use a Lay staking plan , this plan works well on a solid SR

1-4 Lay Staking Plan
Where the bet is increased by 1 unit after each loss & is held at that bet until
losses are recovered.

Max Bet is 4 units & hold it at that level until losses are recovered.

Bet 1.00 per 250.00 bank.

Another way to bet against these, is to Dutch the whole field minus the Fav & the 100/1 shots.

Laying the Fav
 

So, where do we derive Fav from;
The early newspaper pre-post
The opening Bookie Price
The final price before the off
The adjusted price after the off (as on TAB sites)
The final Betfair price
If we choose any of the above, do we arrive at the same average

Laying the Fav
 

Matamata race 2 19may2010 1400m 12 starters
Unitab FAV 10 Chemin De Fame* 1.9 NSWTAB 16.40 STAB 17.50 BF 14.30
NSWTAB FAV 7 Our sweetheart 3.3 Unitab* 14.30 STAB 4.00 BF 4.30
STAB FAV 2 Commanding Oak 3.3 Unitab* 7.40 NSWTAB 4.00 BF 3.85
BF FAV 7 Our Sweetheart 4.33 Unitab* 14.30 STAB 4.00 NSWTAB 3.40
None of the above was a winner (Recession Proof 30+)
So how the heck is one to determine the FAV
In all cases the Unitab figures appear to be somewhat distorted
so ignore unitab as a medium, but we still have 3 FAVs???
Or as Fav is undetermined ignore race completely

Spot on place2win, you've just debunked 90% of systems that rely on backing or laying the fav. The optimists that devise these systems usually backfit the fav to fit get the reults they want. When betting live, they tinker them (after a bad day) to a slow and inevitable death. They then start the whole process over with another set of "logical" rules that can only be seen after the races have been run.

Laying the Fav
 

"If you wish to use a Lay staking plan , this plan works well on a solid SR

1-4 Lay Staking Plan
Where the bet is increased by 1 unit after each loss & is held at that bet until
losses are recovered.

Max Bet is 4 units & hold it at that level until losses are recovered."
Bhagwan (thanks)
Now see if I understand
My bets are determined by a formiula I use, dependant on the horses's
price.
bets are: all units ()= loss
(27) 16 21 16 20 22 25 20 16 (62) 25 20 (44) (60) 20 20 20 16 25 40
Total lost = 193 Total won = 342 Profit = 143
If I use your staking plan then:
(27) add1unit next bet 32 loss recovered
next bets back to one unit 21 16 20 25 20 16 (62)
add one unit next bet 50 and next bet 40 loss recovered
next bets back to one unit (44)add 1 unit next bet (120)
add 2 units next bets 60 60 60 loss recovered
next bets back to one unit 16 25 40
Total lost = 253 Total won 513 Profit = 268
Looks plausible, however would not want to
hit more than 2 lossess in a row as above
stakes could get out of hand

Laying the Fav
 

Thanks Mark
Trying to determine the best possible medium for the fav
Do I issolate those areas where the fave is not agreed upon
Do I select one medium and stick with that
Do I select the majority that agree
Past history is of no use save to show that on many occassions
there can be more than one FAV in a race.
When laying FAV is it more probable to lay a longer priced FAV
as the prognoses says the fav is not all it's ment to be, hence the
longer price (maybe/maybe not)