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-   -   Long Shot 100 raters (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24801)

Vortech 17th August 2012 09:45 AM
Long Shot 100 raters
 
Reading some threads by other users and some small testing over the last couple of months, the following rules seem to be holding up ok if you can bear the run of outs. By using Bet Fair your long-shots can some nice value.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $8.50 +

Cheers

darkydog2002 17th August 2012 12:22 PM
Hey Enjay.
Long time and no word from you.
Gives a bell.

The Ocho 17th August 2012 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Reading some threads by other users and some small testing over the last couple of months, the following rules seem to be holding up ok if you can bear the run of outs. By using Bet Fair your long-shots can some nice value.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $8.50 +

Cheers

UB's system tester since August last year says the following:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 282 selections for the System
There were 266 races for the System
There were 28 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.93%
There were $363.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $81.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.89%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 8.50 and rating = 100 and donScottRank >= 1 and donScottRank <=5 and runners >= 14

garyf 18th August 2012 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
UB's system tester since August last year says the following:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 282 selections for the System
There were 266 races for the System
There were 28 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.93%
There were $363.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $81.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.89%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 8.50 and rating = 100 and donScottRank >= 1 and donScottRank <=5 and runners >= 14
With a 10% strike rate you should get 'APPROXIMATELY" these runs of outs.

No's of bets and losers in between.

10=7.5
100=26.9
1,000=49.2.
10,000=70.9.

Personally i myself wouldn't be able to handle the long runs,
Of outs waiting for a winner others may though.

Cheers.
Garyf.

aussielongboat 23rd August 2012 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
UB's system tester since August last year says the following:

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 282 selections for the System
There were 266 races for the System
There were 28 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 9.93%
There were $363.48 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $81.48 or a percentage profit/loss of 28.89%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : WinPrice >= 8.50 and rating = 100 and donScottRank >= 1 and donScottRank <=5 and runners >= 14


Don't want to rain on the parade - but i think UB system tester results could be flawed - maybe it gets the BF prices after they jump where the market spread can be 160%/60%
i have found i can tinker around with a few simple filters and i can easily go into a good profit - i.e +15% POT.

when i put the same filters into my own DB - more like -15%

just an observation - be careful.

bernie 23rd August 2012 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aussielongboat
Don't want to rain on the parade - but i think UB system tester results could be flawed - maybe it gets the BF prices after they jump where the market spread can be 160%/60%
i have found i can tinker around with a few simple filters and i can easily go into a good profit - i.e +15% POT.

when i put the same filters into my own DB - more like -15%

just an observation - be careful.
aussie, I have had the same problem. I find something that gives a good POT on the tester, but when I monitor it for any length of time the results are somewhat disastrous. Okay, I know it's backfitting but to go from +20% on the tester to -20% in testing is of some concern.

.

norisk 23rd August 2012 02:39 PM
As pointed out in a recent thread there are issues with the place results of the tester, so I would suggest approaching the win results with equal caution.

aussielongboat 23rd August 2012 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
aussie, I have had the same problem. I find something that gives a good POT on the tester, but when I monitor it for any length of time the results are somewhat disastrous. Okay, I know it's backfitting but to go from +20% on the tester to -20% in testing is of some concern.

.

i wasn't talking about back fitting and then hoping for a future repeat.
i was talking about testing the same filters over the same period but testing it somewhere else - like on my DB for example.

UselessBettor 23rd August 2012 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by norisk
As pointed out in a recent thread there are issues with the place results of the tester, so I would suggest approaching the win results with equal caution.

Yeah place results are screwed on the site because of the wide ranges and lining up the palce markets with the win markets.

The win markets are ok though as they have a lot of checks to make sure the prices are right.

aussielongboat 25th August 2012 08:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Reading some threads by other users and some small testing over the last couple of months, the following rules seem to be holding up ok if you can bear the run of outs. By using Bet Fair your long-shots can some nice value.

1. Don Scott Rank 1 - 5
2. Runners 14 and greater
3. 100 Unitab rater
4. Price $8.50 +

Cheers


in the period from aprill 11 until july 2012 these are the results using tattsbet prices

starters 650
places 143
plc profit -150
winners 54
win profit -22
win pot -3%
win sr 8%


cheers

aussie


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