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Pixie's Pix
If you've been reading my lay thread "Some Oz lay selections" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=15751 you'll know I've been testing a lay selection method that unfortunately turns up some nice priced winners in the price range "11.50 and greater"*. Lays in the price range "11.00 and less" have managed to produce a profit but laying anything outside this range look's pretty fatal. Some quick calculations suggests that backing the selections 11.50 and greater should continue to produce some decent priced winners. I'll admit defeat in laying these so I'll turn the testing around and suggest these are backed to win instead.
20070421 ASCT05-01 Is Amazing 4.00 ... WON -3.00 20070421 ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go 8.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 CRAN08-05 Archachon 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 CRAN08-07 Mr Wang 12.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 E_FM01-08 Gonzalo 19.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 E_FM02-07 Leica Launch 15.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 E_FM06-01 Magically 6.40 ... WON -5.40 20070421 E_FM06-02 Love And Money 7.40 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 E_FM06-09 No Mistake 46.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 GCST05-04 The Chanster 4.10 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 GCST08-05 Tag 15.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 HAWK03-01 Hadaaf 7.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 HAWK03-06 Count Milano 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 HAWK04-10 Hesiod 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 MORP01-02 Dandy Jester 27.00 ... WON +26.00 20070421 MORP01-03 Foolish Lad 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 MORP02-02 Exalted Time 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 MORP04-04 Isanami 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 MORP04-07 Maloose 4.90 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 MORP07-03 Reshuffles 21.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima 6.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 SANL05-06 No Trouble 19.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 SANL06-10 Satin Robes 11.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 SANL07-01 Sarrera 4.90 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 TWBA03-06 Creswina 12.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern 44.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 TWBA04-06 Rockababe 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070421 TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070421 TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer 85.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis 9.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 BATH04-06 Royal Attitude 5.50 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 BATH04-07 Owatonna 6.40 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 BATH05-02 Dame Seven 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet 7.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 CHEL04-01 Londo 4.30 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 CHEL06-07 Croquet 6.80 ... WON -5.80 20070425 CHEL08-02 Marzotto 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack 19.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 GCST04-05 Glowing Rose 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 GCST07-09 Sky Mine 11.50 ... WON +10.50 20070425 GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge 17.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 GCST08-11 Sweetmandy 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq 7.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil 46.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 MOE_06-08 Elliptical 16.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 MOE_07-01 Cobalta 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 MOE_08-07 Indicates 34.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 M_V_04-04 Vengo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar 19.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 RAND01-06 Command Ruler 8.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070425 RAND04-08 Cagey Savings 70.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 RAND05-08 Big Head 44.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070425 RAND07-03 Sussman 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat 8.20 LOST +1.00 20070428 ASCT07-07 Zambane 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 ASCT08-05 Dee Picked 5.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 ASCT08-10 Lizardis 7.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 CAUL08-02 Pinezero 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM02-05 Stirling 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow 8.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM04-07 Vietnam 9.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM05-04 Mesmerising 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM05-07 Point Made 26.00 ... WON +25.00 20070428 E_FM07-06 Primus 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM08-01 Omnitrader 7.00 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM08-03 High Academy 38.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 E_FM08-08 Picablu 9.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze 14.00 ... WON +13.00 20070428 GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso 17.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 GCST02-10 Monagetti 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 GCST05-04 Golden Whistler 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 GCST05-06 Nepro 19.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 GCST05-10 In Order 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 GCST06-07 Muscle Up 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 GCST08-04 Aquaracer 6.20 ... WON -5.20 20070428 GCST08-05 Bushie 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 20070428 GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 MORP03-09 Night Gazer 24.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 MORP04-09 Lessie 29.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 RHIL03-06 Rubinda 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad 7.60 ... WON -6.60 20070428 RHIL07-09 Newport 30.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070428 RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 BLMT03-11 Trustadane 30.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 BLMT06-06 Star Laser 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON +16.00 20070505 BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah 18.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go 9.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 BRAT05-05 Decamp 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 BRAT07-02 Saliente 6.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON +26.00 20070505 GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother 38.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane 4.10 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 GCST06-03 King Rex 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 GCST07-12 Gaze 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 IPSW06-05 Darry 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny 15.00 ... WON +14.00 20070505 IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown 48.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen 6.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 K_GR07-02 Double Dip 8.60 ... WON -7.60 20070505 K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk 5.80 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 M_V_06-04 Ghost Party 80.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 M_V_08-07 Carat Cake 9.60 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 RHIL03-03 Scissons 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch 5.10 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady 38.00 ... LOST -1.00 20070505 RHIL08-12 Junebug 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 20070505 TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party 11.50 ... LOST -1.00 === RESULTS: April 21st - May 5th Lay 11.00 or less === Number of Selections: 53.00 Observed Successes: 47.00 Observed Strike Rate: 88.68% Expected Successes: 45.62 Expected Strike Rate: 86.08% Advantage: 3.02% Success due to luck: 55.00% Units Profit: +13.40 ROI: +25.28% Back 11.50 or greater === Number of Selections: 63.00 Observed Successes: 7.00 Observed Strike Rate: 11.11% Expected Successes: 3.41 Expected Strike Rate: 5.41% Advantage: 105.47% Success due to luck: 14.97% Units Profit: +74.50 ROI: +118.25% * Hopefully you've been very cautious in this range. I did post plenty of disclaimers. |
Pixie's Pix (continued)...
Above are all the selections I've posted to date. This list looks a little different than what was posted in the other thread as those that started at 11.50 and greater are listed as if we'd backed and not layed them. Below these is a summary of how we'd have faired and I think you'll agree we'd have done quite nicely. I'm not suggesting that the performance of the selections at 11.50 and greater are going to continue so strongly but I do think it's going to continue to turn up some longshot winners. You'd have done even better if you'd restricted your win bets to those that started between 11.50 and about 36.00.
The best way to play these would be to wait till seconds before the jump to place either your lays or back's. If the selection looks as though it'll start at 11.00 or less then it's a lay, anything else should be backed to win. The prices used have been provided by the Betfair Advantage Tool (B.A.T.). Please use caution until we've collected more data. I'll work out how many tests we'll need to conduct and let you know, but at present neither price range is producing a Chi-test score that would convince me to put proper money on these, and in fact the success of the selections in the range 11.00 and less is still more likely to have been the result of luck. So little money only please. Today's selection will follow later this morning. Good luck and please stroke my ego by keeping the feedback going :) |
Stroke, stroke....
On ya AP. Thanks for the hard work. Watching with interest.
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Selections: May 12th
Here we go. Good luck.
CAUL07-12 Itsamonty GCST04-06 Van Rooyen GCST05-05 Sweetmandy GCST06-10 Orpen Rose MORP03-05 Ernie's Molly MORP04-03 Scary Smokovek MORP06-02 Pride Of Archway MORP06-03 Zimstar MORP07-13 I'm A Goody NCLE06-07 Triumphator NCLE08-02 Chief Hennessy RAND02-06 Zappatore RAND06-09 Nothin But A Dane RAND07-03 Global One RAND07-08 Flying Orders RAND07-09 Rubinda SEYM06-04 Mahiman SEYM08-12 Yamaki SEYM08-17 Bowl Along BLMT and TWBA to follow. |
BLMT03-11 Trustadane
BLMT08-11 Cubic Zirconia TWBA02-05 Laurie's Lad TWBA02-06 Real Swell TWBA04-07 Right Spice |
With the late scratching of Wingate Street in the 7th at Belmont the following now qualify's as a late selection.
BLMT07-04 Coalseam |
Results: May 12th
Not a bad day really. The "11.00 or less" division had an excellent day, and the "11.50 or greater" division had the type of day you'd expect from it's 9-10% strike rate. The winners will come.
I'm listing the results so they're a bit less confusing. All prices from B.A.T. Keep the feedback coming. Interested to hear your ideas. :) ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- CAUL07-12 Itsamonty 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 GCST04-06 Van Rooyen 8.20 ... LOST +1.00 GCST05-05 Sweetmandy 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 GCST06-10 Orpen Rose 4.80 ... LOST +1.00 MORP06-03 Zimstar 4.20 ... LOST +1.00 NCLE06-07 Triumphator 5.10 ... WON -4.10 NCLE08-02 Chief Hennessy 2.40 ... LOST +1.00 RAND07-09 Rubinda 9.80 ... LOST +1.00 SEYM08-17 Bowl Along 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA02-05 Laurie's Lad 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA02-06 Real Swell 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - May 12th ---------- Number of Selections: 64.00 Observed Successes: 57.00 Observed Strike Rate: 89.06% Expected Successes: 54.83 Expected Strike Rate: 85.67% Advantage: 3.96% Success due to luck: 38.45% Units Profit: +19.30 ROI: +30.16% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT03-11 Trustadane 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT07-04 Coalseam 27.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT08-11 Cubic Zirconia 18.50 ... LOST -1.00 MORP03-05 Ernie's Molly 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP04-03 Scary Smokovek 13.50 ... LOST -1.00 MORP06-02 Pride Of Archway 18.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP07-13 I'm A Goody 17.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND02-06 Zappatore 29.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND06-09 Nothin But A Dane 13.50 ... LOST -1.00 RAND07-03 Global One 30.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND07-08 Flying Orders 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 SEYM06-04 Mahiman 13.50 ... LOST -1.00 SEYM08-12 Yamaki 24.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA04-07 Right Spice 36.00 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - May 12th ---------- Number of Selections: 77.00 Observed Successes: 7.00 Observed Strike Rate: 9.09% Expected Successes: 4.15 Expected Strike Rate: 5.39% Advantage: 74.16% Success due to luck: 25.84% Units Profit: +60.50 ROI: +78.57% :) ==================== |
Longer prices v's run of outs.
Afternoon AP,
I've manufactured so many systems that try to tap in on longer prices but what Ive discovered as a rule is that the higher the price the more eratic the run of outs. So much is this evident to me that I now believe a similar result might be achieved by throwing a dart. Things like jocks with high neural scores on cart horses, races where there is only one replacement jock and it concerns a long price runner etc. etc. You can do great for weeks or even months on end and then it all goes south. Drives me freakin' crazy! I've put this up not to pour cold water on your ideas but simply to let you know what I've been through. This is why for some years now I have been a place better on favourites only where I manage to score an insanely high SR at the expense of prices. I do everything they say don't do on this forum and yet it works fine for me. Things like I only use Qld TAB for my bets. (Reason is I can watch my horse get out the stall before I click the button!). Don't forget mum. |
Quote:
To be honest with you I'm less interested in the backing side of this test. I'm primarily a layer but I know alot of people like to have a go at the roughies and this selection method has turned up more than it should have. Could be a purple patch, we won't really have an idea until we reach a couple of hundred more samples. More on this to follow. Quote:
Yes I like that there are so many permutations available when investing on thoroughbreds. Finding the right one's is where the fun is. Even breaking the "rules" can turn a profit for a while. Quote:
Cheeky. |
Selections: March 19th
Good luck. :)
CHEL03-07 Lessie CHEL04-02 Merlot Now CHEL06-02 Toxic Free Mallee DOOM03-19 My Hangover DOOM07-04 Coalesce DOOM07-08 Cinque Cento GCST03-02 Brinkley Light GCST06-07 Screen Siren GCST07-03 Hallside Hero GCST09-14 Experience RHIL02-11 Montana Royale RHIL03-06 Parfumier RHIL04-09 Scorched Earth RHIL07-06 Newport RHIL08-06 Tolo SAND05-01 Bel Danoro SAND06-06 Desert Master SAND08-11 Roubechon BLMT and TWBA to follow |
Error in selections
Please disregard the following as a selection. Just realised the race type doesn't fit the selection criteria. Sorry about that
GCST06-07 Screen Siren |
Rest of todays selections. Will post the results and summary tomorrow. Hope the rest of your day goes ok.
BLMT04-05 Amadiora BLMT05-06 Metal Power BLMT06-11 Ticking Time BLMT07-02 Local Legend BLMT07-06 No Questions BLMT07-07 Gobiton BLMT07-11 Mercury Halo TWBA02-07 Foxie Em TWBA04-06 Much TWBA04-09 Show Biz Miss TWBA05-07 Kings Valour |
Results: May 19th
A nice day with both price divisions ending with a healthy profit. The highlight was snagging the 34.00 winner Cinque Cento. You could have got as much as 55.00 a minute or so before the jump. I managed 48.00. Show Biz Miss surviving a protest to win at 12.00 was the cream on the cake.
There was a couple of close calls in the "11.00 or less" lay division the closest was Merlot Now's whisker second which had he have won would have taken a nice bite out of our days profits. That's life on the lay. ;) Prices from the B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLMT05-06 Metal Power 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 BLMT06-11 Ticking Time 9.00 ... LOST +1.00 BLMT07-06 No Questions 6.80 ... LOST +1.00 CHEL04-02 Merlot Now 4.80 ... LOST +1.00 CHEL06-02 Toxic Free Mallee 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 DOOM03-19 My Hangover 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 GCST03-02 Brinkley Light 9.80 ... LOST +1.00 RHIL04-09 Scorched Earth 8.20 ... LOST +1.00 RHIL07-06 Newport 6.80 ... WON -5.80 SAND05-01 Bel Danoro 6.60 ... LOST +1.00 SAND06-06 Desert Master 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 SAND08-11 Roubechon 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - May 19th* ---------- Number of Selections: 76.00 Observed Successes: 68.00 Observed Strike Rate: 89.47% Expected Successes: 61.79 Expected Strike Rate: 81.30% Advantage: 10.05% Success due to luck: 2.03% Profit: +24.50 units Commission @ 5%: -3.40 units Net Profit: +21.10 units Net ROI: +27.76% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT04-05 Amadiora 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT07-02 Local Legend 16.50 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT07-07 Gobiton 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT07-11 Mercury Halo 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL03-07 Lessie 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 DOOM07-04 Coalesce 19.50 ... LOST -1.00 DOOM07-08 Cinque Cento 34.00 ... WON +33.00 :D GCST07-03 Hallside Hero 19.50 ... LOST -1.00 GCST09-14 Experience 32.00 ... LOST -1.00 RHIL02-11 Montana Royale 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 RHIL03-06 Parfumier 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 RHIL08-06 Tolo 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA02-07 Foxie Em 42.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA04-06 Much 40.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA04-09 Show Biz Miss 12.00 ... WON +11.00 TWBA05-07 Kings Valour 21.00 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - May 19th* ---------- Number of Selections: 93.00 Observed Successes: 9.00 Observed Strike Rate: 9.68% Expected Successes: 4.70 Expected Strike Rate: 5.05% Advantage: 91.64% Success due to luck: 13.12% Profit: +90.50 units Commission @ 5%: -8.72 units Net Profit: +81.78 units Net ROI: +87.93% :) ==================== * I've normalised the B.A.T. prices to a 100% market and have started subtracting the Betfair commission at a fixed rate of 5%. |
Any more filters?
Has anybody given any thought to other filters that could be applied to these selections? It would be great to weed out some of the real no hoper longshots and improve the strike rate there.
Any ideas? :) |
Quote:
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AngryPixie, without knowing the criteria of your selection process someone might suggest the distance of race, barrier, days from last start, place/unplaced last start, etc but these might already be in your elimination rules.
With my current methods I have looked at many factors but can't seem to come up at this time with any worthwhile filters - except with my Unitab 100 pointers I will not include any selections resuming from a spell or only have had one race start. Maybe these two rules might be worth looking at if they're not already accounted for in your selection method? |
Burrah/Michael
In hindsight maybe we should just let this run for a while to see what happens. As you say Burrah, you'd kick yourself if you filtered out a big priced winner. For the time being it's performing well so let's not tinker till we have to. Besides, I've long given up doing any form so the only filter angle I can think of is something that involves drifters and firmers, and I've only loosely been paying attention to these before the last 30 seconds or so. When I managed to lay a couple of selections early, below 11.00 I managed to green-up when they drifted over that mark. That's another way to play these I guess. Also I find Fairbot invaluable due to it's near realtime market refreshes and one-click bet submission. Great when your trying to snag a particular price right at the last second. We've actually passed the 95% confidence level for the "11.00 or less" lay group now that I've normalised the B.A.T. prices. In fact it's almost at 98% but that will jump around a little. Let's keep going until we get both groups over 95% i.e. success due to luck: 5.00%. The number of sample races involved here should of course be considered the minimum. Hope you guys are managing to grab some profits. :) |
Quote:
Michael I take your point. Without going into too much detail we're basically just playing the percentages here. There's no classic form fundamentals involved. By way of example and in very simplistic terms it works like this. First I take a very simple view of the race eg. there are ten runners in the race therefore every runner has one chance in ten of winning. I then gather some "facts" about the runners the most important part being that they are independant of each other i.e. one "fact" doesn't influence another. I crunch these "facts" together for every runner and get a probability at the other end. I look at the top four, subtract their probabilities from my simple one chance in ten view of the race and those with a positive result are the lay selections. eg. Runner 4 is the lay selection Runner 1 .10 - .31 = -.21 Runner 2 .10 - .15 = -.05 Runner 3 .10 - .11 = -.01 Runner 4 .10 - .07 = +.03 --- Runner 5 .10 - .05 = +.05 Runner 6 .10 - .02 = +.08 . . . You'll occasionally get a group of runners that are too close to seperate into a top four. In this case I include them all. That's the reason that some races have three or four selections. Some races have no selections, and I've a personal bias against 2yo, 3yo, Maiden and Jumps races so I ignore those, but I've no reason to think the method wouldn't work with them. Big fields can also be a problem and I'm still experimenting a bit there. And yes, the runners with the negative result in the top four do win more than their fair share of races. Getting the "facts" right is the hard bit and the bit I'll keep to myself but they should be very simple and proven to hold true over many years. There's a myriad of them though. It doesn't necessarily hold that the more you use the more accurate you are either. I've got it down to three that I use in Australia. The method works in the UK too, and was the basis of my "Beat the Donkey" thread. Interestingly what works on a Saturday in Australia doesn't work during the week where I think private information is of most benefit. You'll get more of an idea here. http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?p=7441 That's enough from me the rest is mine ;) |
AngryPixie, have you looked seperately at the "facts" that form the basis of your selections for their strengths/weaknesses. Can any of them be modified, eliminated, etc?
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Michael
The strength of the method is in the combination of the (let's call them) factors. That's what it all hinges on i.e. the group is smarter than the sum of its parts. When I added more factors accuracy improved only slightly at the expense of quite a bit of action as the price of the selections tended to lengthen. Remember I was primarily looking at this as a lay method. The three I use seem about right but about half of the selections are at uncomfortable lay prices. There's been quite a bit of trial and error. The Flatstat's page gives some indication as to what type of factors you can look at. You could use average prize money, jockey strike rate, trainer strike rate, saddle numbers, grey horses whatever etc. There are many many combinations. You might even work some of the Neural factors in there. ;) You don't have to do the substitution part either. You could just back or lay to the percentages you get after you've crunched the numbers. That's been more my approach in the past and it works ok to. In back testing this is actually looking quite ok on the lay side. At this stage I'll be dropping my present 7% POT lay method in this ones favour. The backing side can go a long time without turning up a winner. It's just unfortunate that the size of the Australian markets don't allow me to share some more. I'm happy to keep this going for a little while longer while we build confidence, as I'm not really putting proper size bets on these yet. Eventually I'll have to close the thread down :( Am I sounding too confident? I can see I'm setting myself up for a massive correction this Saturday. :eek: |
Selections: May 26th
Could be a challenging day with big fields making it hard to get our 11.00 cut-off. Nothing at the Valley today. Good luck with it though ;)
CHEL04-03 Semper Paratus CHEL04-05 Tic Toc Tac CHEL06-09 Manhattan Sky CHEL08-08 Dekoda Gold DOOM04-05 Sectagonal DOOM05-09 Ritzy Lady DOOM07-02 Mitanni GCST03-01 Ace Arena GCST04-07 Foxie Em GCST06-06 Chain Of Thought GCST07-06 Kirralee Queen GCST08-10 Tag NCLE06-10 De Rigueur NCLE08-05 Delago Star RAND02-06 Sharamagic RAND04-04 Jeteye RAND04-07 Stable Talk RAND06-12 Hesperia SALE08-04 Emgee Rex SALE09-02 Zephyr Speed SALE09-12 Hayward SALE10-14 Sunset Plaza BLMT and TWBA to follow |
BLMT05-06 Boy Canny Go
BLMT06-04 Cat In A Hat BLMT08-05 Legend Express TWBA01-01 Wisdom Of Joy TWBA05-10 The Pianist Good luck. Will post the results and summary tomorow night. |
Reults: May 26th
A good day with a clean sweep for the "11.00 or less" division, and a nice 26.00 winner for the "11.50 or greater". So both divisions ended with a good profit.
There was some over enthusiastic laying on some of the selections, and I'm sure a few of them were "artificially" pushed over the 11.00 cut-off. The best example of this was Jeteye which I managed to lay at an average of 9.66 only to see it pushed out to 12.50, thirty seconds later. There were some silly prices taken guys. :mad: Prices from the B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLMT06-04 Cat In A Hat 8.20 ... LOST +1.00 BLMT08-05 Legend Express 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 DOOM04-05 Sectagonal 6.60 ... LOST +1.00 DOOM07-02 Mitanni 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 GCST07-06 Kirralee Queen 6.80 ... LOST +1.00 NCLE06-10 De Rigueur 5.30 ... LOST +1.00 SALE09-12 Hayward 5.00 ... LOST +1.00 SALE10-14 Sunset Plaza 7.00 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA01-01 Wisdom Of Joy 7.80 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA05-10 The Pianist 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - May 26th ---------- Number of Selections: 86.00 Observed Successes: 78.00 Observed Strike Rate: 90.70% Expected Successes: 69.92 Expected Strike Rate: 81.19% Advantage: 11.72% Success due to luck: 0.24% Profit: +34.50 units Commission @ 5%: -3.90 units Net Profit: +30.60 units Net ROI: +35.58% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT05-06 Boy Canny Go 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL04-03 Semper Paratus 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL04-05 Tic Toc Tac 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL06-09 Manhattan Sky 48.00 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL08-08 Dekoda Gold 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 DOOM05-09 Ritzy Lady 55.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST03-01 Ace Arena 21.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST04-07 Foxie Em 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST06-06 Chain Of Thought 27.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST08-10 Tag 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 NCLE08-05 Delago Star 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND02-06 Sharamagic 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND04-04 Jeteye 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 RAND04-07 Stable Talk 44.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND06-12 Hesperia 29.00 ... LOST -1.00 SALE08-04 Emgee Rex 15.50 ... LOST -1.00 SALE09-02 Zephyr Speed 26.00 ... WON +25.00 :D Results April 21st - May 26th ---------- Number of Selections: 110.00 Observed Successes: 10.00 Observed Strike Rate: 9.09% Expected Successes: 5.50 Expected Strike Rate: 5.00% Advantage: 81.93% Success due to luck: 13.53% Profit: +99.50 units Commission @ 5%: -9.97 units Net Profit: +89.53 units Net ROI: +81.39% :) ==================== |
Going semi-private with the selections.
Guys
I'm going to stop posting the selections. The lurkers are starting to make the prices pretty dangerous and really aren't doing anybody any favours. I'm happy to e-mail the selections out on a Saturday morning till the end of June. After which I'll start hitting the lay side properly. If you're a 200+ poster or somebody I've spoken with in the past, leave your e-mail here in a masked format eg. username at domain dot com dot au and I'll put you on the list. I'll use this thread to post the results. |
That is disappointing Pixie. I always enjoy watching someones methods and without actually backing or laying your selections was still keeping a close eye. With the loss of your method this just gives another reason to visit this forum less and less. Good luck and I hope they continue to perform for you!
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Thank's Pug. Appreciate your feedback :)
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If you prefer not to leave your e-mail address here then send an e-mail to
angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au Please include your forum name in the e-mail You'll need to leave a posting here as confirmation so we don't get anybody pretending to be who they're not. |
That's a shame Pixie, you seem to be going great guns....didn't I tell you they'd come out of the woodwork ;)
I understand your price grief though, my thread has plummeted down to breakeven for May almost, and it is totally against the trend. The last 56,000 races plus two months were showing a great return and then pow go the prices. It's not the strike rate - it's the prices. What you have to do is turn it to your advantage and simply do the reverse - I love this back or lay caper :D |
Hi Chrome
The lay side does appear to be going ok. Back side :rolleyes: too. I may even review my lay only outlook of life. I really don't mind sending these off to the locals for a few more weeks, it's the guests that are most likely doing the damage. The median prices are changing quite a bit and I reckon about three of Saturdays "11.50 or greater" selections would have started at below 11.00 on any other day. I was especially suspicious when I saw bids and offers bumping around the 11.00 mark when the tote prices were quite different. I'm not a great believer in coincidence so I reckon your generousity with sharing your "Interesting E-mail" system has probably bought you a bit unstuck. Once it's out there you've completely lost control, so who knows who's using it now. :mad: It is wonderfully inventive though and as you say there's always the reverse as an option. I'm not sure there will be too many come out of the woodwork, but if they do they are welcome. :) As a matter of interest did anybody back the $26.00 winner this week and the $34.00 last week? Anybody??? PS: Your on the list Chrome although I think it'll just be you and me :eek: |
Ok so just me then
Just me interested in these tips then by the looks. I could have been sleeping in an hour longer on Saturdays if somebody had mentioned that before ;)
At least I know it wasn't the locals getting set at the silly prices then. Offer above still stands. :) |
Results: June 2nd
Bit of a dirty day with both price divisions giving a little back. Some of the negative results were very close.
 Prices from the B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- EFRM02-06 Masai Pride 6.60 ... LOST +1.00 GCST04-09 Glowing Rose 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 GCST05-05 Fast End 6.60 ... LOST +1.00 GCST06-02 Cool Scene 3.95 ... LOST +1.00 MORP04-03 Al Mahara 9.00 ... LOST +1.00 MORP05-01 Exalted Time 9.60 ... WON -8.60 MORP06-05 Constructor 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 MORP07-03 Little Baldy 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 MORP07-08 Cadgee Gold 9.80 ... WON -8.80 SANL07-05 Sentire 7.00 ... LOST +1.00 SANL07-09 Force Nine 4.10 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA03-06 Partygoer 5.20 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA05-04 Fissle 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA06-03 Prancy Nancy 5.50 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - June 2nd ---------- Number of Selections: 100.00 Observed Successes: 90.00 Observed Strike Rate: 90.00% Expected Successes: 80.94 Expected Strike Rate: 80.94% Advantage: 11.20% Success due to luck: 0.25% Profit: +29.10 units Commission @ 5%: -4.50 units Net Profit: +24.60 units Net ROI: +24.60% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT04-07 Lombo Choice 70.00 ... LOST -1.00 EFRM02-03 Atapi 12.00 ... LOST -1.00 EFRM08-04 Lachlan River 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 GCST07-09 Morning Colours 18.00 ... LOST -1.00 K_GR04-07 Sure Century 80.00 ... LOST -1.00 K_GR05-09 Bishop Casey 19.50 ... LOST -1.00 K_GR06-08 Dame Seven 26.00 ... LOST -1.00 K_GR08-04 Crownalot 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP07-10 I'm A Goody 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 RHIL04-04 Capanna 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 SANL05-03 Royal Lakes 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 SANL06-07 Forest Spy 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 SANL08-05 Diamond Cove 12.50 ... WON +11.50 TWBA03-13 On A Circle 29.00 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - June 2nd ---------- Number of Selections: 124.00 Observed Successes: 11.00 Observed Strike Rate: 8.87% Expected Successes: 6.22 Expected Strike Rate: 5.02% Advantage: 76.72% Success due to luck: 13.15% Profit: +98.00 units Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units Net Profit: +86.90 units Net ROI: +70.08% :) ==================== |
Peer reviewers sought...
I want to post the "Pixie's Pix" results till the end of the month but nobody has raised their hand to indicate any interest in the selections. :(
I can't keep posting them without somebody "at arms length" getting them before hand so I'd like one or more of the following contributers to this thread to volunteer to be the umpire. BURRAH CHROME PRINCE MICHAELG PUGNOSIS TWOBETS I'll provide the selections to you by e-mail on raceday morning. Shoot me off an e-mail to the address below and I'll get back to you. angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au If you don't want to don't worry, no offence taken ;) Hope to hear from one or all of you. |
Quote:
Probably take me a month to find which box the computer is in and then set it up. |
Quote:
Yep, you get to wear gumboots all the time. Nice one! Good luck with the move. Hope you've tee'd up a decent ISP connection. |
AngryPixie.
You can send me the selections each morning but I will have a problem if you wish me to record the results with real or accurate betting. I am not always at my computer and therefore in some cases would have to use the BAT results applying one click higher than the Bet price to obtain the Lay price. If this is acceptable I will provide my e-mail address or contact you. |
Michael
No problems. All I want to do is send them to somebody so when I post the results they can call me a liar and a ********** and a complete waste of space if I leave any selections out or add extra ones in. Don't really mind about recording the BAT as everybody can check this latter. Hear from you. PS: C h e a t was *'ed PPS: Perhaps I should just post them up here till the end of the month |
Yes, I think posting them here in the morning will prevent anyone from accusing you or me (or anyone else) of any funny business.
And anyone wanting to lay them will also have the opportunity to do so. |
I'm just wondering what criteria are you selecting the win bets on? It's obvious that more than 1 horse in a race is priced between $11.50 and $35.
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Could be interesting actually
Talked me into it then Michael. I'll post them here till the end of this month. Could be an interesting experiment actually. I reckon one or both of last weeks accidents could have been pushed over the 11.00 mark had they have been published. That would have made them wins in the other division ;)
I'm only using a test bank on these at the moment anyway. Crash, I'm just using a kooky combination of a few non-form factors to come up with the selections. They are then either a lay or a back depending on what their price is at the jump. 11.00 or less a lay. 11.50 or more a back. Started off as a lay only method but longshots kept getting up so I swapped the higher price division into back selections. I'm not actually backing the longies (though I did have a few bucks on some of them for fun), I'm really just interested in the lays. Can't really explain the success of the higher price division but suspect it'll fall in a heap before long. Lays look ok though. My method only seems to work this way on a Saturday or Public Holiday. During the week the opposite works quite well. Back the 11.00 and below selections, and lay the others (although I don't as they are too long). I don't have alot of time during the week though so it's Saturday's for me at present. PS: I'm feeling better today :o |
If.
Evenin' Pix,
Seems like your dilemma is sorted. If however some problem occurs I'm happy to step up to the plate. Just say the word. I'm going to that darn target betting thread now to see if any more insults can be generated! |
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