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-   -   System update? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=11808)

Sportz 12th November 2005 09:34 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
This was based on metro races only I should say.


Yes, this system is for Bris, Syd, Melb on Saturdays only.

Chrome Prince 12th November 2005 09:35 AM

Yep, the prepost rule would have ruled out a lot of the longies included in mine.

You might see if he can tell you the longest two priced winners.

I reckon some of those $12 prepost might be the $20 plus winners.

Surround 12th November 2005 09:56 AM

System update
 
Sportz
There you go. told you I didn't have too much patience.
Chrome has a much larger data base to work from so his analysis would be better than mine.
Anyway I plugged in the other rules I'd missed and this is the outcome.
Races 1300m and above = 14.% POT LLWS = 9 S/R = 34.1%
Must have won on track = 13.1% = 9 = 35.1
Btn favourite last start = 17.4% = 10 = 28.8 from 66 selections

I just plugged those rules in to the previous rules I'd applied.
I was wondering if you might be being too selective as the earlier one that I'd inadvertently mucked up showed a lot of promise.
I think you could do something with it.

Good luck

Sportz 12th November 2005 10:14 AM

Hey, no worries. Just throwing a few ideas around. It was purely a more restrictive version of another system I had on the forum a while ago, and as you can see, it worked very well in the test period I had last year. I simply wanted to see how it's been going lately.

Dale 12th November 2005 11:03 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
Bhagwan helped me create this system last year:



(12) Last start no more than 21 days ago


my old Number 1 system
(7) Must have won at this track at this dist (c) or be a last start beaten fav


Hi Sportz,

Both systems look promising but....

Why does everyone include rule 12) in their systems,imo its a myth,unless someone can show me a comparison of win % for those that started no more than 21 days ago & those over 21 days i will continue to totaly disregard it.



In the 2nd system i dont get rule 7),could you explain the reasoning behind asking for something as specific as won at track and distance and then turning around and ignoring that rule just because the horse was a last start loser at short odds.

NANOOK 12th November 2005 12:42 PM

Isn't that interesting....
 
1 Attachment(s)
Days since last run these are the results I get for this year

marcus25 12th November 2005 12:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
In the 2nd system i dont get rule 7),could you explain the reasoning behind asking for something as specific as won at track and distance and then turning around and ignoring that rule just because the horse was a last start loser at short odds.


Hi Dale!

"(7) Must have won at this track at this dist (c) or be a last start beaten fav"

If you read this carefully you will find that this statement is not a mutual exclusion, but an extra inclusion instead.
Ie. if it had not won on this track AND distance, it must have been a last start beaten fav. at least, to be included!
Cheers.

crash 12th November 2005 01:40 PM

Sportz,

The low alloted weight is possibly a poor rule and having to have had 4 starts might be more suited to 1600m and up races. The 4 start rule will also collect a lot of selections that are past their peak.

4 to 8 starts only
54kg to 57kg
1600m to 2200m

Might offer a good improvement.

Sportz 12th November 2005 02:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
In the 2nd system i dont get rule 7),could you explain the reasoning behind asking for something as specific as won at track and distance and then turning around and ignoring that rule just because the horse was a last start loser at short odds.


This system is simply an improved version of another system I previously used. In the original system, there were four different plans. One of them required a win at this track & dist. Another required a last start beaten favourite. Then there were two other plans which did not do so well, so I simply deleted them and kept the first two.

Sportz 12th November 2005 02:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
Why does everyone include rule 12) in their systems,imo its a myth,unless someone can show me a comparison of win % for those that started no more than 21 days ago & those over 21 days i will continue to totaly disregard it.


Well, Bhagwan worked out the first system and I assume that he found out that 21 days or less worked out the best. With the 2nd system, there were not a huge number of horses outside the 21 day range, but removing them improved the profitability in the period I tested it.


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