Hi guys. Could someone possibly help me with a couple of system tests???

Bhagwan helped me create this system last year:

(1) Saturday metro races in Qld, NSW and Vic (delete jumps races)
(2) Fast, Good or Dead tracks only
(3) Field size 12-16
(4) At least 4 starts since a spell
(5) Finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 4 starts
(6) At least 1 win in last 4 starts
(7) Finished 1st or 2nd last start
(8) Won at this track
(9) Allotted weight: 48-55 kgs (ignore apprentice claims)
(10) Between 3 & 7 years old
(11) At least 10% wins
(12) Last start no more than 21 days ago
(13) Between $3 and $12 in pre-post betting

Bhagwan tested it over the previous 4 1/2 years or so (I think) and it produced a profit of around 75%. I must admit that for one reason or another, I didn't keep up to date with the results though and I'm just wondering if anyone can do another test to see how it's gone in say the last 12 months???



Also, I wonder if someone could do a test on this one. It's a variation on my old Number 1 system and it went VERY well over a 3 month period last year (August - October), but again, I haven't kept up to date with how it's going now.

(1) All TAB meetings.
(2) No 2yos, jumps, maidens or races less than 1300m.
(3) At least 8 starters after scratchings.
(4) Consider Number 1 providing it is clear pre-post favourite between $3.00 and $5.00
(5) Must have finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 4 runs.
(6) Must have had at least 4 runs since a spell.
(7) Must have won at this track at this dist (c) or be a last start beaten fav (b).
(8) Last start no more than 21 days go

Hiya Sportz,

The prepost rules preclude me from testing the systems for you, as I don't have prepost records in the database, this maybe something I implement in future, as I've found some fanastic edges all over the place

But it's going to take months of work and research to get them in there.

Do you know of an online archive which has prepost prices?

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Sorry Chrome, no I don't.

Sportz,

If you have anything you want tested that doesn't involve prepost or unitab ratings, I'm more than happy to test it for you.

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Sure thing. Thanks.

If you want, you could try out that first system without the pre post price rule and see if it could actually produce a profit without that rule.

Hello Sportz
I'm new to this forum game, so please bear with me.
I ran your rules as best I could with your 2nd system from July 2004 to now.the rules as I put them in the data base follows:

RACE RULES:
exclude if Class = Hurdle, Maiden, Steeple
exclude if Age Rest = 2YO
exclude if Field Size between 1 and 7

HORSE RULES:
include if TAB number = 1
exclude if Spell Count between 1 and 3

FORM RULES:
include if Days Ago last run between 1 and 21
include if FinPos last run between 1 and 4
include if FinPos 2 runs ago between 1 and 4
include if FinPos 3 runs ago between 1 and 4
include if FinPos 4 runs ago between 1 and 4

RATING RULES:
include if Morning Line Rank = 1

STATS RULES:
exclude if Distance Wins = 0

The win POT (based on Unitab divs.) = 8.7%
Longest losing win sequence = 10
Win strike rate = 34.0%

Hope this helps.

Sorry Sportz
I left out the rule of fav between $3.00 and $5.00.
That improved the bottom line greatly from 8.7% to 32.1%.
The losing sequence dropped to six but the strike rate dropped to 26.3%.
There were only 38 selections over the period (15 months), so it is very selective.
By the way Sunday's had 10 selections for no winners.
Take Sunday's out and you have 79.3% POT LLWS = 4 S/R = 35.7%

Good luck with whichever way you decide to go.
It does show promise but requires patience, something I'm lacking.

Hi Surround,

Welcome to the forum. Thanks for that.

Go back to rule 7. You've only included distance winners, whereas I wanted horses which had won at this distance AT THIS TRACK. (not sure if you could test for that) And I also wanted to include last start beaten favourites (they don't have to have won at either distance or track). And you've also left out the distance rule of 1300m+.

Anyway, never mind. Thanks very much for your help.

By the way, in the 3 month test period last year, I got 14 qualifiers for 8 wins, 13 placings and a P.O.T of about 140%:
Aug 7 E.Fm R8-1 Strong Suit UNP
Aug14 G.Cst R6-1 Common Knowledge PLA $1.40
Aug21 Caul R1-1 Umbula PLA $1.50
Aug28 Rose R2-1 Canny Princess WON $4.40/$1.50
Sep 1 Sand R7-1 Batarshi WON $4.10/$1.50
Sep26 Hbt R9-1 Coalfields WON $3.30/$1.50
Sep27 Alb R5-1 Mary's Flag WON $5.70/$2.20
Sep27 P.Mc R7-1 Rodeo Chute Out WON $3.70/$1.50
Oct 4 Belm R4-1 Zero Engagement WON $2.20/$1.50
Oct 9 Chel R7-1 Lord Mick PLA $1.70
Oct14 Moe R5-1 Tortuga WON $5.70/$2.10
Oct16 E.Fm R2-1 Rue The Saint PLA $3.20
Oct22 Mack R2-1 Larrikin Prince PLA $1.40
Oct26 Tar R6-1 Desert Shaker WON $5.50/$2.30

Sportz,

Without reference to the prepost, it looked pretty good, but does not throw up many bets.

2000 to 2005

270 bets
38 wins
97 placings
281 win return
238 place return

11 units win profit
32 units place loss

4.07% win pot
-11.85% place pot

But take away the two longshots
$20.70
$21.60

And it's not that promising. The low strike rate with such good filters worry me a bit.

This was based on metro races only I should say.

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Chrome,

Bhagwan's test period was over 4 1/2 years leading up to the beginning of this year and with the pre-post rule in, he got:

148 bets
21% SR
71% POT

That was including fields of 17 which I deleted because they didn't go as well as 12-16 runners.