Anyone note what the 2nd. a 3rd PP favorites did in any of these races so far?

Crash, I haven't been recording the second and third pre-post faves, maybe someone has? I have been looking at trifectas omitting the selections from winning, but it's been up and down.

Yesterday the three selections were beaten.
Nine selections today:
Flemington R5 no.5 - Jukebox Johnny ($2.50)
Flemington R8 no.6 - Iris In The Glen ($3.50)
Eagle Farm R3 no.3 - Milady Clang $2.90)
Morphetville R3 no.1 - Tonlyn Spirit ($3.80)
Morphetville R4 no.2 - Terango ($2.40)
Morphetville R8 no.3 - Pure velocity ($3.00)
Kembla R5 no.1 - Vain And Bold ($1.80)
Toowoomba R6 no.5 - Milgara ($3.20)
Ascot R7 no.3 - Sir Chalmers ($3.80)

I have been looking on-and-off at another neural system which has been doing quite well with each-way betting. I'll list today's selections and see how they go...
Rosehill R3 no.3 - Go Cart
Eagle Farm R4 no.1 - Polar Wolf
Morphetville R1 no.3 - Intoxicating Ring
Toowoomba R5 no.2 - Hoodoo Voodoo
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Seismic Lady
Gold Coast R7 no.8 - Ming Gold.

Well done again Michaelg 3 from 3 fell over.

Results Fri 27th.Jan using TABQ back the other 2 plan

2 from 2 that qualified
$2.20,5.50
O/L 4.00
Ret 7.70
Prof +3.70 = 92.5% POT

Yes, a good result on Friday for your method, Bhagwan.

Yesterday though was somewhat disappointing: 2 winners of $3.10 and $3.50 from 9 selections. Hopefully today will be better.

To date there have been 32 selections for 4 winners totalling $12.10.

Seven selections today:
Nowra R3 no.2 - Gold Waltz ($2.70)
Nowra R7 no.5 - Master Strategy ($3.40)
Moe R4 no.1 - Beijing Magic ($2.00)
Sun Coast R4 no.4 - Dream 'N Scheme ($2.60)
Sun Coast R7 no.8 - Mrleon ($3.00)
Bunbury R2 no.1 - Silver Deck ($1.80)
Bunbury R8 no.6 - Dansiqe ($3.20)

Not the best of days again yesterday. From the six selections (one was scratched) there was one winner of $4.60.

To date there have been 38 selections for 5 winners totalling $16.70. Overall it's not too bad.

Three selections today:
Kempsey R7 no.3 - Siritnya ($3.60)
Terang R6 no.4 - Tenesse Tom ($3.50)
Terang R7 no.1 - Whiskey And Rye ($3.00)

Hi,
I’ve been recording the neurals for some time now and ran this thru my database from Sept 2004 to Nov 2005. I don’t have prepost prices so instead used unitab favourite.

Excluding 2yo races, there were 6794 selections for 1853 winners, 27.3% SR. The return was 5826.3 using unitab dividends for a 14.2% LOT.
The SR for all unitab favourites over the same period was 31% for a LOT of 13.4%.

So there is a significant reduction in SR but loss on turnover is similar. I would think that the difference between the unitab price and your lay price with betfair would account for the majority of the 14%.

Cheers

CHINBOK
 

Do you have any figures for MAIDEN favs?

Cheers.
darky.

Hi, Chinbok.

I assume your stats are using the default neural settings? If so, they are what can be expected for accurate ratings because the strike rate is what faves win, and the 14.2% LOT would more-or-less account for the TAB takeout. Therefore, if the neurals are accurate in selecting the winner would it not be reasonable to expect they are also accurate in selecting the false-fave? Or maybe this is only wishful thinking on my part?

Applying the selections to Betfair, and assuming you would have to lay them at a 33% premium to their TAB starting price, the payout on Betfair would have been $22.22 ($16.70 X 1.33). As there have been 38 selections, by my reckoning the system would be well in front?

So far, two of the three selections today have been beaten. Hopfully the third will also be beaten.

MichaelG
 

Hi Michael,

As I understand, the neural settings are irrelevant in your case. I used your rule that the favourite must not have the highest rating in more than 2 categories.

I haven't used betfair for a while but 33% premium on tab divvy seems high. Have you researched that? Regardless, your small sample does look like a good lay system.

However, if you apply the 33% premium to my figures, you would have made a 14% loss, laying these selections. (1.33 * 5826.3 = 7749 for 6794 selections.)

You will end up with different selections though using prepost favourites.

All the best with it.

DarkyDog
 

Hi Darky,

Maiden unitab favourites:
Bets: 5962
Wins: 1474
SR: 24.7%
LOT: 13.3%

Maiden unitab favourites that qualify for Michael's Lay System:
Bets: 2070
Wins: 347
SR: 16.8
LOT: 21%

2yo races included in both stats.

It appears that maidens would be a better lay. (no pun intended)

Cheers