I believe Mark Read's outfit were barred from betting into NSW Tab so I am wondering if they might bet some back into Unitab.

I see your point but lets face it, considering the pools in Vic. are probably 3 to 5 times larger than the QLD pools, with flexi-bet they would be getting even less [pumpkin scone?].

Well there are races were the exacta pays more than a trifecta, the duet pays more than the exacta, and the trifecta pays more than the first four. Maybe you just hit a patch which everyone else hit crash, and thus the outcome was small for a tri.

Yep, probably so. It's always seems to be the tri's I win though that pay poorly.

Hi all

Well asa suggestion concentrate on getting the good priced ones in the second spot alot of punters drop these and place in the third lot of combinations.

Of course the price of winner has some bearing but if you study the divis they will tell you the story.

Cheers
ubetido

If one is going to bet the field for 3rd , one is nearly always going to cop an expensive exercise to possible return.

Its an idea to try & restrict the number of mules down to 70% of the field if possible & work from there.


One Method of attack based on field size.
Percentage to field size
35%- 1st 70%-2nd 52%-3rd Of total field

E.g. Races with 11-12 runners @ 70% . Target 8 runners
4x8x6
We times 4x7x4=112 O/L

This represents 14% less O/L rather than betting 4x6x8=120 for greater spread of value.

The best races to do this on ,are races with 11-12 runners, so as to snare some value to exposed risk & O/L.

If doing the Melb Cup with 20 runners @ 70% = 14 runners
1st-7 runners 2nd-14 runners 3rd-10 runners
7x14x10
We times 7x13x8=728 units O/L

Here is the calculation to work out what one is up for , in ones preferred combinations.

Assuming 8 Horses.

3x5x8
We times 3x4x6=72 O/L
We take -1 away from the 2nd set of selections & -2 away from the 3rd set of selections.

3x8x5
We times 3x7x3=63 O/L

4x6x8
We times 4x5x6=120 O/L

4x8x6
We times 4x7x4 = 112 O/L

2X6X8
We times 2x5x6=60 O/L

2X8x6
We times 2x7x4= 56

One can see here that there is a greater spread of value having the majority to run 2nd rather than 3rd , for less O/L .

Using the pre-post market has shown to be slightly more accurate than most rating services.
Now lets see if the value plummits even more.

Cheers.

I agree. Boxing is probably the worst way to go, occasionally it will work out when some result goes your way, but it's probably better to take the time and even leave out the very poor poor bets and the underlay results.

In crash's example of 2x2xF there are too many combinations and it's too costly compared to the return if the result is anywhere near the predicted market order.

One way might be to dutch bet various combinations individually or to go against a higher strike rate for a better return by going 2xFx2 or for a really low strike rate Fx2x2.

Just some suggestions because the cost of the bet is the root of the problem initially.

I only use the 2x2xfield when 1 of the 2 are at good odds. If it wins the payout can be very good if you get your 2 home 1st. and 2nd. and if the 3rd place getter is at reasonable odds [or longer] the payout can be very good indeed if your longshot wins.
2 shorties and the field are just a waste of money as basically pointed out by others here.

It all falls apart as it did for me on Sat. in Bris. in R5 when the 30/1 Fancy Express came second and Tallum [my 2nd. horse] the fav. won. If it had been the other way around it would have been a very good collect.

Same thing happened to me in Melb., but with a bit of luck I could have scored 2 very nice trifectas. The advantage of this tri. is relatively low cost if you think you can pot the first 2. I of them has to be decent odds and win.

I use it a bit like a saver. e/w on the long shot and take it with the most likely to knock it off. If the longshot wins you collect on the big win, place and a big tri.
If the shorty wins there is a healthy place collect and a reasonable tri. or at least a collect on the place of about 5/1 which generally covers costs and often, even a bit of profit.

There are 3 positive outcomes possible out of 4. The 4th. of course being losing completely.