Crash, thought I'd save the best bit til last.
When I applied your distance rule across the same selections,
the results are as follows:

1400m+ only

34,58% W (14.88% POT) 68.22% P (8.85% POT)


1400m + but less than 2000


36.32% W (18.71POT) 69.43%P (9.38% POT)

WOW Party, Now that is a turn around !!

I'm not sure if you are talking about your system or Duntz's ? Either way that is an impressive sleuthing effort to come up with those results.

If you are talking about Duntz's system, have you including a price rule with those calculation as I would be surprised at the figures if you haven't ?

Considering the 3rd. or 4th. up rule and 10 day turnaround, 1400m + makes sense from a fitness point of view [fairly meaningless rule for shorter sprint races]. When you say 'less than 2000m' are you saying no more than 1950m ? It would seem strange that the percentages don't stand up to 2200m or at least to 2000m regardless which system your figures are applied to [?]. Personally I concentrate on 1400m - 2200m in my punting but I might review that rule a bit downward from 2200m if your figures fall away above 1950m.

By the way, does your stats database include p/post prices for all week east coast races or just SP ?

I Haven't got far enough in to my garage sale statistics book yet to speak with real authority but from experience I don't think that sample size of 237 bets is going to give you much more than a guide to the performance of a system. Still a lot of 'noise' at that level.

KV

That wasn't my little system returning that profit was it? I'd be very surprised - the S/R also seemed too high

No Duritz, that was Party's own system applying my above 1400m races only rule from another post. He has moved that discussion to a new post to be fair to you.

I agree Kenny about the 'noise' level and I am waiting for the loosing runs of outs to bring the system into reality as they always do with all systems.