Think the title speaks for itself. Anyone help me?

Rules are

- either 3rd up or 4th up from a spell
- todays race is 1200m or longer
- placed first up this prep
- unplaced second up
- backing up within 10 days.....

Any helpers?

Thanks.

Duritz.

No good Duritz,

I got half way through the last 4 years and it was showing greater than 20% loss, so I didn't continue.

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Duritz,

I wouldn't give up on that one. What you [almost] have is some very sane form rules.

Just add this little rule to turn that nasty 20% LOT around:

- must start at $5 or less.

You could use $7 pre/post as a starting point to work out any runners for the day but only bet on $5 or less starters. Starting price is probably the most powerful form rule available that can be added to any system and if $5 doesn't show a profit I bet at some price below it [$4/$3.5/$3] your system will show a profit. Naturally your available bets will also decrease but system profit is the point here not a large number of bets.

Thanks Chrome, Crash

Crash, I usually follow the logic of what you say and mostly agree with it but I have my doubts about your faith in this rule.
Cutting down your bets on a system by only betting on shorter and shorter priced horses seems to smack of an inherent distrust of the system itself. If the system is picking long priced horses that lose I would think there is something wrong with the selection method. Maybe it would be time to say, Ok I'll bet on favorites - but I'll eliminate the ones I think will lose thussly.
I'm sure you have good reasons to believe in this plan, no doubt based on more experience than I've had, I'd like to know what they are.

KV

Kenny, my reducing price was just an aside for what might [or might not] be a poor system above and also to demonstrate just how powerful an SP price indicator can be. If those reductions were followed, a dramatic improvement in % of winners would be noticed. Of course price however is relative to % of winners as far as profit is concerned, but the 20% loss mentioned above includes all runners meeting the rule criteria, including those with unrealistic SP odds. A price rule would get rid of all those and give a better indication of the system's potential.

If you have a system [with regular high priced runners showing up among mostly moderate priced runners] that isn't performing, the starting price is telling you loud and clear that not only that these runner's form is suspect, but that there is something wrong with the system's rules. I would then be looking at why these rules are throwing up these inconsistencies and modify them accordingly. When the rules are sorted the starting price should then reflect this as being a moderate one [unless it is a long shot system].

An SP price rule in a system at least automatically puts your runners in the winners hit parade, as 80% of the time that is the price range of all winners. If the system is loosing, I would then have a hard look at the rules. A price rule apart from being a form indicator is also acting as a safety net against heavy loss.

Crash, I have a "method" which has produced 32% wins and 66.41% palced over 4 years , and without ANY filters shows 3.15% POT(win) and 3% POT (place)

Just for interest sake I applied your idea to the basic selections without any other consideration other than PRE POST price (Tab-Form)

Reults as follows:
Above 5/1 29.17%w (25.75%POT) 70.83%P (29.17% POT)
5/1 + 22.86%W (19.11%POT) 71.43%P (35.43% POT)

3/1-5/1 26.36%W (1.98%LOT) 55.04%P (8.45% LOT)

1/1-3/1 37.16%W (7.85% POT) 71.56%P (4.62% POT)

1/1-LESS 38.89%W (29.28%LOT) 77.78%P (1.11POT)

1/1-1.5 40.58%W (10%LOT) 76.81%P (6% POT)

Of course, this only applies to my particular selections of course, but still its food for thought, the safest option seems to be 1/1-3/1, 5/1+ looks too good to be true, 1/1 or less seems like a BIG no no!

I could`nt kick it into profit , the SP $5.00 & less idea produced a greater loss.

__________________
Cheers.

I think you might agree that we where kicking a dead horse with the above system Bagman. Still, it is good to see that Duntz [or anybody] is having a go. Systems might not be my main betting interest but I love their challenge.

Party, well I know you are a very experienced systems tragic who can avoid the pitfalls of homemade systems and even come up with a profitable one without a price rule [which is no small achievement], but for the average Joe including this writer, I think the price rule is a good one as a system safety net and also as an early indicator of flawed rules being used by the unwary. Especially for those systemites without a data bank.

I agree with you about short prices, as I have also found that the short end of the SP range is definitely the profit end. Also considering that an average price of 1/1 has a run of outs prospect of 10, is another good reason to work the short end, but not odds on.

Party,

Just checked some figures from a system I have been running for awhile that includes a p/post odds rule of $2.50 to $7. Interesting figures which show that not all systems do better at the low price end and I'm ************ed if I can work out why except that my below $5.50 winners have returned far less value than my $5.60 to $7 winners [???]. Why this is so is a mystery to me.

Overall units bet 677. Returned 833.

Price $2.50 to $5.50
Units bet 440
Returned 502

Price $5.60 to $7.00
Units bet 237
Units returned 331

However, the above system results aside, when I bet by doing the form [I use a price line on my selections per race], I do concentrate on the below $5 price range mostly, as I have never had any success above that price.