Yeah but longterm the LOT is 20.34% for last start winners within 45 days who also won their second last start. I'm sure this could be improved with further filters to lay the selections.

If the LOT is 20%, and you offered 10% more than the tote, what would the new LOT be?

10%

Ah ok so it is like that.

By 10% better than tote I assume you mean say the horse is $4.00, you offer $4.40? If it were 10% better expressed as their ACTUAL percentage, then 10% more than $4.00 (which is 25%) would be $6.50 (which is 15%). Couldn't do that, b/c the odds offered would be too long. Like if a horse was $9.00 (11%) you'd have to offer 100/1 (1%).

No you'd only offer up to $4.40 on a $4.00 shot, but would not have to offer 10% in every case. So your profit would be better than estimated.

Some, though, you may have to offer more than the 10%. I have backed horses on BFair far more than 10% above the tote.

I guess an alternative is not to attempt to lay them, but instead (assuming they are under a price of say $5.0) to back the top three or four market chances around them, basically eliminating the roughies. That'll prob. be a better way long term, don't you think?

A loss of 20% on turnover means that your total dividends represent 80 cents in the dollar, so increasing the average dividend by 10% means that your new total dividends represent 88 cents in the dollar. Therefore your new LOT is 12% of turnover.

Cheers,
QFB

QFB,

How can that be, if my LOT is 20%, and suddenly the TAB takeout rises by another 10%, then my LOT is 30% not 22%.

Hi Chrome,

If by saying the TAB takeout rises by another 10% in your NEW example, you mean that the dividends paid out reduce by 10% (and these are NOT the same thing), then a 10% reduction in dividend payot for a punter experiencing a 20% LOT would have the effect of that punter experiencing a new LOT of 28%.

An illustration:
CURRENT OUT $100
CURRENT DIVS $80
CURRENT LOT 20%

becomes:
NEW OUT $100 (Same)
NEW DIVS $72 ($80 - 10% = $80 - $8)
NEW LOT 28%

That's the way I view it anyway.

Cheers again,
QFB

Just to confuse it further, 10% added on to a $4 shot is $4.30, not $4.40.
The horse is 3/1, add .3/1 (10%) gives you 3.3/1 or $4.30.

Pretty academic as I've managed to lay horses on Betfair less than tote price & also more than 10% longer than bookies best price.