G'day Chrome, I have something which I need stats on. You're a great help to everyone who asks, I for one appreciate you taking the time to query our crappy little systems. Thanks very much for doing that all the time.

This one I am thinking of is to find LAY horses. Four categories, could you tell me the number of selns and LOT for them?



They are -

1 - Last start winners, not resuming from a spell.
2 - Horses who have won their last two runs, not resuming.
3 - Horses who have won their last three runs, not resuming.
4 - Last start winners who have won another one in their last four, not resuming.

Thanks.

Duritz

Hi Duritz,

I've received more than my share of help over the years from many generous forum members, so I'm more than happy to return what I can to the "community" providing I have the tools to do it.

1 - Last start winners, not resuming from a spell.
Selections 30,471
Strike Rate 14.28%
Loss On Turnover -16.77%

2 - Horses who have won their last two runs, not resuming.
Selections 6,549
Strike Rate 17.77%
Loss On Turnover -21.04%

3 - Horses who have won their last three runs, not resuming.
Selections 1,560
Strike Rate 21.47%
Loss On Turnover -15.90%

4 - Last start winners who have won another one in their last four, not resuming.

A little hard for me given my DB format, might have to get back to you on that one.

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Sweet thanks for that. 21% LOT for those who've won their last two. Interesting.

Thanks again Chrome. Don't worry about category four, that's not a worry.

Duritz.

Some pretty decent LOT's there Duritz. I think I'm thinking what you're thinking. Now where's yesterday's form guide.

Warwick Farm Race 8 11 Never Sad -
Morphettville Race 7 3 Rather Grand -
Morphettville Race 6 1 Lord Braemar -
Morphettville Race 3 8 Royal Image $5.10
Morphettville Race 3 4 Kelmark -
Morphettville Race 2 5 Kelcezza -
Morphettville Race 2 2 Telite -
Moonee Valley Race 6 2 Super Elegant -
Moonee Valley Race 5 4 Renewable -
Moonee Valley Race 5 1 Lieutenant $1.70
Eagle Farm Race 8 6 Semagic -
Eagle Farm Race 2 1 Son Of Dane -
Eagle Farm Race 1 3 Picabelle -
Belmont Race 7 8 Hecatomb -
Belmont Race 6 2 Salisbury Street $4.00
Belmont Race 2 1 Bon Argent -

Bets 16
Return $10.80
Loss 5.20
32.50% LOT (ching ching)

Let's say to get matched, you had to offer 10% better than TAB prices, then the LOT is still 25.75% or (POT).

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Just one query. Duritz asked for horses with 2 or 3 wins in a row, but are all of the wins after a spell? For instance, does the form have to be 2x11 or 3111 or something or is form like 41x1 or 11x1 counted?

After looking at the last couple of Saturdays results, I think one thing you might want to look at is deleting races with more than one qualifier.

Sportz as long as they're not resuming, it doesn't matter if the wins cross over preps. The theory's the same - the mugs in the TAB see two ones next to the name, they back it. If it's first up though, they can be turned off, esp. if the wins were a longer distance. The mugs do pick that bit up.

There's one selection in SOuth Africa tonight, R6 #6. I might lay it for something small if I'm still up then...

Just had a look back at Feb 5. You wouldn't have done too well that day. A few real shorties with two straight wins got up.

OK. Any further research is appreciated. I don't keep back guides. Of course some will win, but if they're real shorties then it's not too bad.