It might sound crazy, but I love Puerta. He was one of my biggest money makers for '05. However, he deserved everything he got.

I think we should create a discussion thread for ATP Tour '06. Theres always lots to talk about when it comes to tennis as there are so many players and tournaments. I think we should keep this thread for selections with writeups as it might start to take a while to sort through the thread to find selections. Thoughts?

Great idea.

I was going to report my results on a weekly basis. So maybe 1 thread for tips, 1 for discussion and 1 for results.
Leave it to you to organize.

K

Tomas Berdych wins 7-6 4-6 6-1

Had a bit on Berdych.

Good to see he had a strong third set :)

Anything else notable for tonight Betsy?

8-1, +4.42 Units (ROI 32.1%, SR 89%)
 

Taylor Dent over Thomas Johansson @ $1.704

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.42 Units

Just putting the profit from Berdych's win over Murray into this one. Like last season, Dent has begun the season in great form, easily accounting for Djokovic and Schukin. In contrast Johansson, who has also played both Djokovic and Schukin, seemed to struggle. I think the fact that the match is indoors favours Dent more than Johansson. His serve and volley game seems to be firing on all cylinders at Burswood Dome. Johansson is also struggling with a foot problem and has been bed ridden for the last few days (whenever he's not on the practise court). Overall, going by their last two matches, I can't see Dent losing this one.

Good luck lads

Hrbaty won 3-6 6-4 6-1

Looks although despite losing the first set Hrbaty finished much the stronger.

Great pick Betsy.

Too late for me to get on Dent, not sure I would have the confidence to do so anyway. The time difference here is annoying at the moment.

Dent is *4-3 at the moment so looks like the people who choose it did well.

Nothing else takes me fancy today which frustrates me after Berdych and Hrbaty last night but i must learn to stay away if im not convinced by any bets!

8-2, +4.00 Units
 

After being up a break in the first, Dent loses 7-6 2-6 6-3

As talked about earlier, considering playing Davydenko over Volandri

ATP 5th January - Doha
 

Nikolay Davydenko over Fillipo Volandri @ $1.21

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Not really much to write about here, karla summed it up well this morning. Davydenko is the superior player on this surface, and although Volandri has already had more wins on hardcourt in '06 than he did in '05 he poses no threat to Davydenko in my opinion. I see Davydenko winning this match 85% of the time, therefore $1.21 is value.

Good luck and Happy Punting

Poor Nikolai lost 6:3 6:4, it is lesson for future that Russians like to loose when odds are very low on them :) Do they have Betfair accounts? :)

Looking at these 2 bets thats have taken my fancy what do you guys thinks?

Moya to beat Phau @ 1.36

Moya might not be the player he was but surely to can overcome a player who mainly plays on the Challenger tour and has had 2 easy matches to come these far.

Also looking at Ljubicic over Muller. Muller has had some good plays on hard courts in the past year or so but surely not enough to beat Ljubicic who seems to be one of the best players outside of grandslams especially on hard courts. Can't really got a solid price on betfair at the moment so will wait to see how the market pans out.
Volandri beating Davydenko is a horrible freak result that you can just never account for. Glad I was at work while the match took place otherwise I might have lost a bit on Davydenko.

8-3, +2.50 Units
 

Davydenko loses 6-3 6-4

Wow, didn't see that coming! I've learnt my lesson.

That cuts this weeks profit right down to +2.5 units.

I will post my plays if I come across any, todays card doesnt do much for me

Lets do it!
 

Jarkko Nieminen over Florent Serra @ $1.48

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Not much time to give a write up however Nieminen is the superior player here. There is no questioning his form as he has had a tougher run to the QF, beating Mathieu and Mayer. Serra, although a claycourter, has posted a couple of good results on hard, but has lacked consistancy in his results. Although beating Robredo, Serra was getting beaten by Llodra before he retired. Nieminen is much better on hardcourt than both Robredo and Llodra and should prove too much for the Frenchman.

My only concern is the h2h record. Serra seems to have troubled Jarkko in the past, but this match is on hardcourt and I can't see Jarkko giving up this opportunity to make the semis

This is possibly the last play of the week

Betsy do you know score?

6:4 Serra and 4:2 Serra in second, so good night another lost

Very bad result with Volandri (0-9) on hard beating Davydenko (#5) in world.

I should have 4 selections today, but as the favs are going down this week, I will be a cautious and give today a miss.

Hate this first week anyway.

Good Luck to anyone having a go.

Karla

You are one of many people to get sucked in by a fake score. Jarkko won the second set 7-6 and was never down a break.

Nevermind, Serra still went on to win 6-2 in the third.

I can't believe I've pulled a profit out of this garbage week of tennis

and they played 3rd set about 10 minutes? what a joke

Going for 2 bets i mentioned earlier

Moya to beat Phau @ 1.36
Ljubicic to beat Muller @ 1.38

Suprised at the slightly better odds on Ljubicic even though he is playing a tougher match its hard to see anyone bar the top players troubling him on a hardcourt.

Hard luck on Niemenen, the strange results can't keep continuing for long.

C Moya d B Phau 64 46 61
I Ljubicic d G Muller 61 63

Moya just about made it and Ljubicic cruised.

This gives me confidence to get big on Ljubicic to beat Vliegen. Although Vliegen has good results this week and the capacity to cause a shock I cannot see Ljubicic losing this one. He was 8-1 in semis last year. I think he has about the same chance to win as Federer does against Monfils so it makes sense to take about 1.25 on Ljubicic rather then 1.06 on Federer which doesnt really offer any value. At the business end of a tournament i can't see Ljubicic losing and although Vliegen is dangerous it could be a lot harder for Ljubicic.

Haven't yet taken the bet waiting to see if i can improve on 1.25.

Taken Ljubicic @ 1.23 Odds were shortening so got on before it got any shorter.

Anyone else feel this is a solid bet?

Ljuba should take this but strange result with schrichaphan today.

Morning guys,

Just a reminder that we now have a DISCUSSION Thread for the selections posted in this thread. So could we please place any questions (like the ones above) in the Discussion: ATP Tour Thread.

Cheers

Ivan Ljubicic over Kristof Vliegen @ $1.23

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

If you had asked me who Vliegen was prior to this tournament I wouldn't be able to tell you much. The 23 year old Belgian has come from nowhere to post numerous upsets this week, suprising many on his way to the SF. However, tonight he comes up against one of the best hardcourt players going around, Ivan Ljubicic. Theres not really much use going through Ivan's accomplishments during '05 as most who follow the tennis would already know the staggering performaces he executed throughout the season. Forget the fact that Ivan dropped a set against Vanek, they had been hitting together that week and Vanek may have become used to Ivan's style of play. It should be noted that the big serving Croat only lost one semifinal out of nine last year and I can't see him losing this one to the little known Belgian, Kristof Vliegen. Ljubicic in two.

Good luck

Serra over Malisse @ 3.00

Just have a feeling this is an even match up and with the underdogs winning matches this week it has to make sense to take Serra at these odds. Malisse could out power him but there is a good chance as always with Malisse he could have a poor match or, if the match is tight he may crack under pressure. This is may about taking the value bet rather then being sure Serra will win.

Ljubicic Rain Delayed - Currently 3-1
 

Florent Serra over Xavier Malisse @ $2.94

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.22 Units

All reasoning for this bet is in the discussion thread. Basically, Xavier's win over Berdych looks good on paper but was not as impressive as the scoreline suggests. The quality of the Hrbaty/Serra match was much higher than the Berdych/Malisse match, which ended with Berdych losing the plot (not Malisse winning the match). Serra has a much greater chance than the odds predict and I would say that Malisse should be no more than a 55-45 favourite here.

Serra wins 6-3 6-4

6-3 3-6 7-6
 

Ljubo won in three sets

Week in Review
 

First Week
 

Brilliant result from Serra and Ljubicic. Vliegen is certainly one to look out for. Had huge 5 units on Ljubicic and 1.5 on Serra

Leaves me 6-1 in my first week of serious betting. 5.83 units up!

ATP 9th January - Auckland
 

Stanislas Wawrinka over Tomas Zib - $1.581

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

$1.60 is available at TAB NSW but I don't have an account with them

Tomas Zib has lost his last eight ATP Tour matches, with six of them being played on hardcourt. He hasn't won an ATP singles match since August 2005 and I can't see him breaking that streak today. Wawrinka is an up and coming player and at 20 years old is on the improve. In '05 Wawrinka posted the majority of his results on clay, however when he did venture onto hardcourt he showed some positive signs. With wins over Ferrero, Puerta, Serra and Grosjean all coming on hardcourt I'm surprised that he doesn't play more tennis on hard. Coming off a tough three set loss to Tommy Haas (7-5 in the third), Wawrinka should prove too much for the old Czech, who should post his ninth straight ATP tour loss before the days end.

Good luck and happy punting
Betsy

Ferrero over Gucionne @ 1.31 (argh its 1.34 now) 1 unit

Should have started but its raining i hear. Hoping the superior player wins here and isn't too rusty. Might take 3 sets but i think Ferrero will pull through.

Good luck everyone.

Wawrinka wins 6-3 6-4

No more bets today

ATP Tour '06 Record

Week One: 10-4, +2.68 Units (ROI 15.4%)
Week Two: 2-0, +0.61 Units (ROI 61%)

YTD: 12-4, +3.28 Units (ROI 18%)

*Ljubicic's win was counted in week 2

Gucionne won in 3. Ferrero must have been rusty.

Well done on Wawrinka, a much better bet!

Acasuso over C Rochus @ 1.78

Discussed in the other thread, Acasuso should have too much power and shot making ability for C Rochus to trouble him.

Ferrer is into 1.3 so not gonna bother unless someone excepts my 1.38 but i doubt that will happen.

Edit: just got Moodie over Minar @ 1.64

Really only the good odds that took me here. Betsy's advice is more then often very good and I like Moodie to beat a player who has more then his fair share of first round loses.

Good luck guys hope to wake up to some good results!

ATP Tour 10th January - Auckland R1
 

Wesley Moodie over Ivo Minar @ $1.602

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Wesley Moodie really finished well last year on hardcourt. The big serving South African won his first ATP singles title in October, where he beat the likes of Ancic, Nieminen, Youzhny and Stepanek, who are all quality players on hardcourt. We can let him off the hook for his loss to Bjorkman in his last hardcourt match for '05 as this was one day after his breakthrough win in Japan. Since the Us Open Moodie is 8-3 on hard and has been making huge inroads on consolidating a place in the top 25.

Moodie comes up against a challenger level player in Ivo Minar. Minar, although playing out of his skin in Australia last year, finished off the year playing challengers. Since the US Open Minar has posted one win on hardcourt out of seven matches. As it is early in the season, I'd normally steer clear of a match where one player has played some Qualifiers to get into the main draw, as this extra match practise is very helpful. However, Minar struggled against third rate players while attempting to qualify and these results have only confirmed my thoughts on Minar's lackluster form.

My only concern was Moodie's shoulder problems, as he called for the trainer against Monfils where he lost 76 64. This may be the only reason Moodie is ~$1.60, otherwise I don't know why these odds are so generous.

Good luck lads

Moodie retires at 2-1 in the first.

Bet is refunded

YTD: 12-4, +3.28 Units
 

Week Two: 2-0, +0.61 Units (ROI 61%)

James Blake over Carlos Moya @ $1.74

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

After a dissapointing start to the new year, James Blake comes up against the old Spaniard, Carlos Moya. Since August '05 Blake has accumulated a 22-4 win/loss record on hardcourt, beating the likes of Nadal, Berdych, Stepanek and Robredo. In contrast, other than his win in Chennai early last year, Moya had a lackluster year away from clay. He went 0-7 against players inside the top 25 last year on hardcourt and lost in the first round at this same tournament.

Both players faced capable first round opponents on their way to the 2nd round however I believe Blake had the tougher opponent of the two. Moya struggled to beat an out of form Grosjean, needing three sets to beat the Frenchman, whereas Blake outgunned Sanguinetti in two sets on Monday night. Blake should come into this matchup refreshed, after having Tuesday off. Conversely, Moya played until roughly 6.00pm local time today and now must get himself up for tomorrow mornings match (just flying in from India doesn't help either). Overall I see Blake getting this one in two sets, however, with the Australian Open being less than a week away we can never be sure of a players motivation, therefore I'm only going small on this matchup.

Good luck all
Betsy

Unbelievable set of results when i woke up this morning. I just knew Andreev would beat Gasquet and thought some of the other but why don't i ever have the confidence to go against the favourites?

I think Moya and Ferrer (the bet that was never taken) were the only favourites to win. So many upsets, but this is what i think happens on a week before Grandslam.

O Rochus over Herynch @ 1.51

Rochus typcially does well at this time of year and cruised through his first round match. He leads the H2H 2-0 with beating Hernych at this tournament this last year 6-3 6-1 and Hernych has done nothing since to make me think he will change it this year. Motivation is always a question this week but Rochus doesn't seem the type to let this bother him.

Ferrer over Sluiter @ 1.58

Same reasons as the match yesterday, why is Ferrer so under rated he is Top 20? Maybe im just getting on because i was annoyed to miss out yesterday when i was convinced he would win. Head to head is 3-0 to Ferrer. I would have though Ferrer would be 1.40 at the best and is the type of player who eats up points in every event he plays to climb the rankings (like Davydenko)


Murray over Ancic @ 2.24

Suprised at the odds would have thought everyone would get on Murray in this country which always explains awful odds on Henman. Ancic has great potential but it failing to fulfil it really and 2.24 has to be good when it looks an even match at best...especially with Ancic in poor form.

Blake is 1.62 here, not going to take that!

Please give me better results tonight i'm 0-2 this week and down 3 units!