Hi, K.V.

The dividends on Betfair are invariably better than the TAB because Betfair does not have a "take out" (except a small amount based solely on the the profit of a bet) whilst the TAB takes out 16% in every $1 wagered.

I'm assuming my Lay divvy with Betfair is 33% higher than the TAB divvy. So if a horse pays $3.00 with the TAB, then my assumption is that I laid it with Betfair at $4.00. This means that whilst the TAB pays the punter $3.00 I pay him $4.00 which is 33% higher then the TAB. 33% is only an arbitrary figure, and quite often you might be able to lay a horse, especially if it is the fave, close to the TAB price. In reality 33% might be too generous but when I'm looking at a system I tend to be somewhat conservative.

Hope this explains it clearly.
Michael.

Thanks, it does.

One winner of $3.10 from yesterday's seven selections. To date there have been 98 selections for 18 winners paying a total of $59.80.

Eight selections today:
Gosford R8 no.2 - Great Time ($3.20)
Mornington R6 no.5 - On The Green ($3.50)
Mornington R7 no.6 - New Kid In Town ($3.50)
Mornington R8 no.6 - Fearless Waters ($3.50)
Rocky R2 no.3 - Morning Glory ($2.50)
Rocky R3 no.2 - Bold Red ($3.00)
Rocky R7 no.1 - Na Moos ($3.50)
Geraldton R5 no.1 - Recalcitrant ($3.50)

A terrible day yesterday. There were three winners totalling $10.40 from eight selections. To date there have been 106 selections for 21 winners totalling $70.20.

Four selections today:
Albury R4 no.4 - Mooncoin Magic ($3.60)
Moonee Valley R4 no.3 - Caterwaul ($3.00)
Eagle Farm R8 no.1 - Gang ($3.60)
Gawler R7 no.5 - Honey Gee ($2.80)

Hi Michaelg,
I have run my data base over many different senerioes to weed out false Favs over 20,000 races & found that no matter what one does , those darn false Favs still win 20% of the time & we need to get it down to 15% if possible.

One False Fav thing I came accross is Favs in Maiden races starting from barrier 1 had only a 15% SR .
I dont know why , maybe they dont like being squeezed or touched.

Cheers.

Yesterday the four selections were beaten. To date there have been 110 selections for 21 winners paying $70.20.

Twelve selections today:
Rosehill R3 no.4 - Palabiro ($3.00)
Rosehill R4 no.2 - Alike ($3.80)
Caulfield R1 no.6 - Millie Rose ($3.00)
Dombeen R3 no.5 - Mr Sensible ($2.80)
Dombeen R8 no.2 - Step Right In ($3.20)
Cheltenham R2 no.1 - Balsamico ($3.20)
Cheltenham R3 no.3 - Nedrullah ($3.50)
Cheltenham R5 no.4 - Chemin ($3.80)
Cheltenham R7 no.1 - Shablec ($2.20)
Toowoomba R6 no.7 - Dance Sally Dance ($3.20)
Hobart R1 no.2 - Smashed ($2.50)
Grafton R6 no.5 - Daysauvage ($3.40)

I'm assuming my Lay divvy with Betfair is 33% higher than the TAB divvy. So if a horse pays $3.00 with the TAB, then my assumption is that I laid it with Betfair at $4.00.


Hi Michaelg

The above statement suggests to me that you don't have a betfair a/c. Shame, because you don't need to got that far over to lay horses, and you should be making a lot of money.

Any chance of putting the percentage for barriers 1 to 8 so we can put that in context. I mean if the other barriers have some sort of consistency above the 15% your data has some merit, if they are all over the place maybe it's chance maybe it's not.

Cheers,
KV

Hi, Mark.

I do have a Betfair account, but have got almost nothing in it due to a 100% loss rate in test cricket and Australian Idol. I realise the 33% premium is probably being over-generous but I like to exaggerate the divvy if testing "on paper".

You're right - if I had actually laid them on Betfair I'm sure the profit would be quite substantial but I can't wait at my PC for the actual race. Maybe if the method proves to be profitable in the long term then I might lay them on Betfair if/when I can legally deposit some money in my account.

Hobart R1 has just been run, and our selection started odds-on but didn't even run a place.

From yesterday's 12 selections there were 2 winners paying $8.10.

I should have realised it from the beginning of the system that horses resuming from a spell are given few points if any, from the CF, TIM and DLR neural categories. Checking this, there have been 15 selections resuming from a spell, and 4 of them have won paying $12.40. Without these, there have been 96 selections for 20 winners paying $63.80 which is an improvement on the overall results. So from today I'll omit them.

Three selections today;
Colac R9 no.2 - Straight Legs ($3.20)
Albany R4 no.2 - Great Beau ($2.25)
Albany R7 no.3 - Nostoc ($2.80)

Yesterday was a terrible day. As its going from bad to worse I'll stop for now. Selecting winners, not losers seems to be the way to go at the moment.