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Thanks Twobets. Hope we all get a chance to profit from them.
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Haven't looked on the forum for a few days Pixie but will watch with interest tomorrow. I actually backed Exalted Time last week so in a way am glad you didn't post your selections last week as it may have turned me off!
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Well done Pug. Exalted Time just got there from memory :mad:
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Selections: June 9th
Quiet day due to the weather in some areas. Best of luck. Results posted tomorrow night. There will be selections next Monday.
E_FM04-03 Aim So High E_FM04-05 Bitabiff E_FM06-05 Black Ink GCST05-05 Ebony Lad GCST06-08 Eve Angelene GCST09-12 Ozjuria M_V_06-10 Incentate M_V_07-07 Serene Prince M_V_08-04 Waitui Angel MORP02-05 Tic Toc Tac MORP03-13 He's A Class Act SW_H06-05 Magical Slice SW_H08-08 Thomas Henry SW_H09-07 Lieffy SW_H10-05 Kyiv Prince BLMT to follow |
A troll of a day so far
 BLMT03-03 Coalseam BLMT07-01 Triple Dee BLMT08-13 Stringmaster |
Results: June 9th
Wow. Another day like that and we're toast.
 ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLMT03-03 Coalseam 4.60 ... LOST +1.00 E_FM04-03 Aim So High 8.60 ... WON -7.60 E_FM04-05 Bitabiff 5.60 ... LOST +1.00 E_FM06-05 Black Ink 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 M_V_07-07 Serene Prince 7.80 ... LOST +1.00 MORP02-05 Tic Toc Tac 8.60 ... WON -7.60 MORP03-13 He's A Class Act 7.00 ... LOST +1.00 SW_H06-05 Magical Slice 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 SW_H08-08 Thomas Henry 3.00 ... LOST +1.00 SW_H09-07 Lieffy 7.20 ... WON -6.20 Results April 21st - June 9th ---------- Number of Selections: 110.00 Observed Successes: 97.00 Observed Strike Rate: 88.18% Expected Successes: 88.81 Expected Strike Rate: 80.74% Advantage: 9.22% Success due to luck: 1.56% Profit: +14.70 units Commission @ 5%: -4.85 units Net Profit: +9.85 units Net ROI: +8.95% :( ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT07-01 Triple Dee 36.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT08-13 Stringmaster 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST05-05 Ebony Lad 24.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST06-08 Eve Angelene 11.50 ... LOST -1.00 GCST09-12 Ozjuria 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 M_V_06-10 Incentate 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 M_V_08-04 Waitui Angel 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 SW_H10-05 Kyiv Prince 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - June 9th ---------- Number of Selections: 132.00 Observed Successes: 11.00 Observed Strike Rate: 8.33% Expected Successes: 6.60 Expected Strike Rate: 5.00% Advantage: 66.70% Success due to luck: 16.57% Profit: +90.00 units Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units Net Profit: +78.90 units Net ROI: +59.77% :) ==================== |
Selections: June 11th
Let's hope for a better day today. Looks pretty busy :)
BLNA04-04 Admiral Halsey BLNA05-08 Sabre Knight BLNA05-12 Our Piccolo BLNA06-01 Cool Scene BLNA07-09 Charm Of Rossano BLNA07-14 Steorra CAMP06-01 Hunter Hermitage CAMP06-05 Beltana CAMP06-06 Gradabra CAMP07-14 Velvet Revolver CAMP08-05 Al Chergar CAMP08-13 The General CAMP09-07 South Saigon CAMP09-15 Walnaring Dream CAMP10-04 Seymour Bush CAMP10-09 Mookta Lad E_FM01-09 Rum Dum E_FM04-11 Deception Bay M_BR05-01 Forgotten Dreams M_BR05-05 Corridor M_BR06-06 Son Of Spartacus TOWN03-02 Easy Plan TOWN04-07 Power Express RAND04-08 Lion Again RAND06-10 Brookton Flash RAND07-01 Miss Right Note RAND08-10 Fat Possum |
Correction to selections
With the late scratching of Ratings Winner in Race 7 at Ballina, the following are NO LONGER SELECTIONS.
BLNA07-09 Charm Of Rossano BLNA07-14 Steorra |
Results: June 11th
 That was a day worth waiting for. Clean sweep of 16 from 16 in the "11.00 and less" division, so we've recovered nicely from Saturdays accidents. No winners from the other division, but you need to factor in a long run of outs when your backing at those prices. Prices from the B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLNA06-01 Cool Scene 3.85 ... LOST +1.00 CAMP06-01 Hunter Hermitage 7.40 ... LOST +1.00 CAMP06-05 Beltana 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 CAMP08-13 The General 4.80 ... LOST +1.00 CAMP09-07 South Saigon 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 CAMP10-04 Seymour Bush 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 CAMP10-09 Mookta Lad 8.60 ... LOST +1.00 E_FM04-11 Deception Bay 10.00 ... LOST +1.00 M_BR05-01 Forgotten Dreams 8.00 ... LOST +1.00 M_BR05-05 Corridor 5.70 ... LOST +1.00 M_BR06-06 Son Of Spartacus 7.00 ... LOST +1.00 RAND04-08 Lion Again 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 RAND07-01 Miss Right Note 4.60 ... LOST +1.00 RAND08-10 Fat Possum 7.40 ... LOST +1.00 TOWN03-02 Easy Plan 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 TOWN04-07 Power Express 8.40 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - June 11th ---------- Number of Selections: 126.00 Observed Successes: 113.00 Observed Strike Rate: 89.68% Expected Successes: 101.65 Expected Strike Rate: 80.68% Advantage: 11.16% Success due to luck: 0.09% Profit: +30.70 units Commission @ 5%: -5.65 units Net Profit: +25.05 units Net ROI: +19.88% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLNA04-04 Admiral Halsey 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 BLNA05-08 Sabre Knight 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLNA05-12 Our Piccolo 50.00 ... LOST -1.00 CAMP06-06 Gradabra 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 CAMP07-14 Velvet Revolver 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 CAMP08-05 Al Chergar 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 CAMP09-15 Walnaring Dream 40.00 ... LOST -1.00 E_FM01-09 Rum Dum 13.50 ... LOST -1.00 RAND06-10 Brookton Flash 40.00 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - June 11th ---------- Number of Selections: 142.00 Observed Successes: 11.00 Observed Strike Rate: 7.75% Expected Successes: 7.14 Expected Strike Rate: 5.03% Advantage: 54.11% Success due to luck: 22.54% Profit: +80.00 units Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units Net Profit: +68.90 units Net ROI: +48.52% :) ==================== |
Selections: June 16th
Deja vu. Another Saturday with minimal selections and abandoned meetings. Let's hope for a different result from last Saturday. Best of luck.
GCST04-03 Gavaskar GCST07-10 Latin Idol GCST08-02 Noreil IPSW05-02 Reverenza IPSW08-11 Grizz KILM07-08 Rory's Raida KILM08-09 Forest Baby KILM10-01 Heritage Port MORP04-02 Royal Blevic MORP04-07 Goodie Too Shoes MORP05-05 Maduro MORP07-03 Taos Pleasure MORP08-04 Jillimarg SANH02-03 Isle Of Majorca SANH07-11 Millie Rose BLMT and TWBA to follow. |
BLMT03-03 Bold Ransom BLMT04-03 Action Shot BLMT05-04 Lawbook BLMT08-02 Storm Closure TWBA coming soon :) |
TWBA07-09 South Of The Border TWBA07-13 One For The Road TWBA08-12 Nagem TWBA09-06 Every Which Way |
Results: June 16th
An up and down day with a 5 unit profit in one price division and a 5.1 unit loss in the other. If only the Gold Coast had been washed out ;)
We're still going along nicely with the gross ROI of both divisions still above their respective advantage figure. Let's see how we go over the next two weeks, after which the trial ends. Hope you're finding it interesting :) Prices from the B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLMT03-03 Bold Ransom 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 BLMT04-03 Action Shot 7.60 ... LOST +1.00 BLMT05-04 Lawbook 6.40 ... LOST +1.00 GCST07-10 Latin Idol 5.70 ... WON -4.70 GCST08-02 Noreil 9.40 ... WON -8.40 IPSW08-11 Grizz 6.20 ... LOST +1.00 MORP04-02 Royal Blevic 9.60 ... LOST +1.00 MORP08-04 Jillimarg 8.20 ... LOST +1.00 SANH02-03 Isle Of Majorca 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 TWBA08-12 Nagem 5.50 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - June 16th ---------- Number of Selections: 136.00 Observed Successes: 121.00 Observed Strike Rate: 88.97% Expected Successes: 109.88 Expected Strike Rate: 80.79% Advantage: 10.12% Success due to luck: 0.23% Profit: +25.60 units Commission @ 5%: -6.05 units Net Profit: +19.55 units Net ROI: +14.37% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT08-02 Storm Closure 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST04-03 Gavaskar 17.00 ... LOST -1.00 IPSW05-02 Reverenza 12.00 ... LOST -1.00 KILM07-08 Rory's Raida 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 KILM08-09 Forest Baby 18.00 ... WON +17.00 KILM10-01 Heritage Port 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP04-07 Goodie Too Shoes 23.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP05-05 Maduro 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 MORP07-03 Taos Pleasure 27.00 ... LOST -1.00 SANH07-11 Millie Rose 18.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA07-09 South Of The River* 28.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA07-13 One For The Road 24.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA09-06 Every Which Way 27.00 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - June 16th ---------- Number of Selections: 155.00 Observed Successes: 12.00 Observed Strike Rate: 7.74% Expected Successes: 7.82 Expected Strike Rate: 5.04% Advantage: 53.47% Success due to luck: 20.89% Profit: +85.00 units Commission @ 5%: -12.00 units Net Profit: +73.00 units Net ROI: +47.09% :) ==================== * For some reason I entered the name "South Of The Border" when I posted the selections instead of "South Of The River". |
Selections: June 23rd
A busy looking day except for Benalla with it's Maiden only card. There's some early starts so here's the early ones, with the others to follow. Best of luck. :)
E_FM02-09 Daring Fortune E_FM02-12 Majorca E_FM05-03 Tellem E_FM06-05 Cinque Cento E_FM08-02 Hard To Catch E_FM08-11 Warrior Trader NCLE03-03 All Time Champion RAND03-08 Hesperia RAND05-01 Letter Of Intent RAND06-03 Danasierra RAND08-04 Agua Corriendo RAND10-07 Hadaaf BLMT, GCST, M_V_, MORP and TWBA to follow |
Well done Angry Pixie, you seem to be doing fairly well consistently.
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Quote:
Thanks Chrome. Plugging away. :) |
GCST04-03 Carino A La Vida
GCST04-08 General Ledger GCST05-05 He's A Harry GCST07-07 Pacific Belle M_V_03-02 Molly's Folly M_V_03-03 Paris Return M_V_06-10 Qui Lassie M_V_06-13 Cut In Stone MORP03-03 Hamish The Brave MORP05-10 Dekoda Gold MORP07-12 Sweet Julia BLMT and TWBA still to come. :) |
BLMT03-03 Men At Work
BLMT03-08 Woodala BLMT06-06 Bold Ransom BLMT08-05 Money Exchange TWBA03-02 Onedin Line TWBA03-07 Taabinga Lass TWBA03-11 Chain Of Thought TWBA04-12 Pickason TWBA06-07 Devasyn TWBA06-11 In A Whirl May not be able to post the results until tomorrow night. All the best. |
Results: June 23rd
A pleasing day with both price divisions ending with a decent profit. :)
TWBA selections have been excluded from the results as the meeting was abandoned after Race 2. Prices from the B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLMT08-05 Money Exchange 9.60 ... LOST +1.00 E_FM02-12 Majorca 7.40 ... LOST +1.00 GCST04-08 General Ledger 8.80 ... LOST +1.00 GCST07-07 Pacific Belle 5.60 ... LOST +1.00 M_V_03-02 Molly's Folly 6.00 ... WON -5.00 NCLE03-03 All Time Champion 5.80 ... LOST +1.00 RAND05-01 Letter Of Intent 9.00 ... LOST +1.00 RAND06-03 Danasierra 7.20 ... LOST +1.00 RAND10-07 Hadaaf 10.50 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - June 23rd ---------- Number of Selections: 145.00 Observed Successes: 129.00 Observed Strike Rate: 88.97% Expected Successes: 117.24 Expected Strike Rate: 80.86% Advantage: 10.03% Success due to luck: 0.18% Profit: +28.6 units Commission @ 5%: -6.45 units Net Profit: +22.15 units Net ROI: +15.27% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT03-03 Men At Work 11.50 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT03-08 Woodala 21.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT06-06 Bold Ransom 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 E_FM02-09 Daring Fortune 16.50 ... WON +15.50 E_FM05-03 Tellem 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 E_FM06-05 Cinque Cento 15.50 ... LOST -1.00 E_FM08-02 Hard To Catch 14.50 ... LOST -1.00 E_FM08-11 Warrior Trader 15.50 ... LOST -1.00 GCST04-03 Carino A La Vida 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST05-05 He's A Harry 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 M_V_03-03 Paris Return 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 M_V_06-10 Qui Lassie 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 M_V_06-13 Cut In Stone 18.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP03-03 Hamish The Brave 28.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP05-10 Dekoda Gold 24.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP07-12 Sweet Julia 12.50 ... WON +11.50 RAND03-08 Hesperia 17.50 ... LOST -1.00 RAND08-04 Agua Corriendo 18.00 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - June 23rd ---------- Number of Selections: 173.00 Observed Successes: 14.00 Observed Strike Rate: 8.09% Expected Successes: 8.77 Expected Strike Rate: 5.07% Advantage: 59.71% Success due to luck: 14.45% Profit: +96.00 units Commission @ 5%: -13.45 units Net Profit: +82.55 units Net ROI: +47.71% :) ==================== Next Saturday will be the last day of the trial. |
Pixie, have you been laying/backing these selections or are you just paper trading at the moment? Why I ask this is that with the $11.00 cut off you could get caught depending on what time you place your bet. I say this because Sweet Julia was available to lay between $10 and $11 yesterday for about 5 min before it drifted late.
Therefore going by BAT your day looked really good but doing it manually depending on what time your results could change drastically day to day! Cheers |
BAT is supposed to give you the last traded price, so apparently "if" you backed it just prior to the jump this would be the price. However, people need to be aware that the BAT price is often incorrect. I have compared the downloaded history with BAT prices and it is very often way out.
But over 100's of bets, I'm sure it evens out to be reliable enough for system testing. |
1 Attachment(s)
Hi Pugnosis
I'm only laying the "11.00 or less" selections, and at the moment only for small money. I find I can usually get a feel for the direction of the market (tools with near realtime market updates like Fairbot are essential), so I'll generally put an offer in just below the current highest offer, and tweak it up or down depending on the moves. You'll see this in the attached file "CancelledLays.gif". My first offer of $9.80 on "Sweet Julia" was placed around 16:07 (3 minutes before the scheduled jump), I then tweaked this up to $10.00 at 16:08. The drift continued so the $10.00 offer was cancelled fairly quickly and I placed my final offer of $11.00 within the last two minutes before the scheduled jump. You'll see this offer lapsed in the file "LapsedLays.gif". Using an exchange you could easily place a "stop loss" bid above the $11.00 cut-off mark. So if you layed early and the price drifts you could cover your position. I've done this in the past. I do take your point that but for a couple of keener backers "Sweet Julia" could have started at $11.00 or less, but on the other side of the coin, over the duration of this trial there's been a number of selections that have drifted over the $11.00 mark just before the jump and didn't end up winning the race. These were then recorded in the "11.50 and greater" price division as a loss. Swings and roundabouts :) I've tried to be pretty straight up with the results and have used the B.A.T. prices as these are as close as you're likely to get if you lay the selection right on the jump. As Chrome says, any variances are likely to even out so for system test purposes I reckon they'll do. The prices posted are then available for anybody to check for themselves, and I don't insult anybody's intelligence by making claims of laying at lesser prices. I recieved an e-mail yesterday from another forum member thanking me for yesterdays longshot tips. Can't please all the people all the time I guess ;) Only one week to go. |
Hey Pixie
I hope you didn't take my post as you trying to fudge results. I was just curious that is all. I reckon that this is one of the better threads I have followed and if I had your email address I would have emailed you too with congratulations! With a statistics type background Betfair just intrigues me and I am trying to read the markets to gain an advantage whether it be with trading or straight out backing and laying to get best price. So far there is nothing that is obvious to me! Sweet Julia was just a perfect example for me to ask how you went about using your selections as with a cutoff like you have got their may be a few that might change from back to lay and vice versa. I suppose it will all even out in the end! Keep up the good work as these threads are valuable reading Cheers Pugnosis |
Pug
No I didn't take it that way at all. :) You've highlighted the issue I was having earlier in the thread as to whether I should keep putting these selections up. When you set a limit (just like a speed limit on the road) I think there's a tendency for it to be tested. In this case it looks to me as if the posted price of all the selections are slowly being drawn into the area around $11.00. This is a visual observation only but at a glace our lay accidents are at longer prices, and our backed winners are shorter. I doubt very much that we'll get winners like Cinque Cento at $34.00 and losers like Chief Hennessy at $2.40 whilst the selections are posted publically. I think it's quite likely that some of the selections would have finished in the other price range to the one they did if they were not listed here. Not blowing my own trumpet in saying that just an observation given the 100-150 hits this thread gets on a Saturday morning and early afternoon. The results have become skewed to the centre I think, and some dangerously so :( I think the impatient or inexperienced are probably taking silly prices too early in the betting. The secret really is to get on as late in the piece at possible when the variations in the markets have been evened out. As I said earlier you do get a feel for the moves after you've been laying for a while, though this isn't always true of the provincial markets where some odd moves can take place very late in betting. :mad: Also take advantage of the benefits of using an exchange and protect yourself by "greening-up", or taking a small loss if the market swings against you. Tools like Fairbot and Bet Angel Basic have a "bum covering" button that let's you do this with a single click. Again Pug, it never even crossed my mind that you were having a "go". Anyway it's all about learning from and sharing the experiences of others, which goes hand-in-hand with constructive critisism. I think this point has been lost in some of the other threads. ;) PS: I'm just finishing "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The guy's had way too much time to contemplate his belly button, but does present some eye opening arguments as to the role of luck in the markets. An insightful but over-wordy read. PPS: Thanks for the nice comments too. |
Quote:
Speaking off strange moves, there was a horse called Bankers Lamp in the first race at Cranbourne on Saturday that opened with the books @ $2.70 and blew like a tornado out to $41 and up to $110 with betfair. They very nearly got their fingers burned badly as it ran second. I very nearly scored the bet of the day ;) This sort of thing is happening frighteningly regularly. |
Yep that's a big move alright :) I find the Gold Coast is the worst culprit on a Saturday, but nothing like that.
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Selections: June 30th
Well this is it for "Pixie's Pix" on this forum. As promised the trial ends today, which looks like a bit of a quiet and tricky one. Thanks for you indulgence. Hope you've managed to stay ahead. :)
CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac CHEL05-01 El Seigneur CHEL05-07 Miss Presley CHEL07-10 Silent Action HAWK09-12 Jewel Point MORN06-05 Gold Play MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms MORN06-08 Juivanka MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama MORN08-05 Senor De Lago MORN09-07 Madicon Trail RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow RAND03-07 Grizz RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas SANH08-04 Snappy Tom SANH08-12 General Nediym SCST02-06 Court Adjourned BLMT and TWBA to follow. |
Oops :o
Thought something didn't look quite right. Forgot the Gold Coast and one selection from Sandown. Sorry. Not too late though. GCST06-04 Authoress GCST06-05 Grand Lover GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead GCST09-09 Crackaway SANH06-02 Chiack |
Here's the Belmont selections.
BLMT02-03 Mythalo BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot BLMT05-06 Old Guru BLMT06-06 Metal Power BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder BLMT07-01 Arctic Park BLMT07-08 River Mist TWBA still to come. PS: Suddenly it's turned into a busy day :rolleyes: |
Doesn't look like there are any selections for Toowoomba. :( All the best
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Results: June 30th
Well there you go :)
Arctic Park wrecked the fun but the win of Jewel Point made up for it. I must start backing those long shots :o That's it for the time being. There's something else in the workshop but it's a little way away. Prices from the B.A.T. Gold Play was a scratching. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot 3.45 ... WON -2.45 BLMT05-06 Old Guru 9.80 ... LOST +1.00 BLMT07-01 Arctic Park 10.00 ... WON -9.00 BLMT07-08 River Mist 9.40 ... LOST +1.00 CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 GCST06-04 Authoress 8.20 ... LOST +1.00 GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead 11.00 ... LOST +1.00 MORN06-08 Juivanka 9.00 ... LOST +1.00 MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama 4.60 ... LOST +1.00 RAND03-07 Grizz 9.20 ... LOST +1.00 SANH06-02 Chiack 8.20 ... LOST +1.00 SANH08-12 Corporal Nediym* 8.00 ... LOST +1.00 Results April 21st - June 30th ---------- Number of Selections: 157.00 Observed Successes: 139.00 Observed Strike Rate: 88.54% Expected Successes: 127.01 Expected Strike Rate: 80.90% Advantage: 9.44% Success due to luck: 0.27% Profit: +27.15 units Commission @ 5%: -6.95 units Net Profit: +20.20 units Net ROI: +12.86% :) ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BLMT02-03 Mythalo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT06-06 Metal Power 25.00 ... LOST -1.00 BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder 12.00 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL05-01 El Seigneur 13.50 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL05-07 Miss Presley 22.00 ... LOST -1.00 CHEL07-10 Silent Action 12.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST09-09 Crackaway 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 HAWK09-12 Jewel Point 32.00 ... WON +31.00 MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms 12.50 ... LOST -1.00 MORN08-05 Senor De Lago 21.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORN09-07 Madison Trail 18.50 ... LOST -1.00 RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow 27.00 ... LOST -1.00 RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas 20.00 ... LOST -1.00 SANH08-04 Snappy Tom 15.00 ... LOST -1.00 SCST02-06 Court Adjourned 16.50 ... LOST -1.00 Results April 21st - June 30th ---------- Number of Selections: 188.00 Observed Successes: 15.00 Observed Strike Rate: 7.98% Expected Successes: 9.60 Expected Strike Rate: 5.11% Advantage: 56.26% Success due to luck: 14.61% Profit: +113.00 units Commission @ 5%: -15.05 units Net Profit: +97.95 units Net ROI: +52.10% :D ==================== * I gave Corporal Nediym a promotion when I posted the selections. |
Well done Angry Pixie, it's all good hey ;)
Interesting to note the profit and POT is better by backing the longer horses than laying the shorter ones. Combine them both and you have a pretty good consistent return. |
Thanks Chrome. It's done pretty well for such a simple system. The profit and advantage figures are merging together a bit but I'll be happy if I can keep the lay side around the 10% mark. There'll be better prices now it's not public.
Saturday was one of the best day's on the lay this year. Finished 30.9 units up :D |
Selections: March 8th 2008
Let's blow the cobwebs off and see if this still works. Lay if $11 or less at the jump, otherwise back them. Other venues to follow. :)
E_FM02-13 Beartracker E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason E_FM04-04 Reincarnation FLEM06-02 Magnus FLEM09-06 Orange County FLEM09-09 Count To Zero NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince NCLE09-04 Centover NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle RHIL09-05 Spy Zam |
Selections: March 8th 2008 cont.
BR_H03-04 Delta Devil
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester EHPE06-06 Ivortov EHPE08-04 Kanejake GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist GCST05-05 Tread Lightly GCST06-06 Legally Hot GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset TWBA05-11 Laertes TWBA07-09 But Say |
Doing well so far, Pixie (touch wood).
|
Results: March 8th 2008
Well that still works I guess. The "Lay 11.00 or less" group could have been better but only finished -2.55* units down. The "Back 11.50 or greater" group did well and ended +$19.97* units up. Overall a +17.42* unit profit for the day. Not too bad for an old system. I'll have another go some other day.
 Prices from B.A.T. ==================== Lay 11.00 or less ---------- E_FM02-13 Beartracker 7.40 ... LOST +0.95 E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason 5.50 ... LOST +0.95 E_FM04-04 Reincarnation 8.00 ... LOST +0.95 EHPE06-06 Ivortov 8.80 ... LOST +0.95 EHPE08-04 Kanejake 8.00 ... LOST +0.95 FLEM09-06 Orange County 9.20 ... WON -8.20 GCST05-05 Tread Lightly 10.50 ... LOST +0.95 GCST06-06 Legally Hot 11.00 ... LOST +0.95 NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel 5.00 ... LOST +0.95 NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute 6.20 ... LOST +0.95 NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince 5.80 ... WON -4.80 NCLE09-04 Centover 9.20 ... LOST +0.95 NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle 9.00 ... LOST +0.95 ==================== ==================== Back 11.50 or greater ---------- BR_H03-04 Delta Devil 15.00 ... WON +13.3 BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester 23.00 ... LOST -1.00 FLEM06-02 Magnus 16.00 ... LOST -1.00 FLEM09-09 Count To Zero 13.00 ... LOST -1.00 GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist 11.50 ... LOST -1.00 GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor 42.00 ... LOST -1.00 MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie 75.00 ... LOST -1.00 RHIL09-05 Spy Zam 21.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset 28.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA05-11 Laertes 34.00 ... LOST -1.00 TWBA07-09 But Say 17.50 ... WON +15.67 ==================== * 5% Betfair commission has been deducted from all wins |
Selections: March 15th 2008
Let's push out luck a little more. Other venues to follow.
FLEM02-01 Merlot Now FLEM02-07 Lancettier FLEM07-06 Cargo Cult GEEL01-02 Distraction GEEL08-06 Green Gem K_GR05-05 Catchadane K_GR10-07 I r i s h Myth RHIL01-07 Lancaster Park RHIL04-05 Exinite RHIL05-03 Canary Islands TAR_03-02 Sequenjar |
Selections: March 15th 2008 cont.
CHEL03-05 Gold Lens
CHEL03-09 Shanetty CHEL04-04 Le Niska DOOM01-07 I'm A Leader DOOM01-08 Monashee Knight DOOM02-07 Oh Ruby DOOM03-04 Digging Deep DOOM04-04 Sir Coup DOOM05-05 Fine Cheval DOOM08-11 Spirito Volante GCST05-08 Jakelli GCST06-06 Scent Of Gold GCST07-03 Patties Mate GCST08-01 Teletrader GCST09-04 Norse Code |
Selections: March 15th 2008 cont.
TWBA01-09 Mother Craft
TWBA03-03 Backinaflash TWBA04-03 Casaco That's it for today! |
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