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-   -   Quaddies? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25692)

michaelg 15th December 2012 06:50 AM

Not a bad resuult, Docdapunta.

I should have included Moonee Valley because the outlay was $1,440. The quaddie was won, paying $3,000. It would still have been a losing day.

If every selection was bet to Win, the outlay would have been $114 for a return of $107.50 on Unitab, but $139 on Betfair.

Lord Greystoke 15th December 2012 07:53 AM

Keep all those big quaddies in if you can michaelg??
More food for thought on a bigger plate, I reckon.

Cheers LG

michaelg 15th December 2012 08:56 AM

L.G. if I have time today to do so I will.

moeee 15th December 2012 12:17 PM

I'ld be lucky to afford to spend $1440 in a fortnight
I'ld simply die if I lost that amount in a single wager.
You guys must be rich.

TheSchmile 15th December 2012 01:05 PM

Hi Moeee,

As docdapunter stated, it's all about the Flexi bet, minimum bet in the Moonee valley example is $14.

michaelg 15th December 2012 01:36 PM

I've only been able at the moment to prepare the quaddie selections for the four main meetings. I hope to do the others later.

Rosehill
2, 3, 5, 6, 7
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11
2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 13
Outlay of $2,240

Flemington
1, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14
5, 9, 10, 12, 13
3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
Outlay of $3,600

Eagle Farm
1, 5
1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15
2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18
2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 14
Outlay of $1,320

Morphetville
Field (11 selections - hope an outside wins)
1, 4, 7, 8, 9,10, 11, 12
2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13
Outlay of $4,752

Total outlay of $11,912.

michaelg 15th December 2012 02:31 PM

Today's remaining quaddies:

Stawell
6, 8
4, 5, 7, 8
2, 5, 6, 8,10, 11
1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 13
Outlay of $336

Bathurst
1, 2, 6, 8
1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 11
Outlay of $1,344

Ascot
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
Field (16 selections)
2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11
Outlay of $8,448

Total outlay $10,128
Total outlay for today's qualifying quaddies $22,040.

If any horse of any leg of any quaddie is having its first-ever race then I omit that quaddie.

Lord Greystoke 17th December 2012 08:30 AM

Had an interesting result on Sat with a modified verion of the lg1 hedge clipper.

Have dubbed it "Short Back n Sides", results as follows (4 Quads / 16 legs)

lg1: 100% SR - Out 12,499 In 4,174
sBs: 88% SR - Out 819 In 4,174 (Tatts: Rosehill & M'ville)

Might whip up something on main Quaddy thread but Sat only.

LG

Try Try Again 17th December 2012 12:33 PM

Hi LG,

What paramaters are you using to "clip" the quaddie legs?

It has always been a problem I have encountered that the cost gets prohibitive, even with the flexibet option.

Lord Greystoke 17th December 2012 01:14 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Hi LG,

What paramaters are you using to "clip" the quaddie legs?

It has always been a problem I have encountered that the cost gets prohibitive, even with the flexibet option.


In layman's terms: what probably won't win gets clipped, using a consistent approach across all legs. There is not a method in heaven or on earth which can predict a roughie getting up + which one imho !

LG

Lord Greystoke 17th December 2012 01:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Had an interesting result on Sat with a modified verion of the lg1 hedge clipper.

Have dubbed it "Short Back n Sides", results as follows (4 Quads / 16 legs)

lg1: 100% SR - Out 12,499 In 4,174
sBs: 88% SR - Out 819 In 4,174 (Tatts: Rosehill & M'ville)

Might whip up something on main Quaddy thread but Sat only.

LG


PS sBs showed a 35.1% return at level stakes over the 16 legs, which gave me the most joy (oddly enough)

Lord Greystoke 17th December 2012 02:07 PM

Correction to last post - s/be 20.2% at level stakes i.e. missed out on 2 legs. Still pleasing however.

LG

Try Try Again 17th December 2012 03:23 PM

Thanks LG,

That makes sense but isn't funny what I think can't win you may think it can - personal opinion.

Lord Greystoke 17th December 2012 04:02 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Thanks LG,

That makes sense but isn't funny what I think can't win you may think it can - personal opinion.


Sorry, T2 - you lost me here??

LG

evajb001 17th December 2012 05:44 PM

I think what TTA is getting at is with shaving down your selections your using personal opinion rather then any filters on what can or can't win. So TTA is just its funny how what one person thinks can win another will think it can't - guess that comes back to the mentality of sports and horse betting, there's always two sides to a bet.

Lord Greystoke 17th December 2012 06:07 PM

Yes, all good points you make there TO (I geddit now, T2).

My hedge muncher here runs on a mix of wisdom and 'clean air' i.e. devoid of my own personal opinions, as it happens.

Cheers LG

michaelg 18th December 2012 12:59 PM

I looked at yesterday's quaddies, with the rules of no Maidens and in every leg every horse must have had at least one career start. Seeing I'm looking at 12 months performance (see below) I don't know how valid this rule is.

Backing the top half in the 12 months ratings as shown on D.Scott's worksheet, the quaddie was struck in only one of yesterday's three quaddies. For the total outlay of slightly over $3,000 the return was $12,000 (the Dubbo quaddie). I haven't had time to research this method but have been able to identify today's selections, which are:


Muswellbrook

2, 3, 6, 7, 8
1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 12
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13
Outlay of $1,008

Townsville

1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8
1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
2, 3, 7, 8
1, 3, 5, 7, 10
Outlay of $720.

Because of the interest in quaddies on this forum I decided to post this even though it might immediately crash in a spectacular way.

Lord Greystoke 18th December 2012 01:07 PM

Looks v interesting michaelg, most stuff from you is however!

Any chance you could re-post (Ctrl V / C etc) onto the 'Query on Quadrella thread given its meaty substance??

Cheers LG

michaelg 18th December 2012 03:47 PM

Hi, L.G.

Unfortunately not being familiar with computers I tried to do it but am unable to do so.

The first leg at Muswellbrook was not won.


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