Hello everyone. I'm feeling really bad that I haven't been able to grasp POT!!! Too busy getting those two Big Winners at Brisbane last Saturday,I guess. Something else I can't get a grasp of is, why you have'nt set BJ (see post,4 down) straight that POT is LONG-TERM not a WEEKLY thing. In his example we have another misguided POT believer informing me that you can compound your bank, using POT (even at a measely 1%) into the heavens. Is it feasible? If we use the 52-week POT method then a $1000 bank turned into $1520 by betting $1000 per week is,let me see: $52000 turned over, earns $520 is ....1% POT!!!!(fantastic). After thrashing this all out just last week (on the "POT thread") one thing emerged: If you wish to win more ACTUAL money you'll have to INCREASE your bets eventually (ie if BJ makes 1% regularly p.w. on $1000 wagered and now wants $20 p.w. he MUST increase the weekly betting amount to $2000 p.w to double his "constant" 1% into 20 REAL dollars). Maybe he will wait until his $1000 bank grows to $2000 before doing this,following which any sustained set-back ( at $20 per bet) for a few weeks may destroy the compounding effect dramatically (or the bank itself).
What is even more interestlng is that Shoto thinks I'm confounding POT with ROI when it's (again) BJ (sorry to be picking on you) who's actually doing that. See his post and you'll immediately realize that it's THE END RESULT he's interested in. When $1000 becomes $1520 he's made 52% and KNOWS IT!!! When I put $1000 in Com Bank shares at $25 and they get to $36 (plus 8% divs, seen as a % of the BUYING price) then I too have made.....52%!! I do not have to know that thousands of miniscule transactions (analogous with OUR individual bets) have taken place:that the entire cash reserves of the bank have been lent out and gone round 10 times (that's POT!!). Reality is (please see Financial Section of any paper) that many many companies have quadrupled and more in two years (the WHOLE market is 60% ahead+ divs). What started all this debate was SQUIRTER reckoning "better than bank interest" is an acceptable performance (5.5% = 0.1% per week compound). Why arent you all giving HIM a serve for such a LOW "satisfaction" threshhold??? see his insightful comment on me,just below.

BJ, surely your example between stock market and punting is a bit askew.

Your example has punting turning over $52000.00 for the 1% profit. Your example of the stock market only has a turnover of $1000.00, of course the punting is going to make more money. It has a turnover 52 times greater.

If you had invested the same amount on the stock market you would have made more.
You have to compare apples with apples.

Granted you would have to have the $52000.00 up front for the stock market, whereas you can continually recycle your winnings on the punt. Just another reason why it is a difficult go to compare one to the other.

luckily there is no reason why a punter who cant fill in a betting ticket has any less chance of finding a winner than the dedicated form student with stat's up to his eyeballs.

while you were enjoying your winners in brisy, punter, is was having a similar experience out at kembla.

did my obviously superior understanding of POT make any difference to how much cash lined my pockets at 5pm that afternoon? no, but there were some tidy figures when i updated the spreadsheet come sunday. :)

& btw, i am taking the ********

Top Rank. As you might be aware ,many major companies pay over 5% divs per year in two six-monthly slices (with tax credits of another 2% approx) This means on a $1000 up-front investment you get about $35 in,say, March and another $35 in September. Usually the share price falls immediately the dividend is paid(by 3.5%) reflecting the now-missing divvy, but generally recovers shortly thereafter. At that point you can sell your shares and get your $1000 back (allow them to rise a little to cover .the incredibly tiny, brokerage) while keeping the 3.5% div. Due to the Taxation laws with the Tax Credit you, effectively can buy and sell shares SIX times per year,getting the divs plus Credits each time, an effective return of about 23%, not taking Capital Gain into account. Should you NOT be interested in the Tax Credits, you can scoop the divs AS OFTEN AS YOU LIKE (ie by rotating from one stock to another), limited however by your ability to select shares which will QUICKLY recover from the "ex-dividend" factor (ie the lost 3.5% on dividend payday). It's feasible to get about 40-50% like this BUT the capital gain is really the bonus. When Westpac was collapsing about 14 years ago I bought at $3 and then groaned as they fell to almost $2 (rather like a run of outs at the track before the winners arrive!) They (Westpac) then started recovering (consistently) until I seriously wanted to sell at $14 but was talked out of it. Now they are around $20 and paying 8% (with the Credits). Again I'm mulling Selling over. Bear in mind that 8% is about $1.50, but I got the shares at $3 (so MY divs are 50%) My "$1000 bank" is,with divs reinvested, over $10000, now. Similar story with Aristocrat, the pokie machine manufacturer (world leader): under a buck less than 2 years ago and over $10 today. Or Caltex, or CSR or (what about ASX themselves???).
This is not a "hey, look at me" ******** (well maybe,partially!!) but more a reflection on the appropriateness of accepting very elevated risk (in punting) and breaking your head (doing "the form" etc etc etc) for "bank interest" a la Squirter (post 21) or for tiny returns (with HIGH risk) a la BJ. If you're going to punt, the returns have to be VERY high to justify the work and effort involved. When there are other, much more predictable, safer "bets" around no other aim makes sense!!.Thats all folks!! Looking forward to a bollocking, as always, P57

Punter 57,

It was a bit along winded ol' mate but its all good. I don't see any good reason for a forthcoming bollocking.

So how's the system going Mo?

P57, all I was trying to say is that you have an edge on the punt you can make more with a minimal outlay.

If you have $10,000 to spare you can make more on the punt than with shares because it is possible to turnover so much more money.

Personally I started with $2,000 and in 2 months have turned over $150,000.
That means over a year I would turnover about $1 million. If I can return a 1% POT then that would be a hell of a lot better than a 10% profit on $2000 invested in stocks...
Yes you would be much better off just investing that million dollars on the stock market, but........

I am in no way making any claims about making any money or having an edge, just providing a point. I do realise the difference in comparison to shares and horses, and apples and oranges and all that.

And yes, I agree the more profit the better, but my initial aim is just to make a profit.

I'd love to share the good news with you DG,but there ain't none.
Perhaps I need to subscribe to someone elses ratings that work!
Got a new system happenning in the football arena!