I'm going to start with a clean slate in my punting ventures from today.
And this is my story.
I suppose the biggest question that needs to be answered is WHY GAMBLE?.
Seems a bit like "Why have sex when you don't wish to procreate?".
IT FEELS GOOD WHEN YOU'RE DOING IT.
Especially the bit at the end.
Unfortunately for me,the bit at the end comes in dribs and drabs rather than a full blown flood.Punting wise I mean!.Actually,come to think of it...?
So after 30 years or so of tackling punting,I'm going to try a new assault on the thoroughbreds.Punting wise I mean.
And I shall look at the bit at the end and attempt to increase the amount and frequency of the output.
How?.By going over my predictions and trying to modify my methods rather than the same old,same old.
First attempt will be by giving each horse in a race a percentage point relative to its perceived chances.Nothing new there.But where I hope to get productive is in the price I'm willing to accept.
It seems those professional raters back every horse at 20% more price available than their prediction.I am going to use a sliding scale.

I will take 87% on a perceived 100% chance.Or $1.15 is my lowest possibly acceptable price.
38% will do me on a 50% chance.Or 13-8 will do me on an assessed even money chance.
20% needs 11%.Or 8 to 1 about a 4 to 1 chance.
10% chance needs 4%.Or 25-1 about a 9-1 shot.
And $80 needed on a perceived $20 chance.
This will keep me away from the rougher selections which hardly ever win and keep more interest in the shorter ones only.Got to keep those satisfying end bits coming.

Anyway it all boils down to,"Hey dudes,look at me..".
Stay tuned.

Seems to me that it is not particularly difficult to come up with the winner as being top-rated.But to rate it at a price that is freely available is!
A lot of time can be wasted deciding whether a runner should 20-1 or 100-1.I have noticed now that that time is much better spent looking closer at the top 3 or 4 selections and getting them as accurate as possible.

Second thing I have noticed is that if a horse hasn't run for over 21 days,there must be a reason.It makes a big difference to success if that reason can be found.

So 2 new things for the newbie to allow for in his analysis and 2 reasons why I will only improve.

This is how my system is developing.

Starting from the bottom weight,put the runners in quickly considered finishing order,from first to last.
The last horse gets a rating of 1.
Then after looking closer at the form details,give each runner a rating compared to the runner below it,working your way up from the bottom of the list towards the top.Try to give ratings that convert to prices that look about right.
Once it looks like it can prove worthwhile ,I'll chuck it in a Excel attachment.

After 2 days of analysis,I realize I'm having problems knowing thr difference between a win in a Donald Maiden and a 5th beaten 2 lengths in a Symour Class 1.
And also whether a horse is a stayer or a sprinter.
Copping a bath at the moment,BUT,I'll be back!

Um, isn't a system supposed to be systematic?
Sounds like all you are trying to do is read the form.

Are you taking into account barrier trials and other such considerations because if you aren't I would think you are pushing ********e uphill with no shoes on....

Yes,I believe you need to read the form to find out the chances.
The system part is the amount,and whether,to bet.
More a staking system I suppose.

This is the latest idea.

I wish to make $150 per week,betting win only or possibly each/way.And I wish to make a minimum of 15% om my investment.
So to satisfy these two criteria,I need to invest $1000 per week.
Now what is known as the "comfort factor" for me is a bet of $50.The largest individual bet that I can feel comfortable with.So to make the tally of $1000 per week,with maximum bets of $50,I need to have at least 20 bets per week,more likely about 30.
I would suggest that there are about 30 meetings available every week.So I will have one bet for every meeting available on the day.
To find which races I will attempt to beat,I add up all the API numbers,then divide by the number of runners.The highest figured races will be my betting races.
I will try rating a price for each winning chance and wager according to my rated price.But only if the available price satisfies this formula:

Needed price($)=(rated price)^2 x 0.15 plus the (rated price).

Will try a better class of race.
This API total divided by the number of runners idea has merit.Will now try that the result must equal greater than 2.
Hopefully that will keep me away from the poor quality animals in the poor quality races.

G'day Mo, I mean this in a nice way and I appreciate what you're trying to do here but you are one crazy punter! Rather than trying to make$150 a week, why don't you see if you can get 5% POT over six months before you invest any serious dough? It would make me feel better at least! Good luck!

You mean just pretend to bet?
No way.I'm tough.I'm used to losing anyway.I've done it all my life!
Plus what if a 20 to 1 shot gets up tomorrow and I was just testing.
Thanks for your concern.Logical but for me,a puntaholic,impossible!