The first round of both Auckland and Sydney have provided plenty of upsets. Sydney lived up to its historical past as the 2nd worst venue for seeds in round 1 by losing 4 of 7. Round 2 for both Auckland & Sydney are average with 70% of seeds winning.

I am on the following today:
Blake bt Moya $1.62 - 1 unit
Davydenko bt Calleri $1.36 - 1 unit

These plays are against Moya and Calleri in age situations that are 215-81 5% and 171-68 20%.

Niemenen bt Goldstein -$1.28 - .5 unit
This play is against Goldstein and qualifies in a 171-68 20% age situation.

Ferrer bt Sluiter - $1.55 - .5 unit
Wawrinka bt A. Martin $1.57 .5 unit
These plays are against Sluiter and Martin in age/form decline situation which is 62-15 29%.

Hewitt bt Melzer - $1.22 - 1.5 units
Hewitt qualifies in a seeded player situation that is 391-67 8% and gets a bonus being seed 1 which qualifies him in a 204-33 11% situation. I haven't placed this as screwy huey is once again having stomach problems. I lost heaps on him in the past with his various ailments and am reluctant to send good money after bad. I will watch the news reports and if I do bet it will be with a place like Centrebet which refunds if the match doesn't get to a played out result.

See, most of us are on similiar plays so hope were all smiling at the end of the day.

Karla

Easy 6-4 6-3 for Ferrer. Have no idea why he was 1.58, is Sluiter that much better the Luzzi he played yesterday. Can't complain! Would have gone bigger then 2 units if i hadn't been 0-2 for the week. That's 1-2 now lets hope Rochus and Murray make it 3-2

Moya withdraws from Sydney International

Bet Void

That's the second time in two days

ATP 12th Jan - Syd Int
 

James Blake over Arnaud Clement @ $1.364

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Match Writeup

Good luck lads
Betsy

2 out of 3. Not bad just need to learn where to put my money as i always seem to put too much on the losers.

Im on Blake too Betsy

Hi everyone

A good day yesterday with all 5 selections getting up. I finally went with Hewitt as the tempreture dropped to a nice 25, they showed Huey on TV and the commentator said he looked fine and his price started to drop at Betfair.

That's one of the problems with presenting a system as sometimes I have to leave it to the last moment.

Betsy gave real good advice about not backing anything under $1.25. I agree. Because I follow a system where the value is in the system not in individual matches I do play the shorties but if you are a value punter, go with Betsy's advice.

Hewitt bt Seppi - $1.15. 2.5 units
Seppi got beat in q/f last week to a simialar player in Malisse 6-0 6-1 and I hope for this to be the case again. Hewitt qualifies as a database (DB) selection which is 222-54 (7.5%) and a subset which is 153-25 (10.3)%. He also quallifies in a situation based on seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%) and a subset which is 204-33 (11%). Seppi qualifis in a play against him based on his upset win against Blake and then bad effort against Malisse which is 66-3 (17.7%). A bad value bet but too many situations for me to ignore.

Blake bt Clement. $1.32 1.5 units
I'm on the Blake bandwagon as a DB bet. Blake also qualifies in the seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%).

couple more in a minute

congratulations of 5/5 thats great. youve convinced me on hewitt. he is short but could be shorter he is 1.18 for me

..........continued

Sorry the missus wanted to read e-mails.

I don't think Blake's match will be that easy as Clement will always fight.

The next 2 selections are from my "dogs" situations. I didn't present these last year but will go ahead this year. They don't have a very high strike rate but because of the value produce a profit.

In Auckland the #1 and 2 seeds don't reach the final that often and this situation plays on that happening again. Where the DB percievs a fairly even situation on 2 seeds in q/f then go for an upset. The situation is 57-32 since January 2003 for a nice ROI of 19%.


O Rochus bt Ferrer $2.05 .5 unit. I have Ollie a 57% chance so their is a bit of value to go with the situation. He should be motivated to get to final again here.

M Ancic bt Gonzalez $2.38 .5 unit. On most hardcourts the line would be the other way around but in Auckland the south american clay men seem to have the advantage. I have these 2 dead even and seek comfort that Ancic has beaten Gonzo on clay. However Ancic will have to be in rythmn on serve and Gonzo will have to miss a lot of attempted winners. The price of Gonzalez is coming in so I haven't placed a bet yet hoping the price will go out a bit more for Mario.

There is a situation on Davydenko but I'll have to wait to see what the early game produces. In Sydney, the rain is clearing and should be a nice day with a top of 27.


good luck with your plays

Karla

2 for me tonight

Hewitt to beat Seppi 1.18
Blake to beat Clement 1.33

Hoping to regain a bit on 2 matches that look certain winners, espeically Hewitt.

YTD: 13-4, +3.46 Units (ROI 18.31%, SR 76.5%)
 

Blake wins in three sets, 3-6 6-1 6-4

Moving
 

Hey guys,

From now on I will be posting my ATP Tennis plays exclusively on the Triple Threat Sports Forum

http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/index.php

The owners of the site are extremely happy with my ATP Betting records and will more than likely place my selections in the Experts Area.

I urge you all to register/sign up at this forum, it is ever expanding and covers a wide variety of sports. All the posters are insightful and always more than willing to help. The quality of the cappers posting on this forum is second to none and I'd love to see you guys posting there.

Karla, I have spoken to the owners about your quality insights into ATP tennis and they are interested in seeing you posting your selections in the forum.

Thanks to all you guys who have made my time here an enjoyable one

I hope to see you at the Triple Threat Sports Forum, my username is Breaker.

ATP Tour Record '06: 13-4, +3.46 Units (ROI 18.31%, SR 76.5%)

Good luck and happy punting
Breaker

Referral = Breaker
 

I forgot to add, if you sign up at the Triple Threat Forum could you please put my username (Breaker) in the referral section.

Cheers
Breaker

O Rochus over Nieminen @ 1.83 (Bet365)

Rochus destroyed a top player is Ferrer dropping just the 2 games in 50mins. Nieminen is a talented, yet inconsistent player capable of troubling the best when they don't perform. Yet Rochus is clearly in form and his game isn't too dissimilar to Nieminen's but more consistent. Rochus got to the final last year and will want to better that this year and a 3-1 head to head in Rochus' favour with 2 on hard courts is yet another reason to back him. So 1.82 is a great bet for a fully motivated, consistent player against a more tempreamental player with the AUS Open around the corner.

Blake over Davydenko @ 1.82 Betfair

This match appeared a tight one to call, with most probably giving the advantage to Blake as he is slightly fresher having a walkover against Moya and is the slighty more explosive player with the capability to 'win' points rather then have his opponent 'lose' them. However, what makes this a solid bet is the 3-0 head to head in Blake's favour, all of which have been on hard courts (although all in the USA). Both had shock defeats last week, which is strange, especially for the ever consistent Davydenko who normally only looses to the top, elite players. On this form , Blake would appear to be one of them and should squeeze through this tight match.

Hi All

A good week going 8-0 before Mr "Blewitt" turned in one of the worse professional displays I have ever seen. Enough said. Very pleased to see the two "dogs" get up. Back to 0 for the week.

No plays for today

Good Luck - to you bobjoe.


Well betsy, very sad to see you leave the forum, good luck to you. I posted as an expert last year on "bettingadvice" and found it to be a unrewarding pain. Much rather talk to just a few nice people. Wait till you have a losing run and just watch the yanks get stuck into you.

I'll continue here and if there is no interest, go back to talking things over with the my dogs.

Karla

This forum isn't like that though, I'm stunned by the support you get even when you are losing. There is a no bashing policy so if anyone gives you any trouble they get warned and banned.

You don't have to post in the Experts Area, just the normal Tennis forum where I have been posting for the last few days. bobjoe, papyrus etc have made the journey over and seem to like the place, you should come too.

It's woth a look http://www.triplethreatsports777.co...isplay.php?f=24 :)

Thanks Betsy - I'll think it over

J Blake bt andreev - $1.40 1.5 units

Blake qualifies as a database pick which is 223-55 (7.0%) and qualifies in a seed/final situation which is 391-67 (8%) and is a nice 21-2 in finals. Blake has had 3 hard court final appearances recently for 1 win which was in Stolkholm at the end of 2005. For Andreev he is in his first hard court final. Blake has won his last 2 against Andreev in straight sets including the US Open in 2005

J Niemenen bt Ancic - $ 2.70 .5 unit
I have these 2 about equal and in this situation we go with the dog. This is the same situation that picked Ancic and Rochus earlier in the week and is now 59-32 for 20% ROI. The situation is also 9-2 in finals.
Niemenen has had no finals experience on hard court while Ancic strangely enough has lost both his hardcourt finals since 2003. Ancic lost to Arthurs and Moodie in 2005 both at $1.33. Niemenen beat Ancic at their only meeting but that was on clay. Lots to suggest that Ancic can lose this.

k

Decided to join Betsy at triple.


See you all over there.

K

Hey guys,

Since registering with the Triple Threat Sport Forum I have been able to establish an ATP room all to myself. It can be found at the following address: http://www.triplethreatsports777.co...isplay.php?f=59

It would be great to see you guys join in over there, registration is free, and the forum itself contains some of the best punters across the net, covering a wide variety of sports.

My current ATP record is listed below:

Hey guys - thought I'd come back to where the year began and update my year-to-date record and inform you of my relocation.

My current record is as follows:


ATP Betting Record 2006: 56-17, +11.40 Units (ROI +25.0%)

Wimbledon '06 Record: 7-1, +1.90 Units (ROI 49%)


I am currently posting primarily at Blogabet (http://betsy.blogabet.com) and TripleThreatSports777 as an e***** ATP Tennis punter. Feel free to join me at either location and share some thoughts etc about the current ATP season

Cheers
Breaker